ATLFL | RealTime Fantasy Sports

Lineup Prep: Week 7

Wed Oct 16 8:54am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Mayfield has become must start

Hopefully, this is a trend and not a fluke, but it sure is fun seeing impactful trades happen in the NFL. This makes things a lot more interesting. And this usually isn’t a thing in the middle of an NFL season. Here is to hoping this becomes the norm going forward.

Now for my random thoughts. . . . .

Let’s talk about these trades and what it means for fantasy owners. I will look at the Davante Adams trade first. This is a big positive for the fantasy value of both Adams and Aaron Rodgers. They have a clear history together and have posted huge numbers in the past. I expect these two to have a rapport right away and Adams to produce like an elite No. 1 fantasy receiver. Rodgers is also looking better as a fantasy quarterback, getting another top weapon to add to his offense. He already is playing a little better, having 20-plus fantasy points two of four games. Rodgers is looking better and better for fantasy owners.

Now this trade really hurts the value of Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard, though. Wilson will see a dip in targets and no longer be the go-to option in the passing game. Lazard has been serviceable but will be the ultimate boom or bust play going forward.

This trade also has ramifications for the Raiders. Las Vegas has already been without Adams in recent weeks, though, so it should be more of the same for them. Tight end Brock Bowers is likely going to lead this team in receptions this year. Much like Sam LaPorta last year as a rookie, it would not surprise me if Bowers finishes first overall in fantasy tight end scoring. He is looking really good.

The Bills get a huge boost to their passing game, adding Amari Cooper. He finally gives Josh Allen a top receiver. Look for Allen to target him early and often. This also is a big positive for Cooper, moving to a much, much, much better offense. His fantasy stock is going up. Allen should see a bump as well. Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku should be the biggest benefactors from the Cooper departure. I think Njoku is going to get a ton of weekly targets going forward.

I always tell people not to panic about certain players but if I’m a Travis Etienne owner, I am panicking. He had an awful game last week and hasn’t been very good most of the year. And backup Tank Bigsby has been the better back of the two most of the season. And now Etienne is battling a hamstring injury, which could give Bigsby more chances to run away with the starter’s job in Jacksonville. Things are trending the wrong way for Etienne right now.

Houston was a surprise last year, sneaking into the playoffs after years of futility. They aren’t sneaking up on anyone this year and still playing very well. This team is 5-1 and sitting near the top of the entire AFC. The thing that has surprised me the most this year is the defense. That side of the ball has really upped their game. This is a lot more complete team that could make a serious run in the playoffs.

I don’t understand how the Browns can keep trotting Deshaun Watson out there as their starting quarterback. He has been a complete disaster since joining the Browns. And things aren’t getting any better for him or the offense. If I’m head coach and likely fighting to keep my job, I make a move to Jameis Winston. He can’t be any worse, right? Plus, this would be a boost to the fantasy value of all the playmakers for the Browns. This needs to happen sooner than later.

I am a little surprised the Steelers are moving on from Justin Fields. I know he hasn’t been great throwing the ball but he is leading the team to wins and making plays with his legs to give the offense life. Fields has five rushing touchdowns his last four games. Russell Wilson is not going to be able to make the type of plays with his legs. Wilson will be a better thrower but I’m not sure he is that big of an upgrade in that area. He has struggled to throw the ball in recent seasons and doesn’t seem to be the same quarterback from earlier in his career. It will be interesting to see if this move to Wilson backfires on the Steelers. I’m not sure I would have done it.

