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FFL: Offseason | NFL: Week 18

WR Strength of Schedule

Fri May 31 10:52am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Lamb could top last season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the receiver position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to receivers last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the receivers with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the receivers that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  WR SOS  
1. Denver Broncos 531.34
2. Los Angeles Chargers 536.08
3. Miami Dolphins 537.31
4. Kansas City Chiefs 549.96
5. Las Vegas Raiders 552.89
6. Pittsburgh Steelers 554.85
7. New England Patriots 555.93
8. Buffalo Bills 556.13
9. Houston Texans 561.75
10. San Francisco 49ers 565.73
11. New Orleans Saints 566.06
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 566.19
13. Cincinnati Bengals 566.32
14. Jacksonville Jaguars 570.07
15. Baltimore Ravens 571.77
16. Seattle Seahawks 573.41
17. Minnesota Vikings 573.91
18. Philadelphia Eagles 574.46
19. Carolina Panthers 575.49
20. Los Angeles Rams 575.79
21. Washington Commanders 575.91
22. Detroit Lions 576.36
23. Atlanta Falcons 577.76
24. New York Jets 577.99
25. Tennessee Titans 578.06
26. Indianapolis Colts 578.18
27. Cleveland Browns 583.5
28. Arizona Cardinals 586.09
29. New York Giants 586.93
30. Chicago Bears 601.21
31. Dallas Cowboys 608.4
32. Green Bay Packers 610.22

 

The Packers have the easiest fantasy schedule for receivers. Jayden Reed and Christian Watson could be setup for career best seasons with this schedule. These are guys you can get a little later come draft day and mid-round options that could be difference makers for fantasy owners.

CeeDee Lamb is considered the No. 1 overall fantasy receiver for many and his schedule helps make that claim even stronger. Lamb has the second most favorable schedule for receivers. Lamb was huge last year and could improve on that even more, especially since the Cowboys could struggle to run the ball with their current options.

The Bears, Giants and Cardinals also round out the top-five most favorable receiver schedules. Chicago has a great trio of receivers with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze.  These guys could produce big as long as rookie Caleb Williams gets the job done at quarterback in year one. Moore has more to compete with for targets this year, but you still have to like his chances for a big season in year two with the Bears.

The Giants and Cardinals both have some question marks at receiver, but a couple rookies lead the way for both teams. Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison could have big rookie seasons with their new teams. These guys both have a chance to lead all rookie fantasy receivers in scoring.

On the opposite side of things, the Broncos have the most challenging schedule for receivers. The Broncos have all sorts of questions at receiver outside of Courtland Sutton. This is a unit of receivers you just might want to avoid come draft day. This schedule won’t make anything easier for this group.

The Chargers are a similar team to the Broncos, having openings and questions at receiver. So once again, it might be best to let someone else put Chargers receivers on their roster. Plus, the Chargers could be a lot more run heavy with a new coach running the show. The tough schedule and new offense make taking any Chargers receiver a bit of a risk.

There are two really good offenses on the list that have tough schedules for receivers. Both the Dolphins and Chiefs have a top-five least favorable schedule for receivers. The Dolphins have one of the best receiver duos in football, so it is tough to fade them because of this schedule. Both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should be able to produce big numbers once again in this offense.

The Chiefs are a little more concerning. This offense is a little matchup proof, but don’t have that elite receiver on their roster. Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown lead the way. Brown hasn’t been great in recent seasons and Rice is facing a suspension. These guys will carry some risk come draft day, especially after seeing this schedule.

Davante Adams is usually another star receiver that is matchup proof, but you have to wonder a little this year. He has some question marks at quarterback, which could hurt his production when you pair it with this schedule. Adams is dealing with the fifth toughest fantasy schedule for receivers.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy receivers. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the receivers with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  WR PLAYOFF SOS  
1. Los Angeles Rams 501.93
2. Jacksonville Jaguars 515.53
3. Kansas City Chiefs 519.43
4. New York Giants 521.63
5. Miami Dolphins 532.77
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 534.53
7. Houston Texans 538
8. Buffalo Bills 540.87
9. Las Vegas Raiders 541.9
10. Carolina Panthers 549.33
11. Cincinnati Bengals 552.17
12. Detroit Lions 553.73
13. Arizona Cardinals 555.27
14. Cleveland Browns 555.4
15. Minnesota Vikings 560.93
16. New England Patriots 573.03
17. Los Angeles Chargers 573.1
18. Tennessee Titans 575.17
19. Baltimore Ravens 581.27
20. Seattle Seahawks 585.08
21. New York Jets 585.5
22. Denver Broncos 587.2
23. Pittsburgh Steelers 587.8
24. Philadelphia Eagles 589.73
25. Green Bay Packers 590.85
26. Washington Commanders 591.57
27. New Orleans Saints 604.13
28. Dallas Cowboys 609.73
29. Indianapolis Colts 614
30. San Francisco 49ers 641.53
31. Atlanta Falcons 644.93
32. Chicago Bears 647.98

