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FFL: Week 7 | NFL: Week 7

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Jared Goff Oct 20 8:50pm ET
Jared Goff

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff delivered another strong performance in Week 7, helping lead the team to a 31-29 victory over the Minnesota Vikings. Goff was highly efficient, completing 22 of 25 passes for an 88% completion rate, accumulating 280 yards and two touchdowns. His accuracy and decision-making were on full display, keeping the Lions' offense moving throughout the game. Goff's impressive outing earned him a Top-5 fantasy QB finish for the week going into Sunday night, reinforcing his status as a reliable starter. The Lions will focus on a home matchup against the Tennessee Titans as Goff is a low-end QB1 heading into Week 8.

From RotoBaller

Tony Pollard Oct 20 8:50pm ET
Tony Pollard

Tennessee Titans running back Tony Pollard rushed 16 times for 61 yards, catching two passes for four yards on six targets in the 24-point loss at Buffalo. It was a disappointing afternoon for Pollard managers, as the former Cowboy could only muster 8.5 fantasy points with the backfield all to himself. Game script changed on a dime in this one, with the first half heavily favoring Pollard as the Titans took a 10-7 lead into the half. Tennessee was then outscored 21-0 over the next quarter and all but abandoned the run at that point. The most promising aspect of this one was that Pollard was second on the team in targets with six, a trend that should continue with how poor the downfield passing attack has been for Tennessee. The Detroit Lions and their stout run defense is on tap for Week 8.

From RotoBaller

Grant Calcaterra Oct 20 8:50pm ET
Grant Calcaterra

Philadelphia Eagles tight end Grant Calcaterra caught his lone target for a gain of five yards during the team's 28-3 win over the New York Giants. After having solid involvement last week and catching four targets for 67 yards in replacement of Dallas Goedert (hamstring) the third-year tight end saw just one target against New York. However, no receiver outside of A.J. Brown had a good day in a game where quarterback Jalen Hurts only had to throw the ball 14 times. Calcaterra was still on the field a ton and will face a much easier Cincinnati defense next week and an offense that can keep the game competitive. He will be on the streaming radar once again in Week 8.

From RotoBaller

Jahmyr Gibbs Oct 20 8:47pm ET
Jahmyr Gibbs

Dynasty | Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs had 116 rushing yards, four catches, 44 receiving yards and two touchdowns in a win against Minnesota. Dynasty Analysis: Gibbs took advantage of an early David Montgomery injury to post his best game of the season. While Montgomery did return to action, Gibbs carried the mail most of the day and showed just how talented he is. Unfortunately, this is going to be the way it goes with both in Detroit long-term. While it's great two have two premier running backs in reality, it's created a major buzzkill for dynasty managers. Still, Gibbs is a weekly play who can post games like this every week.

Chase Brown Oct 20 8:47pm ET
Chase Brown

Dynasty | Bengals running back Chase Brown had 44 rushing yards, two catches and nine receiving yards in a win against the Browns. Dynasty Analysis: More importantly, Brown had 17 touches and Zack Moss had just nine. This could represent a changing of the guard by the Bengals and while Moss has been pretty steady, Brown clearly looks like the more explosive option. Neither running back is going to be worth more than flex consideration unless the other one gets hurt, but Brown is certainly making some progress and his dynasty arrow is pointing up.

Cedric Tillman Oct 20 8:46pm ET
Cedric Tillman

Dynasty | Browns wide receiver Cedric Tillman had eight catches for 81 yards in a loss to the Bengals. Dynasty Analysis: With Amari Cooper now in Buffalo, Tillman had a whopping 12 targets on the day, trailing only the 14 from David Njoku. This is notable as Jerry Jeudy had just one catch on five targets today. We'll need to see more from Tillman moving forward but he should most certainly be on dynasty rosters and could have a big second half.

