RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
- FANTASY EXCLUSIVE: Bender's Favorite NFL DFS Pickem Picks: Week 2
- FANTASY EXCLUSIVE: RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 2
- YOUTUBE VIDEO: Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 2
- YOUTUBE VIDEO: Fantasy Preview: Week 2
- YOUTUBE VIDEO: Bender DFS Pickem Plays: Week 2
- Jets may have lost Jermaine Johnson II (Achilles) for season
- Vikings' Justin Jefferson, 49ers' Nick Bosa hurt on same play
- Week 2 SNF: Bears-Texans Preview, Props, Prediction
- Rams WR Puka Nacua could be out until Week 9
- Jaguars TE Evan Engram injured in warmups, out vs. Browns
- Eagles WR A.J. Brown downgraded to out vs. Falcons
- Saints CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) inactive vs. Cowboys
- Packers QB Jordan Love (knee) hopeful of Week 5 return
- Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase gets insurance policy on himself
- Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has no plans to retire
- Packers list QB Jordan Love as doubtful vs. Colts
- Bears place G Ryan Bates (shoulder/elbow) on injured reserve
- Eagles WR A.J. Brown (hamstring) not spotted at practice
- 49ers placing star RB Christian McCaffrey on IR
- Giants K Graham Gano (groin) added to injury report
- Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (knee) set to play vs. Rams
- 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey ruled out, could be headed to IR
- Bengals WR Tee Higgins (hamstring) doubtful for Chiefs
- Browns star DE Myles Garrett (foot) set to go vs. Jaguars
- Packers say QB Jordan Love (knee) questionable despite no practice
- Fantasy Six Pack: NFL Week 2 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets | Bears @ Texans
- Fantasy Six Pack: Fantasy Football Rankings Standard
- Fantasy Six Pack: Fantasy Football Rankings PPR
- Fantasy Six Pack: Fantasy Football Rankings
- Fantasy Life: Big Fantasy Football Injury Updates
- Fantasy Life: Which WR Will Step Up in LA?
- Fantasy Life: Christian McCaffrey Injury Fallout: Risers, Fallers, and More
- Fantasy Life: A Fantasy Football Hollywood Horror
The Paur Report
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 2
Dynasty | Chargers rookie Ladd McConkey had two catches for 26 yards in the Chargers blowout win against the Panthers. Dynasty Analysis: Los Angeles got more than enough from JK Dobbins and Quentin Johnston in this one as McConkey was held in check. There should be better days ahead but McConkey willl need to string a few good games together to maintain his role after Johnston had a two-touchdown day and led the team in targets. McConkey's dynasty value is intact but he'll be a tough start moving forward.
Dynasty | Panthers receiver Diontae Johnson had just three catches for 15 yards in the Panthers blowout loss to the Chargers. Dynasty Analysis: Johnson now has just five catches for 34 scoreless yards in his first two games in Carolina. It's hardly his fault as Bryce Young has done virtually nothing so far this season. At this point, Johnson is going to be a "must-sit" until we see something from an offense that looks as bad as any we've seen in years to start this season.
Dynasty | 49ers running back Jordan Mason had 100 yards rushing and a touchdown in San Francisco's surprising loss at Minnesota. Dynasty Analysis: He added one catch for four yards. While Mason is hardly the same caliber of receiver Christian McCaffrey is, the offense seems very well-suited for his rushing style. His weekly ceiling may be capped moving forward if he doesn't get more targets. However, Mason has proven to be good enough to be a weekly starter, whether that's as a RB1 or RB2 moving forward.
Dynasty | Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold completed 17-of-26 passes for 268 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in the Vikings win against San Francisco. Dynasty Analysis: Darnold has had a dream start to the year as he's led Minnesota to 51 points and two wins to start the season. While Darnold isn't putting up video game numbers, he's making solid decisions and taking care of the football. Today's game was extremely promising as he held strong against one of the league's toughest defenses. He could have had an even bigger game had Aaron Jones not fumbled a "would be" touchdown in the second half at the goal line. Darnold is going to be in consideration in Superflex leagues moving forward and should be rostered everywhere.