 

The Bears and Cowboys are the teams that make both the top five easiest receiver schedules for both the regular season and playoffs. Chicago has the easiest for the entire playoffs. Once again, their top trio of receivers are looking pretty good come draft day.

Lamb continues to make his case to be the first receiver selected come draft day. He could have a monster season and finish strong as well with the fifth easiest schedule for the playoffs. Lamb might be the most surefire first-round pick come draft day.

The Falcons, 49ers and Colts also have a top-five favorable playoff schedule for receivers. Atlanta receivers were looking up to begin with, getting a legit quarterback throwing them passes this year. And this schedule makes their options look even better, especially Drake London. He could have a breakout season.

San Francisco has great options at receiver in Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. They are pretty safe picks come draft day. And they get a very favorable playoff schedule that could make them even more appealing to fantasy owners. These guys both have really solid floors come draft day in this offense.

Michael Pittman keeps getting it done as the No. 1 option for the Colts. If Anthony Richardson can become that true No. 1 at quarterback for Indy, Pittman would look even better. Pittman has produced in recent year despite having some quarterback issues. His game could go to a higher level this year if Richardson breaks out. Pittman could be a league winner if everything breaks his way in 2024.

The Chiefs and Dolphins are two of the best offenses in football but also the only two teams to make the top five most unfavorable receiver schedules for both the regular season and playoffs. This is a tad concerning for both teams, Again, it is tough to bet against Hill, but maybe you drop him down your rankings just few spots behind the other elite guys because of this. You hate to use an early round pick on a receiver to see him maybe not produce what he should come playoff time.

And as mentioned with the Chiefs, their top two receivers already face a few question marks, so maybe their tough schedules make them players to let someone else draft. Both Brown and Rice could be a little erratic.

The Rams actually have the toughest playoff schedule for receivers. They are another team with two of the best receivers in football. It is tough to bet against either Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp, but the playoff schedule is a little scary, especially for Kupp. He seems to be trending down at this stage of his career.

The Jaguars and Giants are the two other teams with a top-five unfavorable fantasy schedule for the playoffs. The Jags have Christian Kirk and Gabriel Davis as their top two receivers. Kirk is normally pretty steady but Davis can be boom or bust. Seeing his playoff schedule should bump him down a few spots in your rankings. It could be more of the same for Davis with his new team.

And the Giants are an outlier here, having an easy schedule for receivers during the regular season but the fourth toughest for the playoffs. This makes it tough come draft day. Their receivers could be good values for the regular season but disappoint when it counts. You do have to just make the playoffs, though, so we aren’t sure we shy away from Giant receivers just because of their tough playoff schedule. You still might be able to get good value with their options that help you win during the season.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Bender's DFS Pickem Plays: Week 18

Player Notes
Tua Tagovailoa Jan 3 10:40pm ET
Tua Tagovailoa

The New York Jets defense will wrap up a disappointing season at home against the Miami Dolphins in Week 18. They will catch a break as the Dolphins are expected to give Tyler Huntley his second-straight start while Tua Tagovailoa (hip) is dealing with an injury. That being said, the Jets have not been a good fantasy defense this season and should not be counted upon for fantasy gamers still vying for titles in Week 18.

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Michael Penix Jr. Jan 3 10:40pm ET
Michael Penix Jr.

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. just needs to take care of the football -- and get some help from the Saints -- in order to send his team to the playoffs. The 24-year-old is 37-for-62 (59.7%) in his two games as starter, with two touchdowns and one interception (that was not his fault). But with a strong ground game that rushed for 200 yards and three scores the last time Atlanta faced Carolina in October, Penix Jr. should be handing the ball off much more than he should be passing it. Not that the Panthers can stop the passing attack, allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing QBs including five TDs last week to Baker Mayfield and even three TDs to Cooper Rush in Week 15. With the friendly matchup and some likely volatility at the QB position in the final week of the regular season with some starters sitting or seeing only limited playing time, the former first-round draft pick sets up as a high-end QB2 on Sunday.

