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Ultimate Fantasy Football Championship Est. 2011
FFL: Week 7 | NFL: Week 7

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Jacob Cowing Oct 21 3:00am ET
Jacob Cowing

San Francisco 49ers rookie wide receiver Jacob Cowing got his first career action in the passing game during a 28-18 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. The fourth-round pick had seen most of his work this year as a punt returner but became involved in the offense when Brandon Aiyuk (knee) and Deebo Samuel Sr. (illness) left near the end of the first half, and with Jauan Jennings already having been ruled out earlier in the week. Cowing finished with two receptions for 50 yards on three targets. One of those receptions was an important-at-the-time 41-yard fourth-quarter bomb. If Aiyuk's injury is a torn ACL as feared, Cowing will be a deep-league waiver target -- along with fellow rookie Ricky Pearsall. Pearsall has the long-term edge over Cowing based on Pearsall's first-round pedigree, but Cowing had a more impactful day and Pearsall hadn't played an NFL snap until today, including preseason. San Francisco will host the Dallas Cowboys in Week 8 on Sunday Night Football.

From RotoBaller

Alec Pierce Oct 21 1:40am ET
Alec Pierce

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce caught two of his five targets for 15 yards in the team's 16-10 win over the Miami Dolphins. Pierce led Indy in targets, tied with wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. Pierce and quarterback Anthony Richardson did connect on a 28-yard pass that nearly had him in the end zone, but the play was ultimately negated due to an illegal formation penalty. Pierce has been a very boom-or-bust option for fantasy managers and will likely continue to stay in a similar role moving forward. That being said, Pierce will have a more favorable matchup in Week 8 against the Houston Texans and can potentially be viewed as a WR4/5 option in the contest.

From RotoBaller

Matt Gay Oct 21 1:40am ET
Matt Gay

Indianapolis Colts kicker Matt Gay made all three of his field goals and connected on his only extra-point opportunity in the team's 16-10 win over the Miami Dolphins. Gay accounted for ten of Indy's six points, making a huge difference in Sunday's low-scoring contest. His longest field goal came from 52 yards out, with his other two coming from 22 and 38 yards out, respectively. Gay was 0/2 from 50+ yard attempts before Sunday's contest but was able to put one through in the second quarter. He'll look to build on his strong performance in Week 8 when the Colts take on the Houston Texans.

From RotoBaller

Josh Downs Oct 21 1:30am ET
Josh Downs

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs caught just one of his three targets for three yards in the team's 16-10 win over the Miami Dolphins. The Colts struggled to move the ball through the air throughout the contest, relying on their run game to help lead them to a win. Downs had seen some high-level production in previous weeks with quarterback Joe Flacco as the starter but has struggled to see a similar fantasy output with quarterback Anthony Richardson at the helm. The Dolphins' secondary has been a stingy unit so far this season, and Downs and company are in store for a better matchup in Week 8 against the Houston Texans. That being said, Downs can be viewed as a WR3/4 option in the contest.

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Adonai Mitchell Oct 21 1:30am ET
Adonai Mitchell

Indianapolis Colts rookie wide receiver Adonai Mitchell caught two of his three targets for 30 yards in the team's 16-10 win over the Miami Dolphins. Mitchell finished second in receiving yards for Indy, behind Michael Pittman Jr., who finished with 63. All of Indy's pass-catchers finished with underwhelming stat lines, given Miami's run funnel defense. Despite finishing second in yards, Mitchell continues to see a very low snap share, logging just 14 total snaps with six routes run in the matchup. While he has still seen production in the limited snaps, it does make him hard to trust as a viable option moving forward. The former Longhorn is likely off the radar in Week 8 when the Colts take on the Houston Texans.

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Michael Pittman Jr. Oct 21 1:20am ET
Michael Pittman Jr.

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. caught three of his five targets for 63 yards in the team's 16-10 win over the Miami Dolphins. Pittman accounted for almost half of Indianapolis' receiving yards on Sunday, with quarterback Anthony Richardson throwing for just 129 yards in the contest. Most of Pittman's production came from a 33-yard throw from Richardson in the first half that set up a field goal before the half expired. Like the rest of Indy's pass-catchers, their ceilings take quite a hit with Richardson as the starter, but Pittman showed today he still provides a solid floor and can be trusted moving forward. He can be viewed as a WR3 option in Week 8 when the Colts take on the Houston Texans.

