WR Strength of Schedule
Fri May 31 10:52am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Lamb could top last season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the receiver position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to receivers last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the receivers with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the receivers that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| WR SOS | ||
| 1. | Denver Broncos | 531.34 |
| 2. | Los Angeles Chargers | 536.08 |
| 3. | Miami Dolphins | 537.31 |
| 4. | Kansas City Chiefs | 549.96 |
| 5. | Las Vegas Raiders | 552.89 |
| 6. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 554.85 |
| 7. | New England Patriots | 555.93 |
| 8. | Buffalo Bills | 556.13 |
| 9. | Houston Texans | 561.75 |
| 10. | San Francisco 49ers | 565.73 |
| 11. | New Orleans Saints | 566.06 |
| 12. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 566.19 |
| 13. | Cincinnati Bengals | 566.32 |
| 14. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 570.07 |
| 15. | Baltimore Ravens | 571.77 |
| 16. | Seattle Seahawks | 573.41 |
| 17. | Minnesota Vikings | 573.91 |
| 18. | Philadelphia Eagles | 574.46 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 575.49 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Rams | 575.79 |
| 21. | Washington Commanders | 575.91 |
| 22. | Detroit Lions | 576.36 |
| 23. | Atlanta Falcons | 577.76 |
| 24. | New York Jets | 577.99 |
| 25. | Tennessee Titans | 578.06 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 578.18 |
| 27. | Cleveland Browns | 583.5 |
| 28. | Arizona Cardinals | 586.09 |
| 29. | New York Giants | 586.93 |
| 30. | Chicago Bears | 601.21 |
| 31. | Dallas Cowboys | 608.4 |
| 32. | Green Bay Packers | 610.22 |
The Packers have the easiest fantasy schedule for receivers. Jayden Reed and Christian Watson could be setup for career best seasons with this schedule. These are guys you can get a little later come draft day and mid-round options that could be difference makers for fantasy owners.
CeeDee Lamb is considered the No. 1 overall fantasy receiver for many and his schedule helps make that claim even stronger. Lamb has the second most favorable schedule for receivers. Lamb was huge last year and could improve on that even more, especially since the Cowboys could struggle to run the ball with their current options.
The Bears, Giants and Cardinals also round out the top-five most favorable receiver schedules. Chicago has a great trio of receivers with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze. These guys could produce big as long as rookie Caleb Williams gets the job done at quarterback in year one. Moore has more to compete with for targets this year, but you still have to like his chances for a big season in year two with the Bears.
The Giants and Cardinals both have some question marks at receiver, but a couple rookies lead the way for both teams. Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison could have big rookie seasons with their new teams. These guys both have a chance to lead all rookie fantasy receivers in scoring.
On the opposite side of things, the Broncos have the most challenging schedule for receivers. The Broncos have all sorts of questions at receiver outside of Courtland Sutton. This is a unit of receivers you just might want to avoid come draft day. This schedule won’t make anything easier for this group.
The Chargers are a similar team to the Broncos, having openings and questions at receiver. So once again, it might be best to let someone else put Chargers receivers on their roster. Plus, the Chargers could be a lot more run heavy with a new coach running the show. The tough schedule and new offense make taking any Chargers receiver a bit of a risk.
There are two really good offenses on the list that have tough schedules for receivers. Both the Dolphins and Chiefs have a top-five least favorable schedule for receivers. The Dolphins have one of the best receiver duos in football, so it is tough to fade them because of this schedule. Both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should be able to produce big numbers once again in this offense.
The Chiefs are a little more concerning. This offense is a little matchup proof, but don’t have that elite receiver on their roster. Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown lead the way. Brown hasn’t been great in recent seasons and Rice is facing a suspension. These guys will carry some risk come draft day, especially after seeing this schedule.
