Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 9
The Denver Broncos defense/special teams has surprisingly been a top-five fantasy unit through eight weeks of 2024, but managers should lower their expectations in Week 9 against the high-powered Baltimore Ravens on the road. Denver's D has allowed the third-fewest points per game (15.0), but Baltimore's offense has put up 30.3 points per game, the most in football. The game will likely be decided by whether the Broncos' defense can stop a Ravens ground game that leads the league with 200 rushing yards per game. Denver's defense and play-calling has been mighty impressive this year, but they'll have a tall task on their hands in slowing down both quarterback Lamar Jackson and running back Derrick Henry. We certainly wouldn't recommend Denver's D/ST in DFS against a Ravens offense that has been the third-worst matchup for defensive units this year.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos kicker Wil Lutz will be looking for a bounce-back performance in Week 9 versus the Baltimore Ravens in Week 9 after making just four extra points the week prior in a 28-14 win over the Carolina Panthers. Lutz certainly has it in him in a Broncos offense that has looked much more efficient in the last few weeks under rookie QB Bo Nix. The 30-year-old veteran kicker has missed just one of his 18 field-goal tries and is a perfect 16-for-16 on extra points in eight weeks in 2024 to make him the No. 5 fantasy kicker in overall points. Lutz always has bust potential in fantasy, but the opportunity is certainly there going up against a Ravens defense that is tied for the 11th-most fantasy points allowed to kickers per game. Baltimore's struggling defense gives Lutz a safer floor as a streaming option in deeper fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Michael Wilson would be a risky flex play in Week 9 when the Cardinals host the Chicago Bears. Wilson has recently put together some solid fantasy performances, including a five-catch, 31-yard, and one-touchdown game against the Miami Dolphins in Week 8. Although he is becoming more involved in the Cardinals' passing offense, he remains a touchdown-dependent fantasy player. With the Cardinals facing the stout Bears defense, there may be fewer scoring opportunities for the offense, which could limit production. However, Wilson is still capable of delivering a solid fantasy outing. He would be a risky flex option for managers in Week 9.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride remains a must-start in fantasy lineups heading into Week 9 against the Chicago Bears. McBride is putting together one of the best fantasy seasons we have seen from a Cardinals tight end in quite some time. He ranks in the top five tight ends in fantasy this season, despite not having caught a touchdown pass yet. McBride is the focal point of the Arizona Cardinals' passing game and their go-to player on critical third downs. With quarterback Kyler Murray throwing to McBride, there is a high expected volume nearly every week. There is no reason not to start Trey McBride moving forward.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos tight end Adam Trautman came out of nowhere to catch all four of his targets for 85 yards and his first touchdown of the year in the Week 8 win over the Carolina Panthers, but fantasy managers shouldn't be tricked into thinking he's a good TE2 streaming option as the Broncos head on the road to take on the Baltimore Ravens in Week 9. Before last Sunday's impressive performance, Trautman had just two catches for 32 yards in the first seven weeks. In addition to Trautman, TE Lucas Krull caught both of his targets for 18 yards. The 27-year-old is rostered in 0% of Yahoo leagues despite his big Week 8 stat line and the fact that a struggling Ravens defense has allowed the eight-most half-PPR fantasy points to the position this year. It's a long shot that Trautman will stand out for fantasy managers a second straight week.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. ranks as a mid-tier WR2 when the Cardinals host the Chicago Bears in Week 9. Harrison Jr. finally got back into the mix in the Week 8 win over the Miami Dolphins, recording six catches for 111 yards and a touchdown. This performance came against the Dolphins, who rank in the top five for opposing fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Although Harrison Jr. is currently second in targets behind Cardinals tight end Trey McBride, he remains an important piece of their passing offense. The Bears rank in the top ten in fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers, but this may be misleading, as Harrison Jr. will have a size advantage over the Bears' cornerbacks. He should be back in fantasy managers' starting lineups heading into Week 9.
