TE Strength of Schedule
Tue Jun 11 11:11am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Bowers could have big year one
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the tight end position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to tight ends last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the tight ends with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the tight ends that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| TE SOS | ||
| 1. | Cincinnati Bengals | 186.39 |
| 2. | Miami Dolphins | 193.98 |
| 3. | Philadelphia Eagles | 196.38 |
| 4. | Washington Commanders | 197.75 |
| 5. | Houston Texans | 198.15 |
| 6. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 199.18 |
| 7. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 199.68 |
| 8. | New York Giants | 201 |
| 9. | Dallas Cowboys | 201.18 |
| 10. | Los Angeles Rams | 201.38 |
| 11. | Buffalo Bills | 201.39 |
| 12. | Chicago Bears | 201.66 |
| 13. | Arizona Cardinals | 201.76 |
| 14. | New York Jets | 202.56 |
| 15. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 202.86 |
| 16. | Baltimore Ravens | 203.04 |
| 17. | Denver Broncos | 203.95 |
| 18. | Los Angeles Chargers | 204.02 |
| 19. | Atlanta Falcons | 204.25 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 204.59 |
| 21. | New Orleans Saints | 205.62 |
| 22. | Seattle Seahawks | 205.73 |
| 23. | San Francisco 49ers | 206.80 |
| 24. | Indianapolis Colts | 206.89 |
| 25. | Detroit Lions | 207.92 |
| 26. | New England Patriots | 208.23 |
| 27. | Kansas City Chiefs | 210.92 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 211.44 |
| 29. | Green Bay Packers | 212.07 |
| 30. | Minnesota Vikings | 212.23 |
| 31. | Carolina Panthers | 213.66 |
| 32. | Las Vegas Raiders | 213.81 |
A rookie led fantasy tight ends in scoring last year and the top rated rookie tight end this year gets the easiest fantasy schedule for tight end. Brock Browers and the Raiders have the most favorable schedule for tight ends. Sam LaPorta showed last year that a rookie can make an immediate fantasy impact, so don’t discount Browers to have big-time success in year one. He certainly looks the part of an elite tight end.
Another rookie with a good chance to start has the second easiest schedule for tight ends. Panthers tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders will compete with Tommy Tremble to start, but should emerge and be the top pass-catching tight end. He is looking like a good late-round gamble for fantasy teams.
The Vikings, Packers and Titans round out the top-five most favorable schedules for tight ends. T.J. Hockenson would be looking like a great pick if he wasn’t returning from a major injury. He is no sure thing to play early in the year. But once he is healthy, he could help fantasy teams in a big way once again.
Green Bay is likely to have Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft split a lot of the work at tight end, hurting both their value. They could produce some big games along the way, though, making them decent No. 2 fantasy tight ends this season. Both produced well in an expanded role last year.
Lastly, Chin Okonkwo didn’t quite have the breakout season many hoped last year, but he wasn’t bad by any means. Maybe he gets a few more chances this year and has some bigger games along the way with this favorable schedule. He is another decent tight end to grab as your backup.
The teams that top the list for toughest fantasy tight end schedules are teams that haven’t really utilized the tight end much in recent seasons. The Bengals have the toughest schedule followed bye the Dolphins. Mike Gesicki is the starter for the Bengals, but probably isn’t worth the risk with this schedule and the Bengals recent track record with tight ends.
Miami uses their tight ends to block more than anything in their offense. They have the occasional big game, but Jonnu Smith is going to be a risky weekly fantasy play. He would have looked much better landing with a different team.
There are a couple big-time fantasy tight ends that have unfavorable schedules. Dallas Goedert has the third toughest schedule. Goedert can be a little hit or miss to begin with in this offense, so this schedule gives him a little more concern. You might want to pass on him come draft day and go with another elite tight end with a better schedule and more consistency.
