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FFL: Offseason | NFL: Week 18

WR Strength of Schedule

Fri May 31 10:52am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Lamb could top last season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the receiver position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to receivers last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the receivers with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the receivers that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  WR SOS  
1. Denver Broncos 531.34
2. Los Angeles Chargers 536.08
3. Miami Dolphins 537.31
4. Kansas City Chiefs 549.96
5. Las Vegas Raiders 552.89
6. Pittsburgh Steelers 554.85
7. New England Patriots 555.93
8. Buffalo Bills 556.13
9. Houston Texans 561.75
10. San Francisco 49ers 565.73
11. New Orleans Saints 566.06
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 566.19
13. Cincinnati Bengals 566.32
14. Jacksonville Jaguars 570.07
15. Baltimore Ravens 571.77
16. Seattle Seahawks 573.41
17. Minnesota Vikings 573.91
18. Philadelphia Eagles 574.46
19. Carolina Panthers 575.49
20. Los Angeles Rams 575.79
21. Washington Commanders 575.91
22. Detroit Lions 576.36
23. Atlanta Falcons 577.76
24. New York Jets 577.99
25. Tennessee Titans 578.06
26. Indianapolis Colts 578.18
27. Cleveland Browns 583.5
28. Arizona Cardinals 586.09
29. New York Giants 586.93
30. Chicago Bears 601.21
31. Dallas Cowboys 608.4
32. Green Bay Packers 610.22

 

The Packers have the easiest fantasy schedule for receivers. Jayden Reed and Christian Watson could be setup for career best seasons with this schedule. These are guys you can get a little later come draft day and mid-round options that could be difference makers for fantasy owners.

CeeDee Lamb is considered the No. 1 overall fantasy receiver for many and his schedule helps make that claim even stronger. Lamb has the second most favorable schedule for receivers. Lamb was huge last year and could improve on that even more, especially since the Cowboys could struggle to run the ball with their current options.

The Bears, Giants and Cardinals also round out the top-five most favorable receiver schedules. Chicago has a great trio of receivers with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze.  These guys could produce big as long as rookie Caleb Williams gets the job done at quarterback in year one. Moore has more to compete with for targets this year, but you still have to like his chances for a big season in year two with the Bears.

The Giants and Cardinals both have some question marks at receiver, but a couple rookies lead the way for both teams. Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison could have big rookie seasons with their new teams. These guys both have a chance to lead all rookie fantasy receivers in scoring.

On the opposite side of things, the Broncos have the most challenging schedule for receivers. The Broncos have all sorts of questions at receiver outside of Courtland Sutton. This is a unit of receivers you just might want to avoid come draft day. This schedule won’t make anything easier for this group.

The Chargers are a similar team to the Broncos, having openings and questions at receiver. So once again, it might be best to let someone else put Chargers receivers on their roster. Plus, the Chargers could be a lot more run heavy with a new coach running the show. The tough schedule and new offense make taking any Chargers receiver a bit of a risk.

There are two really good offenses on the list that have tough schedules for receivers. Both the Dolphins and Chiefs have a top-five least favorable schedule for receivers. The Dolphins have one of the best receiver duos in football, so it is tough to fade them because of this schedule. Both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should be able to produce big numbers once again in this offense.

The Chiefs are a little more concerning. This offense is a little matchup proof, but don’t have that elite receiver on their roster. Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown lead the way. Brown hasn’t been great in recent seasons and Rice is facing a suspension. These guys will carry some risk come draft day, especially after seeing this schedule.

Davante Adams is usually another star receiver that is matchup proof, but you have to wonder a little this year. He has some question marks at quarterback, which could hurt his production when you pair it with this schedule. Adams is dealing with the fifth toughest fantasy schedule for receivers.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy receivers. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the receivers with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  WR PLAYOFF SOS  
1. Los Angeles Rams 501.93
2. Jacksonville Jaguars 515.53
3. Kansas City Chiefs 519.43
4. New York Giants 521.63
5. Miami Dolphins 532.77
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 534.53
7. Houston Texans 538
8. Buffalo Bills 540.87
9. Las Vegas Raiders 541.9
10. Carolina Panthers 549.33
11. Cincinnati Bengals 552.17
12. Detroit Lions 553.73
13. Arizona Cardinals 555.27
14. Cleveland Browns 555.4
15. Minnesota Vikings 560.93
16. New England Patriots 573.03
17. Los Angeles Chargers 573.1
18. Tennessee Titans 575.17
19. Baltimore Ravens 581.27
20. Seattle Seahawks 585.08
21. New York Jets 585.5
22. Denver Broncos 587.2
23. Pittsburgh Steelers 587.8
24. Philadelphia Eagles 589.73
25. Green Bay Packers 590.85
26. Washington Commanders 591.57
27. New Orleans Saints 604.13
28. Dallas Cowboys 609.73
29. Indianapolis Colts 614
30. San Francisco 49ers 641.53
31. Atlanta Falcons 644.93
32. Chicago Bears 647.98