From RotoBaller
There's a reason Denver Broncos wide receiver Lil'Jordan Humphrey is rostered in 0% of Yahoo Leagues. He has caught only 19 passes for 177 yards with no touchdowns on 27 targets in eight games this season. With that being said, he has played more lately and has six catches for 34 yards on nine targets the last two games with Josh Reynolds (finger) still on Injured Reserve. Humphrey caught four passes for 22 yards on six targets, which was second on the team behind Courtland Sutton, in the Week 8 win over the Carolina Panthers. He also played the second-most snaps among Denver's wideouts behind Sutton. The 26-year-old is a desperation, boom/bust flex play in the deepest of fantasy leagues, although there's boom potential in Week 9 versus a Baltimore Ravens secondary that is allowing the most passing yards per game in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos running back Jaleel McLaughlin has more total touchdowns (three) than backfield mate Javonte Williams in eight games in 2024, but that doesn't mean he's a recommended fantasy play heading into a Week 9 road date against the Baltimore Ravens. McLaughlin had eight carries for a team-high 47 yards while catching his lone target for a nine-yard touchdown reception (his second of the year) in last week's win over the Carolina Panthers. The 24-year-old's 56 scrimmage yards were a season-high in an excellent matchup, proving exactly why he has such low fantasy floor. Denver's offense has improved of late, but McLaughlin just isn't getting enough volume to be considered as more than an RB4/flex in deeper fantasy leagues. McLaughlin will also be facing a Ravens defense that has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game this year at 69.9.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints running back Jamaal Williams (groin) won't play on Sunday against the Carolina Panthers. The veteran was doubtful, so most had already assumed he wouldn't be on the field for the divisional clash. But with Kendre Miller (hamstring) landing on the Injured Reserve list, Alvin Kamara should see more than his usual allotment of carries, which makes him an even bigger threat against a Panthers defense that has struggled all year. There's also a chance Taysom Hill and Jordan Mims get some action out of the backfield, giving them some value for those in need of a desperation streaming option.
From RotoBaller
Can Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton stack back-to-back big games in Week 9 against the Baltimore Ravens after catching a season-high eight of 11 targets for a season-high 100 receiving yards in last Sunday's 28-14 victory over the Carolina Panthers? We think so. He'll be a strong WR3/flex option for fantasy managers this Sunday against a Ravens defense that has allowed the second-most half-PPR fantasy points to receivers per game this year and the most passing yards per game. The 29-year-old got the squeaky-wheel treatment after not seeing a single target in the Week 7 win over the New Orleans Saints. With quarterback Bo Nix playing the best football of his first NFL season, look for him to target Sutton early and often against a shaky Ravens secondary in a game in which the Broncos may need to open it up through the air to keep up on the scoreboard.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. was elevated off the practice squad ahead of Sunday's NFC East meeting with the New York Giants. The promotion to the main roster doesn't mean fantasy managers should rush to add the 25-year-old. Instead, it could mean Brian Robinson Jr. (hamstring) won't be on the field in Week 9. Of course, there is still time for Robinson to turn it around and play. But if Robinson isn't available, Austin Ekeler would draw a favorable matchup versus a Giants defense that has struggled against opposing running backs in the last few weeks, with Jeremy McNichols likely to get his scraps out of the backfield.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Christian Kirk (collarbone) was placed on the Injured Reserve list on Saturday. The wideout was already in line to miss the remainder of the 2024-25 campaign, so the latest move is just a formality. Kirk will officially finish the year by catching 27 passes for 379 yards and one touchdown. But after totaling eight touchdowns in 2022-23, his production has significantly declined over the last few seasons. With the injury and decrease in statistical output, his fantasy value will likely take a substantial hit entering 2025-26, no matter what uniform he is wearing. At any rate, to fill the void, the Jaguars elevated Austin Trammell and Elijah Cooks from the practice squad, although Brian Thomas Jr. (chest), who is questionable for Week 9 against the Eagles, should continue to lead the way offensively, barring further injury.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver DJ Chark (groin) was activated from the injured reserve list on Saturday. The veteran wideout has been sidelined since the preseason because of a groin injury. However, even though there is potential for Chark to get work versus the Cleveland Browns, fantasy managers may want to pump the brakes before putting him in the lineup, especially with Quentin Johnston (ankle) back in the mix after missing time with an ankle injury.