RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
TFC Champion is Crowned
Dynasty | Wide receiver Deebo Samuel has been traded to the Washington Commanders in exchange for a fifth-round pick. Dynasty Analysis: Samuel was destined to be on the move for some time and now it's official. The price tag for Washington is more than palatable as a fifth-round pick seems more than reasonable. He'll slot in alongside Terry McLaurin to create a solid duo for star quarterback Jayden Daniels. As for Samuel's dynasty value, that's still tough to assess. There's no doubting his talent, but he's also three years removed from that magical 2021 season where he posted over 1,400 receiving yards and 365 rushing yards (both career highs). His allure as a WR1 has long since faded, but his status as a WR2 should be safe.
The Philadelphia Eagles' interest in trading for Cleveland Browns All-Pro pass-rusher Myles Garrett is real, sources have told The Athletic's Dianna Russini. "Garrett could be this year's version of Saquon Barkley for Howie (Roseman)," one NFL general manager said. "He's an impact add and isn't a free-agent overpay. Howie's not afraid to try stuff, and it fits where they are as a team." The only way to make it work for Philadelphia would be if they were to let key members of their Super Bowl-winning group walk, including linebacker Zack Baun. In addition to Baun, edge rusher Josh Sweat, defensive tackle Milton Williams and guard Mekhi Becton headline the Eagles' free-agent class, and bringing them all back would prove difficult if they added Garrett, who could easily become the highest-paid defensive player in the league on his next contract.
Dynasty | The Rams have agreed to a restructured contract with quarterback Matthew Stafford. Dynasty Analysis: Matthew Stafford will be the starter for the Rams next season as he agreed to a restructured contract. This was always the expected outcome but Stafford was able to at least dip his toes into the market to see if there was something better out there for him. This is the first domino to fall in the a quarterback carousel that should feature Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields, and Sam Darnold all possibly find new homes. Los Angeles won't be one of those. As for Stafford, he'll remain a low-end QB1 for at least next season as his career really is a year-to-year thing at this point.
Minnesota Vikings impending free-agent RB Aaron Jones is a player the Vikings are interested in re-signing this offseason.
Fantasy Spin: Jones rushed for a career-high 1,138 yards this past season and probably will receive most of the work at running back if he stays with the Vikings. He can be at least a No. 3 running back in all fantasy leagues next season.
From TheHuddle
Tampa Bay Buccaneers impending free-agent WR Chris Godwin is a player the New England Patriots are interested in this offseason but members of the organization do not believe he is leaving the Buccaneers, sources told The Boston Herald's Andrew Callahan and Doug Kyed.
Fantasy Spin: Godwin likely will receive interest from several teams if he hits the free-agent market, but the Buccaneers seem to be the leading candidate for Godwin. He will be a weekly starting option in fantasy leagues next season.
From TheHuddle
Los Angeles Rams impending free-agent WR Demarcus Robinson indicated that he wants to re-sign with the Rams this offseason.
From TheHuddle
New York Jets WR Davante Adams has been made available to teams in a trade, and Jets are receiving calls about Adams, according to sources. Adams is expected to be released if they are not able to find a trade.
Fantasy Spin: Fantasy players should monitor the situation to see if a team decides to acquire Adams or if teams will wait until he hits the free-agent market. He is still a productive receiver and will be a starter no matter where he plays. Adams likely will be a weekly starting option in fantasy leagues in 2025.
From TheHuddle
Detroit Lions impending free-agent CB Carlton Davis likely will receive interest from the Jacksonville Jaguars during free agency, according to ESPN.com's Jeremy Fowler.
From TheHuddle
Both ESPN's Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler are expecting the Carolina Panthers to be aggressive this offseason in pursuing upgrades on the defensive side of the ball, and they will have plenty of salary cap space in which to work from. The Panthers could be in on the top free-agent safeties in Jevon Holland and Camryn Bynum, among others and also might be willing to spend big on Eagles free-agent defensive tackle Milton Williams. As they look to add edge-rushing depth, Chase Young will be one of the more intriguing options on the free-agent market. In house, Fowler writes that the Panthers want to sign star cornerback Jaycee Horn to an extension before the cornerback market blows up. Carolina could surely use the help on the defensive side of the ball, as they allowed the most points per game (31.4) and the most total yards per game (404.5) in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Both ESPN's Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler write that the Cleveland Browns continue to insist they aren't open to trading All-Pro pass-rusher Myles Garrett under any circumstances. And even if the Browns were open to trading him, they'd likely wait until after June 1, as a trade would jump Garrett's 2025 salary cap number from $19.7 million to a dead-money hit of $36.2 million. Waiting until after June 1 would allow Cleveland to spread that charge out over two seasons. It's looking like the Browns won't seriously entertain trading the 29-year-old until they're convinced he'd be willing to miss regular-season games in 2025. Fowler writes that he thinks the Browns are very dug in and willing to wait Garrett out. If the Browns get serious about trading him, the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles are expected to be two of the most aggressive suitors.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals impending free-agent TE Mike Gesicki is a priority for the Bengals to re-sign this offseason, according to director of player personnel Duke Tobin.
Fantasy Spin: Gesicki posted 665 receiving yards and two touchdowns this season and was targeted at least five times in eight games this past season. He will be part of one of the better offenses in the NFL if he stays with the Bengals and could be a low-end No. 1 tight end in some leagues.