Keon Coleman Oct 20 8:46pm ET
Keon Coleman

Dynasty | Bills rookie receiver Keon Coleman had four catches for 125 yards in a win against Tennessee. Dynasty Analysis: Coleman came into the game with just 201 receiving yards on the year, so this was by far his best performance. With Amari Cooper commanding attention in a revamped passing game, this was a great sign for the future. Coleman is still a risky play, but he's looking more and more like a player progressing and proving his worth as a late first round rookie pick.

D.K. Metcalf Oct 20 8:46pm ET
D.K. Metcalf

Dynasty | Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf had four catches for 99 yards and a touchdown before exiting with a knee injury in Seattle's road win against Atlanta. Dynasty Analysis: Metcalf had a solid afternoon, but dynasty managers are deeply concerned after he left the sidelines on a cart with what the team later said was a knee injury. For what it's worth, Head Coach Mike Macdonald said at his post-game news conference that it doesn't look too bad and that Metcalf just banged it with another player. We'll see, but any loss of time for Metcalf would open up things for Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett. Stay tuned.

Bijan Robinson Oct 20 8:45pm ET
Bijan Robinson

Dynasty | Falcons running back Bijan Robinson had 103 rushing yards, three catches, 40 receiving yards and a touchdown in a loss against Seattle. Dynasty Analysis: The Seahawks defense has been awful over the past month, but this was still a step in the right direction for Robinson. Even better (and more importantly), Robinson had 24 touches and fellow running back Tyler Allgeier had just six. If that kind of timeshare continues, Robinson could post RB1 numbers each and every week. If there was a quick buy low window, it likely just shut.

Marcus Mariota Oct 20 8:45pm ET
Marcus Mariota

Dynasty | Commanders quarterback Marcus Mariota completed 18-of-23 passes for 205 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in a win against Carolina. Dynasty Analysis: Mariota added 34 rushing yards on the day to cap off a solid performance. While no threat to Jayden Daniels in the long-term, Mariota proved yet again to be a capable backup in the league. Dynasty managers could certainly consider picking him up should Daniels miss time as Washington suddenly seems like a very capable team.

Tyreek Hill Oct 20 8:43pm ET
Tyreek Hill

Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill had just a single 8-yard catch on two targets in Week 7 against the Indianapolis Colts, while running once for five yards.

Fantasy Spin: Hill's fantasy value has been destroyed with the QB turnstile since Tua Tagovailoa's concussion back in Week 2. Tyler Huntley, Tim Boyle, Skylar Thompson, etc. have not jelled well with Cheetah. The good news is that Tua is trying to make it back in Week 8 against the Arizona Cardinals, so a giant leap in fantasy value for Hill might be coming soon. Stay patient.

From TheHuddle

Ja'Lynn Polk Oct 20 8:40pm ET
Ja'Lynn Polk

Dynasty | Patriots rookie wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk failed to record a catch on three targets in a loss to Jacksonville. Dynasty Analysis: Polk now has just 78 yards and a touchdown on ten catches through seven games. The second rounder can't be blamed for everything as he had to deal with Jacoby Brissett for most of the season. Still, this is a slow start and a concern for those dynasty managers who burned a likely second round rookie pick on him. Patience will need to be exhibited here but Polk is light years away from lineups at the moment.

A.J. Brown Oct 20 8:40pm ET
A.J. Brown

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown caught all five of his targets for 89 yards and a touchdown during the team's 28-3 win over the New York Giants. The Eagles and Saquon Barkley utterly dominated the New York defense on the ground and only needed to throw 14 times. Brown accounted for half of the completions quarterback Jalen Hurts threw and tallied 78% of the team's total receiving yards. No other receiver on the team had more than 11 receiving yards in this game, and it was not because the Giants' defense was doing well stopping the pass, the Eagles just did not need to throw often. The star receiver gets the chance to torch a Cincinnati secondary that ranks towards the bottom of the league.

