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FFL: Offseason | NFL: Week 18

WR Strength of Schedule

Fri May 31 10:52am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Lamb could top last season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the receiver position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to receivers last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the receivers with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the receivers that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  WR SOS  
1. Denver Broncos 531.34
2. Los Angeles Chargers 536.08
3. Miami Dolphins 537.31
4. Kansas City Chiefs 549.96
5. Las Vegas Raiders 552.89
6. Pittsburgh Steelers 554.85
7. New England Patriots 555.93
8. Buffalo Bills 556.13
9. Houston Texans 561.75
10. San Francisco 49ers 565.73
11. New Orleans Saints 566.06
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 566.19
13. Cincinnati Bengals 566.32
14. Jacksonville Jaguars 570.07
15. Baltimore Ravens 571.77
16. Seattle Seahawks 573.41
17. Minnesota Vikings 573.91
18. Philadelphia Eagles 574.46
19. Carolina Panthers 575.49
20. Los Angeles Rams 575.79
21. Washington Commanders 575.91
22. Detroit Lions 576.36
23. Atlanta Falcons 577.76
24. New York Jets 577.99
25. Tennessee Titans 578.06
26. Indianapolis Colts 578.18
27. Cleveland Browns 583.5
28. Arizona Cardinals 586.09
29. New York Giants 586.93
30. Chicago Bears 601.21
31. Dallas Cowboys 608.4
32. Green Bay Packers 610.22

 

The Packers have the easiest fantasy schedule for receivers. Jayden Reed and Christian Watson could be setup for career best seasons with this schedule. These are guys you can get a little later come draft day and mid-round options that could be difference makers for fantasy owners.

CeeDee Lamb is considered the No. 1 overall fantasy receiver for many and his schedule helps make that claim even stronger. Lamb has the second most favorable schedule for receivers. Lamb was huge last year and could improve on that even more, especially since the Cowboys could struggle to run the ball with their current options.

The Bears, Giants and Cardinals also round out the top-five most favorable receiver schedules. Chicago has a great trio of receivers with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze.  These guys could produce big as long as rookie Caleb Williams gets the job done at quarterback in year one. Moore has more to compete with for targets this year, but you still have to like his chances for a big season in year two with the Bears.

The Giants and Cardinals both have some question marks at receiver, but a couple rookies lead the way for both teams. Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison could have big rookie seasons with their new teams. These guys both have a chance to lead all rookie fantasy receivers in scoring.

On the opposite side of things, the Broncos have the most challenging schedule for receivers. The Broncos have all sorts of questions at receiver outside of Courtland Sutton. This is a unit of receivers you just might want to avoid come draft day. This schedule won’t make anything easier for this group.

The Chargers are a similar team to the Broncos, having openings and questions at receiver. So once again, it might be best to let someone else put Chargers receivers on their roster. Plus, the Chargers could be a lot more run heavy with a new coach running the show. The tough schedule and new offense make taking any Chargers receiver a bit of a risk.

There are two really good offenses on the list that have tough schedules for receivers. Both the Dolphins and Chiefs have a top-five least favorable schedule for receivers. The Dolphins have one of the best receiver duos in football, so it is tough to fade them because of this schedule. Both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should be able to produce big numbers once again in this offense.

The Chiefs are a little more concerning. This offense is a little matchup proof, but don’t have that elite receiver on their roster. Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown lead the way. Brown hasn’t been great in recent seasons and Rice is facing a suspension. These guys will carry some risk come draft day, especially after seeing this schedule.