Dalton Schultz is the other elite tight end with a top-five unfavorable schedule. Schultz had a big first season with the Texans, becoming a favorite target of C.J. Stroud. He should get the targets this year. But he has a challenging schedule and more to compete with for targets, so his consistency might be a little off this year compared to last.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy tight ends. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the tight ends with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big-money contests.
| TE PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | Atlanta Falcons | 175 |
| 2. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 182.37 |
| 3. | Philadelphia Eagles | 184.73 |
| 4. | Arizona Cardinals | 187.67 |
| 5. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 187.77 |
| 6. | New England Patriots | 189.83 |
| 7. | Miami Dolphins | 190.37 |
| 8. | New Orleans Saints | 191.3 |
| 9. | Los Angeles Rams | 192.17 |
| 10. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 192.43 |
| 11. | Cincinnati Bengals | 196.1 |
| 12. | Detroit Lions | 196.12 |
| 13. | Houston Texans | 196.2 |
| 14. | Indianapolis Colts | 198.97 |
| 15. | Buffalo Bills | 199.63 |
| 16. | Kansas City Chiefs | 203.03 |
| 17. | New York Jets | 204.13 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 205.7 |
| 19. | Baltimore Ravens | 205.9 |
| 20. | Green Bay Packers | 207.7 |
| 21. | Chicago Bears | 213.73 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 214.27 |
| 23. | Seattle Seahawks | 214.72 |
| 24. | Cleveland Browns | 214.97 |
| 25. | Dallas Cowboys | 215.8 |
| 26. | Las Vegas Raiders | 219.4 |
| 27. | Washington Commanders | 220.13 |
| 28. | Denver Broncos | 220.8 |
| 29. | Minnesota Vikings | 221.72 |
| 30. | Tennessee Titans | 223.73 |
| 31. | San Francisco 49ers | 225.53 |
| 32. | Los Angeles Chargers | 228.53 |
The Titans and Vikings are the only two teams with the most favorable fantasy schedule for tight ends during the regular season and playoffs. Hockenson is the intriguing one because he might not be fully healthy until late in the season. So while he might not be a huge fantasy factor for the regular season, Hockenson might be a difference maker in the playoffs.
Okonkwo is looking like a player worth grabbing as a No. 2 fantasy tight end, especially if you have an established starter ahead of him. Okonkwo has a high fantasy ceiling for the coming year because of a schedule that could facilitate a breakout season for him.
The Chargers actually have the best fantasy playoff schedule for tight ends. Donald Parham is the likely starter and has some potential in an offense looking for playmakers in the passing game. This could be his best season to date, making him an intriguing late-round gamble.
George Kittle is the biggest name on the list for top-five favorable fantasy tight end playoff schedules. He is going to produce big and could be even better down the stretch with a schedule setup for success.
The Falcons have the most challenging playoff schedule for fantasy tight ends. This is not good news for Kyle Pitts. He is already a polarizing fantasy player, so this schedule won’t do him any favors to get in good graces with more fantasy owners. Many think he could finally turn things around this year with a new coaching staff in place, but nothing is certain with this situation. Pitts could be a boom or bust pick once again.
The Eagles are the only team on both the top five most difficult fantasy schedules for tight ends for the regular season and playoffs. Goedert is looking like a player you might want to let someone else grab come draft day. There are a lot of good, young options at tight end this year. Going with one of those guys over Goedert might be the play on draft day.
Trey McBride is a favorite for many fantasy owners this year for a breakout season. He had a huge finish to last year and is shooting up draft boards. We wouldn’t avoid him come draft day because he has the fourth toughest fantasy playoff schedule. It is a little bit of a concern, but not a huge red flag for the talented tight end. Maybe just prepare for his numbers to dip a tad during the playoffs.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
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From RotoBaller
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Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. caught just four of his eight targets for 31 yards in the team's loss to the Houston Texans. Pittman saw the most targets and snaps out of all Colts pass-catchers, but was unable to turn it into a productive fantasy day. Pittman remains the No. 1 option for Richardson and the Colts passing attack, and fantasy managers can include him as a WR2 in lineups in the team's Week 2 contest against the Green Bay Packers.