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Anthony Richardson Oct 21 1:10am ET
Anthony Richardson

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson completed ten of his 24 passing attempts for 129 yards in the team's 16-10 win over the Miami Dolphins, throwing no touchdowns and no interceptions. Richardson found some success on the ground, running the ball 14 times for a team-high 56 yards, but did lose a fumble in the red zone in the first half. Richardson has struggled to put up big numbers through the air this season and hasn't seen incredibly high numbers on the ground to help compensate from a fantasy perspective. Fantasy managers can view Richardson as a low-end QB1 option in Week 8 when the Colts visit the Houston Texans.

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Trey Sermon Oct 21 1:10am ET
Trey Sermon

Indianapolis Colts running back Trey Sermon carried the ball eight times for 36 yards in the team's 16-10 win over the Miami Dolphins. Sermon also caught his only target for another 13 yards through the air. Sermon took a backseat to running back Tyler Goodson in Sunday's matchup, being out-touched 14-to-nine, marking the first time Goodson had the higher opportunity share since the two overtook the backfield in Jonathan Taylor's (ankle) absence. Sermon had some issues with efficiency in the previous week but improved on that, averaging 4.5 yards per carry on Sunday. Sermon's fantasy value does take quite a hit with Goodson's expanded role, and the two may both be off the radar in Week 8 if Taylor were to return. If Taylor sits out again in Week 8 against the Houston Texans, Sermon can be viewed as a RB3/4 option.

From RotoBaller

Chris Boswell Oct 21 1:00am ET
Chris Boswell

Pittsburgh Steelers kicker Chris Boswell nailed all three of his field goal attempts and converted on all four of his extra-point tries in a 37-15 victory against the New York Jets. The Steelers offense got off to a slow start but quickly picked up momentum, pushing the ball downfield and generating an abundance of opportunities for Boswell. He has been one of the most reliable kickers in the NFL this season and has provided value for fantasy purposes. If Pittsburgh can continue putting up points at this rate, Boswell will project as a must-start on a weekly basis. He can be confidently deployed against the New York Giants in Week 8.

From RotoBaller

Beanie Bishop Jr. Oct 21 1:00am ET
Beanie Bishop Jr.

The Pittsburgh Steelers logged one sack, two interceptions, one forced fumble, and a blocked field goal while surrendering 15 points to the New York Jets in a Week 7 victory. Pittsburgh's pass rush was surprisingly held in check on Sunday night, but its secondary came through with a game-changing performance. Undrafted rookie cornerback Beanie Bishop Jr. picked off quarterback Aaron Rodgers twice and nearly scored while returning an interception in the third quarter. The Steelers DST has been steady for fantasy purposes through seven weeks and will remain a must-start option against the New York Giants in Week 8.

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Tyler Goodson Oct 21 12:50am ET
Tyler Goodson

Indianapolis Colts running back Tyler Goodson ran the ball 14 times for 51 yards and a touchdown in the team's 16-10 win over the Miami Dolphins. Goodson out-touched running back Trey Sermon for the first time since Jonathan Taylor (ankle) has been out, seeing 14 carries to Sermon's eight. Goodson was productive, breaking away multiple chunk runs that eventually led to a first-half touchdown. If Taylor is out again in Week 8 against the Houston Texans, fantasy managers can look to Goodson as a viable RB2 option, given his increased workload.

From RotoBaller

Christian Kirk Oct 21 12:50am ET
Christian Kirk

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Christian Kirk turned three targets into just one catch for 24 yards during Sunday's Week 7 win over the New England Patriots in London. The 27-year-old has underperformed over his last two games, tallying just four catches and 63 yards during that span. Immediately upon returning stateside next week, he gets a tough matchup against a very tough Green Bay Packers secondary. Fantasy managers should leave Kirk on the bench in 12-team leagues.

From RotoBaller

Gabriel Davis Oct 21 12:50am ET
Gabriel Davis

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Gabe Davis was targeted twice during Sunday's Week 7 win over the New England Patriots in London. He finished with just one catch for 13 yards, representing a massive step backward from Week 6 when he totaled five catches, 45 yards, and two touchdowns. Brian Thomas Jr. and Evan Engram have cemented themselves as Trevor Lawrence's favorite targets, leaving Davis and Christian Kirk fighting for the scraps in Jacksonville's passing attack. Neither Davis nor Kirk are dependable fantasy options when the Jaguars return stateside to face a tough Green Bay Packers secondary in Week 8.