From TheHuddle
Names on the Indianapolis Colts' radar as they look to bring in competition for quarterback Anthony Richardson include Daniel Jones, Justin Fields, Trey Lance and Jacoby Brissett, according to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler. Jones' name has come up more than once in regards to the Colts this offseason. Indianapolis hasn't given up on Richardson as their starter under center moving forward, but it will also be telling how they approach free agency at the position. Veteran Joe Flacco served as the backup to Richardson last year and even started six games in 2024, but it remains to be seen if the Colts will re-sign him. Jones, a former first-rounder, was a bust for the New York Giants and was cut last year after throwing for 2,070 yards, eight touchdowns and seven interceptions in 10 games. With Sam Darnold potentially leaving the Vikings, Minnesota could look to re-sign Jones as insurance for J.J. McCarthy (knee).
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (hamstring) does not want to put a timetable on his return from his hamstring injury but indicated that he will be ready for the 2025 season.
Fantasy Spin: Prescott does not need to do much during offseason workouts and should have plenty of time to be ready for training camp. He is one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL when healthy and probably will be a No. 1 fantasy quarterback in most leagues.
From TheHuddle
Dallas Cowboys impending free-agent DE DeMarcus Lawrence said he would like to re-sign with the Cowboys this offseason but the decision is up to the team.
From TheHuddle
The sense that ESPN's Jeremy Fowler has gotten is that quarterback Justin Fields has an edge over veteran Russell Wilson in the Pittsburgh Steelers' free-agent QB pecking order this offseason. Fowler goes on to write that there is sentiment for Fields in the building, and both sides would be open to a return. However, the team isn't ruling out Wilson, and they still have another week before deciding how to move forward in free agency. Even if the Steelers don't bring Fields back, he'll have options on the open market. The New York Jets are expected to gauge his market, and he could also be a nice fit for the Las Vegas Raiders. Although Wilson gave the Steelers more offensive upside when he took over under center in 2024, Fields is a more dynamic athlete at this point and is younger. The 25-year-old went 4-2 with 1,106 passing yards, five TDs and a pick in his six starts while also running for 289 yards and five TDs.
From RotoBaller
Minnesota Vikings impending free-agent quarterback Daniel Jones (knee) is expected to be on the Cleveland Browns' radar this offseason, according to people that ESPN's Jeremy Fowler has talked to. Because the Browns still owe injured quarterback Deshaun Watson (Achilles) $92 million over the next two years, they will understandably consider cost when it comes to the QB market. They are also fully expected to stay in the No. 2 spot in the upcoming NFL draft and take a signal-caller. Cleveland could also be interested in Atlanta Falcons QB Kirk Cousins if he becomes available, but the Falcons might not just outright cut him. Fowler also mentions Carson Wentz as a possible target for the Browns. Jones, 27, completed 63.3% of his passes for 2,070 yards, eight TDs and seven interceptions in 10 games before being released by the Giants in 2024. He then latched on with the Vikings but didn't see any action. With Sam Darnold likely to walk in free agency, don't rule out the Vikings re-signing Jones as insurance for former first-rounder J.J. McCarthy (knee).
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers impending free-agent QB Justin Fields appears to be the more likely candidate for the Steelers to re-sign this offseason than impending free-agent QB Russell Wilson, in the opinion of ESPN.com's Jeremy Fowler.
Fantasy Spin: The Steelers have indicated they would like to sign either Fields or Wilson, but it seems like Fields has more momentum at this point. Fantasy players should monitor the situation over the next few weeks, but neither quarterback will likely be more than a No. 2 fantasy quarterback at this point.
From TheHuddle
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler continues to hear that the Minnesota Vikings won't mortgage their future to re-sign impending free-agent quarterback Sam Darnold. Fowler also says that there wasn't much momentum coming out of the NFL Combine this week that the Vikings will use the franchise tag on Darnold, who should have multiple suitors if he reaches the open market. The New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers could all be involved for a QB that won 14 games for the Vikes in 2024 and is the best option at the position on the market by a wide margin. Aside from Darnold, there's a real possibility Minnesota re-signs Daniel Jones (knee) as insurance for J.J. McCarthy (knee) in case last year's first-rounder needs more time. Fowler also points out that the Vikings interviewed Miami's Cam Ward at the Combine. All signs are pointing to Darnold not returning to Minnesota in 2025.
From RotoBaller
The New York Giants have been a team to watch on multiple fronts as they try to find an answer at quarterback, especially after striking out on Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford, according to league sources. One avenue for the Giants could be to trade up into the No. 1 overall draft spot to ensure they can secure their favorite QB option this year. The Tennessee Titans currently own the No. 1 pick, but there has been plenty of interest from teams wanting to move up into the top spot. If the G-Men don't outbid other teams to secure the No. 1 overall pick in this year's NFL draft, New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers is another option. The Giants have already spoken to Rodgers' representation about playing for their team once he's officially released by the Jets as a post-June 1 cut. There has been plenty of speculation that New York could draft a QB this year while also adding a veteran bridge signal-caller.
From RotoBaller
The Athletic's Dianna Russini reports that while the Cincinnati Bengals have made an offer to All-Pro wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase, the two sides remain far apart in extension talks for now. Chase is fully expected to reset the non-QB market after he and the Bengals were unable to agree on an extension before the start of the 2024 season, but Cincinnati appears to be prioritizing an extension with Tee Higgins first this offseason. Cincinnati is trying to keep all three of Chase, Higgins and defensive end Trey Hendrickson, but if they can't get deals done with all three, Hendrickson is most likely to be the odd man out. The 25-year-old Chase had the league's receiving Triple Crown in 2024 by leading the NFL in catches (127), receiving yards (1,708) and receiving touchdowns (17), making him deserving of being the highest-paid non-QB. He'll be the first receiver off the board in the first round in 2025 fantasy drafts.
From RotoBaller
