Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
San Francisco 49ers kicker Jake Moody will open his sophomore season with a Monday night home game versus the New York Jets. Moody finished his rookie season in 2023 tied with Atlanta's Younghoe Koo as the K17 in fantasy points per game. Moody and Koo took very different routes to those numbers, though. Moody only attempted 25 field goals to Koo's 37. The difference was made up in extra points, as Moody led the league in the category and set a record with 53 straight. Lack of opportunity aside, Moody does have room for improvement in his accuracy; he recorded an 84% last year, which was near the bottom of the league. The Jets defense is expected to be stout but if their defense is anything like last year's, the 49ers should be able to move the ball on the ground at least. The weather in Santa Clara on Monday night is expected to be near-perfect. Moody is a back-end fantasy starter in Week 1.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle will open his eighth NFL season when the team hosts the New York Jets on Monday night. The former Iowa Hawkeye had another successful season in 2023, finishing with 1,020 yards on 60 catches and six touchdowns, which earned him the overall TE5 slot in half-PPR. While the Jets were elite against the pass last year -- ranking second-best in the NFL in passing yards -- they were ordinary at preventing TE fantasy production (13th). While Kittle may have been pushed down in ADP this year by younger dynamic tight ends like Detroit's Sam LaPorta and Arizona's Trey McBride, Kittle is still worthy of starting lineups when healthy. Roll with Kittle in the middle of the TE1 landscape this week.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff will begin the 2024-25 campaign on Sunday night against the Rams, his former club. The 29-year-old had arguably his best season in 2023-24, throwing for 4,575 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, adding two scores on the ground. As a result, Detroit rewarded him with a lucrative contract extension in the offseason. Without question, the Lions offense is loaded with talent, with Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta on the roster. With all those weapons in Goff's arsenal, he's a must-start in all fantasy formats in Week 1. Unless things go in a completely different direction from last season, fantasy managers will likely keep Goff in the lineup for the entire year.
From RotoBaller
According to Chicago Bears head coach Matt Eberflus, wide receiver Keenan Allen (heel) is expected to be on the field for Week 1 against the Titans. The 32-year-old has been battling a heel issue and carried a questionable designation. However, barring a setback, it appears all signs are pointing toward his availability versus Tennessee. Allen spent his entire career with the Chargers before finding his way to The Windy City this offseason. He had a solid 2023-24 campaign, amassing 108 grabs (150 targets) for 1,243 yards and seven touchdowns. Although there could be issues caused by the inexperience of rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, there's no way fantasy managers would feel comfortable keeping Allen on the bench. Granted, he'll also primarily compete for targets with DJ Moore, who is coming off a monster season. But until Allen shows signs of regression, he's a must-start in all formats in Week 1.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard will likely take on the majority of the work for their season debut against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. With rookie Jonathan Brooks (knee) still not available, Hubbard will take on the starting role, splitting reps with Miles Sanders. Hubbard finds himself with a decent matchup against New Orleans defense, a unit that allowed the thirteenth-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs last season, as well as the eleventh-most rushing yards. Considering Hubbard will take on most of the work for Carolina, he does provide a safe enough floor to be targeted as a potential RB2 for fantasy managers.