Davante Adams is usually another star receiver that is matchup proof, but you have to wonder a little this year. He has some question marks at quarterback, which could hurt his production when you pair it with this schedule. Adams is dealing with the fifth toughest fantasy schedule for receivers.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy receivers. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the receivers with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  WR PLAYOFF SOS  
1. Los Angeles Rams 501.93
2. Jacksonville Jaguars 515.53
3. Kansas City Chiefs 519.43
4. New York Giants 521.63
5. Miami Dolphins 532.77
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 534.53
7. Houston Texans 538
8. Buffalo Bills 540.87
9. Las Vegas Raiders 541.9
10. Carolina Panthers 549.33
11. Cincinnati Bengals 552.17
12. Detroit Lions 553.73
13. Arizona Cardinals 555.27
14. Cleveland Browns 555.4
15. Minnesota Vikings 560.93
16. New England Patriots 573.03
17. Los Angeles Chargers 573.1
18. Tennessee Titans 575.17
19. Baltimore Ravens 581.27
20. Seattle Seahawks 585.08
21. New York Jets 585.5
22. Denver Broncos 587.2
23. Pittsburgh Steelers 587.8
24. Philadelphia Eagles 589.73
25. Green Bay Packers 590.85
26. Washington Commanders 591.57
27. New Orleans Saints 604.13
28. Dallas Cowboys 609.73
29. Indianapolis Colts 614
30. San Francisco 49ers 641.53
31. Atlanta Falcons 644.93
32. Chicago Bears 647.98

 

The Bears and Cowboys are the teams that make both the top five easiest receiver schedules for both the regular season and playoffs. Chicago has the easiest for the entire playoffs. Once again, their top trio of receivers are looking pretty good come draft day.

Lamb continues to make his case to be the first receiver selected come draft day. He could have a monster season and finish strong as well with the fifth easiest schedule for the playoffs. Lamb might be the most surefire first-round pick come draft day.

The Falcons, 49ers and Colts also have a top-five favorable playoff schedule for receivers. Atlanta receivers were looking up to begin with, getting a legit quarterback throwing them passes this year. And this schedule makes their options look even better, especially Drake London. He could have a breakout season.

San Francisco has great options at receiver in Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. They are pretty safe picks come draft day. And they get a very favorable playoff schedule that could make them even more appealing to fantasy owners. These guys both have really solid floors come draft day in this offense.

Michael Pittman keeps getting it done as the No. 1 option for the Colts. If Anthony Richardson can become that true No. 1 at quarterback for Indy, Pittman would look even better. Pittman has produced in recent year despite having some quarterback issues. His game could go to a higher level this year if Richardson breaks out. Pittman could be a league winner if everything breaks his way in 2024.

The Chiefs and Dolphins are two of the best offenses in football but also the only two teams to make the top five most unfavorable receiver schedules for both the regular season and playoffs. This is a tad concerning for both teams, Again, it is tough to bet against Hill, but maybe you drop him down your rankings just few spots behind the other elite guys because of this. You hate to use an early round pick on a receiver to see him maybe not produce what he should come playoff time.

And as mentioned with the Chiefs, their top two receivers already face a few question marks, so maybe their tough schedules make them players to let someone else draft. Both Brown and Rice could be a little erratic.

The Rams actually have the toughest playoff schedule for receivers. They are another team with two of the best receivers in football. It is tough to bet against either Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp, but the playoff schedule is a little scary, especially for Kupp. He seems to be trending down at this stage of his career.

The Jaguars and Giants are the two other teams with a top-five unfavorable fantasy schedule for the playoffs. The Jags have Christian Kirk and Gabriel Davis as their top two receivers. Kirk is normally pretty steady but Davis can be boom or bust. Seeing his playoff schedule should bump him down a few spots in your rankings. It could be more of the same for Davis with his new team.

And the Giants are an outlier here, having an easy schedule for receivers during the regular season but the fourth toughest for the playoffs. This makes it tough come draft day. Their receivers could be good values for the regular season but disappoint when it counts. You do have to just make the playoffs, though, so we aren’t sure we shy away from Giant receivers just because of their tough playoff schedule. You still might be able to get good value with their options that help you win during the season.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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The Paur Report

Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 18

Player Notes
Doug Pederson Jan 5 12:30pm ET
Doug Pederson

FOX Sports' Jordan Schultz reports that there is a league-wide understanding that a complete overhaul, including parting ways with general manager Trent Baalke, is necessary for the Jacksonville Jaguars to attract top coaching candidates, according to sources. There was a belief a few weeks ago that the Jaguars might retain Baalke, but apparently the organization's decision-makers decided this week that a full overhaul is in the best interest of the team moving forward. The expectation is that both Baalke and head coach Doug Pederson will get the axe on Black Monday. Jacksonville has plenty of young pieces in place on both sides of the ball to attract coaching candidates. Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will be at the top of the list for head-coach candidates around the league, but it's unclear if the Jags can pry him away from Detroit or the Chicago Bears.

