RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 11
Baltimore Ravens running back Justice Hill has struggled to produce over the last few weeks. The 27-year-old had a couple big fantasy performances, but has mostly been quiet this season. Hill has been barely involved in the rushing game, so his best chance to do damage is in the receiving game. Fellow back Keaton Mitchell figures to be in the mix for the Week 11 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. It's hard to imagine Hill having a significant role in the offense with Derrick Henry healthy. Hill is still worth stashing in certain formats, but won't be a starting option for Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (leg) has been ruled out ahead of the Week 11 matchup against the Buffalo Bills. Pacheco continues to work his way back from a broken leg he suffered in Week 2. He was limited in practice this week, so it sounds like he's trending in the right direction. The expectation is that Pacheco will return in Week 12 against the Carolina Panthers. This would give the young back a plus matchup for his first game back on the field. It's uncertain if the team plans to put him on a snap count if he plays next week. Until then, Kareem Hunt will continue being the lead back in KC for at least one more week.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey has taken a value hit after his hot start to the season given the current state of the offense without quarterback Dak Prescott (hamstring). Aubrey's chances to score points are limited with the offense's recent struggles, and that should not change ahead of Monday night's matchup with the Houston Texans. He drilled two field goals last week against Philadelphia, scoring the Cowboys' only points in the game. Look elsewhere for a kicker in Week 11 given Aubrey's low ceiling.
From RotoBaller
The Dallas Cowboys' defense has been one of the worst units in the league this season, even after getting linebacker Micah Parsons back last week. They surrendered 34 points to Philadelphia last week and are averaging 34.5 points given up per game in the previous four games. They play Houston on Monday night in what is a perfect get-right game for an offense that is getting healthy with receiver Nico Collins expected to return to action. Even after stuffing the stat sheet with five sacks, a forced fumble, and an interception last week, the Dallas defense should be avoided until proven otherwise.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans wide receiver Tyler Boyd (back) appears to be trending in the right direction ahead of the Week 11 matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. Boyd was a late addition to the injury report as he was added on Saturday due to a back issue. It sounds like the organization is hopeful that Boyd can play, but he hasn't done much on the field lately anyway. Boyd hasn't drawn a target since Week 8 and is barely on the fantasy radar for Week 11. If he sits, Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine would see more involvement in the offense on Sunday.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush is entrenched as the starter for another week heading into Monday night's matchup with the Houston Texans. It is a mid-range matchup, as Houston ranks 19th against opposing quarterbacks, but Rush grades as a QB3 given how inefficient he has been this season and the potential of Trey Lance replacing him at any given moment. Rush was a full participant in practice all week with a neck injury. It is also worth noting that CeeDee Lamb (back) popped up on Saturday's injury report. While Mike McCarthy noted that Lamb's injury should not impact his game status, he still has a questionable tag which further downgrades Rush's outlook for Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott has been a non-factor from a fantasy standpoint in 2024, and that should not change ahead of Monday night's matchup with the Houston Texans. Head coach Mike McCarthy stated earlier this week that the backfield is no longer a committee with Rico Dowdle operating as the main back. This should result in even less touches for Elliott, who was already averaging just 7.6 touches per game. In an inefficient Dallas offense, Elliott is not a fantasy option this week.
From RotoBaller
Head coach Doug Pederson appears to be on the hotseat after a horrendous start to the season. The Jaguars are 2-8 heading into a tough matchup against the Detroit Lions in Week 11. It sounds like another loss on Sunday could mean Pederson is let go from his coaching duties. The Jaguars have a bye week after playing the Lions, so in theory that would be the best time to make a change if they were going to do it mid-season. Nothing seems to be going right in Jacksonville and they're a double digit underdog for Sunday's game against the Lions. To be fair, Mac Jones is under center for Trevor Lawrence (shoulder), but the team has played poorly no matter who is under center.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Jonathan Mingo is set to make his debut on Monday night against the Houston Texans. The second-year receiver was acquired from Carolina at the trade deadline. With CeeDee Lamb (back) listed as questionable, Mingo could see a larger role than he would typically have this week. Houston's defense is susceptible to receivers, although with the uncanny situation in Dallas there are not many intriguing options from a fantasy standpoint. Mingo should not be on the fantasy radar, although his usage on Monday night should be monitored.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson (illness) was uncertain coming into this game, but appears ready to go after getting in a full practice session on Friday. Fantasy managers might be hesitant to start Ferguson during this Week 11 matchup against the Houston Texans. The entire Cowboys offense has taken a hit with quarterback Dak Prescott (hamstring) being done for the season. Last week, Ferguson hauled in four of his five targets for 24 yards in the loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Cooper Rush hasn't looked good under center, so Ferguson shouldn't be considered anything more than a TE2.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Calvin Austin III saw a season-high six targets during last week's win over the Washington Commanders. Sadly, Austin was only able to haul in two of those six targets for 20 yards. It was nice to see Austin getting more targets in the offense, but that might not remain the case for long. Newly acquired wideout Mike Williams figures to have a bigger role in Week 11 after making his team debut last week. Austin has struggled throughout most of the season, so fantasy managers shouldn't take the risk and keep him on the bench until he gives reason to start him.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle (hamstring) is facing an uphill battle to play in Week 11's game against the Seattle Seahawks, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.
