WR Strength of Schedule
Fri May 31 10:52am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Lamb could top last season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the receiver position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to receivers last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the receivers with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the receivers that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| WR SOS | ||
| 1. | Denver Broncos | 531.34 |
| 2. | Los Angeles Chargers | 536.08 |
| 3. | Miami Dolphins | 537.31 |
| 4. | Kansas City Chiefs | 549.96 |
| 5. | Las Vegas Raiders | 552.89 |
| 6. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 554.85 |
| 7. | New England Patriots | 555.93 |
| 8. | Buffalo Bills | 556.13 |
| 9. | Houston Texans | 561.75 |
| 10. | San Francisco 49ers | 565.73 |
| 11. | New Orleans Saints | 566.06 |
| 12. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 566.19 |
| 13. | Cincinnati Bengals | 566.32 |
| 14. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 570.07 |
| 15. | Baltimore Ravens | 571.77 |
| 16. | Seattle Seahawks | 573.41 |
| 17. | Minnesota Vikings | 573.91 |
| 18. | Philadelphia Eagles | 574.46 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 575.49 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Rams | 575.79 |
| 21. | Washington Commanders | 575.91 |
| 22. | Detroit Lions | 576.36 |
| 23. | Atlanta Falcons | 577.76 |
| 24. | New York Jets | 577.99 |
| 25. | Tennessee Titans | 578.06 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 578.18 |
| 27. | Cleveland Browns | 583.5 |
| 28. | Arizona Cardinals | 586.09 |
| 29. | New York Giants | 586.93 |
| 30. | Chicago Bears | 601.21 |
| 31. | Dallas Cowboys | 608.4 |
| 32. | Green Bay Packers | 610.22 |
The Packers have the easiest fantasy schedule for receivers. Jayden Reed and Christian Watson could be setup for career best seasons with this schedule. These are guys you can get a little later come draft day and mid-round options that could be difference makers for fantasy owners.
CeeDee Lamb is considered the No. 1 overall fantasy receiver for many and his schedule helps make that claim even stronger. Lamb has the second most favorable schedule for receivers. Lamb was huge last year and could improve on that even more, especially since the Cowboys could struggle to run the ball with their current options.
The Bears, Giants and Cardinals also round out the top-five most favorable receiver schedules. Chicago has a great trio of receivers with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze. These guys could produce big as long as rookie Caleb Williams gets the job done at quarterback in year one. Moore has more to compete with for targets this year, but you still have to like his chances for a big season in year two with the Bears.
The Giants and Cardinals both have some question marks at receiver, but a couple rookies lead the way for both teams. Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison could have big rookie seasons with their new teams. These guys both have a chance to lead all rookie fantasy receivers in scoring.
On the opposite side of things, the Broncos have the most challenging schedule for receivers. The Broncos have all sorts of questions at receiver outside of Courtland Sutton. This is a unit of receivers you just might want to avoid come draft day. This schedule won’t make anything easier for this group.
The Chargers are a similar team to the Broncos, having openings and questions at receiver. So once again, it might be best to let someone else put Chargers receivers on their roster. Plus, the Chargers could be a lot more run heavy with a new coach running the show. The tough schedule and new offense make taking any Chargers receiver a bit of a risk.
There are two really good offenses on the list that have tough schedules for receivers. Both the Dolphins and Chiefs have a top-five least favorable schedule for receivers. The Dolphins have one of the best receiver duos in football, so it is tough to fade them because of this schedule. Both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should be able to produce big numbers once again in this offense.
The Chiefs are a little more concerning. This offense is a little matchup proof, but don’t have that elite receiver on their roster. Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown lead the way. Brown hasn’t been great in recent seasons and Rice is facing a suspension. These guys will carry some risk come draft day, especially after seeing this schedule.