From RotoBaller

Drake Maye Jan 5 12:20pm ET
Drake Maye

As expected, New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (hand) is officially active and will start on Sunday against the division-rival Buffalo Bills in the Week 18 regular-season opener. Maye has been dealing with a right-hand injury, and although he was questionable to play, there was never much doubt that he'd be active to close out his rookie season. It's been an up and down first year in the NFL for Maye, as he enters Week 18 action with a 66.8 completion percentage, 2,276 yards, 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 12 games (11 starts). The North Carolina product has shown flashes of upside, though, and given the lack of talent around him, it's hard to be too critical of the rookie in his first year. Despite some starters resting around the league, Maye will merely be a QB2 with upside in Week 18 against a Bills defense that will be pulling starters early.

From RotoBaller

Kyle Dugger Jan 5 12:20pm ET
Kyle Dugger

New England Patriots safety Kyle Dugger (ankle, quadriceps) is officially active for the Week 18 regular-season finale on Sunday against the division-rival Buffalo Bills. However, the team already ruled out cornerback Christian Gonzalez (concussion) after he suffered a concussion in last week's loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Dugger has battled multiple lower-body injuries throughout the year but has mostly played through his ailments. Although the Patriots defense probably has more upside this weekend than they have all year with key starters on the Bills offense to play very little on Sunday, fantasy managers should continue to avoid their defense/special teams unit. In his fifth season with New England, Dugger enters the regular-season finale with 79 tackles (53 solo), one sack, eight tackles for loss, four pass breakups and a forced fumble in 12 starts.

From RotoBaller

Daniel Jones Jan 5 12:20pm ET
Daniel Jones

New York Giants owner John Mara continues to evaluate head coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen separately, according to Jordan Schultz of FOX Sports. As of Sunday in Week 18, Mara remains undecided on the futures of Daboll and Schoen with the organization. Schultz notes that "exploratory calls and feelers about potential scenarios if one were retained and the other let go have happened in recent days." Daboll has gone just 18-31-1 through three seasons with the Giants. He led them to a winning season and playoff berth in his first season at the helm, but he owns a miserable .273 winning percentage since then. Schoen has been with the Giants for three years, as well. He has some impressive moves on his resume, including this year's selection of Malik Nabers and the reinforcement of New York's offensive line, but has also received much-deserved criticism for the Daniel Jones extension and Saquon Barkley departure, among other moves. With many coaching staff shakeups expected across the NFL over the next few days, time is running out for Mara to make key personnel decisions. We would expect more clarity on the futures of Daboll and Schoen by Monday afternoon.

From RotoBaller

Sterling Shepard Jan 5 12:13pm ET
Sterling Shepard

Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Sterling Shepard (hamstring) is officially active for the Week 18 game.

Fantasy Spin: Shepard had a decent role in the passing game a few weeks ago but has been targeted only four times over the last two games. He probably will see a few targets this week, but fantasy players should have better options available and can avoid Shepard.

From TheHuddle

Curtis Samuel Jan 5 12:10pm ET
Curtis Samuel

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Curtis Samuel (rib) is officially active on Sunday for the Week 18 regular-season finale against the division-rival New England Patriots. Samuel will make his return after missing the last two weeks due to a rib injury. The 28-year-old hasn't had much of a role on offense for Buffalo in 2024, although he could get more run this weekend with Buffalo expected to sit their starters on both sides of the ball after a series or two. Amari Cooper (personal) was already ruled out. The Bills are locked into the No. 2 seed in the AFC for the postseason, so there is no benefit to them playing all their key players in this one. However, if Samuel sees a season-high in snaps on Sunday in New England, he'd mostly be working with backup quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. Samuel could be busier than usual, but it's hard to put any fantasy faith in a player with only 201 receiving yards and one TD in 13 games.