 

The Bears and Cowboys are the teams that make both the top five easiest receiver schedules for both the regular season and playoffs. Chicago has the easiest for the entire playoffs. Once again, their top trio of receivers are looking pretty good come draft day.

Lamb continues to make his case to be the first receiver selected come draft day. He could have a monster season and finish strong as well with the fifth easiest schedule for the playoffs. Lamb might be the most surefire first-round pick come draft day.

The Falcons, 49ers and Colts also have a top-five favorable playoff schedule for receivers. Atlanta receivers were looking up to begin with, getting a legit quarterback throwing them passes this year. And this schedule makes their options look even better, especially Drake London. He could have a breakout season.

San Francisco has great options at receiver in Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. They are pretty safe picks come draft day. And they get a very favorable playoff schedule that could make them even more appealing to fantasy owners. These guys both have really solid floors come draft day in this offense.

Michael Pittman keeps getting it done as the No. 1 option for the Colts. If Anthony Richardson can become that true No. 1 at quarterback for Indy, Pittman would look even better. Pittman has produced in recent year despite having some quarterback issues. His game could go to a higher level this year if Richardson breaks out. Pittman could be a league winner if everything breaks his way in 2024.

The Chiefs and Dolphins are two of the best offenses in football but also the only two teams to make the top five most unfavorable receiver schedules for both the regular season and playoffs. This is a tad concerning for both teams, Again, it is tough to bet against Hill, but maybe you drop him down your rankings just few spots behind the other elite guys because of this. You hate to use an early round pick on a receiver to see him maybe not produce what he should come playoff time.

And as mentioned with the Chiefs, their top two receivers already face a few question marks, so maybe their tough schedules make them players to let someone else draft. Both Brown and Rice could be a little erratic.

The Rams actually have the toughest playoff schedule for receivers. They are another team with two of the best receivers in football. It is tough to bet against either Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp, but the playoff schedule is a little scary, especially for Kupp. He seems to be trending down at this stage of his career.

The Jaguars and Giants are the two other teams with a top-five unfavorable fantasy schedule for the playoffs. The Jags have Christian Kirk and Gabriel Davis as their top two receivers. Kirk is normally pretty steady but Davis can be boom or bust. Seeing his playoff schedule should bump him down a few spots in your rankings. It could be more of the same for Davis with his new team.

And the Giants are an outlier here, having an easy schedule for receivers during the regular season but the fourth toughest for the playoffs. This makes it tough come draft day. Their receivers could be good values for the regular season but disappoint when it counts. You do have to just make the playoffs, though, so we aren’t sure we shy away from Giant receivers just because of their tough playoff schedule. You still might be able to get good value with their options that help you win during the season.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 18

Player Notes
Breece Hall Jan 5 9:40pm ET
Breece Hall

New York Jets running back Breece Hall carried the ball 12 times for 57 yards and caught three of his five targets for 15 yards and a touchdown while rushing for a two-point conversion in a 32-20 win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 18. Hall's late-season struggles on the ground continued as he failed to top 60 rushing yards in five straight games to close out the year. That being said, he salvaged his afternoon with a six-yard touchdown catch in the fourth quarter. Hall finishes his 2024 season with 876 rushing yards while catching 57 passes for 483 yards and scoring eight all-purpose touchdowns. He will be back as the Jets' lead running back heading into the 2025 season, although rookies Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis both flashed at various points throughout the season.