Davante Adams is usually another star receiver that is matchup proof, but you have to wonder a little this year. He has some question marks at quarterback, which could hurt his production when you pair it with this schedule. Adams is dealing with the fifth toughest fantasy schedule for receivers.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy receivers. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the receivers with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| WR PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | Los Angeles Rams | 501.93 |
| 2. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 515.53 |
| 3. | Kansas City Chiefs | 519.43 |
| 4. | New York Giants | 521.63 |
| 5. | Miami Dolphins | 532.77 |
| 6. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 534.53 |
| 7. | Houston Texans | 538 |
| 8. | Buffalo Bills | 540.87 |
| 9. | Las Vegas Raiders | 541.9 |
| 10. | Carolina Panthers | 549.33 |
| 11. | Cincinnati Bengals | 552.17 |
| 12. | Detroit Lions | 553.73 |
| 13. | Arizona Cardinals | 555.27 |
| 14. | Cleveland Browns | 555.4 |
| 15. | Minnesota Vikings | 560.93 |
| 16. | New England Patriots | 573.03 |
| 17. | Los Angeles Chargers | 573.1 |
| 18. | Tennessee Titans | 575.17 |
| 19. | Baltimore Ravens | 581.27 |
| 20. | Seattle Seahawks | 585.08 |
| 21. | New York Jets | 585.5 |
| 22. | Denver Broncos | 587.2 |
| 23. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 587.8 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 589.73 |
| 25. | Green Bay Packers | 590.85 |
| 26. | Washington Commanders | 591.57 |
| 27. | New Orleans Saints | 604.13 |
| 28. | Dallas Cowboys | 609.73 |
| 29. | Indianapolis Colts | 614 |
| 30. | San Francisco 49ers | 641.53 |
| 31. | Atlanta Falcons | 644.93 |
| 32. | Chicago Bears | 647.98 |
The Bears and Cowboys are the teams that make both the top five easiest receiver schedules for both the regular season and playoffs. Chicago has the easiest for the entire playoffs. Once again, their top trio of receivers are looking pretty good come draft day.
Lamb continues to make his case to be the first receiver selected come draft day. He could have a monster season and finish strong as well with the fifth easiest schedule for the playoffs. Lamb might be the most surefire first-round pick come draft day.
The Falcons, 49ers and Colts also have a top-five favorable playoff schedule for receivers. Atlanta receivers were looking up to begin with, getting a legit quarterback throwing them passes this year. And this schedule makes their options look even better, especially Drake London. He could have a breakout season.
San Francisco has great options at receiver in Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. They are pretty safe picks come draft day. And they get a very favorable playoff schedule that could make them even more appealing to fantasy owners. These guys both have really solid floors come draft day in this offense.
Michael Pittman keeps getting it done as the No. 1 option for the Colts. If Anthony Richardson can become that true No. 1 at quarterback for Indy, Pittman would look even better. Pittman has produced in recent year despite having some quarterback issues. His game could go to a higher level this year if Richardson breaks out. Pittman could be a league winner if everything breaks his way in 2024.
The Chiefs and Dolphins are two of the best offenses in football but also the only two teams to make the top five most unfavorable receiver schedules for both the regular season and playoffs. This is a tad concerning for both teams, Again, it is tough to bet against Hill, but maybe you drop him down your rankings just few spots behind the other elite guys because of this. You hate to use an early round pick on a receiver to see him maybe not produce what he should come playoff time.
And as mentioned with the Chiefs, their top two receivers already face a few question marks, so maybe their tough schedules make them players to let someone else draft. Both Brown and Rice could be a little erratic.
The Rams actually have the toughest playoff schedule for receivers. They are another team with two of the best receivers in football. It is tough to bet against either Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp, but the playoff schedule is a little scary, especially for Kupp. He seems to be trending down at this stage of his career.
The Jaguars and Giants are the two other teams with a top-five unfavorable fantasy schedule for the playoffs. The Jags have Christian Kirk and Gabriel Davis as their top two receivers. Kirk is normally pretty steady but Davis can be boom or bust. Seeing his playoff schedule should bump him down a few spots in your rankings. It could be more of the same for Davis with his new team.
And the Giants are an outlier here, having an easy schedule for receivers during the regular season but the fourth toughest for the playoffs. This makes it tough come draft day. Their receivers could be good values for the regular season but disappoint when it counts. You do have to just make the playoffs, though, so we aren’t sure we shy away from Giant receivers just because of their tough playoff schedule. You still might be able to get good value with their options that help you win during the season.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 2
Dynasty | Chargers rookie Ladd McConkey had two catches for 26 yards in the Chargers blowout win against the Panthers. Dynasty Analysis: Los Angeles got more than enough from JK Dobbins and Quentin Johnston in this one as McConkey was held in check. There should be better days ahead but McConkey willl need to string a few good games together to maintain his role after Johnston had a two-touchdown day and led the team in targets. McConkey's dynasty value is intact but he'll be a tough start moving forward.