Dynasty | Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson had four catches for 133 yards and a touchdown in Minnesota's win over the 49ers. Dynasty Analysis: Jefferson's day was highlighted by a 97-yard touchdown reception from a rejuvenated Sam Darnold. The bigger story could be the fact Jefferson left the game late with a quad injury. We'll wait and see just what the extent of the injury is but it's also clear Jefferson can maintain his WR1 status this year with or without Kirk Cousins after the second big day from Darnold.
Dynasty | Vikings running back Ty Chandler had 82 yards on just ten carries in the Vikings win over San Francisco. Dynasty Analysis: More importantly, Chandler had ten carries and Aaron Jones had nine. While this is just one game, it seems Minnesota may be heading more towards a time-share at this point between the two running backs. Chandler is a must-own in dynasty leagues as we monitor his touches very closely over the next couple of weeks.
Dynasty | Browns running back D'Onta Foreman had 42 yards on 14 carries in Cleveland's win over Jacksonville. Dynasty Analysis: More importantly, Foreman's 15 touches (he had one catch for nine yards) were more than the eight of Jerome Ford. Quite honestly, neither running back was very impressive on the day and the fact both were used this much may indeed make them unplayable going forward as the Cleveland offense has looked pretty inept so far this season. We'll continue to monitor the situation but neither back is going to be a recommended play until one or the other truly emerges.
Dynasty | Jags rookie Brian Thomas had two catches for 94 yards in Jacksonville's loss against Cleveland. Dynasty Analysis: Thomas only had four targets on the day but made the most of them with a 66-yard catch. Trevor Lawrence seems to be spreading the ball around a lot but Thomas also looks like the most explosive receiver on the team. While he should remain on benches, Thomas has looked the part thus far in his rookie season and his potential seems to have justified his lofty rookie draft ranking thus far.
Dynasty | Raiders tight end Brock Bowers had nine catches for 98 yards in the Raiders win over the Ravens. Dynasty Analysis: Bowers has done nothing to make anyone believe he's not the future at the position in dynasty leagues thus far after posting a whopping 15 catches in his first two games. While dynasty owners may be frustrating at him not finding the end zone yet, that's just a case of greed. Bowers is here to stay and looks like a "set it and forget it" option already in his young career.
Dynasty | Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely had just two catches for 26 yards in Baltimore's loss to Las Vegas. Dynasty Analysis: This isn't a huge surprise as Baltimore's passing offense still runs through Zay Flowers and they tend to run the ball as much as possible. Still, this is a clear letdown after last week's massive explosion. The simple fact is the Ravens now have two very capable tight ends as Mark Andrews (4/51/0) and Likely are making a duo that looks great in reality but frustrating in dynasty leagues. Likely's ascension up the rankings will halt after this one and he's going to be a tough start moving forward until we see another solid outing.
Dynasty | Jayden Daniels completed 23-of-29 passes for 226 yards, while adding 44 rushing yards in the Commanders win over the Giants. Dynasty Analysis: Daniels wasn't able to produce any touchdowns on the day but one thing is very clear after two weeks - Daniels has the "it" factor. Routinely making something out of nothing, Daniels simply willed the team to a win, his first as a starter in the NFL. There are going to be some better days statistically moving forward but it seems Washington has truly found their quarterback of the future. The buying window on Daniels is creeping shut.
Dynasty | Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers had ten catches for 127 yards and a touchdown in the Giants loss against Washington. Dynasty Analysis: Even more impressive, Nabers had a whopping 18 (!) of the 28 targets from Daniel Jones. While this target share is impossible to maintain, it's clear going to Nabers is the best bet for the Giants to have any success on offense this season and they're making every effort to give him the ball. His status as the #2 rookie is cemented and he's a must-start, top-15 receiver moving forward this season.