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Braelon Allen Jan 5 9:40pm ET
Braelon Allen

New York Jets running back Braelon Allen carried the ball four times for 15 yards and caught two of his three targets for eight yards in a 32-20 win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 18. Allen mixed in behind starter Breece Hall, per usual, in the high-scoring win. While he didn't hold much standalone value in fantasy this season, Allen flashed his talent at times and appears to be slated to remain a quality backup running back in the NFL moving forward. He is a solid player to roster in dynasty leagues moving forward as he is just one injury away from a big role in the New York offense.

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Isaiah Davis Jan 5 9:40pm ET
Isaiah Davis

New York Jets running back Isaiah Davis carried the ball four times for 41 yards in a 32-20 win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 18. Davis was impressive in a backup role behind Breece Hall, ripping off a 20-yard run and averaging 10.3 yards per carry. While fellow rookie Braelon Allen got most of the attention this season, Davis quietly carved out a role in the New York offense as the year went on. He remains blocked by Breece Hall and Allen on the Jets but he is a good player to stash in dynasty heading into the offseason.

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Rico Dowdle Jan 5 9:30pm ET
Rico Dowdle

Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle rushed 22 times for 72 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's Week 18 loss to the Washington Commanders. He also caught two of his three targets for an additional 12 yards through the air. Dowdle was quite impressive throughout the 2024 season, supplanting Ezekiel Elliott as the Cowboys' undisputed No. 1 running back. He finished the campaign with 1,079 rushing yards, 249 receiving yards, and five total touchdowns through 16 games, ranking as a low-end RB2 in fantasy football. There has been plenty of speculation that the Cowboys could take an aggressive approach with their pursuit of a running back this offseason, such as drafting Ashton Jeanty. However, there's also a real possibility they feel confident in Dowdle and don't take as big of a swing for a backfield addition within the upcoming months. The 26-year-old currently still has appeal as a mid-range RB3 option heading into the 2025 campaign, and until Dallas brings in competition, this backfield belongs to Dowdle.

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Aaron Rodgers Jan 5 9:30pm ET
Aaron Rodgers

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed 23 of his 36 passes for 274 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception in a 32-20 win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 18. Rodgers set a record by becoming just the fifth NFL quarterback to throw 500 touchdown passes in his career, joining Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Brett Favre in the exclusive club. The veteran quarterback finishes his second season with the Jets with 3,897 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions while appearing in all 17 of the team's games. It was a rocky season for Rodgers and a Jets team that had playoff aspirations in the preseason, only to fire head coach Robert Saleh in October and ultimately go 5-12 on the season. Rodgers is under contract for another season but the Jets could choose to part ways with the future Hall of Famer after the two sides appeared to have some issues throughout the season. After the game, Rodgers was not ready to state whether he would return for the 2025 season or retire. Stay tuned.

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Shane Steichen Jan 5 9:30pm ET
Shane Steichen

Per Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay, head coach Shane Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard will continue to operate in their roles next season. Irsay took to X (Twitter) on Sunday evening following Indianapolis' 26-23 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars to express his frustration over not making the playoffs. However, he gave his head coach and GM a vote of confidence heading into next season. "I've been evaluating our entire operation, and I believe in Chris Ballard and Shane Steichen and our collective ability to make the improvements needed to take us to the next level in 2025." Steichen has coached his way to a 17-17 record since taking over in 2023, while the Colts have seen just four winning seasons since Ballard got the GM job during the 2016 playoffs. There is plenty of talent on this squad -- particularly on the offensive side. Still, as of now, the team's success hinges on the development of quarterback Anthony Richardson. Fortunately for Ballard and Steichen, they'll get at least one more go.

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Payne Durham Jan 5 9:20pm ET
Payne Durham

Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Payne Durham saw increased playing time for the third straight week with Cade Otton (knee) inactive during the regular season finale. Durham hauled in both his targets for 16 yards and a touchdown during the victory. This marked the second straight game that Durham has been able to find the end zone. The hope is that Otton will be able to return to the field for next week's playoff game. Otherwise, Durham and Devin Culp will remain the primary options at tight end. Durham might be worth a dart throw in DFS contests for the Wild-Card round.

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Marvin Harrison Jr. Jan 5 9:13pm ET
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Dynasty | Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr caught six passes for 63 yards and a touchdown in the season finale. Dynasty Analysis: Harrison ends the season with 63 catches, just under 900 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. It was a solid season by most measures, but Harrison was overshadowed by the likes of Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr, and even Ladd McConkey this year. The future is bright for Harrison, but the thoughts of him being "the next big thing" at the position have certainly cooled over the course of the year as he's looked more like a WR2 than an absolute superstar. He could be a "buy low" candidate moving forward.

