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FFL: Preseason | NFL: Week 1

WR Strength of Schedule

Fri May 31 10:52am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Lamb could top last season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the receiver position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to receivers last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the receivers with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the receivers that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  WR SOS  
1. Denver Broncos 531.34
2. Los Angeles Chargers 536.08
3. Miami Dolphins 537.31
4. Kansas City Chiefs 549.96
5. Las Vegas Raiders 552.89
6. Pittsburgh Steelers 554.85
7. New England Patriots 555.93
8. Buffalo Bills 556.13
9. Houston Texans 561.75
10. San Francisco 49ers 565.73
11. New Orleans Saints 566.06
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 566.19
13. Cincinnati Bengals 566.32
14. Jacksonville Jaguars 570.07
15. Baltimore Ravens 571.77
16. Seattle Seahawks 573.41
17. Minnesota Vikings 573.91
18. Philadelphia Eagles 574.46
19. Carolina Panthers 575.49
20. Los Angeles Rams 575.79
21. Washington Commanders 575.91
22. Detroit Lions 576.36
23. Atlanta Falcons 577.76
24. New York Jets 577.99
25. Tennessee Titans 578.06
26. Indianapolis Colts 578.18
27. Cleveland Browns 583.5
28. Arizona Cardinals 586.09
29. New York Giants 586.93
30. Chicago Bears 601.21
31. Dallas Cowboys 608.4
32. Green Bay Packers 610.22

 

The Packers have the easiest fantasy schedule for receivers. Jayden Reed and Christian Watson could be setup for career best seasons with this schedule. These are guys you can get a little later come draft day and mid-round options that could be difference makers for fantasy owners.

CeeDee Lamb is considered the No. 1 overall fantasy receiver for many and his schedule helps make that claim even stronger. Lamb has the second most favorable schedule for receivers. Lamb was huge last year and could improve on that even more, especially since the Cowboys could struggle to run the ball with their current options.

The Bears, Giants and Cardinals also round out the top-five most favorable receiver schedules. Chicago has a great trio of receivers with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze.  These guys could produce big as long as rookie Caleb Williams gets the job done at quarterback in year one. Moore has more to compete with for targets this year, but you still have to like his chances for a big season in year two with the Bears.

The Giants and Cardinals both have some question marks at receiver, but a couple rookies lead the way for both teams. Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison could have big rookie seasons with their new teams. These guys both have a chance to lead all rookie fantasy receivers in scoring.

On the opposite side of things, the Broncos have the most challenging schedule for receivers. The Broncos have all sorts of questions at receiver outside of Courtland Sutton. This is a unit of receivers you just might want to avoid come draft day. This schedule won’t make anything easier for this group.

The Chargers are a similar team to the Broncos, having openings and questions at receiver. So once again, it might be best to let someone else put Chargers receivers on their roster. Plus, the Chargers could be a lot more run heavy with a new coach running the show. The tough schedule and new offense make taking any Chargers receiver a bit of a risk.

There are two really good offenses on the list that have tough schedules for receivers. Both the Dolphins and Chiefs have a top-five least favorable schedule for receivers. The Dolphins have one of the best receiver duos in football, so it is tough to fade them because of this schedule. Both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should be able to produce big numbers once again in this offense.

The Chiefs are a little more concerning. This offense is a little matchup proof, but don’t have that elite receiver on their roster. Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown lead the way. Brown hasn’t been great in recent seasons and Rice is facing a suspension. These guys will carry some risk come draft day, especially after seeing this schedule.

