Tue Jun 11 11:11am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Bowers could have big year one
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the tight end position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to tight ends last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the tight ends with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the tight ends that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
TE SOS | ||
1. | Cincinnati Bengals | 186.39 |
2. | Miami Dolphins | 193.98 |
3. | Philadelphia Eagles | 196.38 |
4. | Washington Commanders | 197.75 |
5. | Houston Texans | 198.15 |
6. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 199.18 |
7. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 199.68 |
8. | New York Giants | 201 |
9. | Dallas Cowboys | 201.18 |
10. | Los Angeles Rams | 201.38 |
11. | Buffalo Bills | 201.39 |
12. | Chicago Bears | 201.66 |
13. | Arizona Cardinals | 201.76 |
14. | New York Jets | 202.56 |
15. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 202.86 |
16. | Baltimore Ravens | 203.04 |
17. | Denver Broncos | 203.95 |
18. | Los Angeles Chargers | 204.02 |
19. | Atlanta Falcons | 204.25 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 204.59 |
21. | New Orleans Saints | 205.62 |
22. | Seattle Seahawks | 205.73 |
23. | San Francisco 49ers | 206.80 |
24. | Indianapolis Colts | 206.89 |
25. | Detroit Lions | 207.92 |
26. | New England Patriots | 208.23 |
27. | Kansas City Chiefs | 210.92 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 211.44 |
29. | Green Bay Packers | 212.07 |
30. | Minnesota Vikings | 212.23 |
31. | Carolina Panthers | 213.66 |
32. | Las Vegas Raiders | 213.81 |
A rookie led fantasy tight ends in scoring last year and the top rated rookie tight end this year gets the easiest fantasy schedule for tight end. Brock Browers and the Raiders have the most favorable schedule for tight ends. Sam LaPorta showed last year that a rookie can make an immediate fantasy impact, so don’t discount Browers to have big-time success in year one. He certainly looks the part of an elite tight end.
Another rookie with a good chance to start has the second easiest schedule for tight ends. Panthers tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders will compete with Tommy Tremble to start, but should emerge and be the top pass-catching tight end. He is looking like a good late-round gamble for fantasy teams.
The Vikings, Packers and Titans round out the top-five most favorable schedules for tight ends. T.J. Hockenson would be looking like a great pick if he wasn’t returning from a major injury. He is no sure thing to play early in the year. But once he is healthy, he could help fantasy teams in a big way once again.
Green Bay is likely to have Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft split a lot of the work at tight end, hurting both their value. They could produce some big games along the way, though, making them decent No. 2 fantasy tight ends this season. Both produced well in an expanded role last year.
Lastly, Chin Okonkwo didn’t quite have the breakout season many hoped last year, but he wasn’t bad by any means. Maybe he gets a few more chances this year and has some bigger games along the way with this favorable schedule. He is another decent tight end to grab as your backup.
The teams that top the list for toughest fantasy tight end schedules are teams that haven’t really utilized the tight end much in recent seasons. The Bengals have the toughest schedule followed bye the Dolphins. Mike Gesicki is the starter for the Bengals, but probably isn’t worth the risk with this schedule and the Bengals recent track record with tight ends.
Miami uses their tight ends to block more than anything in their offense. They have the occasional big game, but Jonnu Smith is going to be a risky weekly fantasy play. He would have looked much better landing with a different team.
There are a couple big-time fantasy tight ends that have unfavorable schedules. Dallas Goedert has the third toughest schedule. Goedert can be a little hit or miss to begin with in this offense, so this schedule gives him a little more concern. You might want to pass on him come draft day and go with another elite tight end with a better schedule and more consistency.
Dalton Schultz is the other elite tight end with a top-five unfavorable schedule. Schultz had a big first season with the Texans, becoming a favorite target of C.J. Stroud. He should get the targets this year. But he has a challenging schedule and more to compete with for targets, so his consistency might be a little off this year compared to last.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy tight ends. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the tight ends with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big-money contests.