From RotoBaller

Mason Rudolph Oct 20 8:40pm ET
Mason Rudolph

Tennessee Titans quarterback Mason Rudolph went 25-of-40 for 215 yards, one touchdown and one interception in the Week 7 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Rudolph also fumbled three times in the 34-10 defeat, losing one. With Will Levis nursing a shoulder injury sustained last week, Rudolph got the start and was mostly ineffective in a game where the Titans were actually leading at the half. The longtime Steelers backup led two scoring drives to put the Titans up 10-0 early in the second quarter, but from that point forward it was mostly stalled drives and off-target throws under pressure. With Levis likely out a few more weeks, Rudolph should continue to start for this Titans team that has looked like one of the worst in football through seven weeks. Up next is a trip to Detroit to take on the 5-1 lions.

From RotoBaller

DeVonta Smith Oct 20 8:40pm ET
DeVonta Smith

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith caught one of his two targets and lost two yards during the team's 28-3 win over the New York Giants. While this stat line is going to look terrible to those who did not watch this game, there is no real reason to panic here. The Eagles leaned heavily on running back Saquon Barkley in this game and he tallied 187 total yards. Quarterback Jalen Hurts only needed to attempt 14 passes and all of the starters were out of the game in the early fourth quarter. It would have been nice to see the former Heisman winner get more of the target pie with such a low volume of pass attempts, but this was a week we can move on from because of the heavy Barkley reliance. Smith will still be considered a WR2 when the Eagles take on the Cincinnati Bengals.

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Brian Thomas Jr. Oct 20 8:39pm ET
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dynasty | Jaguars rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr had five catches for 89 yards and a touchdown in a win against the Patriots. Dynasty Analysis: The Jaguars have been bad, but you can't blame Thomas, who now has 30 catches for 513 yards and four touchdowns through seven games. Thomas routinely makes big plays and while Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville offense have had their troubles, the fact he's been this steady bodes very well for his future. Thomas is a solid hold and has solidified his first round rookie draft pick pedigree.

Raheem Mostert Oct 20 8:33pm ET
Raheem Mostert

Miami Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert rushed 11 times for 50 yards in Week 7 against the Indianapolis Colts, and he was not targeted in the pass game while he was credited with one lost fumble.

Fantasy Spin: Mostert is starting to round back into form, posting 4.5 yards per carry in his second game back after a month-long absence due to injury. As long as De'Von Achane remains healthy, Mostert's fantasy ceiling is a bit limited. And, the QB situation has been a mess since Week 2. Treat Mostert is more of a WR3 or flex fantasy option in most leagues heading into Week 8.

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Josh Allen Oct 20 8:33pm ET
Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen completed 21 of his 33 passes for 323 yards and two touchdowns in a 34-10 win over the Tennessee Titans in Week 7.

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Jonnu Smith Oct 20 8:33pm ET
Jonnu Smith

Miami Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith registered seven receptions for a game-high 96 yards and a touchdown on seven targets in Week 7 against the Indianapolis Colts.

Fantasy Spin: Smith has racked up 12 receptions for 158 yards and the TD on 15 targets in the past two games. He has posted low-end TE1 kind of numbers for fantasy managers in the past two games. He'll look to keep it rolling in Week 8 against the visiting Arizona Cardinals, and there is a chance he gets Tua Tagovailoa back from a concussion, too.

From TheHuddle

Kenneth Gainwell Oct 20 8:30pm ET
Kenneth Gainwell

Philadelphia Eagles running back Kenneth Gainwell took 13 carries for 56 yards and took his lone reception for 11 yards during the team's 28-3 win over the New York Giants. This was the most involved the 25-year-old had been this season, with most coming in the final 10 minutes of the fourth quarter when most Eagles starters were pulled. Since the addition of Saquon Barkley, Gainwell has had just one game of more than two carries coming into this game. He also shared carries with rookie Will Shipley down the stretch of this game, and would likely be in a timeshare if anything ever happened to Barkley. He can be safely left on waivers in redraft leagues.

From RotoBaller