From RotoBaller
According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson (calf) plans to play in Sunday's matchup versus the Atlanta Falcons. However, team doctors are pumping the brakes on his plans, with Schefter adding that a "final decision" will be made on Sunday morning. ESPN's Brooke Pryor also reported that Wilson will test his ailing calf during pregame warm-ups, but he's been doing anything imaginable to feel his best. Wilson will potentially debut with the Steelers in Week 1 after a subpar tenure with the Denver Broncos. Yet, he was limited during training camp, and with the possibility of residual issues caused by the injury, fantasy managers may want to look in another direction for a starting quarterback on Sunday. The same will be true if backup Justin Fields ends up under center.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. should be the focal point of the team's passing attack when they host the New York Jets at home on Monday night. Head coach Kyle Shanahan said on Saturday that Samuel Sr.'s counterpart Brandon Aiyuk would not play as many snaps as usual following his "hold-in". This should lead to at least a slight increase in targets for Samuel Sr this week. It is also conceivable that he sees increased action in the running game as well with All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey questionable (calf/Achilles). The only significant thing working against Samuel Sr. would appear to be the strength of New York's pass defense, which allowed the second-fewest yards per game through the air last year and has returned most of their key players. It's worth noting that Jets head coach Robert Saleh said in the offseason that lockdown cornerback Sauce Gardner would spend more time following around opponents' No.1 WR this year, which in this case would seem to be Aiyuk, reduced snaps notwithstanding. Samuel Sr. rates as a high-end WR2 in fantasy this week.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers wide receiver Diontae Johnson will make his team debut this Sunday when the Panthers travel to take on the New Orleans Saints. Johnson was brought in to provide additional support to a unit that severely underperformed in 2023, and looks to be the WR1 for the offense. He faces a Saints defense that was above average against the pass last season, allowing the tenth-fewest receiving yards and thirteenth-fewest fantasy points to the position. That being said, the former Steeler should drive a strong target share, making him a more than viable option in the matchup. Fantasy managers should prioritize Johnson as a WR2/3
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young looks to get off on the right foot in his sophomore campaign when the Panthers travel to take on the New Orleans Saints. Young struggled in his rookie season, throwing for 2877 yards with 11 touchdowns, 10 INTs and a 2-15 record. Although the Panthers have tried to reload on both sides of the ball, Young and the Panthers face a stout Saints defense that allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to QBs last season. On top of that, this game also projects to be one of the lowest scoring in Week 1's slate, limiting any potential upside Young might have. Fantasy managers should wait and see how this Panthers offense performs before considering Young in lineups, and he can comfortably left on the bench in most formats this week.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk will open the 2024 season at home versus the New York Jets vaunted pass defense on Monday night. The 26-year-old comes into the game fresh off a four-year $120 million extension inked just over a week ago after a long holdout which caused Aiyuk to miss all of camp and the preseason, though he did attend meetings. Head coach Kyle Shanahan said during a Saturday presser that Aiyuk is in good shape, but because of the demand of the wide receiver position, he will probably play a little less than usual. Aiyuk managers with other WR/FLEX options may want to consider benching Aiyuk this week, especially since the Jets pass defense ranked 2nd in the NFL in yards allowed last year and are returning most of their key players. There will probably be weeks this season when Aiyuk projects as a back-end WR1, but this week isn't one of them. Consider him an upper-edge WR3/FLEX for Monday.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos defense/special teams unit had a rough start to last season before actually turning things around in a big way and being a streaming option in deeper leagues and during byes late in the year. But in Week 1 of 2024 on the road against a Seattle Seahawks offense that is expected to be dynamic under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, nobody is expecting much. Denver's D allowed 19.3 points per game from Weeks 6-18 last year after giving up 36.2 points per game over the first five weeks. A second year under defensive coordinator Vance Joseph should help make them more consistent, and reinforcements along the D-line should help them improve a rushing D that ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed per game in 2023. But both Kenneth Walker III on the ground and Geno Smith through the air will test them. In Week 1, fantasy managers should have better options to start.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Eagles running back Saquon Barkley rushed for 109 yards and two touchdowns while adding two catches for 23 yards and another score in his Philadelphia debut. Dynasty Analysis: The Eagles offense struggled in its first two series but came to life after with Barkley leading the way. It couldn't have gone much better for Saquon as he had 24 of the 25 running back carries with Kenneth Gainwell garnering just one tote. While we have a long way to go before declaring Barkley as being totally back, this was a pretty awe-inspiring debut for his new team.
Dynasty | Packers receiver Jayden Reed had four catches for 138 yards and a touchdown while adding a 33-yard rushing touchdown in Green Bay's season-opening loss to the Eagles. Dynasty Analysis: Reed was a fantasy dynamo at times last year and this game showed that was no fluke. It looks like Reed, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are the top receivers in this offense and while any ot them can post a big game, Reed certainly looks like the best bet of the trio at the moment. The big concern with him is clearly the health of Jordan Love, so stay tuned.
Dynasty | Packers running back Josh Jacobs rushed for 84 yards and caught two passes for 20 yards in Green Bay's opening night loss to the Eagles. Dynasty Analysis: Jacobs had one 32-yard gain but was otherwise quiet on the night. This will certainly not be the case every week and he may be even more important to the offense should Green Bay lose Jordan Love for an extended period of time. Regardless, Jacobs is a fringe RB1 most weeks and this seems like a game that would be closer to his floor than ceiling this year.