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Aaron Rodgers Jan 5 9:13pm ET
Aaron Rodgers

Dynasty | Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed 23-of-36 passes for 274 yards with four touchdowns and one interception in a win against the Dolphins. Dynasty Analysis: Rodgers waited until the last possible moment to have his best game as a Jet. He finishes the season with just under 4,000 passing yards with 28 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Speculation will only intensify now as Rodgers decides if he wants to retire or keep playing. He really wasn't great this season and was more of a problem than a solution for the Jets, but his history of greatness makes this a tough situation. Rodgers remains a hold in dynasty leagues as a bye-week fill-in or QB2, but it seems his days as a QB1 are all but over. Congratulations to Father Time, who remains undefeated.

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Jalen McMillan Jan 5 9:10pm ET
Jalen McMillan

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan posted another strong performance during Sunday's regular season finale against the New Orleans Saints. The rookie wideout hauled in five of his six targets for 74 yards and a touchdown in the win. It's also worth noting that McMillan rushed the ball once for six yards. That score was his seventh touchdown over his last five games. McMillan has come out of nowhere and become an elite red-zone threat for the Bucs down the stretch of the season. The rookie wideout will look to extend his five-game touchdown streak during next week's playoff game.

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Bucky Irving Jan 5 9:10pm ET
Bucky Irving

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving finished his rookie campaign on a high note during Sunday's game against the New Orleans Saints. Irving rushed the ball 19 times for 89 yards and scored a touchdown during the win. He also added two receptions on five targets for -5 yards during the division clinching victory. The 22-year-old has literally run his way with the lead back job in Tampa Bay. Fellow back Rachaad White didn't even log in a touch during Sunday's win. Irving should remain a focal point of this offense heading into the postseason.

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Tyreek Hill Jan 5 9:10pm ET
Tyreek Hill

While being interviewed by reporters after their 32-20 loss to the New York Jets, Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill insinuated that he'd prefer to play elsewhere moving forward. "I just gotta do what's best for me and my family. If that's here or wherever the case may be...I'm out. At the end of the day, I need to do what's best for my career." Whoah. 2024 marks the first season since his rookie year that Hill had played at least 15 games and not reached 1,000 receiving yards. Additionally, it was the first time since then that he'd failed to finish as a top-ten fantasy wideout under those same parameters. The 30-year-old was visibly frustrated after the game and noted he won't be in the playoffs for the first time in his career. It's a bad look for his future prospects with the team. Still, the off-season is young for him and the Dolphins, and there will be plenty of time to speculate on where he might play in 2025. As of now, he's on contract with the team through 2026.

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Josh Downs Jan 5 9:00pm ET
Josh Downs

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs caught 10 of his 13 targets for 94 yards during Sunday's Week 18 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Colts' passing attack has seen a significant boost ever since quarterback Joe Flacco took over for the injured Anthony Richardson (back), but Downs truly took his productivity to the next level during Sunday's season finale. He finishes the 2024 campaign with 72 catches, 803 yards, and five touchdowns. Each of these three marks represented season-highs, topping the totals he delivered as a rookie last year. Downs has firmly established himself as an appealing 1B option with the Colts, pairing nicely alongside their 1A receiver, Michael Pittman Jr. The UNC product will rank as a high-end WR3 when 2025 fantasy football drafts kick off next summer, and he has even greater appeal in dynasty leagues.

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Demario Douglas Jan 5 8:50pm ET
Demario Douglas

New England Patriots wide receiver DeMario Douglas caught three of his four targets for 34 yards during Sunday's Week 18 win over the Buffalo Bills. The second-year slot receiver finishes his 2024 campaign with 66 catches, 621 yards, and three touchdowns. Although he technically out-produced all other Patriots receivers this season, he lost significant ground to Kayshon Boutte as soon as Drake Maye took over as New England's starting quarterback. Heading into 2025, both Boutte and Douglas can expect to face competition as the Patriots bring in a new coaching staff and look to bolster their offense with a big-name wide receiver addition.

