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FFL: Offseason | NFL: Week 18

WR Strength of Schedule

Fri May 31 10:52am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Lamb could top last season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the receiver position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to receivers last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the receivers with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the receivers that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  WR SOS  
1. Denver Broncos 531.34
2. Los Angeles Chargers 536.08
3. Miami Dolphins 537.31
4. Kansas City Chiefs 549.96
5. Las Vegas Raiders 552.89
6. Pittsburgh Steelers 554.85
7. New England Patriots 555.93
8. Buffalo Bills 556.13
9. Houston Texans 561.75
10. San Francisco 49ers 565.73
11. New Orleans Saints 566.06
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 566.19
13. Cincinnati Bengals 566.32
14. Jacksonville Jaguars 570.07
15. Baltimore Ravens 571.77
16. Seattle Seahawks 573.41
17. Minnesota Vikings 573.91
18. Philadelphia Eagles 574.46
19. Carolina Panthers 575.49
20. Los Angeles Rams 575.79
21. Washington Commanders 575.91
22. Detroit Lions 576.36
23. Atlanta Falcons 577.76
24. New York Jets 577.99
25. Tennessee Titans 578.06
26. Indianapolis Colts 578.18
27. Cleveland Browns 583.5
28. Arizona Cardinals 586.09
29. New York Giants 586.93
30. Chicago Bears 601.21
31. Dallas Cowboys 608.4
32. Green Bay Packers 610.22

 

The Packers have the easiest fantasy schedule for receivers. Jayden Reed and Christian Watson could be setup for career best seasons with this schedule. These are guys you can get a little later come draft day and mid-round options that could be difference makers for fantasy owners.

CeeDee Lamb is considered the No. 1 overall fantasy receiver for many and his schedule helps make that claim even stronger. Lamb has the second most favorable schedule for receivers. Lamb was huge last year and could improve on that even more, especially since the Cowboys could struggle to run the ball with their current options.

The Bears, Giants and Cardinals also round out the top-five most favorable receiver schedules. Chicago has a great trio of receivers with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze.  These guys could produce big as long as rookie Caleb Williams gets the job done at quarterback in year one. Moore has more to compete with for targets this year, but you still have to like his chances for a big season in year two with the Bears.

The Giants and Cardinals both have some question marks at receiver, but a couple rookies lead the way for both teams. Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison could have big rookie seasons with their new teams. These guys both have a chance to lead all rookie fantasy receivers in scoring.

On the opposite side of things, the Broncos have the most challenging schedule for receivers. The Broncos have all sorts of questions at receiver outside of Courtland Sutton. This is a unit of receivers you just might want to avoid come draft day. This schedule won’t make anything easier for this group.

The Chargers are a similar team to the Broncos, having openings and questions at receiver. So once again, it might be best to let someone else put Chargers receivers on their roster. Plus, the Chargers could be a lot more run heavy with a new coach running the show. The tough schedule and new offense make taking any Chargers receiver a bit of a risk.

There are two really good offenses on the list that have tough schedules for receivers. Both the Dolphins and Chiefs have a top-five least favorable schedule for receivers. The Dolphins have one of the best receiver duos in football, so it is tough to fade them because of this schedule. Both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should be able to produce big numbers once again in this offense.

The Chiefs are a little more concerning. This offense is a little matchup proof, but don’t have that elite receiver on their roster. Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown lead the way. Brown hasn’t been great in recent seasons and Rice is facing a suspension. These guys will carry some risk come draft day, especially after seeing this schedule.

Davante Adams is usually another star receiver that is matchup proof, but you have to wonder a little this year. He has some question marks at quarterback, which could hurt his production when you pair it with this schedule. Adams is dealing with the fifth toughest fantasy schedule for receivers.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy receivers. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the receivers with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  WR PLAYOFF SOS  
1. Los Angeles Rams 501.93
2. Jacksonville Jaguars 515.53
3. Kansas City Chiefs 519.43
4. New York Giants 521.63
5. Miami Dolphins 532.77
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 534.53
7. Houston Texans 538
8. Buffalo Bills 540.87
9. Las Vegas Raiders 541.9
10. Carolina Panthers 549.33
11. Cincinnati Bengals 552.17
12. Detroit Lions 553.73
13. Arizona Cardinals 555.27
14. Cleveland Browns 555.4
15. Minnesota Vikings 560.93
16. New England Patriots 573.03
17. Los Angeles Chargers 573.1
18. Tennessee Titans 575.17
19. Baltimore Ravens 581.27
20. Seattle Seahawks 585.08
21. New York Jets 585.5
22. Denver Broncos 587.2
23. Pittsburgh Steelers 587.8
24. Philadelphia Eagles 589.73
25. Green Bay Packers 590.85
26. Washington Commanders 591.57
27. New Orleans Saints 604.13
28. Dallas Cowboys 609.73
29. Indianapolis Colts 614
30. San Francisco 49ers 641.53
31. Atlanta Falcons 644.93
32. Chicago Bears 647.98