Dynasty | Packers receiver Dontayvion Wicks was held without a catch in Green Bay's season-opening loss to the Eagles. Dynasty Analysis: Wicks was targeted three times but failed to record a reception. This was a major downer for many dynasty managers who bought into the hype surrounding Wicks all off-season. While it's just one game, it does seem as if he's a distant fourth option behind blossoming star Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson. Wicks remains a hold in dynasty leagues for now but expectations should be tempered.
Dynasty | Eagles receiver Jahan Dotson was held catchless in his Eagles debut. Dynasty Analysis: Yuck. Even worse, Dotson garnered just one target on the night. While it's just one game, the notion Dotson would take a few targets away from AJ Brown or DeVonta Smith early on can be put to rest. Dotson is a hold in dynasty leagues but his value arrow is pointing straight down at the moment.
New England Patriots safety Jabrill Peppers (hip) was added to the Week 1 injury report on Saturday and is now questionable to suit up for the season opener on Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals. Peppers is one of the team's key defenders, not just in the secondary, so not having him on Sunday would be a big blow as the Pats try to slow down a Bengals offense that could be without its top two receivers in Ja'Marr Chase (holdout) and Tee Higgins (hamstring). The 28-year-old is worth stashing in IDP leagues but should probably be on benches in Week 1 now that he's up in the air to play. The former 25th overall pick in 2017 out of Michigan is heading into his third year in New England after racking up 87 solo tackles, seven tackles for loss, two interceptions, eight pass breakups, a forced fumble, two fumble recoveries and a sack in 32 games (20 starts) over the last two years.
San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason has an outside chance to draw a start when the team opens the 2024 season at home against the New York Jets on Monday night. All-Pro starter Christian McCaffrey (calf/Achilles) has been listed as questionable ahead of the game despite head coach Kyle Shanahan maintaining throughout the preseason that the injury would not cause McCaffrey to miss Week 1. During the preseason Mason earned the task of backing up McCaffrey, showing adequate burst and vision. Last year, Mason averaged 5.2 yards per carry and three touchdowns with minimal involvement in the passing game, mostly in garbage time. If McCaffrey cannot go on Monday night, Mason is worth considering for a starting slot in fantasy lineups. Last year, New York's defense was much better against the pass than the run, ranking 25th in the league in yards per game allowed and could be even worse this year, with the loss of key personnel and new acquisition Haason Reddick to miss the game due to a holdout. Mason managers should keep an eye on McCaffrey's status leading up to Monday, although news will probably come too late for most.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown gets a superb matchup Sunday evening when the team squares off against the Los Angeles Rams. Expect St. Brown to eat against an LA secondary ranked worst in the league last season regarding their coverage, as per PFF. While the Rams prioritized their defensive backfield in the offseason, fantasy managers should have no fears slotting him into their lineups. The fourth-year superstar wideout is the engine that drives Detroit's offense, and quarterback Jared Goff's targets are distinctly funneled to him and sophomore tight end Sam LaPorta. The two combined for 284 targets (164/120) in 2023, while the next-highest Lions receiver saw just 71. It is possible -- with all the training camp hype he received -- that WR Jameson Williams will garner a more significant target share in 2024. However, St. Brown is in a pristine role and unlikely to lose his WR1 status. He's RotoBaller's second overall option at WR in Week 1 rankings.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy will open his third pro season on Monday night with a home game against the New York Jets. In 2023, Purdy had an excellent year, leading the league in several important categories, which led to a fourth-place finish in MVP voting and a narrow loss in Super Bowl LVIII. Despite Purdy's success in the regular season, the 24-year-old spent most of last year on the fantasy QB1/2 edge, mostly because of San Francisco's emphasis on the ground game and Purdy's lack of reliable rushing production. Meanwhile, the Jets' passing defense was elite last year, ranking second in the NFL in yards per game (168.3). In terms of personnel turnover, New York's defense remains largely intact though they did lose safety Jordan Whitehead as well as Bryce Huff and Quinton Jefferson up front. In March they replaced Huff by trading for All-Pro Haason Reddick. However, Reddick will not play on Monday night due to a contract holdout, which should make life a little easier for Purdy. Even still, with the Jets' pass defense being a true shutdown unit, Purdy is firmly in QB2 territory this week.
From RotoBaller