Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
San Francisco 49ers kicker Jake Moody went 0-for-2 on field goal attempts and 3-for-4 on extra points during Monday evening's loss to the Detroit Lions. Moody missed field goals from 51 and 58 yards out. This was also his first missed extra point of the campaign. Entering Monday night, he had held a disappointing 76.7% FG conversion rate. He has struggled from 50+ yards out all season, as he has gone 3-for-8 from this range. However, Moody has been perfect from within 40 yards out. This is a stark drop in production compared to the 84.05% FG conversion rate he posted in his rookie campaign last season. Given his struggles, fantasy managers should not view Moody as a viable streaming option in Week 18.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions wide receiver Allen Robinson II brought in his lone target for 21 yards during their victory over the San Francisco 49ers on Monday evening. Robinson's lone reception came in the third quarter. While the vast majority of the passing opportunities went to Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs, it is a positive sign for Robinson to see more targets than the presumed No.3 option, Tim Patrick. Robinson has now seen at least one target in two of his past three contests. However, given how often Jared Goff looks to his top pass-catching options, Robinson may only see a handful of targets in each game moving forward. As a result, fantasy managers should not view Robinson as a viable play in Week 18 and in any postseason competitions.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Joshua Dobbs was sharp in relief on Monday evening. He went 3-for-4 with 35 yards and added seven yards and a score on his lone rushing attempt. Dobbs came in to relieve Brock Purdy (elbow), who suffered an injury on their final offensive drive of the game. Dobbs connected with Jauan Jennings twice, once on a 15-yard strike, and the other on a nine-yard pass. His other completion went to his tight end, George Kittle, for 11 yards. Dobbs would then rely on his legs to punch in the seven-yard score in the red zone. When Purdy missed time earlier this season due to a shoulder injury, Brandon Allen was given the No.2 role; however, it appears that Dobbs now holds that spot on the depth chart. If Purdy cannot play in Week 18, Dobbs will likely get the starting nod and could be worth a look as a deep league streaming option and a value play in DFS against the Arizona Cardinals.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions running back Jermar Jefferson was given just three attempts during their victory over the San Francisco 49ers on Monday evening. However, all three attempts were within the San Francisco ten-yard line. With David Montgomery (knee) sidelined, Jahmyr Gibbs has been deployed as the workhorse option in this backfield, but with the Lions having little to play for regarding their position in the standings, they opted to give Gibbs occasional rest on Monday evening. While Gibbs still finished the game with 18 attempts and four targets, he would have likely been given this goal line work in a must-win situation. Instead, Jefferson was given some high-value touches but could not punch in any of them as he finished with just nine total yards. In addition, Jefferson saw four fewer carries than the presumed No.2 option, Craig Reynolds. Fantasy managers should expect Gibbs to take on a three-down role during Week 18 and throughout the entire postseason, leaving just a handful of attempts for Jefferson and Reynolds.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions wide receiver Tim Patrick did not see a target during Monday's victory over the San Francisco 49ers. Instead, quarterback Jared Goff relied on his top playmakers, Amon-Rs St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs, who all saw the vast majority of targets and attempts. This was Patrick's second time this season not seeing a single target in a game. Last weekend, during their victory over the Bears, Patrick saw just one pass his way but was unable to bring it in. This is a significant drop off compared to the solid 5.2 targets per game he saw during Weeks 11 through 15. During this stretch, he averaged 40.4 yards per game with 3.5 receptions per game. Being deployed as the clear No.4 option in this offense makes Patrick a difficult player to project weekly. Fantasy managers should continue to view him as a high-risk, desperation flex play heading into a Week 18 matchup against the Minnesota Vikings.
From RotoBaller
According to Adam Schefter of ESPN, the San Francisco 49ers are non-committal on quarterback Brock Purdy's status for Week 18. During Monday evening's loss to the Detroit Lions, Purdy suffered an elbow injury late in the game, which caused him to leave early during their final offensive drive. Schefter reported that Purdy is dealing with a nerve-related issue and will undergo further testing on Tuesday. With the team remaining non-committal, it is possible Purdy will not play in their final game on Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals. Before exiting, Purdy went 27-for-35 with 377 yards, three scores, two interceptions, and an additional 12 yards and the score on the ground. In relief, veteran Joshua Dobbs went 3-for-4 with 35 yards and a seven-yard rushing score on the final drive. Dobbs would likely get the start in Week 18 if Purdy is eventually shut down.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle had another valuable fantasy day in a 40-34 home loss to the Detroit Lions on Monday night. Kittle hauled in all eight of his targets for 112 receiving yards. For most Kittle managers, tonight caps off an excellent fantasy season. It marks his fourth 1,000-yard season and while he falls short of his 2022 career-high 11 touchdowns -- he's at eight with one game to play -- Kittle was incredibly dependable this season after a rollercoaster 2023 campaign. Excluding the two games missed due to injury, Kittle has come in below 10 half-PPR points just three times this season. He'll try to defend his 0.2-point lead as the season-long half-PPR TE1 over Las Vegas Raiders rookie phenom Brock Bowers when the 49ers travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals on Sunday in Week 18. He'll be a must-start for anyone still in redraft championships, but DFS players would be wise to consider the injury status of starting quarterback Brock Purdy (elbow).