Davante Adams is usually another star receiver that is matchup proof, but you have to wonder a little this year. He has some question marks at quarterback, which could hurt his production when you pair it with this schedule. Adams is dealing with the fifth toughest fantasy schedule for receivers.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy receivers. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the receivers with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| WR PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | Los Angeles Rams | 501.93 |
| 2. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 515.53 |
| 3. | Kansas City Chiefs | 519.43 |
| 4. | New York Giants | 521.63 |
| 5. | Miami Dolphins | 532.77 |
| 6. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 534.53 |
| 7. | Houston Texans | 538 |
| 8. | Buffalo Bills | 540.87 |
| 9. | Las Vegas Raiders | 541.9 |
| 10. | Carolina Panthers | 549.33 |
| 11. | Cincinnati Bengals | 552.17 |
| 12. | Detroit Lions | 553.73 |
| 13. | Arizona Cardinals | 555.27 |
| 14. | Cleveland Browns | 555.4 |
| 15. | Minnesota Vikings | 560.93 |
| 16. | New England Patriots | 573.03 |
| 17. | Los Angeles Chargers | 573.1 |
| 18. | Tennessee Titans | 575.17 |
| 19. | Baltimore Ravens | 581.27 |
| 20. | Seattle Seahawks | 585.08 |
| 21. | New York Jets | 585.5 |
| 22. | Denver Broncos | 587.2 |
| 23. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 587.8 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 589.73 |
| 25. | Green Bay Packers | 590.85 |
| 26. | Washington Commanders | 591.57 |
| 27. | New Orleans Saints | 604.13 |
| 28. | Dallas Cowboys | 609.73 |
| 29. | Indianapolis Colts | 614 |
| 30. | San Francisco 49ers | 641.53 |
| 31. | Atlanta Falcons | 644.93 |
| 32. | Chicago Bears | 647.98 |
The Bears and Cowboys are the teams that make both the top five easiest receiver schedules for both the regular season and playoffs. Chicago has the easiest for the entire playoffs. Once again, their top trio of receivers are looking pretty good come draft day.
Lamb continues to make his case to be the first receiver selected come draft day. He could have a monster season and finish strong as well with the fifth easiest schedule for the playoffs. Lamb might be the most surefire first-round pick come draft day.
The Falcons, 49ers and Colts also have a top-five favorable playoff schedule for receivers. Atlanta receivers were looking up to begin with, getting a legit quarterback throwing them passes this year. And this schedule makes their options look even better, especially Drake London. He could have a breakout season.
San Francisco has great options at receiver in Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. They are pretty safe picks come draft day. And they get a very favorable playoff schedule that could make them even more appealing to fantasy owners. These guys both have really solid floors come draft day in this offense.
Michael Pittman keeps getting it done as the No. 1 option for the Colts. If Anthony Richardson can become that true No. 1 at quarterback for Indy, Pittman would look even better. Pittman has produced in recent year despite having some quarterback issues. His game could go to a higher level this year if Richardson breaks out. Pittman could be a league winner if everything breaks his way in 2024.
The Chiefs and Dolphins are two of the best offenses in football but also the only two teams to make the top five most unfavorable receiver schedules for both the regular season and playoffs. This is a tad concerning for both teams, Again, it is tough to bet against Hill, but maybe you drop him down your rankings just few spots behind the other elite guys because of this. You hate to use an early round pick on a receiver to see him maybe not produce what he should come playoff time.
And as mentioned with the Chiefs, their top two receivers already face a few question marks, so maybe their tough schedules make them players to let someone else draft. Both Brown and Rice could be a little erratic.
The Rams actually have the toughest playoff schedule for receivers. They are another team with two of the best receivers in football. It is tough to bet against either Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp, but the playoff schedule is a little scary, especially for Kupp. He seems to be trending down at this stage of his career.
The Jaguars and Giants are the two other teams with a top-five unfavorable fantasy schedule for the playoffs. The Jags have Christian Kirk and Gabriel Davis as their top two receivers. Kirk is normally pretty steady but Davis can be boom or bust. Seeing his playoff schedule should bump him down a few spots in your rankings. It could be more of the same for Davis with his new team.
And the Giants are an outlier here, having an easy schedule for receivers during the regular season but the fourth toughest for the playoffs. This makes it tough come draft day. Their receivers could be good values for the regular season but disappoint when it counts. You do have to just make the playoffs, though, so we aren’t sure we shy away from Giant receivers just because of their tough playoff schedule. You still might be able to get good value with their options that help you win during the season.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Bender's DFS Pickem Plays: Week 7
Dynasty | Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs had 116 rushing yards, four catches, 44 receiving yards and two touchdowns in a win against Minnesota. Dynasty Analysis: Gibbs took advantage of an early David Montgomery injury to post his best game of the season. While Montgomery did return to action, Gibbs carried the mail most of the day and showed just how talented he is. Unfortunately, this is going to be the way it goes with both in Detroit long-term. While it's great two have two premier running backs in reality, it's created a major buzzkill for dynasty managers. Still, Gibbs is a weekly play who can post games like this every week.