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From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce was the surprise name of Sunday afternoon, grabbing all three of his targets for 125 yards and a touchdown in the team's loss to the Houston Texans. QB Anthony Richardson connected with Pierce on some big plays, including a 60-yard touchdown pass in the first quarter and a 57-yard pass in the fourth quarter. Pierce also saw favorable playing time in Josh Downs' (ankle) absence, playing 84% of snaps, only behind Michael Pittman Jr in the WR group. Richardson's big arm makes all Colts pass-catchers a potential homerun option, and Pierce was the beneficiary of that on Sunday. It's unclear how sustainable Pierce's production may be moving forward, but he does make for an interesting waiver wire target this week. Fantasy managers can likely leave Pierce out of lineups in Week 2 in the Colts contest against the Green Bay Packers, but can revisit his status in Week 3 if he can follow up this week's performance.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor ran the ball 16 times for 48 yards and a touchdown in the team's loss to the Houston Texans. Taylor was not involved in the receiving game, getting zero targets through the air. Taylor struggled to breakthrough at just three yards a carry, but did receive the full workload as he was the only running back to see any carries. QB Anthony Richardson led the way on the ground for the Colts, rushing for 56 yards and a touchdown on six attempts. While it is encouraging to see Taylor get high-end usage, his inefficiency and lack of receiving work paired with Richardson's rushing upside did limit him in the contest. Taylor will look to bounce back next week when the Colts take on the Packers, a team that let Saquon Barkley rush for over 100 yards and three touchdowns in their Week 1 matchup. Fantasy managers can start Taylor with confidence in next week's matchup as an RB1 hopeful.
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From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos didn't win in Week 1 on the road at Lumen Field against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, but there defense certainly played better than their offense. Denver's defense/special teams finished as a top-10 fantasy through Sunday night in the 26-20 defeat. They got to quarterback Geno Smith two times, picked him off once, created two safeties and recovered a fumble on a muffed punt. The Broncos' revamped defensive line allowed 146 rushing yards on 33 attempts for a 4.4 yard-per-carry average. Through the air, they limited Smith to 158 passing yards to allow just over 300 yards total in a tough road game to kick off the regular season. Denver's D/ST will remain on waiver wires in most leagues, but they could be worth streaming consideration in deeper leagues in a Week 2 matchup at home against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that could already have QB controversy.
From RotoBaller
The good news for Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton in the team's 26-20 Week 1 loss to the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field on Sunday was that he led the team with 12 targets. However, Sutton could only connect with rookie first-round quarterback Bo Nix four times for just 38 receiving yards in a day in which Nix looked a bit overmatched in his NFL debut against a fired-up defense in a hostile environment. The 28-year-old Sutton is certainly going to have ups and downs in 2024 while working with a rookie signal-caller. It's clear that Nix is going to target Sutton plenty as the WR1 in Denver, but Sutton's fantasy managers couldn't have been thrilled with rookie Devaughn Vele drawing eight targets of his own in his NFL debut. The Pittsburgh Steelers won't pose a much easier matchup in Week 2, where Sutton will set up as a touchdown-dependent WR4/flex.
From RotoBaller
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From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos offense could not consistently move the football in the Week 1 loss to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday at Lumen Field, but Lutz was still able to have a strong fantasy day thanks to the Broncos offense not being able to capitalize on good field position throughout the day. Lutz finished the day a perfect 3-for-3 on his field-goal tries, with a long of 45 yards. He also hit his only extra point to finish as a top-10 fantasy kicker in the games through Sunday night. Lutz's other two field goals were good from 30 and 35 yards out. It was a nice first game of the 2024 season for the 30-year-old booter, but the Broncos offense under rookie first-round quarterback Bo Nix is going to need to show improvement for Lutz to be considered an option as a streaming fantasy kicker in standard-sized 12-team leagues.