Fantasy Spin: Kittle had been listed as questionable on the injury report after participating in two of the team's three practice sessions during the week on a limited basis. If he is held out of action this afternoon, Eric Saubert would likely be San Francisco's starting tight end but he would not be a recommended fantasy option in any format.
From TheHuddle
Miami Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders is coming off his best performance of the season. Last week, Sanders knocked down all three field goal attempts, including a 50-yard kick in the win over the Los Angeles Rams. He also connected on both extra point attempts in what was a busy day for the veteran kicker. Sanders will once again have a plus matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 11. The Dolphins should have little issues moving the ball against the Raiders defense which should give Sanders plenty of chances. Fantasy managers in need of a kicker should take a look at Sanders this weekend.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans wide receiver John Metchie III put together his best game of his career during last week's loss over the Detroit Lions. Metchie hauled in five of his six targets for 74 yards and a touchdown in the three-point loss. The 23-year-old recorded a career-high in both receptions and receiving yards during this game. However, Metchie is likely to see a smaller role in the offense with Nico Collins (hamstring) returning for Monday's game against the Dallas Cowboys. The return of Collins means that Metchie will fall to third in the pecking order. Metchie was barely involved all season until last week, so fantasy managers shouldn't count on another strong performance in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson (personal, neck) is expected to travel to Los Angeles in order to play in Week 11's game against the Los Angeles Chargers, according to head coach Zac Taylor. He had been listed as questionable on the injury report because of a neck issue and a personal matter.
From TheHuddle
New York Jets WR Davante Adams (illness, wrist) is expected to play in Week 11's game against the Indianapolis Colts.
Fantasy Spin: Adams had been listed as questionable on the injury report after missing two practice sessions during the week, although he was a full practice participant Friday, Nov. 15. He has been targeted 24 times over the last two games and should see a decent workload again this afternoon. Adams can be a starting option in all fantasy formats.
From TheHuddle
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Jalen Tolbert has been quiet on the field over the last few weeks. The loss of quarterback Dak Prescott (hamstring) has downgraded this entire offensive unit. Last week, Tolbert hauled in three of his five targets for 14 yards in the loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. It's worth noting that Tolbert has seen five or more targets in four of his last five games. His involvement in the offense should remain steady especially with CeeDee Lamb (back) banged up heading into Monday's game against the Houston Texans. Fantasy managers shouldn't expect much from Tolbert with Cooper Rush under center for Dallas. Tolbert should be viewed as a low-end flex option for Week 11.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers tight end Eric Saubert is on the fantasy radar for Week 11 after ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that George Kittle (hamstring) is expected to be inactive Sunday. Kittle has only missed one other game this season, but in that contest, Saubert played 86 percent of the offensive snaps and caught two passes for 41 yards. While his production wasn't otherworldly, he clearly earned additional looks on offense, and that should remain true this Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks. Saubert finds himself ranking as a low-end TE2 at best.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets wide receiver Davante Adams (illness, wrist) was a full participant in practice Friday and is expected to play versus the Indianapolis Colts in Week 11, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Adams has 38 catches, 415 yards, and two touchdowns this year. This week, he ranks as a high-end fantasy WR2 tier against Indy.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson (personal, neck) has traveled to Los Angeles and is expected to play in Sunday's game against the Chargers, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The 29-year-old had been listed as questionable but is now trending in the right direction after the Bengals summoned him to travel separately and join them out west. Hendrickson has 28 tackles and 11 sacks so far this year, putting him near the must-start range in IDP formats.
From RotoBaller