 

The Bears and Cowboys are the teams that make both the top five easiest receiver schedules for both the regular season and playoffs. Chicago has the easiest for the entire playoffs. Once again, their top trio of receivers are looking pretty good come draft day.

Lamb continues to make his case to be the first receiver selected come draft day. He could have a monster season and finish strong as well with the fifth easiest schedule for the playoffs. Lamb might be the most surefire first-round pick come draft day.

The Falcons, 49ers and Colts also have a top-five favorable playoff schedule for receivers. Atlanta receivers were looking up to begin with, getting a legit quarterback throwing them passes this year. And this schedule makes their options look even better, especially Drake London. He could have a breakout season.

San Francisco has great options at receiver in Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. They are pretty safe picks come draft day. And they get a very favorable playoff schedule that could make them even more appealing to fantasy owners. These guys both have really solid floors come draft day in this offense.

Michael Pittman keeps getting it done as the No. 1 option for the Colts. If Anthony Richardson can become that true No. 1 at quarterback for Indy, Pittman would look even better. Pittman has produced in recent year despite having some quarterback issues. His game could go to a higher level this year if Richardson breaks out. Pittman could be a league winner if everything breaks his way in 2024.

The Chiefs and Dolphins are two of the best offenses in football but also the only two teams to make the top five most unfavorable receiver schedules for both the regular season and playoffs. This is a tad concerning for both teams, Again, it is tough to bet against Hill, but maybe you drop him down your rankings just few spots behind the other elite guys because of this. You hate to use an early round pick on a receiver to see him maybe not produce what he should come playoff time.

And as mentioned with the Chiefs, their top two receivers already face a few question marks, so maybe their tough schedules make them players to let someone else draft. Both Brown and Rice could be a little erratic.

The Rams actually have the toughest playoff schedule for receivers. They are another team with two of the best receivers in football. It is tough to bet against either Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp, but the playoff schedule is a little scary, especially for Kupp. He seems to be trending down at this stage of his career.

The Jaguars and Giants are the two other teams with a top-five unfavorable fantasy schedule for the playoffs. The Jags have Christian Kirk and Gabriel Davis as their top two receivers. Kirk is normally pretty steady but Davis can be boom or bust. Seeing his playoff schedule should bump him down a few spots in your rankings. It could be more of the same for Davis with his new team.

And the Giants are an outlier here, having an easy schedule for receivers during the regular season but the fourth toughest for the playoffs. This makes it tough come draft day. Their receivers could be good values for the regular season but disappoint when it counts. You do have to just make the playoffs, though, so we aren’t sure we shy away from Giant receivers just because of their tough playoff schedule. You still might be able to get good value with their options that help you win during the season.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Ray-Ray McCloud Dec 30 1:30am ET
Ray-Ray McCloud

Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Ray-Ray McCloud III caught his lone target for 13 yards and gained 14 additional yards on a rushing attempt in Sunday's 30-24 loss to the Commanders. It was an underwhelming performance from the 28-year-old, although his 14-yard run kept alive the game-tying fourth-quarter touchdown drive and got the Falcons down to the Washington five-yard line. But the offense doesn't typically support both he and Kyle Pitts, and Sunday was Pitts' night as he caught four passes including one for a touchdown. After catching no less than two passes in every game through Week 14, McCloud now has two one-catch games in the last three weeks. The Clemson product and the entire Falcons offense have a chance to end the regular season on a high note in Week 18, as they draw the Panthers at home in a game they need to win in order to have a shot at the playoffs.

From RotoBaller

Darnell Mooney Dec 30 1:20am ET
Darnell Mooney

Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Darnell Mooney could snag just two of his five targets in Sunday's 30-24 overtime loss to the Commanders, totaling 37 yards on his receptions. A week after leading the Falcons in receiving yards, the 27-year-old faded from the offense, but such is the case with a rookie quarterback. There will be ups and downs, but Mooney's down was an untimely one, letting many fantasy managers who put their faith in him down at the most crucial time of the fantasy season. Still, it has been a banner year for the fifth-year pro, who is just eight yards away from logging his second 1000-yard season, the last coming back in 2021 for the Bears. He has a good chance to hit that milestone in Week 18 against the Panthers, although he posted just a 3-38-0 line against them earlier this season.