From RotoBaller

Christian Watson Jan 5 12:10pm ET
Christian Watson

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson (knee) is officially active for Sunday's Week 18 contest against the Chicago Bears. He had been listed as questionable. The 25-year-old returns from a one-game absence to play in the Packers' regular-season finale. Watson's highest yardage total of the season came against the Bears back in Week 11 when he caught all four of his passes for a whopping 150 yards through the air. While he'll hope to replicate that performance this Sunday, that's far from guaranteed. He's averaging just 1.8 catches, 27.4 yards, and zero touchdowns over his last five contests, and he's not a dependable option for fantasy lineups in leagues with 12 or fewer teams.

From RotoBaller

Romeo Doubs Jan 5 12:10pm ET
Romeo Doubs

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs (illness) is inactive for Sunday's Week 18 contest against the Chicago Bears. He had been listed as questionable after his late addition to the injury report on Saturday. The 24-year-old finishes the regular season as the overall WR52 in PPR leagues, catching 46 passes for 601 yards and four touchdowns over the course of 16 games. He has been one of several impactful pass-catchers in the Packers' offense, commanding targets amidst a committee of low-end fantasy receivers. His absence in Week 18 leaves Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks as the Packers' top healthy wide receivers.

From RotoBaller

Hunter Henry Jan 5 12:10pm ET
Hunter Henry

New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry (foot) has been ruled out for the Week 18 regular-season finale against the division-rival Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Henry was limited in practice all week but will end his 2024 season a week early. With the 30-year-old officially out against a Bills defense that will be taking it easy with the No. 2 seed already locked up for the playoffs, Austin Hooper could be a sneaky DFS play this weekend with a starting workload on tap. Henry will be back with New England next year after wrapping up his fourth season with the Pats. The former second-rounder by the Los Angeles Chargers in 2016 out of Arkansas finishes with a career-high 674 receiving yards on a career-high 66 receptions (97 targets), although he only found the end zone two times in 16 games, limiting his value as a low-end TE1 option on a weekly basis in fantasy.

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Travis Homer Jan 5 12:10pm ET
Travis Homer

Chicago Bears running back Travis Homer (hamstring) and left guard Teven Jenkins (calf) are inactive for Sunday's Week 18 contest against the Green Bay Packers. Both players had been listed as questionable. Homer has operated as the Bears' No. 3 running back for most of this season, amassing just nine touches for 34 yards through 10 games. He was far more involved on special teams than on offense in 2024, leaving most of the backfield work to D'Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson. Meanwhile, Jenkins is headed for his third absence of the year, including his second in a row. He'll be replaced by Jake Curhan at left guard for Sunday's season finale.

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Xavier Legette Jan 5 12:10pm ET
Xavier Legette

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Xavier Legette (hip, wrist) is officially active for Sunday's Week 18 contest against the Atlanta Falcons. The rookie had been listed as questionable after finishing last week with back-to-back limited practices. Legette has appeared in 15 contests this season, catching 46 passes for 467 yards and four touchdowns. He typically operates as the No. 2 receiver behind Adam Thielen, and last week, he led the team with nine targets. He should remain heavily involved on Sunday afternoon, but the Panthers' subpar offensive production leaves the rookie pass-catcher as a low-end WR3/FLEX option, at best.

From RotoBaller

Hunter Henry Jan 5 12:03pm ET
Hunter Henry

New England Patriots TE Hunter Henry (foot) has been declared inactive for the Week 18 game.

Fantasy Spin: Austin Hooper should see a handful of targets with Henry unavailable but probably can be avoided in most fantasy leagues.

From TheHuddle

Alvin Kamara Jan 5 12:00pm ET
Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (groin) is officially inactive for Sunday's Week 18 contest against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This news does not come as much of a surprise given that Kamara had been listed as doubtful and did not practice this past week. The 29-year-old finishes the 2024 season with 950 rushing yards, 543 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns through 14 games. He was well on his way to his first-ever 1,000-yard rushing season before suffering a season-ending groin injury in Week 15. He'll come up 50 yards shy of that mark but still finishes 2024 as the overall RB8 in PPR leagues. With Kendre Miller (concussion) also sidelined, the Saints will rely on a combination of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jamaal Williams, and Jordan Mims out of the backfield in Week 18.