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers rookie wide receiver Ricky Pearsall popped off with the best game of his young career during a 40-34 loss to the Detroit Lions at Levi's Stadium on Monday night. For the first time this season, Pearsall had quarterback Brock Purdy's eye throughout. The 24-year-old out of Florida finished with a co-team-high 10 targets and eight receptions for a team-leading 141 yards and a touchdown. He also took two carries for six yards. Pearsall flashed his first-round skills, including winning a strong-hand battle at the goal line against standout safety Brian Branch and a one-handed, toe-tapping tip and grab on the sideline. Anyone still playing meaningful fantasy football in Week 18 may be tempted to consider Pearsall as a FLEX option after his breakout game, but first should track the injury news of quarterback Brock Purdy (elbow) going into the team's game on Sunday at the Arizona Cardinals.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. returned to fantasy mediocrity in a 40-34 loss to the Lions in Santa Clara on Monday night. The 2021 First-team All-Pro took three carries for 16 yards on the ground. His only target in the passing game was not much of a target at all, a pop-pass on a reverse from the five-yard line that was essentially another carry. Luckily for some fantasy managers, Samuel Sr. managed to take it into the end zone. Unless he bounces back with a big game in Week 18, Samuel Sr. will record career lows in receptions per game, receiving yards per game, and rushing yards per attempt. He'll also bottom out this year in important counting stats like total touchdowns and rushing yards if throwing out the 2020 season in which he only made five starts. Samuel Sr. will try to build momentum for next year when he takes on the Cardinals in Arizona on Sunday.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings had a passable performance during the team's 40-34 loss to the Detroit Lions in Santa Clara on Sunday night. Jennings finished with seven receptions on 10 targets for 67 yards. While his final line was unspectacular, it was almost worse. Half of Jennings' targets and nearly half of his receptions and yards came on San Francisco's final drive with the team in desperation mode and down by two scores. It all counts the same for fantasy managers who needed only a halfway-decent showing in the final week of the fantasy season. Those who needed more from Jennings were certainly tearing their hair out watching rookie receiver Ricky Pearsall (8/141/1) eclipse Jennings throughout the night, for just the second time this year. Jennings will look to finish his breakout season on a high note when the 49ers travel to Arizona for a meaningless Week 18 contest.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (right elbow) likely avoided a serious injury during the fourth quarter of Monday's loss to the Detroit Lions. According to head coach Kyle Shanahan (via a post on X from ESPN's Nick Wagoner), Purdy likely just got hit in the wrong spot, which led to a nerve issue. Shanahan did note that the 49ers need to conduct further testing on Purdy, but the expectation is that he will be okay. It's still to early to tell whether Purdy, who totaled 377 passing yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions on Monday night, will play in Week 18. Next weekend's contest is essentially meaningless for the 49ers, who have already been eliminated from the playoffs and could opt to rest key starters, including Purdy. Fantasy managers should stay tuned for updates on the 49ers' plans over the next few days.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions kicker Jake Bates went 2-for-2 on field goals and 2-for-4 on extra points during Monday's Week 17 win over the San Francisco 49ers. His two field goals came from 42 and 57 yards out. In the shorter kicking game, Bates missed one extra point attempt and had another blocked. The 25-year-old has been terrific in his first NFL season, ranking seventh among kickers in fantasy football. In the primetime victory, he set a Lions single-season franchise record for points scored (135). He'll remain a top fantasy option heading into next week's pivotal matchup against the Minnesota Vikings.