From RotoBaller

Kyle Pitts Dec 30 1:10am ET
Kyle Pitts

Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts caught his first touchdown pass since Week 8 in Sunday night's 30-24 overtime loss to the Commanders, hauling in four of five targets for 44 yards and the score. It has been yet another disappointing season for the former first-round draft pick, but perhaps this can be the beginning of some rapport with his rookie quarterback that, if he can muster another decent outing next week, could build some momentum heading into next season. It's probably a long shot, though, but the 24-year-old does draw a favorable matchup next week against the Panthers in a must-win game for the Falcons. Carolina is one of the worst teams in allowing production to tight ends, although they allow production to all positions, so the Falcons should have multiple paths to victory.

From RotoBaller

Michael Penix Jr. Dec 30 12:50am ET
Michael Penix Jr.

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. nearly led his team to a win on Sunday Night Football, getting the team into position for a potential game-winning field goal, but the kick fell short and the Falcons ultimately lost 30-24 to the Commanders in overtime. The former first-round draft pick completed 19-of-35 passes for 223 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Some passes were clearly off-target, but others displayed the 24-year-old's talent level, including the game-tying touchdown pass to Kyle Pitts late in the fourth quarter. The rookie will get a chance to end the season on a high note and send the Falcons -- with some help from the Saints -- to the playoffs with a win against the Panthers in Week 18.

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Drake London Dec 30 12:30am ET
Drake London

Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London led the Falcons in receiving in Sunday's 30-24 overtime loss to the Commanders, hauling in seven of 13 targets for 106 yards, although he was unable to find the end zone. Michael Penix Jr. frequently looked London's way, with no other receiver getting more than five targets, but the lefty QB missed London streaking across the end zone late in the game with an off-target throw. Still, it was a strong showing from the former first-round draft pick, with the yardage total putting him over 1,000 yards receiving on the season, the first 1,000-yard season of his three-year career. The 6-foot-4 wideout gets a favorable home matchup against the Panthers in Week 18, a defense he put a 6-74-1 line on earlier this season.

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Robert Spillane Dec 30 12:20am ET
Robert Spillane

The Las Vegas Raiders defense/special teams allowed 10 points, forced two turnovers, and registered four sacks during Sunday's Week 17 win over the New Orleans Saints. Vegas' two turnovers were both interceptions, with one apiece from Jack Jones and Thomas Harper. Elsewhere on the stat sheet, six different players recorded at least half a sack. Robert Spillane was the Raiders' defensive leader once again with his eight tackles, one sack, two tackles for loss, and two passes defended. This Vegas unit had a productive outing against a poor Saints offense, but they'll get a tougher test in Week 18 when they face the Los Angeles Chargers. Fantasy managers in leagues with 14 or fewer teams can leave the Raiders on waivers as the season wraps up.

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Terry McLaurin Dec 30 12:20am ET
Terry McLaurin

Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin hauled in just one of his seven targets during their victory over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday evening. His lone catch went for just five yards. McLaurin had a tough time getting open facing standout Atlanta defensive back A.J. Terrell who shadowed him all evening. Instead, No.2 wide receiver Olamide Zaccheaus and tight end Zach Ertz did most of the damage through the air while Jayden Daniels added over 100 yards on the ground. This was only the fourth-time this season McLaurin tallied less than double-digit PPR points in a single game. Coming into this contest, the Ohio State product averaged 22.9 PPR points per game over his past four contests and found the end zone an impressive six times over this stretch. Despite the poor showing, McLaurin remains a must-start WR1 heading into a Week 18 matchup against the Dallas Cowboys.

From RotoBaller

Bijan Robinson Dec 30 12:20am ET
Bijan Robinson

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson handled 17 carries for 90 yards and scored two touchdowns in Sunday night's 30-24 overtime loss to the Commanders, adding three catches for eight yards as well. Robinson had 13 carries by halftime, but with Washington running two seven-minute-plus drives in the second half, the Falcons did not get a chance to run many plays and when they did, they were passing as they tried to play catch-up in the fourth quarter. It could have been an even more lucrative night as Atlanta ran Robinson out of the wildcat, but when they did so on 1st-and-goal from the five-yard line in the fourth quarter, the snap went over Robinson's head for a huge loss, with the drive ending in a 13-yard TD pass to Kyle Pitts instead. Nevertheless, the second-year pro surely helped fantasy managers to some championships on Sunday, and with one game left to go in the regular season, the former first-round draft pick will face the Panthers at home next week, a team he scored two TDs against earlier this season.

