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FFL: Week 1 | NFL: Week 1

WR Strength of Schedule

Fri May 31 10:52am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Lamb could top last season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the receiver position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to receivers last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the receivers with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the receivers that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  WR SOS  
1. Denver Broncos 531.34
2. Los Angeles Chargers 536.08
3. Miami Dolphins 537.31
4. Kansas City Chiefs 549.96
5. Las Vegas Raiders 552.89
6. Pittsburgh Steelers 554.85
7. New England Patriots 555.93
8. Buffalo Bills 556.13
9. Houston Texans 561.75
10. San Francisco 49ers 565.73
11. New Orleans Saints 566.06
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 566.19
13. Cincinnati Bengals 566.32
14. Jacksonville Jaguars 570.07
15. Baltimore Ravens 571.77
16. Seattle Seahawks 573.41
17. Minnesota Vikings 573.91
18. Philadelphia Eagles 574.46
19. Carolina Panthers 575.49
20. Los Angeles Rams 575.79
21. Washington Commanders 575.91
22. Detroit Lions 576.36
23. Atlanta Falcons 577.76
24. New York Jets 577.99
25. Tennessee Titans 578.06
26. Indianapolis Colts 578.18
27. Cleveland Browns 583.5
28. Arizona Cardinals 586.09
29. New York Giants 586.93
30. Chicago Bears 601.21
31. Dallas Cowboys 608.4
32. Green Bay Packers 610.22

 

The Packers have the easiest fantasy schedule for receivers. Jayden Reed and Christian Watson could be setup for career best seasons with this schedule. These are guys you can get a little later come draft day and mid-round options that could be difference makers for fantasy owners.

CeeDee Lamb is considered the No. 1 overall fantasy receiver for many and his schedule helps make that claim even stronger. Lamb has the second most favorable schedule for receivers. Lamb was huge last year and could improve on that even more, especially since the Cowboys could struggle to run the ball with their current options.

The Bears, Giants and Cardinals also round out the top-five most favorable receiver schedules. Chicago has a great trio of receivers with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze.  These guys could produce big as long as rookie Caleb Williams gets the job done at quarterback in year one. Moore has more to compete with for targets this year, but you still have to like his chances for a big season in year two with the Bears.

The Giants and Cardinals both have some question marks at receiver, but a couple rookies lead the way for both teams. Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison could have big rookie seasons with their new teams. These guys both have a chance to lead all rookie fantasy receivers in scoring.

On the opposite side of things, the Broncos have the most challenging schedule for receivers. The Broncos have all sorts of questions at receiver outside of Courtland Sutton. This is a unit of receivers you just might want to avoid come draft day. This schedule won’t make anything easier for this group.

The Chargers are a similar team to the Broncos, having openings and questions at receiver. So once again, it might be best to let someone else put Chargers receivers on their roster. Plus, the Chargers could be a lot more run heavy with a new coach running the show. The tough schedule and new offense make taking any Chargers receiver a bit of a risk.

There are two really good offenses on the list that have tough schedules for receivers. Both the Dolphins and Chiefs have a top-five least favorable schedule for receivers. The Dolphins have one of the best receiver duos in football, so it is tough to fade them because of this schedule. Both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should be able to produce big numbers once again in this offense.

The Chiefs are a little more concerning. This offense is a little matchup proof, but don’t have that elite receiver on their roster. Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown lead the way. Brown hasn’t been great in recent seasons and Rice is facing a suspension. These guys will carry some risk come draft day, especially after seeing this schedule.