Dynasty | Panthers receiver Diontae Johnson had just three catches for 15 yards in the Panthers blowout loss to the Chargers. Dynasty Analysis: Johnson now has just five catches for 34 scoreless yards in his first two games in Carolina. It's hardly his fault as Bryce Young has done virtually nothing so far this season. At this point, Johnson is going to be a "must-sit" until we see something from an offense that looks as bad as any we've seen in years to start this season.
Dynasty | 49ers running back Jordan Mason had 100 yards rushing and a touchdown in San Francisco's surprising loss at Minnesota. Dynasty Analysis: He added one catch for four yards. While Mason is hardly the same caliber of receiver Christian McCaffrey is, the offense seems very well-suited for his rushing style. His weekly ceiling may be capped moving forward if he doesn't get more targets. However, Mason has proven to be good enough to be a weekly starter, whether that's as a RB1 or RB2 moving forward.
Dynasty | Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold completed 17-of-26 passes for 268 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in the Vikings win against San Francisco. Dynasty Analysis: Darnold has had a dream start to the year as he's led Minnesota to 51 points and two wins to start the season. While Darnold isn't putting up video game numbers, he's making solid decisions and taking care of the football. Today's game was extremely promising as he held strong against one of the league's toughest defenses. He could have had an even bigger game had Aaron Jones not fumbled a "would be" touchdown in the second half at the goal line. Darnold is going to be in consideration in Superflex leagues moving forward and should be rostered everywhere.
Dynasty | Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson had four catches for 133 yards and a touchdown in Minnesota's win over the 49ers. Dynasty Analysis: Jefferson's day was highlighted by a 97-yard touchdown reception from a rejuvenated Sam Darnold. The bigger story could be the fact Jefferson left the game late with a quad injury. We'll wait and see just what the extent of the injury is but it's also clear Jefferson can maintain his WR1 status this year with or without Kirk Cousins after the second big day from Darnold.
Dynasty | Vikings running back Ty Chandler had 82 yards on just ten carries in the Vikings win over San Francisco. Dynasty Analysis: More importantly, Chandler had ten carries and Aaron Jones had nine. While this is just one game, it seems Minnesota may be heading more towards a time-share at this point between the two running backs. Chandler is a must-own in dynasty leagues as we monitor his touches very closely over the next couple of weeks.
Dynasty | Browns running back D'Onta Foreman had 42 yards on 14 carries in Cleveland's win over Jacksonville. Dynasty Analysis: More importantly, Foreman's 15 touches (he had one catch for nine yards) were more than the eight of Jerome Ford. Quite honestly, neither running back was very impressive on the day and the fact both were used this much may indeed make them unplayable going forward as the Cleveland offense has looked pretty inept so far this season. We'll continue to monitor the situation but neither back is going to be a recommended play until one or the other truly emerges.
Dynasty | Jags rookie Brian Thomas had two catches for 94 yards in Jacksonville's loss against Cleveland. Dynasty Analysis: Thomas only had four targets on the day but made the most of them with a 66-yard catch. Trevor Lawrence seems to be spreading the ball around a lot but Thomas also looks like the most explosive receiver on the team. While he should remain on benches, Thomas has looked the part thus far in his rookie season and his potential seems to have justified his lofty rookie draft ranking thus far.
Dynasty | Raiders tight end Brock Bowers had nine catches for 98 yards in the Raiders win over the Ravens. Dynasty Analysis: Bowers has done nothing to make anyone believe he's not the future at the position in dynasty leagues thus far after posting a whopping 15 catches in his first two games. While dynasty owners may be frustrating at him not finding the end zone yet, that's just a case of greed. Bowers is here to stay and looks like a "set it and forget it" option already in his young career.
Dynasty | Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely had just two catches for 26 yards in Baltimore's loss to Las Vegas. Dynasty Analysis: This isn't a huge surprise as Baltimore's passing offense still runs through Zay Flowers and they tend to run the ball as much as possible. Still, this is a clear letdown after last week's massive explosion. The simple fact is the Ravens now have two very capable tight ends as Mark Andrews (4/51/0) and Likely are making a duo that looks great in reality but frustrating in dynasty leagues. Likely's ascension up the rankings will halt after this one and he's going to be a tough start moving forward until we see another solid outing.
Dynasty | Jayden Daniels completed 23-of-29 passes for 226 yards, while adding 44 rushing yards in the Commanders win over the Giants. Dynasty Analysis: Daniels wasn't able to produce any touchdowns on the day but one thing is very clear after two weeks - Daniels has the "it" factor. Routinely making something out of nothing, Daniels simply willed the team to a win, his first as a starter in the NFL. There are going to be some better days statistically moving forward but it seems Washington has truly found their quarterback of the future. The buying window on Daniels is creeping shut.
