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FFL: Week 1 | NFL: Week 1

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Russell Wilson Sep 6 1:40pm ET
Russell Wilson

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson (calf), who left Thursday's practice after reporting what the team called calf tightness, was seen on the practice field on Friday. There have been conflicting reports on Wilson's status for the Week 1 regular-season opener on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported that Wilson's status is firmly up in the air, mainly because of how cautious the team's medical staff has been with Wilson's injury that he initially suffered in training camp. However, head coach Mike Tomlin said the team has no worries that the 35-year-old won't be available this weekend. The fact that Wilson is on the field on Friday is a good sign that he'll be able to suit up and make his Steelers debut. If Wilson is active, he'll be a midrange QB2 in an offense that lacks receiving talent for him to work with.

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DeAndre Hopkins Sep 6 1:40pm ET
DeAndre Hopkins

Tennessee Titans veteran wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (knee) is listed as questionable for the Week 1 regular-season opener on Sunday against the Chicago Bears, according to head coach Brian Callahan. Hopkins was limited in practice on both Wednesday and Thursday and will now be a game-time decision on Sunday morning. The good news for fantasy managers that are considering using the 32-year-old in their starting lineups as a WR4/flex this weekend is that offensive coordinator Nick Holz said on Thursday that the Titans expect Hopkins to have a big role on offense if he does suit up. Still, Nuk's questionable status makes him more of a shaky WR4/flex option entering Week 1 action. If he doesn't end up getting the green light on Sunday, it will mean more targets for Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, Treylon Burks and tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo.

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Pat Freiermuth Sep 6 1:30pm ET
Pat Freiermuth

Talks between the Pittsburgh Steelers and tight end Pat Freiermuth on a long-term contract extension are progressing with the Week 1 regular-season opener right around the corner on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons, according to sources. The Steelers are trying to get Freiermuth signed before Sunday's kickoff. With offensive coordinator Arthur Smith now in the Steel City, the 25-year-old Freiermuth is expected to become a much bigger part of the offense in 2024 and beyond, even though quarterback Russell Wilson (calf) hasn't traditionally targeted the position all that much. Mainly given the lack of Pittsburgh's receiving depth behind WR1 George Pickens, analysts believe that if he stays healthy, Freiermuth should be the second-most targeted pass-catcher this year. Freiermuth lines up as a high-end TE2 for fantasy managers in Week 1.

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Josh Downs Sep 6 1:20pm ET
Josh Downs

Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen has officially ruled wide receiver Josh Downs (ankle) out for the Week 1 regular season contest on Sunday versus the division-rival Houston Texans. Things had been trending this way all week as Downs was unable to practice due to a high-ankle sprain that he suffered in August. The 23-year-old worked off to the side in practices this week, though, and appears to be getting close to a return, so it's possible he may be able to make his 2024 debut in Week 2 at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers. With Downs officially out this weekend, it will make both rookie Adonai Mitchell and Alec Pierce a bit more attractive as DFS sleepers behind WR1 Michael Pittman Jr. The 21-year-old Mitchell was selected with the 52nd overall pick back in April in the second round. He has the ability to line up inside or outside and should give fantasy managers a bit more upside than Pierce.

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Mike McCarthy Sep 6 1:20pm ET
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The Dallas Cowboys plan on committing to their running game in 2024. "We will be good running the football and that's because we're going to commit to it," head coach Mike McCarthy said on Friday. Dallas' backfield looks like their biggest weakness on offense heading into the 2024 campaign after Tony Pollard left in free agency. As things stand right now, veteran Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle project as co-starters at the RB position, with second-year back Deuce Vaughn serving as the No. 3. Veteran Dalvin Cook was recently signed for additional depth, but he'll have to work his way to the active roster off the practice squad. McCarthy could play the hot hand between Elliott and Dowdle, but the early belief is that Dowdle is going to lead the Cowboys' backfield in touches when all is said and done. Dowdle lines up as more of an upside play than Zeke, who is likely to be more touchdown-dependent.

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Ja'Marr Chase Sep 6 1:10pm ET
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Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase has been in the headlines often in the lead-up to Week 1 of the regular season this Sunday against the New England Patriots, mainly because of his high-profile contract stand-off with the team. Chase said that Friday is his deadline for a long-term contract extension to be completed, but he also things a deal is within striking distance. Even if a new deal isn't reached by Friday, the All-Pro pass-catcher said he'd be willing to play in 2024. In terms of whether he'll play this weekend in the season opener, though, Chase has labeled himself a "game-time decision" and said he'd likely be limited if he does suit up. Not only does this make Chase a much more shaky WR1 in fantasy in Week 1, but it puts a dark cloud over the entire Cincy offense with wideout Tee Higgins (hamstring) also looking potentially questionable to play. We may not have a clear picture on Chase's and Higgins' availability until Sunday morning.