Dynasty | Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 12 catches for 117 yards in Seattle's road win over New England. Dynasty Analysis: JSN was held in check last week but today was a different story as Geno Smith looked his way a whopping 16 times. Smith-Njigba looks to be taking over the WR2 spot from Tyler Lockett this season and could be well on his way to a second year breakout. The dynasty arrow is clearly pointing up for JSN and he's going to be a solid WR3 moving forward.
Dynasty | Patriots rookie Ja'Lynn Polk had two catches for 12 yards and his first career touchdown in a loss against Seattle. Dynasty Analysis: Polk scored and that's the good news. The bad news is he now has just three catches for 18 yards on the season. This is simply an indictment on an offense that has done next to nothing to start the year and is simply going as far as running back Rhamondre Stevenson can take them. Polk's dynasty value is safe but he needs to remain on dynasty benches for the time being.
Dynasty | Jets rookie running back Braelon Allen had 33 rushing yards, two catches, 23 receiving yards and two touchdown in New York's win against Tennessee. Dynasty Analysis: The bad news is Allen was still out-touched 21-9 by Breece Hall. There is no running back controversy here as Hall is the unquestioned bellcow for the Jets. However, it's clear Allen has talent and if Hall was to ever miss time, Allen could be in line for a RB1 stretch. Allen remains a solid hold in dynasty leagues moving forward and a solid low-cost trade target for forward-thinking managers.
Dynasty | Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson completed 17-of-34 passes for 204 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions in a loss against Green Bay. Dynasty Analysis: One of the interceptions was on a last second hail mary, so that can hardly count against him. Still, Richardson wasn't sharp and his fantasy day couldn't be salvaged, even with his 37 rushing yards. There is work to do here and while Richardson seems healthy, we need to see more consistency before making him a lineup lock moving forward - such is life in the NFL for young quarterbacks.
Dynasty | Packers quarterback Malik Willis completed 12-of-14 passes for 122 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions in a win against Indianapolis. Dynasty Analysis: Willis also added 41 rushing yards on the day. The game plan for Green Bay is clear with Willis under center - they're going to run the ball with Josh Jacobs and have Willis manage football games. While that may seem like a buzzkill for dynasty managers, Willis looked surprisingly in control all day and while nobody is going to forget about Jordan Love, the trade Green Bay made for him looks like a genius move at this point. Willis belongs on dynasty rosters.
Dynasty | Packers receiver Dontayvion Wicks had three catches for 26 yards and a touchdown in Green Bay's win against the Colts. Dynasty Analysis: The stat line isn't going to "wow" anyone but this was a big step up from last week when Wicks failed to catch a single pass. After starring all preseason, this was a much needed game from Wicks, who has again reiterated he should be on dynasty rosters - a thought that was in question after last week. He remains a hold as the Packers attempt to survive without Jordan Love.
Dynasty | Saints running back Alvin Kamara had 115 rushing yards, two catches, 65 receiving yards, and four total touchdowns in the Saints upset loss at Dallas. Dynasty Analysis: The Saints have now scored 91 points in two games and Kamara's five touchdowns so far this season are just one behind his season total of six last year. To say this is a good development is a total understatement as it looks like Derek Carr is in total control of this offense and the Saints are poised for a serious bounce-back. While it's just a two game sample size, Kamara is looking like his old self and is a perfect target for a contending dynasty team as a productive, yet aging running back.
Dynasty | Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed had four catches for 96 yards and a touchdown in a win against Dallas. Dynasty Analysis: Shaheed was fancied about as a potential breakout player this year and the first two games have given dynasty managers seven catches for 169 yards and two touchdowns already. Shaheed isn't going to overtake Chris Olave (six catches for 92 scoreless yards on the season) as the WR1 in New Orleans but he's looking like a player who needs to be in lineups moving forward. His dynasty arrow is clearly pointing up as well.