From RotoBaller

Xavier Legette Dec 30 12:10am ET
Xavier Legette

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Xavier Legette caught five of his nine targets for just 28 yards during Sunday's Week 17 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The rookie receiver returned from a one-week absence to lead the Panthers in targets and receptions, but his yardage output was relatively disappointing. Legette also played just 68.1 percent of the offensive snaps, which is lower than usual but could just be a reflection of the Panthers being cautious in his first game back from injury. Moving forward, Legette should be able to establish himself as Carolina's No. 2 receiver behind Adam Thielen, but that doesn't mean he won't occasionally be out-played by the likes of Jalen Coker and David Moore. Heading into Week 18 against the Atlanta Falcons, Legette ranks as a WR4.

From RotoBaller

Olamide Zaccheaus Dec 30 12:10am ET
Olamide Zaccheaus

Washington Commanders wide receiver Olamide Zaccheaus caught eight of his nine targets for 85 yards and a score during their victory over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday evening. Zaccheaus got on the scoresheet early catching the first score of the game on a seven-yard strike from Jayden Daniels. Zaccheaus' targets, receptions, and yards paced all other Washington pass catchers in this contest and was Daniels' go-to option all evening. His longest reception went for 16 yards. With Noah Brown (kidney) and Dyami Brown (hamstring) both sidelined, Zaccheaus has made the most of his opportunities. Over the past two games he has scored three touchdowns and tallied at least 70 yards in each game. He should be viewed as a solid flex option in Week 18 facing the Dallas Cowboys.

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Daniel Carlson Dec 30 12:10am ET
Daniel Carlson

Las Vegas Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson went 4-for-4 on field goals and also converted his lone extra-point attempt during Sunday's Week 17 win over the New Orleans Saints. His field goals came from 25, 31, 39, and 54 yards out. Carlson has now made four-plus field goals in 25 percent of his games this season, pushing him just inside the top 12 kickers (based on fantasy points) so far. Although his fantasy production has been relatively inconsistent due to the Raiders' developing offense, Carlson remains an intriguing weekly streamer with very high upside. He should continue to be viewed as a fringe top-12 kicking option in fantasy football ahead of Week 18 against the Los Angeles Chargers.

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Zach Ertz Dec 30 12:10am ET
Zach Ertz

Washington Commanders tight end Zach Ertz caught six of his seven targets for 72 yards and two touchdowns in their victory over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday night. Ertz had caught just three passes in total over his past two games but was able to snap this cold streak in a big way. The veteran tight end played a crucial role especially in the second half of this contest. Ertz found the end zone for the first time in the third quarter on a ten yard pass from Jayden Daniels. Then, the 34-year-old would play the hero as he hauled in the playoff-clinching score in overtime from two yards out. Despite his recent struggles, Ertz should continued to be viewed as a low-end TE1 playing on a high-octane Washington offense. He remains a solid play in all formats next weekend with Noah Brown (kidney) on the injured reserve as he should continue to see a reliable target share.

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Jayden Daniels Dec 30 12:00am ET
Jayden Daniels

Washington Commanders center Tyler Biadasz (groin) exited Sunday's Week 17 contest against the Atlanta Falcons and did not return. Washington left the door open for him to re-enter by listing him as questionable, and he did join his teammates on the sideline. However, he stayed off the field while Michael Deiter took over as the Commanders' center. Biadasz's status is worth monitoring given his integral role in snapping the football and protecting Jayden Daniels.

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Darius Slayton Dec 30 12:00am ET
Darius Slayton

New York Giants wide receiver Darius Slayton caught one of three targets during Sunday's Week 17 win over the Indianapolis Colts. His lone reception wound up being a 32-yard touchdown, giving him double-digit fantasy points in some PPR leagues. The 27-year-old's fantasy production has been minimal ever since the Giants benched and released Daniel Jones, but he was able to display a spark in the penultimate game of the regular season. Moving forward, most redraft managers can avoid Slayton as he remains New York's No. 3 wide receiver behind Malik Nabers and Wan'Dale Robinson.

From RotoBaller

Brian Robinson Jr. Dec 30 12:00am ET
Brian Robinson Jr.

Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. tallied 60 yards on 13 attempts in their victory over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday evening. Robinson caught both of his targets for nine yards. While Robinson did see most of the rushing attempts he was unable to find the back of the end zone for the third straight contest. Instead, backup running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. was given the red zone work and was able to punch in a score in the fourth quarter. Over his past three contests, Robinson has only eclipsed 60 rushing yards on one occasion and has only tallied more than 100 yards once over his past six contests. With Austin Ekeler (concussion) nearing a return, fantasy managers could expect Robinson to lose some opportunities especially during the playoffs. He should be viewed as a low-end RB2 heading into a Week 18 tilt against the Dallas Cowboys.

From RotoBaller

Tre Tucker Dec 30 12:00am ET
Tre Tucker

Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Tre Tucker was targeted eight times during Sunday's Week 17 win over the New Orleans Saints, but he ultimately caught just two passes for 14 yards and a touchdown. He also added a five-yard rush. It was a bizarre day for Tucker as he finished second on the team in targets but fourth in catches and fifth in receiving yards. Simply put, he and Aidan O'Connell weren't quite able to get on the same page very often in New Orleans. However, Tucker did salvage his fantasy showing by finding the end zone, giving him his first touchdown since Week 13 against the Chiefs (and just his third touchdown of the season). Tucker remains the Raiders' No. 2 receiver, but he'll be hard to trust in fantasy football when he takes on the Los Angeles Chargers next week.

From RotoBaller

Jalen Coker Dec 30 12:00am ET
Jalen Coker

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Jalen Coker caught each of his two targets for a total of 35 yards during Sunday's Week 17 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The second-year receiver out of Holy Cross has shown numerous flashes this season, but he's struggling to establish himself as a consistent option while competing for targets with Adam Thielen, David Moore, and Xavier Legette. Coker did play 87 percent of offensive snaps, tying his second-highest mark of the season. His 35 receiving yards also ranked second-most on the team behind Thielen, who had 110 yards and two touchdowns. Despite facing some growing pains in a developing Panthers offense, there's reason to believe that Coker could eventually become the team's clear-cut No. 3 receiver. He's an intriguing dynasty target ahead of the upcoming NFL (and fantasy football) offseason. Before then, he'll get one more chance to cement himself in the Panthers' offense when he faces the Atlanta Falcons in Week 18.

From RotoBaller

Chris Rodriguez Jr. Dec 30 12:00am ET
Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Washington Commanders running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. ran for 16 yards and a score on five carries on Sunday evening in their victory over the Atlanta Falcons. Rodriguez also tallied 12 yards on his lone reception. The sophomore running back punched in his score in the fourth quarter on a two-yard carry. While Brian Robinson Jr. saw the vast majority of the attempts, it is promising to see Rodriguez's name called late in the game. In this game, he logged four more attempts than the presumed No.2 option Jeremy McNichols. The Kentucky product has seen a slight uptick in opportunities with Austin Ekeler (concussion) on the injured reserve over the past month. However, with Ekeler nearing a return, fantasy managers should not expect him to have a consistent role in the offense moving forward. For now, he projects to be a desperation flex play in Week 18 against the Dallas Cowboys.

From RotoBaller

Jayden Daniels Dec 29 11:50pm ET
Jayden Daniels

Washington Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels went 24-for-36 with 227 passing yards and three scores en route to clinching a playoff spot by defeating the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday evening. Daniels added an impressive 127 yards on the ground on 16 attempts. Daniels found Olamide Zaccheaus in the opening quarter on a seven yard TD pass to open the scoring. In the third quarter, he found his tight end Zach Ertz on a ten yard TD pass. Then in overtime, Daniels found Ertz for the second time this evening to clinch the victory. Daniels has now led the game-winning drives in each of the past two games to lead Washington to their first playoff appearance since 2020. Over his past five games, Daniels has tallied 15 passing scores, two rushing scores and tallied over 300 scrimmage yards in three of them.

From RotoBaller

Jalen Nailor Dec 29 11:20pm ET
Jalen Nailor

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jalen Nailor hauled in all five of his targets for 81 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 27-25 win against the Green Bay Packers. The 25-year-old hadn't sniffed this sort of volume since way back in Week 7, but he was effective -- putting together his best outing of the season. The TD was Nailor's sixth, his first since Week 12. More so, the yardage and reception total were both season highs. With the Vikings' ground attack proving ineffective (2.7 YPC), QB Sam Darnold attempted his most passes of the season (43) en route to a career-high in passing (377). While it isn't a prescriptive performance, it's a reminder that the Michigan State product can at least work as, at worst, a tertiary option in this offense. It's possible he'll be involved again next weekend when Minnesota hosts their division-rival Detroit Lions in what presents as an exciting end-of-season tilt.

From RotoBaller