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Tyler Higbee Jan 5 8:50pm ET
Tyler Higbee

Los Angeles Rams tight end Tyler Higbee scored his second touchdown of the season and caught a season-high five passes for 46 yards in the team's 30-25 loss to the Seahawks. Higbee returned from a knee injury in Week 16 and scored a critical touchdown against the Jets. He had two catches in Week 17 against Arizona, but the veteran played his most involved role of the year in Week 18 despite the Rams resting most of their regular starters. Higbee had seven targets, which was just one short of Tutu Atwell's team-high. He tied with Atwell for the team lead with five catches and added his second score of the year. Higbee looked healthy and ready to contribute for the Rams as they start the playoffs with a home game next week.

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Alec Pierce Jan 5 8:40pm ET
Alec Pierce

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce did his usual thing on Sunday, catching a deep 40-yard touchdown pass on the team's opening drive and adding another 17-yard catch in the 26-23 win over the Jaguars. Despite only 37 receptions on the season, the 24-year-old finishes as the Colts' receiving leader with 824 yards and seven touchdowns. With blazing speed, he led the league in average depth of target (aDOT) which helped him rack up the yardage. The former second-round draft pick will likely fill a similar role in 2025 but, unless he can garner additional targets, it's hard to envision outpacing this season's production. Nevertheless, he should be worthy of at least a bench spot in next year's drafts, as he can be a viable (yet volatile) fill-in when the bye weeks hit.

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Zach Charbonnet Jan 5 8:30pm ET
Zach Charbonnet

Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet did not deliver for fantasy managers in Week 18. He ran for 59 yards and gained 32 yards on a lateral from wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Charbonnet was in a great position to succeed as the starter. However, Seattle rotated running back Kenny McIntosh into the lineup consistently. As such, Charbonnet did not have the same volume he has enjoyed in his other starts this season. Charbonnet's future in fantasy is interesting. The Seahawks seem very committed to starting running back Kenneth Walker III (ankle). However, Charbonnet has shown this season that he can carry the load when called upon and Walker has proven himself to be injury prone throughout his career. At the very least, Charbonnet has proven himself to be an excellent complimentary piece to Walker. Charbonnet should have a chance to be a consistent contributor next year. His eight rushing touchdowns were excellent this year. Time will tell what Seattle decides to do with their offense.

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba Jan 5 8:30pm ET
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught four passes for nine yards in Week 18 against the Los Angeles Rams. Smith-Njigba was invisible in a game in which quarterback Geno Smith threw four touchdown passes. What's worse, JSN had a chance to break wide receiver Tyler Lockett's single-season team receptions record. He fell one reception short of breaking the record. Overall, Smith-Njigba had a great season. He will finish with 1,130 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 100 receptions. Fantasy managers should be ecstatic about Smith-Njigba heading into next season. He is clearly Smith's No. 1 target, and he has displayed that he has the talent to be a high-end producer for fantasy. While his Week 18 was disappointing, the future is bright for JSN.

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Joshua Karty Jan 5 8:30pm ET
Joshua Karty

Los Angeles Rams kicker Joshua Karty made all four of his field goal attempts against the Seahawks in Week 18 and converted his only extra-point attempt as well. The sixth-round pick from Stanford finished the regular season 29-of-34 on field goal attempts and 32-of-36 on extra-point tries. He made all 13 of his field goal tries over the last four weeks, which should give him a big confidence boost going into the postseason. He also made field goals of 57 and 58 yards to finish the season six-of-seven on kicks from 50+ yards. After an inconsistent season, the rookie finished strong and will look to keep rolling next week as the Rams host a Wild Card game, which means he'll be kicking indoors again as a solid option against the Vikings or Lions.

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D.K. Metcalf Jan 5 8:30pm ET
D.K. Metcalf

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf caught three passes for 53 yards and a touchdown in Week 18 against the Los Angeles Rams. Metcalf was tied for second on the team in targets with five on Sunday. Metcalf's three receptions were still concerning considering he has not caught more than four passes since Week 11. Metcalf will finish the season eight yards shy of the fourth 1,000-yard season of his career. Metcalf began 2024 on fire, but he did not have the same production after returning from an MCL sprain halfway through the season. With Seattle headed into their offseason after missing the playoffs, they will look to retool their roster. Fantasy managers should keep an eye on Seattle's personnel moves and the evolution of offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Hopefully, Metcalf can bounce back for fantasy managers in 2025.

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