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Tyler Conklin Jan 3 10:30pm ET
Tyler Conklin

New York Jets tight end Tyler Conklin (calf) is listed as questionable heading into his team's season finale against the Miami Dolphins in Week 18. Assuming Conklin is able to play through his calf injury he draws a plus matchup against a Dolphins defense that is allowing the 12th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season. Conklin turned in his best fantasy performance of the season in a Week 17 loss to the Buffalo Bills and will be worth a look as a TE2 in fantasy this Sunday if he ultimately suits up on Sunday.

From RotoBaller

Greg Joseph Jan 3 10:30pm ET
Greg Joseph

New York Jets kicker Greg Joseph will make his debut for the team in a Week 18 home matchup against the Miami Dolphins. Joseph was added to the team's roster from the practice squad earlier in the week and will serve as the Jets' fifth kicker this season. The Dolphins have been generous to kickers this season, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position but Joseph should not be considered a starting option for fantasy gamers still vying for a title in Week 18.

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Isaac Guerendo Jan 3 10:30pm ET
Isaac Guerendo

San Francisco 49ers rookie running back Isaac Guerendo (foot, hamstring) is off the injury report and ready to roll for a Week 18 matchup with the Cardinals in Arizona. Last week at home versus Detroit, Guerendo took just nine carries for 34 yards but snagged all four targets in the passing game for 65 yards. Arizona's defense represents a favorable opportunity for Guerendo to finish his first NFL campaign on a high note -- they have allowed the 10th-most half-PPR points per game (21.9). Last week, they allowed 14.7 points to Kyren Williams of the Los Angeles Rams. With the 49ers having been eliminated from playoff contention weeks ago and playing their final game of 2024, head coach Kyle Shanahan should give Guerendo his classic heavy lead-back usage while assessing Guerendo's role in 2025. This could be especially true with the 49ers injury issues -- backup Joshua Dobbs is starting for an injured Brock Purdy (right elbow), wideout Deebo Samuel Sr. (rib, wrist) is out, and tight end George Kittle (ankle, hamstring) is questionable. Guerendo is a back-end RB1 in Week 18.

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Davante Adams Jan 3 10:20pm ET
Davante Adams

New York Jets wide receiver Davante Adams was quiet in a Week 17 loss to the Buffalo Bills, catching just five passes for 47 yards. He needs just 25 receiving yards for his fifth straight 1,000-yard season. The team standing in the way of that milestone for Adams in Week 18 is a Miami Dolphins defense that is allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. Just like when they were together in Green Bay, Adams has been Aaron Rodgers' favorite target since joining the Jets at the trade deadline. He is a low-end WR1 for fantasy this weekend while also being in play as a tournament option in DFS contests.

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Brock Bowers Jan 3 10:20pm ET
Brock Bowers

Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers will be a top option at his position despite a stiff test in the Los Angeles Chargers. In Week 17's win over the New Orleans Saints, the rookie sensation broke Mike Ditka's rookie receiving yardage record and Puka Nacua's rookie reception record (in one fewer game). With one game remaining, the 22-year-old could make even more history as he closes in on Zach Ertz's single-season TE reception record set in 2018. The veteran notched 116 that season, meaning Bowers needs eight more catches to tie him. The Chargers aren't the most favorable of matchups, but with the Georgia product playing the role of the clear No. 1 option on his team, he still stands a chance to challenge an impressive mark. He'll come in as RotoBaller's PPR TE1 in this week's ranks.

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Allen Lazard Jan 3 10:20pm ET
Allen Lazard

New York Jets wide receiver Allen Lazard will finish up his 2024 season with a home matchup against the Miami Dolphins in Week 18. The Dolphins have been tough on wide receivers this season, allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Lazard has not been a significant part of the Jets passing offense since the team acquired Davante Adams at the trade deadline and is not a recommended fantasy option heading into the season finale on Sunday.

