Moneyball | RealTime Fantasy Sports

TE Strength of Schedule

Tue Jun 11 11:11am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Bowers could have big year one

Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the tight end position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to tight ends last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the tight ends with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the tight ends that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

	TE SOS
1.	Cincinnati Bengals	186.39
2.	Miami Dolphins	193.98
3.	Philadelphia Eagles	196.38
4.	Washington Commanders	197.75
5.	Houston Texans	198.15
6.	Pittsburgh Steelers	199.18
7.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	199.68
8.	New York Giants	201
9.	Dallas Cowboys	201.18
10.	Los Angeles Rams	201.38
11.	Buffalo Bills	201.39
12.	Chicago Bears	201.66
13.	Arizona Cardinals	201.76
14.	New York Jets	202.56
15.	Jacksonville Jaguars	202.86
16.	Baltimore Ravens	203.04
17.	Denver Broncos	203.95
18.	Los Angeles Chargers	204.02
19.	Atlanta Falcons	204.25
20.	Cleveland Browns	204.59
21.	New Orleans Saints	205.62
22.	Seattle Seahawks	205.73
23.	San Francisco 49ers	206.80
24.	Indianapolis Colts	206.89
25.	Detroit Lions	207.92
26.	New England Patriots	208.23
27.	Kansas City Chiefs	210.92
28.	Tennessee Titans	211.44
29.	Green Bay Packers	212.07
30.	Minnesota Vikings	212.23
31.	Carolina Panthers	213.66
32.	Las Vegas Raiders	213.81

A rookie led fantasy tight ends in scoring last year and the top rated rookie tight end this year gets the easiest fantasy schedule for tight end. Brock Browers and the Raiders have the most favorable schedule for tight ends. Sam LaPorta showed last year that a rookie can make an immediate fantasy impact, so don’t discount Browers to have big-time success in year one. He certainly looks the part of an elite tight end.

Another rookie with a good chance to start has the second easiest schedule for tight ends. Panthers tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders will compete with Tommy Tremble to start, but should emerge and be the top pass-catching tight end. He is looking like a good late-round gamble for fantasy teams.

The Vikings, Packers and Titans round out the top-five most favorable schedules for tight ends. T.J. Hockenson would be looking like a great pick if he wasn’t returning from a major injury. He is no sure thing to play early in the year. But once he is healthy, he could help fantasy teams in a big way once again.

Green Bay is likely to have Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft split a lot of the work at tight end, hurting both their value. They could produce some big games along the way, though, making them decent No. 2 fantasy tight ends this season. Both produced well in an expanded role last year.

Lastly, Chin Okonkwo didn’t quite have the breakout season many hoped last year, but he wasn’t bad by any means. Maybe he gets a few more chances this year and has some bigger games along the way with this favorable schedule. He is another decent tight end to grab as your backup.

The teams that top the list for toughest fantasy tight end schedules are teams that haven’t really utilized the tight end much in recent seasons. The Bengals have the toughest schedule followed bye the Dolphins. Mike Gesicki is the starter for the Bengals, but probably isn’t worth the risk with this schedule and the Bengals recent track record with tight ends.

Miami uses their tight ends to block more than anything in their offense. They have the occasional big game, but Jonnu Smith is going to be a risky weekly fantasy play. He would have looked much better landing with a different team.

There are a couple big-time fantasy tight ends that have unfavorable schedules. Dallas Goedert has the third toughest schedule. Goedert can be a little hit or miss to begin with in this offense, so this schedule gives him a little more concern. You might want to pass on him come draft day and go with another elite tight end with a better schedule and more consistency.

Dalton Schultz is the other elite tight end with a top-five unfavorable schedule. Schultz had a big first season with the Texans, becoming a favorite target of C.J. Stroud. He should get the targets this year. But he has a challenging schedule and more to compete with for targets, so his consistency might be a little off this year compared to last.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy tight ends. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the tight ends with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big-money contests.

	TE PLAYOFF SOS
1.	Atlanta Falcons	175
2.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	182.37
3.	Philadelphia Eagles	184.73
4.	Arizona Cardinals	187.67
5.	Jacksonville Jaguars	187.77
6.	New England Patriots	189.83
7.	Miami Dolphins	190.37
8.	New Orleans Saints	191.3
9.	Los Angeles Rams	192.17
10.	Pittsburgh Steelers	192.43
11.	Cincinnati Bengals	196.1
12.	Detroit Lions	196.12
13.	Houston Texans	196.2
14.	Indianapolis Colts	198.97
15.	Buffalo Bills	199.63
16.	Kansas City Chiefs	203.03
17.	New York Jets	204.13
18.	Carolina Panthers	205.7
19.	Baltimore Ravens	205.9
20.	Green Bay Packers	207.7
21.	Chicago Bears	213.73
22.	New York Giants	214.27
23.	Seattle Seahawks	214.72
24.	Cleveland Browns	214.97
25.	Dallas Cowboys	215.8
26.	Las Vegas Raiders	219.4
27.	Washington Commanders	220.13
28.	Denver Broncos	220.8
29.	Minnesota Vikings	221.72
30.	Tennessee Titans	223.73
31.	San Francisco 49ers	225.53
32.	Los Angeles Chargers	228.53

The Titans and Vikings are the only two teams with the most favorable fantasy schedule for tight ends during the regular season and playoffs. Hockenson is the intriguing one because he might not be fully healthy until late in the season. So while he might not be a huge fantasy factor for the regular season, Hockenson might be a difference maker in the playoffs.

Okonkwo is looking like a player worth grabbing as a No. 2 fantasy tight end, especially if you have an established starter ahead of him. Okonkwo has a high fantasy ceiling for the coming year because of a schedule that could facilitate a breakout season for him.

The Chargers actually have the best fantasy playoff schedule for tight ends. Donald Parham is the likely starter and has some potential in an offense looking for playmakers in the passing game. This could be his best season to date, making him an intriguing late-round gamble.

George Kittle is the biggest name on the list for top-five favorable fantasy tight end playoff schedules. He is going to produce big and could be even better down the stretch with a schedule setup for success.

The Falcons have the most challenging playoff schedule for fantasy tight ends. This is not good news for Kyle Pitts. He is already a polarizing fantasy player, so this schedule won’t do him any favors to get in good graces with more fantasy owners. Many think he could finally turn things around this year with a new coaching staff in place, but nothing is certain with this situation. Pitts could be a boom or bust pick once again.

The Eagles are the only team on both the top five most difficult fantasy schedules for tight ends for the regular season and playoffs. Goedert is looking like a player you might want to let someone else grab come draft day. There are a lot of good, young options at tight end this year. Going with one of those guys over Goedert might be the play on draft day.

Trey McBride is a favorite for many fantasy owners this year for a breakout season. He had a huge finish to last year and is shooting up draft boards. We wouldn’t avoid him come draft day because he has the fourth toughest fantasy playoff schedule. It is a little bit of a concern, but not a huge red flag for the talented tight end. Maybe just prepare for his numbers to dip a tad during the playoffs.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

TE Strength of Schedule

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