Dynasty | Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson completed 10-of-24 passes for 129 yards, adding 56 rushing yards in a win against Miami. Dynasty Analysis: In a game that wasn't exactly the NFL's signature showcase of the year, Richardson failed to throw a touchdown or an interception. He continues to carve out dynasty value with his legs, but also needs to improve dramatically as a passer before anyone believes he can really reach his ceiling. At this point, Richardson still looks like a project and his dynasty value is starting to slip.
Dynasty | Colts rookie receiver Adonai Mitchell had two catches for 30 yards in a win against Miami. Dynasty Analysis: In a weird statistical oddity, Mitchell has posted either between 30-39 yards or fewer than ten in each of his seven games this season. Today was one of the better ones, but you can hardly call this a breakout game. Mitchell is in the midst of a very disappointing year and while some of that can be attributed to poor quarterback play, Mitchell is also looking like a player who really needs some work. His dynasty value is starting to decrease and it seems valid at this point.
Dynasty | Packers quarterback Jordan Love completed 24-of-33 passes for 220 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in a win against Houston. Dynasty Analysis: Love has had an odd season thus far as he's thrown for 15 touchdowns (good) and eight interceptions (bad) in his five games this year. When you consider Love threw just 11 interceptions last season in 17 games, this is at least a mild concern. While dynasty managers shouldn't panic at this point, a few clean games from Love would certainly put some minds at ease. He remains a dynasty QB1 and solid player to build around at the moment.
Dynasty | Browns running back Nick Chubb had 22 rushing yards, one catch, ten receiving yards and a touchdown in a loss to the Bengals. Dynasty Analysis: Most importantly, Chubb entered and left the game healthy. The Browns are in the midst of a terrible season, sitting at 1-6 and having just likely lost their quarterback for the season. It was great to see Chubb back, but it's also fair to wonder just what he's going to be able to do if the Browns can't do something in the passing game. He'll remain a flex play moving forward, though it was encouraged to see him get 11 of the 16 running back carries.
Dynasty | Bengals running back Chase Brown had 44 rushing yards, two catches and nine receiving yards in a win against the Browns. Dynasty Analysis: More importantly, Brown had 17 touches and Zack Moss had just nine. This could represent a changing of the guard by the Bengals and while Moss has been pretty steady, Brown clearly looks like the more explosive option. Neither running back is going to be worth more than flex consideration unless the other one gets hurt, but Brown is certainly making some progress and his dynasty arrow is pointing up.
Dynasty | Browns wide receiver Cedric Tillman had eight catches for 81 yards in a loss to the Bengals. Dynasty Analysis: With Amari Cooper now in Buffalo, Tillman had a whopping 12 targets on the day, trailing only the 14 from David Njoku. This is notable as Jerry Jeudy had just one catch on five targets today. We'll need to see more from Tillman moving forward but he should most certainly be on dynasty rosters and could have a big second half.
Dynasty | Browns quarterback Jameis Winston completed five-of-11 passes for 67 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions in a loss to the Bengals. Dynasty Analysis: Winston came in for mop up duty after the Browns lost both Deshaun Watson (Achilles) and Dorian Thompson-Robinson (finger) to injuries. It's certainly notable he was the emergency quarterback behind DTR today as Watson was likely lost for the season. Winston could be in line to start games starting this next week, so he should certainly be on rosters moving forward.
Dynasty | Bills rookie receiver Keon Coleman had four catches for 125 yards in a win against Tennessee. Dynasty Analysis: Coleman came into the game with just 201 receiving yards on the year, so this was by far his best performance. With Amari Cooper commanding attention in a revamped passing game, this was a great sign for the future. Coleman is still a risky play, but he's looking more and more like a player progressing and proving his worth as a late first round rookie pick.
Dynasty | Bills wide receiver Amari Cooper had four catches for 66 yards and a touchdown in his Bills debut. Dynasty Analysis: Yep, that's about what Buffalo needed. With an emerging Keon Coleman (125 yards on the day) and a veteran presence like Cooper, it looks like the Bills may be gearing up for yet another run. Cooper looks like a solid veteran target for dynasty managers, but his touchdown today and potential future in Buffalo is likely going to command a late first round pick to acquire.