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Bo Nix Jan 3 10:20pm ET
Bo Nix

Denver Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix has several factors working in his favor to produce as a strong QB1 in fantasy football in the Week 18 regular-season finale at home against the visiting Kansas City Chiefs. First off, Denver can lock up their first playoff berth since the 2015 Super Bowl-champion team with a win over a division rival in front of the home crowd. That's reason enough in a Week 18 with many teams across the league resting starters. But the 24-year-old from Oregon has also continued to get better throughout his first year in the NFL, throwing for three touchdowns just last week in a near-miraculous comeback win against the Bengals. Nix is the QB11 in overall fantasy points on the year through 17 weeks and will be taking on a Chiefs defense that will be resting some of their best players, including pass-rusher Chris Jones. Nix has a clear path to high-end QB1 numbers in fantasy this week.

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Isaiah Davis Jan 3 10:10pm ET
Isaiah Davis

New York Jets running back Isaiah Davis rushed for 35 yards on three carries and added an eight-yard reception in a Week 17 loss to the Buffalo Bills. The rookie running back will look to finish his debut season on a high note in a home matchup against the Miami Dolphins in Week 18. The Dolphins have been tough on opposing running games this season, allowing the 13th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position thus far. Davis has shown flashes in limited work this season but he is not a recommended fantasy play as the No. 3 back behind Breece Hall and Braelon Allen this weekend.

From RotoBaller

D'Andre Swift Jan 3 10:10pm ET
D'Andre Swift

Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift gets an exploitable spot in Week 18 against the Green Bay Packers in a road tilt. The former Georgia Bulldog has had quite the rollercoaster of a season. He's the current RB19 in PPR formats, though most of his production came during a four-game stretch in the middle of the season. From Weeks 4-8 (Week 7 bye), Swift scored 90.3 fantasy points (22.6 PPG) and was the RB4. However, in his other 12 contests, he'd averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game -- scoring a lone touchdown. Despite his woes, he'll get a Green Bay defense that's much more beatable on the ground than they are through the air. The Pack allow 23.7 fantasy points per game to RBs and are particularly susceptible in the passing game (86 receptions [third-most]). The 25-year-old is RotoBaller's PPR RB15 ahead of the season's final slate of action.

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Garrett Wilson Jan 3 10:10pm ET
Garrett Wilson

New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson caught seven passes for 66 yards and a touchdown, his second in the past three games, in a Week 17 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Wilson needs just three receptions against the Miami Dolphins in Week 18 to log the first 100-catch season of his young career. That being said, the Dolphins have been excellent against receivers this season, allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Wilson remains behind Davante Adams in the target pecking order in New York. However, the targets in the New York passing attack are consolidated enough that he is still safe to start as a high-end WR2 in fantasy leagues while also worth considering for DFS tournaments this weekend as he is unlikely to be highly rostered due to the tough matchup.

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Aaron Rodgers Jan 3 10:00pm ET
Aaron Rodgers

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers will wrap up his 2024 season with a home matchup against the Miami Dolphins in Week 18. Rodgers struggled mightily in his last game, throwing for just 112 yards and two interceptions in a loss to the Buffalo Bills. He will attempt to finish on a high note against a Miami defense that has been tough on opposing quarterbacks, allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to the position this season. Rodgers said earlier in the week that Sunday's game could be his last, which gives some added luster to an otherwise uninspiring matchup. That being said, Rodgers settles in as a low-end QB2 for fantasy purposes this weekend.

From RotoBaller

Joshua Dobbs Jan 3 10:00pm ET
Joshua Dobbs

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Joshua Dobbs is set to make his only start of 2024 in a Week 18 matchup against the Cardinals in Arizona. The 29-year-old will fill in for starter Brock Purdy (right elbow), as he did for a few plays at the end of last week's loss before scoring a rushing touchdown. Dobbs made his most recent start in Week 14 of 2023 with the Minnesota Vikings, as San Francisco opted for Brandon Allen when Purdy missed Week 12 of this season at Green Bay with poor results. Dobbs made some noise in fantasy last year, averaging 15.7 Yahoo default points per game with Arizona and Minnesota. He went over 20 points five times in 13 games -- driven mostly by rushing touchdowns -- but went out with a whimper with the Vikings, failing to reach five points in his final two starts. The Cardinals are the 12th-toughest defense to opposing fantasy quarterbacks, but they've allowed five rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks -- the fifth-most in the NFL. "The Pass-tronaut" is a QB2 in Week 18, but could be a sneaky-good DFS play for those who choose to spend big at other positions.