From RotoBaller
The Detroit Lions D/ST allowed 34 points, intercepted two passes, and registered two sacks during Monday's Week 17 win over the San Francisco 49ers. Kerby Joseph was responsible for both interceptions, bringing his season total to nine. He added six tackles along the way. Elsewhere on defense, Brian Branch had a big game with seven tackles and one sack. Myles Adams added a sack while Jack Campbell led the unit with nine tackles. Although the turnovers helped Detroit boost its fantasy value on Monday night, they came a little late. The 49ers dropped three touchdowns on the Lions in the first half before Brock Purdy finally started to show weakness with his two interceptions. Moving forward, Detroit will rank outside the top 12 fantasy defenses for Week 18 against a strong Minnesota Vikings offense.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers rookie running back Isaac Guerendo had a useful fantasy day during a 40-34 loss to the Detroit Lions on Monday night. The former high school wide receiver took nine carries for just 34 yards but saved his day through the air by catching all four of his targets for 65 yards. With most fantasy leagues in the books after Monday night, it's fair to say that Guerendo comported himself well in his rookie season by flashing the speed, receiving chops, and scheme fit that caused the 49ers to trade up and select him in the fourth round. Guerendo figures to draw another start while vying for his fifth 10-plus-point half-PPR performance in Week 18's meaningless game in Arizona.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta caught six of his eight targets for 64 yards and one touchdown during Monday's Week 17 win over the San Francisco 49ers. LaPorta had a relatively quiet and inconsistent start to the season, but he has come on incredibly strong lately, posting double-digit fantasy points in each of his last five contests. In fact, he ranks as the overall TE1 since Week 13, scoring 6.6 points more than the second-highest tight end scorer, Trey McBride. As long as the Lions' offense keeps surging, LaPorta should remain an integral contributor within the passing attack. His ability to command targets, catch passes, rack up yardage, and score touchdowns parallels the NFL's elite tight ends, like McBride, Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Brock Bowers. Fantasy managers should continue to view LaPorta as a mid-to-high TE1 option for Week 18 against the Minnesota Vikings.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams caught five of his eight targets for 77 yards and two total touchdowns during Monday's Week 17 win over the San Francisco 49ers. He also rushed twice for negative two yards. Williams' first touchdown came on a three-yard rush, and his second came on a trick play that involved a lateral from Amon-Ra St. Brown. The third-year receiver is now the overall WR5 in PPR leagues since Week 11, establishing himself as one of the best No. 2 wideouts in an NFL offense. He should continue to be deployed as a high-end WR2 in fantasy football ahead of next week's pivotal battle with the Minnesota Vikings. With the NFC's No. 1 seed on the line, Williams should remain very heavily involved.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown caught eight of his 10 targets for 60 yards and one touchdown during Monday's Week 17 win over the San Francisco 49ers. The 25-year-old continues to play spectacular football, finding the end zone in four consecutive contests. He also ranks as the overall WR1 in PPR leagues since Week 11, putting up a whole 10 fantasy points more than the next-highest scorer, Puka Nacua. St. Brown has some of the best hands in the league, and his availability has been unmatched. He remains a high-end WR1 for Week 18 and should be one of the first few receivers off the board in 2025 fantasy drafts.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions running back Craig Reynolds rushed for 31 yards on seven carries during Monday's Week 17 win over the San Francisco 49ers. He also caught two passes for an additional 35 yards through the air, finishing as this week's RB28 in PPR leagues. The 28-year-old had his largest workload of the season on Monday as David Montgomery (knee) continues to miss time. Reynolds is still clearly behind Jahmyr Gibbs in the pecking order, but he's a productive change-of-pace back and an equally intriguing handcuff. Gibbs is headed for a full workload in Week 18, but Reynolds should see another seven to nine touches against the Minnesota Vikings.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff completed 26 of his 34 pass attempts for 303 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions during Monday's Week 17 win over the San Francisco 49ers. He also lost three rushing yards on a trio of kneel-downs. The veteran quarterback has played fantastic, turnover-free football lately, racking up 1,133 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and zero turnovers over his last three contests. Goff's big game moved him up to the overall QB6 in fantasy football this season, making him one of the few top fantasy quarterbacks who produce points without having much of a rushing impact. He remains a mid-range QB1 option heading into next week's pivotal matchup against the Minnesota Vikings with the NFC's No. 1 seed on the line.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 117 yards and one touchdown on 18 carries during Monday's Week 17 win over the San Francisco 49ers. He also caught all four of his targets for an additional 46 yards through the air. Gibbs' touchdown came in the fourth quarter as he scored from 30 yards out, with help from some of his teammates' key blocks. The second-year running back hasn't missed a beat since taking on an expanded role with David Montgomery (knee) sidelined. He has 431 total yards and four touchdowns over his last three games, ranking as the overall RB1 in PPR leagues during that span. Fantasy managers should continue to view Gibbs as a top running back option heading into Week 18 against the Minnesota Vikings. Unlike some other NFL teams, the Lions are still fighting for a playoff position the No. 1 seed in the NFC and therefore will be playing all their starters, including Gibbs.
From RotoBaller