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan (hamstring) is questionable for Monday night's encounter with the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bucs are hurting, with Chris Godwin (ankle) and Mike Evans (hamstring) on the shelf. To make matters worse, Bucky Irving (toe) and Sterling Shepard (hamstring) may be sidelined for Week 9. With that in mind, McMillan has a chance to see more attention from Baker Mayfield versus the Chiefs, especially if Irving or Shepard don't play. Yet, if McMillan can't suit up, Trey Palmer, Ryan Miller, and Cade Otton would draw starting fantasy consideration.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving (toe) is questionable for Monday night's matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs. He missed a few practices throughout the week and returned for a limited session on Saturday. The 22-year-old has played relatively well this season, amassing 395 yards and three touchdowns off 76 carries, adding 20 catches for 164 yards. While Irving should continue to split time out of the backfield with Rachaad White, the injuries to Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (ankle) could continue to get him more attention from Baker Mayfield. Fantasy managers will be taking a chance by keeping him in the starting lineup, considering the Bucs and Chiefs will meet well after all of the Week 9 games have been played. But if he's out there, he's at least a flex option, especially for those participating in PPR formats.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Sterling Shepard (hamstring) is questionable for the Week 9 meeting with the Kansas City Chiefs. Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (ankle) are on the shelf, so there are opportunities for others to get involved. However, Shepard may not be one of them, with the veteran wideout missing a few practices throughout the week after tweaking his hamstring in Sunday's loss to the Atlanta Falcons. If Shepard plays, he could be rostered for streaming purposes, although he'll be a risky option for fantasy managers. But if he doesn't, Cade Otton, Jalen McMillan, and Trey Palmer would be the favorites to see more attention from Baker Mayfield.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams didn't take advantage of a plus matchup in the Week 8 win over the Carolina Panthers, rushing 17 times or 44 yards, although he did have a season-high 21 touches. Meanwhile, Jaleel McLaughlin led in rushing and scored again. Williams' best game of 2024 came the week prior against the New Orleans Saints, when he scored his first two touchdowns of the year. Denver's offense has improved under rookie QB Bo Nix of late, but Williams' big Week 8 performance could prove to be more of an outlier. The Broncos could be forced to pass often against Baltimore's strong defense this weekend, although Williams has been plenty involved in the passing attack in 2024, catching at least three passes in each of the last four weeks. He's in play as an RB3/flex in fantasy against a Baltimore defense that has been more vulnerable on the ground recently.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott won't play on Sunday versus the Atlanta Falcons. He didn't travel with the team, with the Cowboys declaring him inactive due to disciplinary reasons. The 29-year-old hasn't been productive during the 2024-25 campaign, totaling only 149 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, meaning there aren't many who will be directly impacted by the news. Rico Dowdle (illness) will be back in the mix after missing Sunday night's meeting with the 49ers, so he'll lessen most of the blow caused by Elliott's absence. Dalvin Cook, elevated off the practice squad on Saturday, should also get some work in Week 9, although not enough to be relevant in most fantasy formats.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix heads into a Week 9 showdown on the road against the Baltimore Ravens after throwing for a season-high 284 yards and three touchdowns to take advantage of a cushy matchup versus the Carolina Panthers. Facing the Ravens on the road surely won't be an easy task, but Nix does line up for another plus matchup from a fantasy perspective, as Baltimore's struggling defense has allowed the third-most fantasy points to QBs in 2024 and the most passing yards per game (291.4). Nix and Denver's offense started the year off very slow and inconsistent, but they've found their footing as Nix continues to show improvement in his first year. The 24-year-old from Oregon is suddenly the QB10 in overall fantasy scoring after eight weeks and has thrown just one interception in the last six weeks after throwing four in his first two games in the league.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo projects to be a risky option heading into Week 9 when he faces the New England Patriots. The 25-year-old has yet to eclipse double-digit PPR points this season and has averaged a mere 5.0 PPR points per game. However, he did a season-high five targets last weekend but could only bring in two of them. However, with wide receiver Tyler Boyd (shoulder) listed as questionable, Okonkwo could emerge as the No.3 option in the passing attack behind Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Even though he could see a modest workload, he is best off leaving out of your lineup given his inconsistencies this season.
From RotoBaller