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George Pickens Oct 21 12:40am ET
George Pickens

Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens hauled in five receptions for 111 yards and a touchdown on nine targets in a 37-15 victory over the New York Jets. With Russell Wilson starting at quarterback, Pickens was consistently given opportunities downfield. He came down with multiple highlight-reel grabs and found pay dirt for the first time this season on an 11-yard fade route near the end of the second quarter. While Pickens was clearly the favorite target of Justin Fields, his skillset seems to better align with Wilson's strengths, which include stretching the field vertically. The 23-year-old should find himself back in fantasy WR2 territory next week in a bout with the New York Giants.

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Will Reichard Oct 21 12:40am ET
Will Reichard

Minnesota Vikings kicker Will Reichard went 3-for-3 on field goals and 2-for-2 on extra points during Sunday's Week 7 loss to the Detroit Lions. Although Minnesota lost, Reichard kept the Vikings in the game with another perfect effort, hitting key field goals from 42, 48, and 57 yards out. He has been extremely accurate through six games in his rookie campaign, converting all 12 of his field goal attempts and all 18 of his extra point attempts. Moving forward, Reichard is a reliable top-12 kicking option in fantasy football given his accuracy, power, and Minnesota's scoring tendencies.

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Pat Freiermuth Oct 21 12:40am ET
Pat Freiermuth

Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth logged two receptions for 51 yards on three targets in a 37-15 win over the New York Jets. Freiermuth was surprisingly given fewer opportunities than fellow tight end Darnell Washington, who earned a career-high four targets. Still, Freiermuth outgained Washington and was extremely effective with limited touches. He turned a short completion from Russell Wilson into a 30-yard gain in the second quarter and later came down with a 21-yard deep ball. Pittsburgh's passing attack was more aggressive and fast-paced with Wilson at the helm, which should prove beneficial to Freiermuth going forward. He'll remain on the fantasy radar for a Week 8 meeting with the New York Giants.

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Brian Thomas Jr. Oct 21 12:30am ET
Brian Thomas Jr.

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. caught all five of his targets for 89 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's Week 7 win over the New England Patriots in London. He also added two rushing yards on two attempts. The rookie was the Jaguars' most productive pass-catcher as they recorded their second win in the last three weeks. Not only did he find the end zone, but he also delivered a 58-yard reception to put the Jaguars on the edge of the red zone late in the first half. Thomas should continue to be treated as a solid WR2 option in fantasy football, including next week when the Jaguars return stateside to face the Green Bay Packers.

From RotoBaller

Evan Engram Oct 21 12:30am ET
Evan Engram

Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram caught all five of his targets for 35 yards during Sunday's Week 7 win over the New England Patriots in London. The veteran pass-catcher has been quite productive in two weeks since returning from injury, catching 15 passes for 137 yards during that span. One would have to imagine that his strong stretch of games will continue when the Jaguars return stateside to face the Green Bay Packers next week. After all, Engram is looking like the Jaguars' second-best pass-catcher behind Brian Thomas Jr. Fantasy managers should treat the 30-year-old as a mid-to-low TE1 option in fantasy football.

From RotoBaller

D'Ernest Johnson Oct 21 12:30am ET
D'Ernest Johnson

Jacksonville Jaguars running back D'Ernest Johnson rushed for 38 yards on nine carries during Sunday's Week 7 win over the New England Patriots in London. He also got involved as a pass-catcher, hauling in three of his four targets for an additional 32 receiving yards. While Johnson operated as the clear backup to Tank Bigsby on Sunday, it was promising to see him stay productive while earning double-digit touches. With that said, his usage could decrease in a more negative game script scenario, such as next week versus the Green Bay Packers. Johnson is worth monitoring on the fantasy radar, but managers can't justify starting him in 12-team leagues yet.

From RotoBaller

Jalen Nailor Oct 21 12:30am ET
Jalen Nailor

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jalen Nailor caught four of his five targets for 76 receiving yards during Sunday's Week 7 loss to the Detroit Lions. Nailor operated as the Vikings' No. 3 receiver, but he still played 73.3 percent of the offensive snaps and was clearly heavily involved in the passing attack. In fact, Nailor had more targets, receptions, and yards than Jordan Addison, and he came just five receiving yards shy of Justin Jefferson's Week 7 mark. It's not often that you can plug a team's No. 3 receiver into your fantasy lineups, but Nailor has become an appealing option ahead of Week 8 versus a suspect Los Angeles Rams defense.

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