TE PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | Atlanta Falcons | 175 |
2. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 182.37 |
3. | Philadelphia Eagles | 184.73 |
4. | Arizona Cardinals | 187.67 |
5. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 187.77 |
6. | New England Patriots | 189.83 |
7. | Miami Dolphins | 190.37 |
8. | New Orleans Saints | 191.3 |
9. | Los Angeles Rams | 192.17 |
10. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 192.43 |
11. | Cincinnati Bengals | 196.1 |
12. | Detroit Lions | 196.12 |
13. | Houston Texans | 196.2 |
14. | Indianapolis Colts | 198.97 |
15. | Buffalo Bills | 199.63 |
16. | Kansas City Chiefs | 203.03 |
17. | New York Jets | 204.13 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 205.7 |
19. | Baltimore Ravens | 205.9 |
20. | Green Bay Packers | 207.7 |
21. | Chicago Bears | 213.73 |
22. | New York Giants | 214.27 |
23. | Seattle Seahawks | 214.72 |
24. | Cleveland Browns | 214.97 |
25. | Dallas Cowboys | 215.8 |
26. | Las Vegas Raiders | 219.4 |
27. | Washington Commanders | 220.13 |
28. | Denver Broncos | 220.8 |
29. | Minnesota Vikings | 221.72 |
30. | Tennessee Titans | 223.73 |
31. | San Francisco 49ers | 225.53 |
32. | Los Angeles Chargers | 228.53 |
The Titans and Vikings are the only two teams with the most favorable fantasy schedule for tight ends during the regular season and playoffs. Hockenson is the intriguing one because he might not be fully healthy until late in the season. So while he might not be a huge fantasy factor for the regular season, Hockenson might be a difference maker in the playoffs.
Okonkwo is looking like a player worth grabbing as a No. 2 fantasy tight end, especially if you have an established starter ahead of him. Okonkwo has a high fantasy ceiling for the coming year because of a schedule that could facilitate a breakout season for him.
The Chargers actually have the best fantasy playoff schedule for tight ends. Donald Parham is the likely starter and has some potential in an offense looking for playmakers in the passing game. This could be his best season to date, making him an intriguing late-round gamble.
George Kittle is the biggest name on the list for top-five favorable fantasy tight end playoff schedules. He is going to produce big and could be even better down the stretch with a schedule setup for success.
The Falcons have the most challenging playoff schedule for fantasy tight ends. This is not good news for Kyle Pitts. He is already a polarizing fantasy player, so this schedule won’t do him any favors to get in good graces with more fantasy owners. Many think he could finally turn things around this year with a new coaching staff in place, but nothing is certain with this situation. Pitts could be a boom or bust pick once again.
The Eagles are the only team on both the top five most difficult fantasy schedules for tight ends for the regular season and playoffs. Goedert is looking like a player you might want to let someone else grab come draft day. There are a lot of good, young options at tight end this year. Going with one of those guys over Goedert might be the play on draft day.
Trey McBride is a favorite for many fantasy owners this year for a breakout season. He had a huge finish to last year and is shooting up draft boards. We wouldn’t avoid him come draft day because he has the fourth toughest fantasy playoff schedule. It is a little bit of a concern, but not a huge red flag for the talented tight end. Maybe just prepare for his numbers to dip a tad during the playoffs.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 2
Dynasty | Chargers rookie Ladd McConkey had two catches for 26 yards in the Chargers blowout win against the Panthers. Dynasty Analysis: Los Angeles got more than enough from JK Dobbins and Quentin Johnston in this one as McConkey was held in check. There should be better days ahead but McConkey willl need to string a few good games together to maintain his role after Johnston had a two-touchdown day and led the team in targets. McConkey's dynasty value is intact but he'll be a tough start moving forward.
Dynasty | Panthers receiver Diontae Johnson had just three catches for 15 yards in the Panthers blowout loss to the Chargers. Dynasty Analysis: Johnson now has just five catches for 34 scoreless yards in his first two games in Carolina. It's hardly his fault as Bryce Young has done virtually nothing so far this season. At this point, Johnson is going to be a "must-sit" until we see something from an offense that looks as bad as any we've seen in years to start this season.
Dynasty | 49ers running back Jordan Mason had 100 yards rushing and a touchdown in San Francisco's surprising loss at Minnesota. Dynasty Analysis: He added one catch for four yards. While Mason is hardly the same caliber of receiver Christian McCaffrey is, the offense seems very well-suited for his rushing style. His weekly ceiling may be capped moving forward if he doesn't get more targets. However, Mason has proven to be good enough to be a weekly starter, whether that's as a RB1 or RB2 moving forward.