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Austin Ekeler Jan 5 12:00pm ET
Austin Ekeler

Washington Commanders running back Austin Ekeler (concussion) is officially active for Sunday's Week 18 contest against the Dallas Cowboys. He had been listed as questionable but was widely expected to play after the Commanders activated him from injured reserve on Saturday. The 29-year-old spent the minimum of four games on injured reserve after suffering a scary head injury on special teams. He returns to his role as the No. 2 running back in Washington behind Brian Robinson Jr., but he'll still be able to carve out a significant workload. Through 11 games when healthy, Ekeler tallied 355 rushing yards, 346 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. Notably, he has scored a receiving touchdown in every season except 2024, so he'll have one last chance to extend that streak on Sunday. Ekeler will rank as a mid-range RB3 thanks to his pass-catching upside and Robinson's recent struggles.

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Cade Otton Jan 5 12:00pm ET
Cade Otton

Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton (knee) is officially inactive for Sunday's Week 18 contest against the New Orleans Saints. He had been listed as doubtful despite logging a limited practice on Friday. Otton finishes the 2024 regular season as the overall TE14 in PPR leagues, amassing 59 catches for 600 yards and four touchdowns through 14 games. He was one of the best tight ends in fantasy football when Mike Evans and Chris Godwin (ankle) were both sidelined, but his productivity dwindled as soon as Evans returned to the mix. Payne Durham will step up as the Buccaneers' top tight end in Week 18, ranking as a mid-range TE2 for fantasy purposes. Devin Culp, a rookie tight end out of Washington who saw his first career target last week and ended up catching three passes for 52 yards, should also remain involved.

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Chigoziem Okonkwo Jan 5 12:00pm ET
Chigoziem Okonkwo

Tennessee Titans tight end Chig Okonkwo (abdomen) is officially active for the Week 18 regular-season finale against the division-rival Houston Texans on Sunday. Okonkwo popped up on this week's injury report after putting in a limited practice on Thursday before sitting out on Friday. The 25-year-old will end up giving it a go in the team's final game of the season. He's been on a decent run of production of late with 22 catches on 28 targets for 182 yards and no touchdowns in the last three games, although that also coincided with Mason Rudolph taking over under center for the Titans. Tennessee is going back to quarterback Will Levis (at least to start) in Week 18, which should give fantasy managers some pause when considering Okonkwo as a TE streamer. He has 52 total catches on the year for 479 yards and only two touchdowns in 16 games.

From RotoBaller

Sterling Shepard Jan 5 12:00pm ET
Sterling Shepard

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Sterling Shepard (hamstring) is officially active for Sunday's Week 18 game against the New Orleans Saints. He had been listed as questionable. The veteran receiver has been productive through 13 games in a depth role this season, catching 31 passes for 323 yards and one touchdown. He has served as a reliable target for Baker Mayfield, especially after Chris Godwin (ankle) suffered a season-ending injury. With that said, Shepard is off the fantasy radar as long as he remains behind Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan on the depth chart.

From RotoBaller

Juwan Johnson Jan 5 12:00pm ET
Juwan Johnson

New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson (knee) is officially active for Sunday's Week 18 contest against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He had been listed as questionable after logging three consecutive limited practices. Johnson has operated alongside Foster Moreau all season long, catching a career-high 44 passes for 468 yards and three touchdowns through 16 games. He ranks as the overall TE22 in PPR leagues this season, making him a mid-to-low TE2 option for the final week of the 2024 regular season.

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K.J. Osborn Jan 5 12:00pm ET
K.J. Osborn

Washington Commanders wide receiver K.J. Osborn (illness) is officially inactive for Sunday's Week 18 contest against the Dallas Cowboys. Osborn had been listed as questionable with an illness, but it's also possible that his absence is non-injury-related and merely a coach's decision, as has been the case most weeks since Washington claimed him off waivers from New England. Terry McLaurin remains the Commanders' primary receiver with Olamide Zacchaeus thriving in a complementary role. Dyami Brown, Luke McCaffrey, and Jamison Crowder are depth pass-catching options for Sunday's regular-season finale.

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Alvin Kamara Jan 5 11:53am ET
Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara (groin) is not active for Week 18's game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Fantasy Spin: Kamara had been listed as doubtful on the injury report after missing all three of the Saints' practice sessions during the week. RBs Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jamaal Williams are expected to split the carries in the New Orleans backfield this afternoon and both players can be viewed as flex options in deeper fantasy leagues.

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