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Tee Higgins Sep 6 1:10pm ET
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Updating a previous report, Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (hamstring) tweaked his hamstring at practice on Thursday, according to head coach Zac Taylor. The head coach said "we'll see" in terms of Higgins' availability for Week 1 on Sunday against the New England Patriots. Higgins wasn't seen at the portion of practice open to the media on Friday and he's now trending toward a questionable tag on the final injury report. With Ja'Marr Chase (holdout) claiming himself a game-time decision for the season opener, too, it's possible the Bengals could be without both of their top two receivers this weekend. Chase and Higgins should be in fantasy lineups if they are active, but their Week 1 stock is trending down. If one or both of them are inactive against the Pats, it will open the door for much bigger roles for receiver Andrei Iosivas and tight end Mike Gesicki, among others. Stay tuned.

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Matt Gay Sep 6 1:00pm ET
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Indianapolis Colts kicker Matt Gay (hernia) was not seen at Friday's practice, according to James Boyd of The Athletic. This is not a great sign for the 30-year-old who has not logged one practice, which puts his status for Week 1 in danger. Gay underwent a sports hernia procedure after the team's final preseason game during the final week of August. If Gay cannot suit up on Sunday, rookie Spencer Shrader will likely serve as the No.1 when the Colts take on the Houston Texans. Gay had one of the worst seasons of his career last fall as he posted a mere 80.5% on field goal attempts, which was a start drop compared to the strong 93.3% he held in 2022. Fantasy managers looking to stream a kicker this weekend should not look to adding Shrader, who could be making his NFL debut on Sunday.

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Josh Downs Sep 6 12:50pm ET
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Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs (ankle) was seen doing individual work on Friday but did not participate in practice, according to James Boyd of The Athletic. The 23-year-old expressed on Wednesday that he feels "real close to returning." While he has not officially been ruled out for the season opener on Sunday, it is not promising that he did not participate in team practices during the week. Fantasy managers should pay close attention to any further updates regarding Downs' status as we approach the weekend. Downs enjoyed a nice rookie season as he caught 68 passes for 771 yards and two scores. If Downs happens to suit up for the season opener, he should be considered a low-end flex play in most leagues as he will compete for targets with Michael Pittman Jr. and rookie Adonai Mitchell.

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Ja'Marr Chase Sep 6 12:40pm ET
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Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (holdout) told the media on Friday that he considers himself a game-time decision for Sunday and will be "limited" if he does play, according to Charlie Goldsmith of the Enquirer. Chase returned to practice on Wednesday after being held out of practice due to contract negotiations. While it is a promising sign to have seen Chase at practice over the past three days, he still considers himself a game-time call before Sunday's season opener. Fantasy managers should continue paying close attention to updates regarding the 24-year-old's status. Earlier on Friday, the No.2 receiver, Tee Higgins (hamstring), was not seen at practice. If both Chase and Higgins happen to suit up against the New England Patriots over the weekend, fantasy managers could expect both to play in a limited capacity, which may open more targets for Andrei Iosivas. However, no matter his capacity, Chase should be locked into all lineups if he plays.

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Jalen Ramsey Sep 6 12:20pm ET
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Miami Dolphins cornerback Jalen Ramsey signed a massive three-year extension totaling $72.3M which makes him the highest-paid cornerback in the sport, according to Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network. This deal was negotiated by David Mulugheta of Athletes First. The 29-year-old now once again sits as the highest-paid cornerback just days after Patrick Surtain of the Denver Broncos received his first NFL extension, which put him in the top spot for only a few days. Ramsey was limited to just ten games of NFL action last season but still made his mark by intercepting three passes and making 22 total tackles. Ramsey is currently battling a hamstring injury and is in danger of missing the season opener. Fantasy managers playing in an IDP league should continue to monitor the 29-year-old's status entering the weekend.

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Pete Werner Sep 6 12:10pm ET
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The New Orleans Saints' defense and special teams have one of the strongest Week 1 matchups as they face the Carolina Panthers. Although Pete Werner (shoulder), Willie Gay Jr. (back), and Marshon Lattimore (hip) are on the injury report, all three should be good to go on Sunday. New Orleans remains one of the stronger defensive units in the league, and performed strongly in both matchups with Carolina a season ago. Start the Saints' defense in Week 1.