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Braelon Allen Jan 3 10:00pm ET
Braelon Allen

New York Jets running back Braelon Allen ran for 26 yards on six carries in a Week 17 loss to the Buffalo Bills. He will look to put the finishing touches on his rookie season in a home matchup against the Miami Dolphins in Week 18. The Dolphins have been solid against running backs this season, allowing the 13th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Allen is unlikely to see much work behind starter Breece Hall this weekend, leaving him as a low-end RB4 option who should not be considered to start in any fantasy formats.

From RotoBaller

Drew Lock Jan 3 9:50pm ET
Drew Lock

New York Giants quarterback Drew Lock will not be a recommended option in Week 18's divisional showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles. The sixth-year pro is coming off his best game, totaling a shocking five touchdowns (one rushing) and 309 passing yards in last weekend's 45-33 win over the Indianapolis Colts. It was the second time in his career that he'd tossed four scores in a single outing, and he was 30 yards shy of matching his previous career high. Despite the stellar performance, Lock can't be trusted for fantasy purposes in this Sunday's road tilt. Before Week 17's explosion, the 28-year-old bolstered a 1:4 TD:INT ratio in his previous appearances. Even with Philly slated to rest most of their starters, the veteran lands at QB26 in RotoBaller's Week 18 rankings.

From RotoBaller

Breece Hall Jan 3 9:50pm ET
Breece Hall

New York Jets running back Breece Hall will put the final touches on his 2024 season in a home matchup against the Miami Dolphins in Week 18. Hall was quiet in his last game, posting 53 all-purpose yards on 11 touches. He will look to bounce back against a Miami run defense that is allowing just the 20th-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season. Hall settles in as an RB2 in fantasy but is probably not a high-ceiling play in DFS contests this weekend due to his recent struggles and the tough matchup on tap.

From RotoBaller

Robert Saleh Jan 3 9:40pm ET
Robert Saleh

Interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich said on Friday that he expects to have an opportunity next week to interview for the New York Jets' full-time head-coaching job. The Jets will bring in plenty of head-coaching candidates next week after they finish off another lost season with a Week 18 tilt against the division-rival Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Ulbrich became the Jets' interim head coach following Robert Saleh's firing five games into the 2024 season. The team has gone 2-9 with Ulbrich at the helm, and although he will get an interview for the full-time position, nobody will be expecting him to actually win the job. Former Washington Commanders and Carolina Panthers head coach Ron Rivera interviewed with the Jets on Thursday, and former Tennessee Titans head coach was set to interview with the Jets on Friday.

From RotoBaller

Joe Flacco Jan 3 9:40pm ET
Joe Flacco

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Joe Flacco will draw the start on Sunday with Anthony Richardson (back) ruled out. The 39-year-old started last week for the injured Richardson, throwing for 330 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions on 26-of-38 passing. The performance resulted in two Colt receivers with 100-plus yards receiving in the same game for the first time all season. Sunday's matchup is almost as good as it gets, with Indy taking on Jacksonville, the second-most fantasy-friendly defense for opposing quarterbacks. The veteran QB lit them up earlier this season, throwing for 359 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions on 33-of-44 passing. The Colts are four-point favorites in this one but the two teams combined for 71 points the last time around, so it may not be so fruitful in this game that has a 43.5 over/under. Nevertheless, Flacco looks more like a high-end QB2 in Week 18 rather than a low-end one.

From RotoBaller

Aidan O'Connell Jan 3 9:30pm ET
Aidan O'Connell

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell won't be a viable fantasy option this Sunday when his team hosts the visiting Los Angeles Chargers. O'Connell has been decent when he's gotten the nod this year -- piecing together a 5:1 TD:INT ratio and 266.5 yards per game on a 64% completion percentage. However, he'll have his work cut out for him in Week 18. The 26-year-old will get his fifth start of the season against a Chargers squad, allowing the fewest points per game in the NFL (17.6). Additionally, LA has been a top-ten unit against fantasy quarterbacks in 2024 (17 PPG). Even on a week when some teams will be benching their starters, fantasy managers can find a better option than the Purdue product to slot into their lineups. O'Connell comes in as RotoBaller's QB22 in this week's rankings.

From RotoBaller