Davante Adams is usually another star receiver that is matchup proof, but you have to wonder a little this year. He has some question marks at quarterback, which could hurt his production when you pair it with this schedule. Adams is dealing with the fifth toughest fantasy schedule for receivers.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy receivers. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the receivers with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  WR PLAYOFF SOS  
1. Los Angeles Rams 501.93
2. Jacksonville Jaguars 515.53
3. Kansas City Chiefs 519.43
4. New York Giants 521.63
5. Miami Dolphins 532.77
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 534.53
7. Houston Texans 538
8. Buffalo Bills 540.87
9. Las Vegas Raiders 541.9
10. Carolina Panthers 549.33
11. Cincinnati Bengals 552.17
12. Detroit Lions 553.73
13. Arizona Cardinals 555.27
14. Cleveland Browns 555.4
15. Minnesota Vikings 560.93
16. New England Patriots 573.03
17. Los Angeles Chargers 573.1
18. Tennessee Titans 575.17
19. Baltimore Ravens 581.27
20. Seattle Seahawks 585.08
21. New York Jets 585.5
22. Denver Broncos 587.2
23. Pittsburgh Steelers 587.8
24. Philadelphia Eagles 589.73
25. Green Bay Packers 590.85
26. Washington Commanders 591.57
27. New Orleans Saints 604.13
28. Dallas Cowboys 609.73
29. Indianapolis Colts 614
30. San Francisco 49ers 641.53
31. Atlanta Falcons 644.93
32. Chicago Bears 647.98

 

The Bears and Cowboys are the teams that make both the top five easiest receiver schedules for both the regular season and playoffs. Chicago has the easiest for the entire playoffs. Once again, their top trio of receivers are looking pretty good come draft day.

Lamb continues to make his case to be the first receiver selected come draft day. He could have a monster season and finish strong as well with the fifth easiest schedule for the playoffs. Lamb might be the most surefire first-round pick come draft day.

The Falcons, 49ers and Colts also have a top-five favorable playoff schedule for receivers. Atlanta receivers were looking up to begin with, getting a legit quarterback throwing them passes this year. And this schedule makes their options look even better, especially Drake London. He could have a breakout season.

San Francisco has great options at receiver in Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. They are pretty safe picks come draft day. And they get a very favorable playoff schedule that could make them even more appealing to fantasy owners. These guys both have really solid floors come draft day in this offense.

Michael Pittman keeps getting it done as the No. 1 option for the Colts. If Anthony Richardson can become that true No. 1 at quarterback for Indy, Pittman would look even better. Pittman has produced in recent year despite having some quarterback issues. His game could go to a higher level this year if Richardson breaks out. Pittman could be a league winner if everything breaks his way in 2024.

The Chiefs and Dolphins are two of the best offenses in football but also the only two teams to make the top five most unfavorable receiver schedules for both the regular season and playoffs. This is a tad concerning for both teams, Again, it is tough to bet against Hill, but maybe you drop him down your rankings just few spots behind the other elite guys because of this. You hate to use an early round pick on a receiver to see him maybe not produce what he should come playoff time.

And as mentioned with the Chiefs, their top two receivers already face a few question marks, so maybe their tough schedules make them players to let someone else draft. Both Brown and Rice could be a little erratic.

The Rams actually have the toughest playoff schedule for receivers. They are another team with two of the best receivers in football. It is tough to bet against either Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp, but the playoff schedule is a little scary, especially for Kupp. He seems to be trending down at this stage of his career.

The Jaguars and Giants are the two other teams with a top-five unfavorable fantasy schedule for the playoffs. The Jags have Christian Kirk and Gabriel Davis as their top two receivers. Kirk is normally pretty steady but Davis can be boom or bust. Seeing his playoff schedule should bump him down a few spots in your rankings. It could be more of the same for Davis with his new team.

And the Giants are an outlier here, having an easy schedule for receivers during the regular season but the fourth toughest for the playoffs. This makes it tough come draft day. Their receivers could be good values for the regular season but disappoint when it counts. You do have to just make the playoffs, though, so we aren’t sure we shy away from Giant receivers just because of their tough playoff schedule. You still might be able to get good value with their options that help you win during the season.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Jalen Ramsey Sep 6 12:20pm ET
Jalen Ramsey

Miami Dolphins cornerback Jalen Ramsey signed a massive three-year extension totaling $72.3M which makes him the highest-paid cornerback in the sport, according to Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network. This deal was negotiated by David Mulugheta of Athletes First. The 29-year-old now once again sits as the highest-paid cornerback just days after Patrick Surtain of the Denver Broncos received his first NFL extension, which put him in the top spot for only a few days. Ramsey was limited to just ten games of NFL action last season but still made his mark by intercepting three passes and making 22 total tackles. Ramsey is currently battling a hamstring injury and is in danger of missing the season opener. Fantasy managers playing in an IDP league should continue to monitor the 29-year-old's status entering the weekend.