Dynasty | Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold completed 17-of-26 passes for 268 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in the Vikings win against San Francisco. Dynasty Analysis: Darnold has had a dream start to the year as he's led Minnesota to 51 points and two wins to start the season. While Darnold isn't putting up video game numbers, he's making solid decisions and taking care of the football. Today's game was extremely promising as he held strong against one of the league's toughest defenses. He could have had an even bigger game had Aaron Jones not fumbled a "would be" touchdown in the second half at the goal line. Darnold is going to be in consideration in Superflex leagues moving forward and should be rostered everywhere.
Dynasty | Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson had four catches for 133 yards and a touchdown in Minnesota's win over the 49ers. Dynasty Analysis: Jefferson's day was highlighted by a 97-yard touchdown reception from a rejuvenated Sam Darnold. The bigger story could be the fact Jefferson left the game late with a quad injury. We'll wait and see just what the extent of the injury is but it's also clear Jefferson can maintain his WR1 status this year with or without Kirk Cousins after the second big day from Darnold.
Dynasty | Vikings running back Ty Chandler had 82 yards on just ten carries in the Vikings win over San Francisco. Dynasty Analysis: More importantly, Chandler had ten carries and Aaron Jones had nine. While this is just one game, it seems Minnesota may be heading more towards a time-share at this point between the two running backs. Chandler is a must-own in dynasty leagues as we monitor his touches very closely over the next couple of weeks.
Dynasty | Browns running back D'Onta Foreman had 42 yards on 14 carries in Cleveland's win over Jacksonville. Dynasty Analysis: More importantly, Foreman's 15 touches (he had one catch for nine yards) were more than the eight of Jerome Ford. Quite honestly, neither running back was very impressive on the day and the fact both were used this much may indeed make them unplayable going forward as the Cleveland offense has looked pretty inept so far this season. We'll continue to monitor the situation but neither back is going to be a recommended play until one or the other truly emerges.
Dynasty | Jags rookie Brian Thomas had two catches for 94 yards in Jacksonville's loss against Cleveland. Dynasty Analysis: Thomas only had four targets on the day but made the most of them with a 66-yard catch. Trevor Lawrence seems to be spreading the ball around a lot but Thomas also looks like the most explosive receiver on the team. While he should remain on benches, Thomas has looked the part thus far in his rookie season and his potential seems to have justified his lofty rookie draft ranking thus far.
Dynasty | Raiders tight end Brock Bowers had nine catches for 98 yards in the Raiders win over the Ravens. Dynasty Analysis: Bowers has done nothing to make anyone believe he's not the future at the position in dynasty leagues thus far after posting a whopping 15 catches in his first two games. While dynasty owners may be frustrating at him not finding the end zone yet, that's just a case of greed. Bowers is here to stay and looks like a "set it and forget it" option already in his young career.
Dynasty | Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely had just two catches for 26 yards in Baltimore's loss to Las Vegas. Dynasty Analysis: This isn't a huge surprise as Baltimore's passing offense still runs through Zay Flowers and they tend to run the ball as much as possible. Still, this is a clear letdown after last week's massive explosion. The simple fact is the Ravens now have two very capable tight ends as Mark Andrews (4/51/0) and Likely are making a duo that looks great in reality but frustrating in dynasty leagues. Likely's ascension up the rankings will halt after this one and he's going to be a tough start moving forward until we see another solid outing.
Dynasty | Jayden Daniels completed 23-of-29 passes for 226 yards, while adding 44 rushing yards in the Commanders win over the Giants. Dynasty Analysis: Daniels wasn't able to produce any touchdowns on the day but one thing is very clear after two weeks - Daniels has the "it" factor. Routinely making something out of nothing, Daniels simply willed the team to a win, his first as a starter in the NFL. There are going to be some better days statistically moving forward but it seems Washington has truly found their quarterback of the future. The buying window on Daniels is creeping shut.