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos rookie wide receiver Devaughn Vele made a statement in his NFL debut on Sunday in Week 1 against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. Vele didn't have a banner day by any means with just 39 receiving yards, but his eight receptions (on eight targets) surprisingly led the team on a day in which the Broncos offense couldn't really move the ball at all consistently in rookie first-round quarterback Bo Nix's NFL debut. Vele caught all eight of the balls thrown his way in this one and was tied for second in targets with Josh Reynolds, behind Courtland Sutton's 12. Vele, a seventh round pick this year, wasn't targeted very far beyond the line of scrimmage with his eight receptions, but just that fact that he commanded that much attention from Nix is notable. The 26-year-old seems to have developed some good chemistry with his QB and is worth a look in deeper fantasy leagues as a waiver pickup.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Bryce Hall (leg) was carted off the field in an air cast during Sunday's game against the Washington Commanders. He has been diagnosed with a dislocated right ankle and fractured fibula. It's a crushing blow for the Buccaneers, their secondary, and Hall. The 26-year-old is likely headed for an extended absence, and there's even a possibility that the Buccaneers could shut him down for the rest of the season. Hall doesn't have a very lengthy injury history, but he did suffer a season-ending ankle injury during his final collegiate campaign in 2019. The Buccaneers suddenly find themselves incredibly shorthanded at cornerback with Hall sidelined, Zyon McCollum (head) concussed, and Josh Hayes (ankle) at risk of missing time.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos wide receiver Josh Reynolds had a positive debut with the Broncos in their Week 1 loss on the road at Lumen Field against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday by a score of 26-20. Nobody in the Broncos offense really had a great game, but Reynolds caught five of his eight targets for a team-high 45 yards receiving. His eight targets were tied with rookie Devaughn Vele and were second on the team behind Courtland Sutton's 12. Nothing about Denver's offense under rookie first-round quarterback Bo Nix was really that impressive, and the young signal-caller spread the ball around, which is mostly bad news for all of Denver's pass-catchers. For now, Reynolds should remain on the waiver wire in standard-sized 12-team leagues as he battles for targets as the WR2 in Denver with Vele, Marvin Mims Jr. and Lil'Jordan Humphrey.
From RotoBaller
The Cleveland Browns fear that tight end David Njoku (ankle) suffered a high-ankle sprain during Sunday's loss to the Dallas Cowboys. The 28-year-old had caught four of five targets for 44 yards prior to his departure. Cleveland suffered a brutal loss at the hands of the Cowboys, so this latest news about Njoku adds insult to injury. Assuming this initial diagnosis is confirmed, Njoku will be looking at an extended absence (typically a month or more) followed by a significant performance dip once he returns. Until he gets back on the field, Jordan Akins will operate as the Browns' top tight end. He remains off the fantasy radar for the time being.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Broncos quarterback Bo Nix completed 26-of-42 passes for 138 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions in a season-opening loss at Seattle. Dynasty Analysis: Nix actually led the Broncos in rushing with 35 yards and a touchdown but he really struggled, making a few other ill-advised throws that also could have been picked off. Nix looked like a typical rookie in his first NFL start, so there's no need to panic. Still, he should be firmly on dynasty benches until we see him string a few good games together.
Dynasty | Broncos running back Javonte Williams had 23 rushing yards on eight carries, while catching one pass for no gain in Denver's opening day loss at Seattle. Dynasty Analysis: Yuck. Williams was out-carried by Jaleel McLaughlin 10-8, though neither of them looked particularly effective on the day. It's way too early to throw in the towel on Williams but this is a red flag after his disastrous 2023 season. Williams belongs on fantasy benches until Bo Nix can do enough to keep defenses honest as this Denver offense looks anemic at the moment.
Dynasty | Seattle receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had two catches for 19 yards in Seattle's win against Denver. Dynasty Analysis: Sigh. Smith-Njigba is one of the most popular breakout candidates this year but today's game was eerily similar to many from last year. There's a long runway for JSN to make some progress but this wasn't what dynasty managers hoping for a year two breakout were expecting today. JSN should stay on fantasy benches until we see some positive signs moving forward.
Dynasty | Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield completed 24-of-30 passes for 289 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in Tampa Bay's opening day win over Washington. Dynasty Analysis: Mayfield has had some serious ups and downs in his career but he sure has found a home in Tampa Bay. Fresh off signing a new contract, Mayfield shows he was worth the money (and more) in this one today as he routinely placed the ball wherever it needed to be, hitting seven different receivers on the day. While not a sure-fire "set it and forget it" option quite yet, Mayfield is looking like no worse than a high-end QB2 next week and possibly beyond this season.