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Pete Werner Sep 6 12:10pm ET
Pete Werner

The New Orleans Saints' defense and special teams have one of the strongest Week 1 matchups as they face the Carolina Panthers. Although Pete Werner (shoulder), Willie Gay Jr. (back), and Marshon Lattimore (hip) are on the injury report, all three should be good to go on Sunday. New Orleans remains one of the stronger defensive units in the league, and performed strongly in both matchups with Carolina a season ago. Start the Saints' defense in Week 1.

From RotoBaller

Rashee Rice Sep 6 12:10pm ET
Rashee Rice

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice will likely not miss any time during the 2024 season as he awaits a trial date for his felony charges of street racing, according to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. Florio reports that a guilty plea in 2024 is unlikely as Rice has no official trial date. Florio's sources express that since the trial will not happen until December (at the earliest), there is no urgency to reach a plea deal. Florio further emphasized that Rice will likely be suspended at some time, but it is hard to picture that he will miss time this season. Fantasy managers who have Rice on their team should continue to follow any updates regarding his legal issues throughout the season in case he does miss time. After being a league-winner down the stretch last season, the 24-year-old continued his breakout run by catching seven passes for 103 yards in the season opener on Thursday. Rice should continue to be a lineup lock for the foreseeable future as he is shaping up to be Patrick Mahomes' go-to option in the passing game.

From RotoBaller

Juwan Johnson Sep 6 12:00pm ET
Juwan Johnson

New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson opened camp up on the PUP list, but is now fully recovered from his June foot surgery. Johnson had a down season a year ago, finishing as the TE26 overall. The veteran is available in many leagues, but could emerge as a consistent target earner behind Chris Olave. He grades as a low-end TE2 for Week 1, making him a very deep option, but the matchup with Carolina is not a great one for tight ends. Leave Johnson on the waiver wire for now, but monitor his Week 1 target share.

From RotoBaller

Taysom Hill Sep 6 12:00pm ET
Taysom Hill

New Orleans Saints tight end Taysom Hill showed in the preseason that he again will be used in the Saints' offense, creating headaches for fantasy managers. Hill is a high-end TE2 in Week 1 against Carolina, whose porous rush defense may open up opportunities for Hill to find the endzone. He likely won't pay off without a touchdown but is a solid tight end flier if your team lacks one of the top options. Hill's red zone usage will determine if he can be a viable fantasy option after he finished as the TE10 a season ago.

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Kyler Murray Sep 6 12:00pm ET
Kyler Murray

Two new safeties, the loss of a key pass-rusher, and a linebacker on Injured Reserve. This is not the same Buffalo DST that finished third in fantasy football scoring a season ago. Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin take over for longtime starting safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. Pass rusher Leonard Floyd moved to the Bay Area and linebacker Matt Milano (bicep) will miss most of the season with an injury. The coaching staff won't have the luxury of easing new faces into the starting lineup. While the Arizona Cardinals didn't improve their defense, the offense should take a big step forward. Kyler Murray is another season removed from an ACL tear and they added a number-one receiver (Marvin Harrison Jr.) through the NFL Draft. Add in running back James Conner and tight end Trey McBride and this offense has more than enough firepower to put up points. The Bills are a middle-of-the-pack DST for Week 1. Fantasy managers should be able to find another streaming option (Seattle, Atlanta, or Cincinnati) to plug and play in Week 1.

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Blake Grupe Sep 6 12:00pm ET
Blake Grupe

New Orleans Saints' second-year kicker Blake Grupe is an option at the kicker position heading into Week 1's tout with the Carolina Panthers. Grupe had a solid rookie season, converting 30-of-37 field goal attempts with a long of 55 yards. The Notre Dame product finished the season strong and will look to carry over his late-season success into Week 1. Carolina allowed the fourteenth-most points to kickers a season ago, making it a solid matchup for Grupe.