Davante Adams is usually another star receiver that is matchup proof, but you have to wonder a little this year. He has some question marks at quarterback, which could hurt his production when you pair it with this schedule. Adams is dealing with the fifth toughest fantasy schedule for receivers.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy receivers. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the receivers with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  WR PLAYOFF SOS  
1. Los Angeles Rams 501.93
2. Jacksonville Jaguars 515.53
3. Kansas City Chiefs 519.43
4. New York Giants 521.63
5. Miami Dolphins 532.77
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 534.53
7. Houston Texans 538
8. Buffalo Bills 540.87
9. Las Vegas Raiders 541.9
10. Carolina Panthers 549.33
11. Cincinnati Bengals 552.17
12. Detroit Lions 553.73
13. Arizona Cardinals 555.27
14. Cleveland Browns 555.4
15. Minnesota Vikings 560.93
16. New England Patriots 573.03
17. Los Angeles Chargers 573.1
18. Tennessee Titans 575.17
19. Baltimore Ravens 581.27
20. Seattle Seahawks 585.08
21. New York Jets 585.5
22. Denver Broncos 587.2
23. Pittsburgh Steelers 587.8
24. Philadelphia Eagles 589.73
25. Green Bay Packers 590.85
26. Washington Commanders 591.57
27. New Orleans Saints 604.13
28. Dallas Cowboys 609.73
29. Indianapolis Colts 614
30. San Francisco 49ers 641.53
31. Atlanta Falcons 644.93
32. Chicago Bears 647.98

 

The Bears and Cowboys are the teams that make both the top five easiest receiver schedules for both the regular season and playoffs. Chicago has the easiest for the entire playoffs. Once again, their top trio of receivers are looking pretty good come draft day.

Lamb continues to make his case to be the first receiver selected come draft day. He could have a monster season and finish strong as well with the fifth easiest schedule for the playoffs. Lamb might be the most surefire first-round pick come draft day.

The Falcons, 49ers and Colts also have a top-five favorable playoff schedule for receivers. Atlanta receivers were looking up to begin with, getting a legit quarterback throwing them passes this year. And this schedule makes their options look even better, especially Drake London. He could have a breakout season.

San Francisco has great options at receiver in Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. They are pretty safe picks come draft day. And they get a very favorable playoff schedule that could make them even more appealing to fantasy owners. These guys both have really solid floors come draft day in this offense.

Michael Pittman keeps getting it done as the No. 1 option for the Colts. If Anthony Richardson can become that true No. 1 at quarterback for Indy, Pittman would look even better. Pittman has produced in recent year despite having some quarterback issues. His game could go to a higher level this year if Richardson breaks out. Pittman could be a league winner if everything breaks his way in 2024.

The Chiefs and Dolphins are two of the best offenses in football but also the only two teams to make the top five most unfavorable receiver schedules for both the regular season and playoffs. This is a tad concerning for both teams, Again, it is tough to bet against Hill, but maybe you drop him down your rankings just few spots behind the other elite guys because of this. You hate to use an early round pick on a receiver to see him maybe not produce what he should come playoff time.

And as mentioned with the Chiefs, their top two receivers already face a few question marks, so maybe their tough schedules make them players to let someone else draft. Both Brown and Rice could be a little erratic.

The Rams actually have the toughest playoff schedule for receivers. They are another team with two of the best receivers in football. It is tough to bet against either Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp, but the playoff schedule is a little scary, especially for Kupp. He seems to be trending down at this stage of his career.

The Jaguars and Giants are the two other teams with a top-five unfavorable fantasy schedule for the playoffs. The Jags have Christian Kirk and Gabriel Davis as their top two receivers. Kirk is normally pretty steady but Davis can be boom or bust. Seeing his playoff schedule should bump him down a few spots in your rankings. It could be more of the same for Davis with his new team.

And the Giants are an outlier here, having an easy schedule for receivers during the regular season but the fourth toughest for the playoffs. This makes it tough come draft day. Their receivers could be good values for the regular season but disappoint when it counts. You do have to just make the playoffs, though, so we aren’t sure we shy away from Giant receivers just because of their tough playoff schedule. You still might be able to get good value with their options that help you win during the season.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Antonio Gibson Jul 23 7:40pm ET
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New England Patriots running back Antonio Gibson (undisclosed) was placed on the active/NFI list to start training camp. The 26-year-old was added to the Patriots backfield as a depth piece and potential third-down running back. Gibson has been relatively durable throughout his career. He has played in at least 15 games in three straight seasons. Players are often placed on the NFI list during training camp, so this could turn out to be nothing, but it is worth monitoring. Gibson had a career-low in carries (65), rushing yards (265), and rushing touchdowns (1) in 2023 as he ceded the starting running back job to Brian Robinson Jr. Gibson is joining a Patriots team amid a considerable rebuild, especially on offense. Gibson's skills as a pass-catcher should come in handy in 2024, but the presence of incumbent Rhamondre Stevenson will likely once again limit Gibson's rushing upside. Generally, running backs on bad offense perform poorly for fantasy, so it may be best to look in another direction as you build out RB depth during your draft.