Dynasty | Bills running back Ray Davis had 41 rushing yards, one catch, six receiving yards and a touchdown in a win against the Titans. Dynasty Analysis: James Cook was back this week, but Davis still had six touches and made the most of them. With Davis playing this well, it's going to be tough to keep him off the field and give Cook all the opportunities moving forward. He looks like a solid handcuff at worst and should be a highly sought after dynasty asset as a late round rookie pick who has looked the part thus far.
Dynasty | Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley had three catches for 42 yards in a loss against the Bills. Dynasty Analysis: Ridley was talked about a lot this week after being held catchless last week. He had just three grabs this week, but his nine targets led the team by a wide margin. It's fair to wonder just what Ridley is going to be able to do in an offense that simply looks lost, but this was at least a small step in the right direction. Ridley looks like a potential buy low for dynasty managers looking to add a veteran receiver who at least has some upside.
Dynasty | Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf had four catches for 99 yards and a touchdown before exiting with a knee injury in Seattle's road win against Atlanta. Dynasty Analysis: Metcalf had a solid afternoon, but dynasty managers are deeply concerned after he left the sidelines on a cart with what the team later said was a knee injury. For what it's worth, Head Coach Mike Macdonald said at his post-game news conference that it doesn't look too bad and that Metcalf just banged it with another player. We'll see, but any loss of time for Metcalf would open up things for Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett. Stay tuned.
Dynasty | Falcons running back Bijan Robinson had 103 rushing yards, three catches, 40 receiving yards and a touchdown in a loss against Seattle. Dynasty Analysis: The Seahawks defense has been awful over the past month, but this was still a step in the right direction for Robinson. Even better (and more importantly), Robinson had 24 touches and fellow running back Tyler Allgeier had just six. If that kind of timeshare continues, Robinson could post RB1 numbers each and every week. If there was a quick buy low window, it likely just shut.
Dynasty | Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts had seven catches for 65 yards in a home loss against Seattle. Dynasty Analysis: Pitts has had a weird season thus far but this was his third straight game with at least 65 receiving yards and he led Atlanta in targets on the day with nine. While the lack of touchdowns (he somehow has just seven in his 50 career games), it at least looks like Atlanta is committing to him each week. With 21 targets over the past three games, the buying window on Pitts has closed and he looks again like a solid TE1 moving forward.
Dynasty | Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels completed 2-of-2 passes for six yards, ran for 50 additional yards, but exited the game early with a rib injury in a win against Carolina. Dynasty Analysis: The Commanders blew out Carolina in what amounted to a total bludgeoning. The big concern is in relation to Daniels and his health. On the good news front, Daniels did return to the sideline after going to the locker room and while he was in street clothes, Washington had the game in hand and there was no need to risk him. We'll watch the news closely, but this doesn't have the looks of a serious long-term injury.
Dynasty | Panthers tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders had six catches for 61 yards in a blowout loss to Washington. Dynasty Analysis: After starting the season slowly, Sanders now has put together two straight solid performances. While we need to see more from the rookie before recommending him in dynasty lineups, he seems to be coming along nicely and justifying his third round rookie draft pedigree. He seems like a relatively solid hold in dynasty leagues at the moment.
Dynasty | Commanders quarterback Marcus Mariota completed 18-of-23 passes for 205 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in a win against Carolina. Dynasty Analysis: Mariota added 34 rushing yards on the day to cap off a solid performance. While no threat to Jayden Daniels in the long-term, Mariota proved yet again to be a capable backup in the league. Dynasty managers could certainly consider picking him up should Daniels miss time as Washington suddenly seems like a very capable team.
Dynasty | Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt rushed for 78 yards and two touchdowns in a win against the 49ers. Dynasty Analysis: #turnbacktheclock. Hunt was solid for the second game in a row and while he isn't providing many home run plays, he's proven to still have a lot of juice left in the tank. He had 22 carries in this one and ceded only six to the other running backs. At this point, it's clear the Chiefs view Hunt as the lead back on team that doesn't have trouble scoring points. At this point, Hunt looks like a premier target for dynasty contenders looking for a short-term assassin in their dynasty league.
Dynasty | Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy had three catches for 19 yards in the Chiefs win against the 49ers. Dynasty Analysis: On the plus side, he did have eight targets to lead the team. Worthy has made some splash plays but just hasn't been able to string together much consistency thus far. While his future is bright, it seems clear he still needs some time to develop. Kansas City keeps losing receivers seemingly each week, so he'll keep getting opportunities. However, we'll need to see more before recommending him in lineups.