Dynasty | Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers had ten catches for 127 yards and a touchdown in the Giants loss against Washington. Dynasty Analysis: Even more impressive, Nabers had a whopping 18 (!) of the 28 targets from Daniel Jones. While this target share is impossible to maintain, it's clear going to Nabers is the best bet for the Giants to have any success on offense this season and they're making every effort to give him the ball. His status as the #2 rookie is cemented and he's a must-start, top-15 receiver moving forward this season.
Dynasty | Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 12 catches for 117 yards in Seattle's road win over New England. Dynasty Analysis: JSN was held in check last week but today was a different story as Geno Smith looked his way a whopping 16 times. Smith-Njigba looks to be taking over the WR2 spot from Tyler Lockett this season and could be well on his way to a second year breakout. The dynasty arrow is clearly pointing up for JSN and he's going to be a solid WR3 moving forward.
Dynasty | Patriots rookie Ja'Lynn Polk had two catches for 12 yards and his first career touchdown in a loss against Seattle. Dynasty Analysis: Polk scored and that's the good news. The bad news is he now has just three catches for 18 yards on the season. This is simply an indictment on an offense that has done next to nothing to start the year and is simply going as far as running back Rhamondre Stevenson can take them. Polk's dynasty value is safe but he needs to remain on dynasty benches for the time being.
Dynasty | Jets rookie running back Braelon Allen had 33 rushing yards, two catches, 23 receiving yards and two touchdown in New York's win against Tennessee. Dynasty Analysis: The bad news is Allen was still out-touched 21-9 by Breece Hall. There is no running back controversy here as Hall is the unquestioned bellcow for the Jets. However, it's clear Allen has talent and if Hall was to ever miss time, Allen could be in line for a RB1 stretch. Allen remains a solid hold in dynasty leagues moving forward and a solid low-cost trade target for forward-thinking managers.
Dynasty | Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson completed 17-of-34 passes for 204 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions in a loss against Green Bay. Dynasty Analysis: One of the interceptions was on a last second hail mary, so that can hardly count against him. Still, Richardson wasn't sharp and his fantasy day couldn't be salvaged, even with his 37 rushing yards. There is work to do here and while Richardson seems healthy, we need to see more consistency before making him a lineup lock moving forward - such is life in the NFL for young quarterbacks.
Dynasty | Packers quarterback Malik Willis completed 12-of-14 passes for 122 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions in a win against Indianapolis. Dynasty Analysis: Willis also added 41 rushing yards on the day. The game plan for Green Bay is clear with Willis under center - they're going to run the ball with Josh Jacobs and have Willis manage football games. While that may seem like a buzzkill for dynasty managers, Willis looked surprisingly in control all day and while nobody is going to forget about Jordan Love, the trade Green Bay made for him looks like a genius move at this point. Willis belongs on dynasty rosters.
Dynasty | Packers receiver Dontayvion Wicks had three catches for 26 yards and a touchdown in Green Bay's win against the Colts. Dynasty Analysis: The stat line isn't going to "wow" anyone but this was a big step up from last week when Wicks failed to catch a single pass. After starring all preseason, this was a much needed game from Wicks, who has again reiterated he should be on dynasty rosters - a thought that was in question after last week. He remains a hold as the Packers attempt to survive without Jordan Love.
Dynasty | Saints running back Alvin Kamara had 115 rushing yards, two catches, 65 receiving yards, and four total touchdowns in the Saints upset loss at Dallas. Dynasty Analysis: The Saints have now scored 91 points in two games and Kamara's five touchdowns so far this season are just one behind his season total of six last year. To say this is a good development is a total understatement as it looks like Derek Carr is in total control of this offense and the Saints are poised for a serious bounce-back. While it's just a two game sample size, Kamara is looking like his old self and is a perfect target for a contending dynasty team as a productive, yet aging running back.
Dynasty | Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed had four catches for 96 yards and a touchdown in a win against Dallas. Dynasty Analysis: Shaheed was fancied about as a potential breakout player this year and the first two games have given dynasty managers seven catches for 169 yards and two touchdowns already. Shaheed isn't going to overtake Chris Olave (six catches for 92 scoreless yards on the season) as the WR1 in New Orleans but he's looking like a player who needs to be in lineups moving forward. His dynasty arrow is clearly pointing up as well.