From RotoBaller

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Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford took the field on Tuesday at the team's training camp. Stafford was noticeably absent from Monday's practice due to a contract dispute involving a guaranteed money structure. It would appear that it only took one day for the Rams and Stafford to come to an agreement. Stafford finished 2023 with 3,965 passing yards and 24 touchdowns in 15 games. Stafford helped propel Puka Nacua to his stellar WR4 finish. While Stafford only finished as the QB15, he got hot down the stretch with excellent games between Weeks 13 and 16. Stafford's days as a potential weekly fantasy starter are likely gone, but he could have some streaming value and is an excellent second quarterback in superflex leagues.

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Tyjae Spears Jul 23 7:00pm ET
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Tennessee Titans running backs Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard appear poised to split reps in 2024. While discussing a potential starter at running back, new head coach Brian Callahan indicated that both players could be interchangeable and may even share the field simultaneously. It affirms what many of us suspected heading into training camp, which is that this backfield will likely be roughly a 50/50 split. Both players have similar skill sets and are electric to watch when they get hot. Their speed will be a necessity given that the Titans enter the season with the 30th-ranked offensive line, according to PFF. Both players will leech each other's fantasy value in 2024. If second-year quarterback Will Levis can take a solid step forward, the dump-off opportunities could be there for both players if the running lanes are clogged. Each player is drafted outside the top-24 running backs in fantasy drafts, which is in line with RotoBaller's running back rankings that have Pollard as the RB25 while Spears is RB30.

From RotoBaller

Odell Beckham Jr. Jul 23 6:40pm ET
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Miami Dolphins wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (undisclosed) appears to be working through minor injuries to start training camp. The Dolphins placed Beckham on the active/PUP list on Tuesday. Tom Pelissero of the NFL Network indicated that this appears to be minor and part of the plan to ease Beckham back into football. After all, Beckham is a 31-year-old wide receiver who has not played a full season since 2019. After catching 35 balls for 565 yards and three touchdowns with the Ravens in 2023, Beckham will look to be a solid third option in the high-flying Miami offense in 2024. Unfortunately, the days of extreme production from Beckham are likely behind us. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will undoubtedly steal the show in this offense when healthy. Not to mention, rookie Malik Washington could see significant playing time. It is better to pass on Beckham in fantasy this year, but the veteran remains an option in best ball or deep-league formats.

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Tyler Higbee Jul 23 6:40pm ET
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Odell Beckham Jr. Jul 23 4:13pm ET
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Miami Dolphins WR Odell Beckham Jr. (undisclosed) was placed on the Active/Physically Unable to Perform list on Tuesday, July 23.

Fantasy Spin: Beckham is reportedly "working through minor things" and his absence is not expected to be lengthy. In the meantime, it should give rookie Malik Washington a chance to make his case to win some early-season reps. Beckham is unlikely to be all that relevant in fantasy in 2024 barring an injury to Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle. Even if one of those players missed extended time, Beckham has not proven to be durable enough to be worth much of a gamble in fantasy.

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Fantasy Spin: There is no word yet on the details, but it seems reasonable that Stafford will join the $50 million/season club at quarterback. Few quarterbacks closed the season out better than Stafford, who averaged 284 yards passing and threw for 15 touchdowns versus only three interceptions over his final six games. The 35-year-old has never been much of a threat with his legs, but he could still push for low-end QB1 numbers in what should easily be a top-10 offense in 2024.

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Amari Cooper Jul 23 3:23pm ET
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Cleveland Browns WR Amari Cooper reported to the start of training camp after the team handed him a $5 million raise and guaranteed his original base salary of $20 million on Tuesday, July 23.

Fantasy Spin: Cooper has been a durable and strong WR2 fantasy asset virtually every season since joining the NFL in 2015. His production was a bit more inconsistent last season as Cleveland rotated through multiple quarterbacks, but managers witnessed the kind of upside he possesses when he burned the Houston Texans for 265 yards and two touchdowns in Week 16 last year. Assuming Deshaun Watson can stay healthy more often in 2024, Cooper should finish as a top 15 fantasy receiver.