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Rashee Rice Sep 6 12:10pm ET
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Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice will likely not miss any time during the 2024 season as he awaits a trial date for his felony charges of street racing, according to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. Florio reports that a guilty plea in 2024 is unlikely as Rice has no official trial date. Florio's sources express that since the trial will not happen until December (at the earliest), there is no urgency to reach a plea deal. Florio further emphasized that Rice will likely be suspended at some time, but it is hard to picture that he will miss time this season. Fantasy managers who have Rice on their team should continue to follow any updates regarding his legal issues throughout the season in case he does miss time. After being a league-winner down the stretch last season, the 24-year-old continued his breakout run by catching seven passes for 103 yards in the season opener on Thursday. Rice should continue to be a lineup lock for the foreseeable future as he is shaping up to be Patrick Mahomes' go-to option in the passing game.

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Juwan Johnson Sep 6 12:00pm ET
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New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson opened camp up on the PUP list, but is now fully recovered from his June foot surgery. Johnson had a down season a year ago, finishing as the TE26 overall. The veteran is available in many leagues, but could emerge as a consistent target earner behind Chris Olave. He grades as a low-end TE2 for Week 1, making him a very deep option, but the matchup with Carolina is not a great one for tight ends. Leave Johnson on the waiver wire for now, but monitor his Week 1 target share.

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Taysom Hill Sep 6 12:00pm ET
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New Orleans Saints tight end Taysom Hill showed in the preseason that he again will be used in the Saints' offense, creating headaches for fantasy managers. Hill is a high-end TE2 in Week 1 against Carolina, whose porous rush defense may open up opportunities for Hill to find the endzone. He likely won't pay off without a touchdown but is a solid tight end flier if your team lacks one of the top options. Hill's red zone usage will determine if he can be a viable fantasy option after he finished as the TE10 a season ago.

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Kyler Murray Sep 6 12:00pm ET
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Two new safeties, the loss of a key pass-rusher, and a linebacker on Injured Reserve. This is not the same Buffalo DST that finished third in fantasy football scoring a season ago. Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin take over for longtime starting safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. Pass rusher Leonard Floyd moved to the Bay Area and linebacker Matt Milano (bicep) will miss most of the season with an injury. The coaching staff won't have the luxury of easing new faces into the starting lineup. While the Arizona Cardinals didn't improve their defense, the offense should take a big step forward. Kyler Murray is another season removed from an ACL tear and they added a number-one receiver (Marvin Harrison Jr.) through the NFL Draft. Add in running back James Conner and tight end Trey McBride and this offense has more than enough firepower to put up points. The Bills are a middle-of-the-pack DST for Week 1. Fantasy managers should be able to find another streaming option (Seattle, Atlanta, or Cincinnati) to plug and play in Week 1.

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Blake Grupe Sep 6 12:00pm ET
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New Orleans Saints' second-year kicker Blake Grupe is an option at the kicker position heading into Week 1's tout with the Carolina Panthers. Grupe had a solid rookie season, converting 30-of-37 field goal attempts with a long of 55 yards. The Notre Dame product finished the season strong and will look to carry over his late-season success into Week 1. Carolina allowed the fourteenth-most points to kickers a season ago, making it a solid matchup for Grupe.

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Khalil Shakir Sep 6 11:50am ET
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The one returning Buffalo Bill at the position, Khalil Shakir could become the top wide receiver option for Josh Allen in 2024. While he may be the betting favorite, the target distribution in Buffalo is one of the biggest question marks for fantasy football. Shakir, Curtis Samuel, and rookie Keon Coleman were all selected late in fantasy football drafts. Shakir will operate primarily out of the slot, giving him a safe PPR floor against a shaky Arizona defense. It's hard to project Shakir or any other wideouts booming in the team's season opener. Allen will spread the ball around while they establish a hierarchy. Because of the uncertainty, Shakir can be left on benches as a WR4 in most league formats and sizes. But if there's one Buffalo wide receiver to start in Week 1, it's Shakir.

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Rashid Shaheed Sep 6 11:50am ET
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New Orleans Saints receiver Rashid Shaheed has been dealing with a foot injury over the past couple of weeks, but the third-year speedster avoided the injury report heading into Week 1's matchup against the Carolina Panthers. Shaheed could see a more consistent target share than he has in years past with Michael Thomas no longer on the roster, but he remains a boom-or-bust option until he proves otherwise. Against a Carolina defense that is favorable to the run game, Shaheed is best left on benches as a stash.

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Ja'Marr Chase Sep 6 11:50am ET
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Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase was spotted at practice on Friday ahead of the team's Week 1 matchup against the New England Patriots. Despite his lengthy training camp hold-in, Chase appears on track to play Sunday. However, Tee Higgins showed up on the injury report on Thursday with a hamstring injury. After being a limited participant on Thursday, Higgins wasn't out on the field at the start of Friday's practice. Going from a limited participant to a non-participant this late in the week likely means he won't play on Sunday. Jermaine Burton and Andrei Iosivas would benefit if Higgins misses Sunday's contest.

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