Dynasty | Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers had ten catches for 127 yards and a touchdown in the Giants loss against Washington. Dynasty Analysis: Even more impressive, Nabers had a whopping 18 (!) of the 28 targets from Daniel Jones. While this target share is impossible to maintain, it's clear going to Nabers is the best bet for the Giants to have any success on offense this season and they're making every effort to give him the ball. His status as the #2 rookie is cemented and he's a must-start, top-15 receiver moving forward this season.
Dynasty | Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 12 catches for 117 yards in Seattle's road win over New England. Dynasty Analysis: JSN was held in check last week but today was a different story as Geno Smith looked his way a whopping 16 times. Smith-Njigba looks to be taking over the WR2 spot from Tyler Lockett this season and could be well on his way to a second year breakout. The dynasty arrow is clearly pointing up for JSN and he's going to be a solid WR3 moving forward.
Dynasty | Patriots rookie Ja'Lynn Polk had two catches for 12 yards and his first career touchdown in a loss against Seattle. Dynasty Analysis: Polk scored and that's the good news. The bad news is he now has just three catches for 18 yards on the season. This is simply an indictment on an offense that has done next to nothing to start the year and is simply going as far as running back Rhamondre Stevenson can take them. Polk's dynasty value is safe but he needs to remain on dynasty benches for the time being.
Dynasty | Jets rookie running back Braelon Allen had 33 rushing yards, two catches, 23 receiving yards and two touchdown in New York's win against Tennessee. Dynasty Analysis: The bad news is Allen was still out-touched 21-9 by Breece Hall. There is no running back controversy here as Hall is the unquestioned bellcow for the Jets. However, it's clear Allen has talent and if Hall was to ever miss time, Allen could be in line for a RB1 stretch. Allen remains a solid hold in dynasty leagues moving forward and a solid low-cost trade target for forward-thinking managers.
Dynasty | Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson completed 17-of-34 passes for 204 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions in a loss against Green Bay. Dynasty Analysis: One of the interceptions was on a last second hail mary, so that can hardly count against him. Still, Richardson wasn't sharp and his fantasy day couldn't be salvaged, even with his 37 rushing yards. There is work to do here and while Richardson seems healthy, we need to see more consistency before making him a lineup lock moving forward - such is life in the NFL for young quarterbacks.
Dynasty | Packers quarterback Malik Willis completed 12-of-14 passes for 122 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions in a win against Indianapolis. Dynasty Analysis: Willis also added 41 rushing yards on the day. The game plan for Green Bay is clear with Willis under center - they're going to run the ball with Josh Jacobs and have Willis manage football games. While that may seem like a buzzkill for dynasty managers, Willis looked surprisingly in control all day and while nobody is going to forget about Jordan Love, the trade Green Bay made for him looks like a genius move at this point. Willis belongs on dynasty rosters.
Dynasty | Packers receiver Dontayvion Wicks had three catches for 26 yards and a touchdown in Green Bay's win against the Colts. Dynasty Analysis: The stat line isn't going to "wow" anyone but this was a big step up from last week when Wicks failed to catch a single pass. After starring all preseason, this was a much needed game from Wicks, who has again reiterated he should be on dynasty rosters - a thought that was in question after last week. He remains a hold as the Packers attempt to survive without Jordan Love.
Dynasty | Saints running back Alvin Kamara had 115 rushing yards, two catches, 65 receiving yards, and four total touchdowns in the Saints upset loss at Dallas. Dynasty Analysis: The Saints have now scored 91 points in two games and Kamara's five touchdowns so far this season are just one behind his season total of six last year. To say this is a good development is a total understatement as it looks like Derek Carr is in total control of this offense and the Saints are poised for a serious bounce-back. While it's just a two game sample size, Kamara is looking like his old self and is a perfect target for a contending dynasty team as a productive, yet aging running back.
Dynasty | Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed had four catches for 96 yards and a touchdown in a win against Dallas. Dynasty Analysis: Shaheed was fancied about as a potential breakout player this year and the first two games have given dynasty managers seven catches for 169 yards and two touchdowns already. Shaheed isn't going to overtake Chris Olave (six catches for 92 scoreless yards on the season) as the WR1 in New Orleans but he's looking like a player who needs to be in lineups moving forward. His dynasty arrow is clearly pointing up as well.