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George Kittle Jul 23 3:10pm ET
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San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (groin) is fully healthy for the start of the team's training camp on Tuesday. Kittle dropped to 214 pounds, a 30-pound loss, after his core muscle surgery because he wasn't able to work, but he's now back up to his playing weight of 240-243 pounds. While the 29-year-old star tight end tends to be boom-or-bust from a fantasy perspective, he still totaled 65 catches on 90 targets for 1,020 yards and six touchdowns overall across 16 appearances in San Fran in 2023 and remains one of the game's top-tier options at the position. If star wideout Brandon Aiyuk ultimately has his trade request satisfied ahead of the regular season, Kittle's floor would become more stable as more of an offensive focal point in the Niners' high-octane attack.

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San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle told reporters on Tuesday, July 23, that his weight dropped to 214 pounds this offseason as he recovered from core muscle surgery. He has since returned to his normal playing weight of 243 pounds.

Fantasy Spin: That is a huge weight swing over the course of a few months, so fantasy managers could be forgiven if they choose to downgrade him a bit due to the likelihood of injury - especially considering he will turn 31 in October. With that said, few tight ends possess his upside. The best play for pro-Kittle managers is probably to pair him with a high-floor tight end such as Tyler Conklin in the later rounds. Even though he will be a hit-or-miss option, Kittle's upside keeps him firmly in the TE1 discussion.

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New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara has reported for training camp despite leaving the team's minicamp early. Kamara's agent confirmed at the time that the running back's departure from minicamp was contract-related. Kamara's deal runs through 2025, and his appearance at camp should quell any speculation among fantasy managers that he was preparing for some kind of holdout. The five-time Pro Bowler caught a career-high 87.2% of his passes in 2023, but he's entering his age-29 season and has watched his rushing efficiency dip in each of the past three years. Despite having to share touches with Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller, however, Kamara still projects as a fine RB2 in PPR setups after closing as the overall RB3 in full-PPR points per game over 13 contests last year.

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Alvin Kamara Jul 23 2:43pm ET
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New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara reported for the start of training camp despite his frustration over his contract situation, according to sources.

Fantasy Spin: Kamara skipped some of the team's mandatory minicamp practices, but it appears there will be no drama regarding his contract for now. The bigger question for Kamara is how he fits into new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak's scheme and how much work he will lose to 2023 draft pick Kendre Miller. Kamara's pass-game role should remain a key part of the offense, so fantasy managers should feel relatively good about his ability to deliver at a RB2 level.

From TheHuddle

Ricky Pearsall Jul 23 2:40pm ET
Ricky Pearsall

San Francisco 49ers rookie wide receiver Ricky Pearsall (hamstring) will open training camp on the non-football injury list. Pearsall has a hamstring injury, and while the severity of the issue remains unclear, general manager John Lynch expects Pearsall to miss the first week of camp practices. Last year, the 23-year-old wideout caught 65 of his 90 targets for 965 yards and four touchdowns across 12 games at Florida and was chosen by the Niners with the No. 31 pick in the draft this spring. Although hamstring issues always have a chance to linger, Pearsall's fantasy stock still hangs in the balance with star receiver Brandon Aiyuk still having an outstanding trade request out of San Francisco. Pearsall remains in play as a late-round flier and still has plenty of time to get fully healthy for preseason action, which doesn't begin until Aug. 10 against the hosting Tennessee Titans.

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Greg Dulcich Jul 23 2:30pm ET
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Courtland Sutton Jul 23 2:13pm ET
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Denver Broncos WR Courtland Sutton intends to report to the start of training camp despite his desire to receive a contract extension, according to comments from head coach Sean Payton on Tuesday, July 23.

Fantasy Spin: It has been an eventful offseason for Sutton, but it appears as if he will enter the preseason where he was at the end of the last season: as the Broncos' unquestioned top receiver. The biggest difference this year is that he is unlikely to benefit from the same kind of trust throws that Russell Wilson afforded him at times in 2023. Expect a mostly conservative offense led by either Jarrett Stidham or rookie first-round pick Bo Nix, which figures to make Sutton more of a hit-or-miss WR3 option in fantasy most weeks.

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