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Khalil Shakir Sep 6 11:50am ET
Khalil Shakir

The one returning Buffalo Bill at the position, Khalil Shakir could become the top wide receiver option for Josh Allen in 2024. While he may be the betting favorite, the target distribution in Buffalo is one of the biggest question marks for fantasy football. Shakir, Curtis Samuel, and rookie Keon Coleman were all selected late in fantasy football drafts. Shakir will operate primarily out of the slot, giving him a safe PPR floor against a shaky Arizona defense. It's hard to project Shakir or any other wideouts booming in the team's season opener. Allen will spread the ball around while they establish a hierarchy. Because of the uncertainty, Shakir can be left on benches as a WR4 in most league formats and sizes. But if there's one Buffalo wide receiver to start in Week 1, it's Shakir.

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Rashid Shaheed Sep 6 11:50am ET
Rashid Shaheed

New Orleans Saints receiver Rashid Shaheed has been dealing with a foot injury over the past couple of weeks, but the third-year speedster avoided the injury report heading into Week 1's matchup against the Carolina Panthers. Shaheed could see a more consistent target share than he has in years past with Michael Thomas no longer on the roster, but he remains a boom-or-bust option until he proves otherwise. Against a Carolina defense that is favorable to the run game, Shaheed is best left on benches as a stash.

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Ja'Marr Chase Sep 6 11:50am ET
Ja'Marr Chase

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase was spotted at practice on Friday ahead of the team's Week 1 matchup against the New England Patriots. Despite his lengthy training camp hold-in, Chase appears on track to play Sunday. However, Tee Higgins showed up on the injury report on Thursday with a hamstring injury. After being a limited participant on Thursday, Higgins wasn't out on the field at the start of Friday's practice. Going from a limited participant to a non-participant this late in the week likely means he won't play on Sunday. Jermaine Burton and Andrei Iosivas would benefit if Higgins misses Sunday's contest.

From RotoBaller

Curtis Samuel Sep 6 11:50am ET
Curtis Samuel

The Buffalo Bills completely revamped their wide receiver room over the offseason, with one of the notable additions being Curtis Samuel. The do-it-all wideout has been good for at least 50 receptions in every season since 2019 (excluding a season-ending injury early in 2021) and a handful of carries out of the backfield. A turf toe injury has kept Samuel from fully participating in training camp and building a rapport with new quarterback Josh Allen. He's practicing in full leading up to the matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. Still, there's too much uncertainty in target distribution in upstate New York. Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Samuel are all competing to be the top dog in Buffalo. Samuel is worth a bench spot in fantasy football while we wait to see who Allen favors to target, but shouldn't be started in the meantime.

From RotoBaller

Alvin Kamara Sep 6 11:40am ET
Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints veteran running back Alvin Kamara is set to handle his typical workload on Sunday as he suits up to face the Carolina Panthers. With New Orleans favored, it is possible that we see them stick to the ground game against the divisional rival. Carolina's rush defense surrendered the 10th most yards in the league a season ago, and may have even more holes heading into 2024. With Kendre Miller (hamstring) on the injured reserve and Jamaal Williams coming off of a down year, Kamara should be set to dominate touches. He is a low-end RB1 in Week 1 in a plus matchup.

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Chris Olave Sep 6 11:40am ET
Chris Olave

New Orleans Saints receiver Chris Olave should once again be set to lead the receiving room in 2024 after the departure of the oft-injured Michael Thomas. Olave was commonly selected in Round 2 of fantasy drafts this draft season, making it likely that he will be thrust into starting lineups in Week 1. Expectations should be tempered, as Carolina offers a strong matchup on the ground but a weaker matchup for receivers. Olave is in WR2 territory entering his season debut, and is the favorite to lead the team in targets.

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Derek Carr Sep 6 11:30am ET
Derek Carr

New Orleans Saints' quarterback Derek Carr finished as the QB16 overall last season after some impressive games down the stretch. To kick off 2024, he will face a Carolina defense that has many holes. The matchup still isn't beautiful, as both of these teams like to win through their defense and we could be faced with a lower-scoring game. Carr grades as a low-end QB2 in Week 1, as he has a safe floor but does not offer much of a ceiling. There are likely better options available in leagues where you can start multiple quarterbacks.

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Keon Coleman Sep 6 11:20am ET
Keon Coleman

How will the target share be spread out in Buffalo? That's the question many fantasy managers are asking as we approach the Bills' season opener. Tight end Dalton Kincaid is projected to lead the team, with receivers Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Curtis Samuel not far behind. Coleman, a second-round pick, is unlike the other two receivers. He's a big body who can develop into a deep threat. He struggles with separation, an issue that could impact him early, even against a weak Arizona secondary. The key is whether Josh Allen and the rookie have developed enough chemistry and timing to get the football where Coleman can make a play. It wouldn't be a big surprise to see Coleman break off a long reception in his NFL debut, but it's a risky gamble. It's safer for fantasy managers to watch how the target and snap shares shake out before inserting Coleman into starting lineups.

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Dalton Kincaid Sep 6 11:10am ET
Dalton Kincaid

With 241 targets vacated between the now-departed Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, tight end Dalton Kincaid takes the title of Buffalo's top receiver. When Kincaid was given the starting job midway through last season, he secured at least five receptions in every matchup from Weeks 7 through 14. He finished second on the team in targets (91). Rookie Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Curtis Samuel are his primary target competitors in year two. The sportsbooks are banking on the talented second-year professional improving and adding more offensive responsibility to his plate in 2024. He's the betting favorite to lead the Bills in receptions and yards on Sunday. The breakout candidate was drafted as a TE1 in fantasy football and should be started as such against the Cardinals.

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Ray Davis Sep 6 11:00am ET
Ray Davis

When Josh Allen wasn't poaching touchdowns from James Cook in 2023, it was 33-year-old Latavius Murray. The veteran logged 17 carries inside the 10 and 11 inside the five-yard line. That role is now projected to be filled by rookie Ray Davis, a fourth-round pick out of Kentucky. The 24-year-old scored 14 touchdowns in his senior season and has the size to finish runs in the red zone. He'll open the season behind James Cook and Ty Johnson on the depth chart. The backups will split a limited amount of touches in Week 1, depending on the situation. Without a healthy amount of opportunities, Davis will need to find paydirt to turn a respectable fantasy football debut. He's a bench stash until proven otherwise.

From RotoBaller

Josh Allen Sep 6 10:50am ET
Josh Allen

There's little concern for the top quarterback in fantasy football in Week 1. Josh Allen, who finished as the QB1 in three of the last four seasons, will face off against the Arizona Cardinals at home. While the Cardinals' offense has improved from a year ago, the defense remains a work in progress. The roster is devoid of quality pass rushers. Allen should have all day to throw the football, letting his new receiving corps shake the secondary. He ranked second in clean pocket accuracy rating in 2023. Rookie Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Khalil Shakir are tasked with replacing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Tight end Dalton Kincaid will also be heavily involved. There's no reason to shy away from Allen in Week 1.

From RotoBaller

James Cook Sep 6 10:50am ET
James Cook

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook is again opening the season as the lead back in Buffalo. Despite concerns over touches near the endzone, Cook should be started in all fantasy football leagues. A low touchdown total (six) was the only blemish from Cook's RB12 finish from a season ago. He totaled 1,567 yards and caught 44 passes, despite only playing more than 70% of the team's snaps once. Cook could be even more involved in the passing game in 2024, with two of Buffalo's top target earners (Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis) on other rosters. The Cardinals ranked dead last in rushing yards allowed to running backs in 2023 (2,027) and surrendered eight receiving touchdowns to the position, the most in the NFL. Even if Cook is vultured by Josh Allen or rookie Ray Davis in the red zone, it should still be a productive day for fantasy football.

From RotoBaller

Mark Andrews Sep 6 10:40am ET
Mark Andrews

Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews turned in a very quiet game during the 20-27 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday. The veteran only received two targets and he caught both of them for 14 yards. The hot hand at tight end in this game went to Isaiah Likely who received 12 targets compared to Andrews' two. A silver lining for fantasy managers is that Andrews still played more snaps and ran more routes than Likely in this game, so his opportunities will likely remain high as the season progresses. According to PFF, he played 59 snaps and ran 38 routes compared to Likely's 53 snaps and 35 routes. Andrews might not be the target sponge he once was, but that remains to be seen while the Ravens take on the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 2 looking for a bounce-back win.

From RotoBaller