News and Notes: Texans defensive end Mario Edwards has been suspended four games for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy. . . . .The Raiders traded receiver Davante Adams to the Jets for a third-round pick that can become a second-rounder based on performance on Tuesday. Adams reunites with Aaron Rodgers. . . . .Cleveland traded receiver Amari Cooper along with a 2025 sixth-round draft choice to Buffalo in exchange for a 2025 third-round draft choice and a 2026 seventh-round draft choice on Tuesday. Cooper immediately becomes the top receiver in the Bills offense. . . . .The Texans traded running back Cam Akers and a conditional 2026 seventh-round pick to the Vikings for a 2026 sixth-round pick on Tuesday. Akers gives the Vikings some depth at running back with Aaron Jones hurting. . . . .The Bills released wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling on Tuesday. He was expendable after the team traded for Amari Cooper. . . . The Packers signed kicker Brandon McManus on Tuesday. He is expected to take over the kicking duties for the Packers immediately.

HOT PLAYS

Baker Mayfield, QB, Bucs. Believe it or not, Mayfield is second overall in fantasy quarterback scoring right now. He has three games with 30-plus fantasy points and three or more touchdowns four of six games. He has been super consistent in the Bucs offense. At this point, he is a must start for fantasy owners. The numbers don’t lie. And expect him to keep his hot ways this week against a Ravens team that really struggles against the pass. Baltimore is 31st against the pass, allowing 275.7-passing yards per game, and allows the second most fancy points to quarterbacks.

Tony Pollard, RB, Titans. Pollard found the end zone for the second straight game last week and has 15-plus points four of five games. He has played very well for his new team and gets a lot of weekly chances. And now Tyjae Spears is banged up and could miss time, meaning Pollard could be setup for an even bigger workload. That is great news for him this week against the Bills, a team that was shredded by the Jets on the ground last week and allows the second most fantasy points to running backs for the season.

Diontae Johnson, WR, Panthers. Johnson scored his third touchdown of the season last week and has scores three of four games. He looks like a different player with Andy Dalton throwing him passes. Johnson has double-digit targets three of four games as well. Look for him to get another big workload this week against the Commanders. The Panthers are going to have to score some points if they hope to win this one, so look for the passing game to get a workout against a bad secondary. Washington allows the fifth most fantasy points to receivers and was torched by Zay Flowers last week.

Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens. Flowers has two straight 100-yard games. The Ravens might be a run-heavy team but Flowers still gets plenty of looks. He has double-digit targets three of six games. He has six or more receptions four games. Flowers is emerging as that solid No. 1 fantasy receiver in maybe the best offense in football. Look for him to have another big showing this week against the Bucs. Tampa is very good against the run but struggles to stop the pass. The Bucs are 28th overall against the pass and allow the sixth most fantasy points to receivers.

Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions. LaPorta had just a catch last week but it went for a 52-yards touchdown. He is off to a slow start this year but is playing better of late, having 50-plus yards two straight games. The Lions need to get him more involved in the offense, so look for that to start happening this week against the Vikings. This should be a high-scoring game, so get as many players involved as possible, including LaPorta. And Minnesota has struggled to stop the tight end this year, allowing the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends.

COLD PLAYS

Russell Wilson, QB, Steelers. Wilson is getting his shot to start once again, getting inserted into the Steelers starting lineup. That doesn’t mean he belongs in your fantasy lineup, though. His numbers have been really ho-hum in recent seasons. Plus, the Steelers are a run-heavy offense with Justin Fields doing most of his damage as a runner himself. Wilson also has a tough first game against the Jets. New York is second overall against the pass and allows the third fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Packers. Jacobs gets a ton of weekly volume but his numbers haven’t been great. He has fewer than 65-rushing yards three of four games and just one 100-yard rushing game on the season. His fantasy numbers have been pretty ho-hum, especially considering the volume. Things could be tough for him on the ground again this week against a good Texans rush defense. Houston allows the fifth fewest fantasy points to running backs.

Michael Wilson, WR, Cardinals. Marvin Harrison Jr. took a huge hit last week and could miss some time because of a concussion. This leaves Wilson as the top target at receiver. That doesn’t mean he is a sure thing for fantasy owners, though. He did score a touchdown last week but had just two receptions for 21 yards. He has fewer than 40 yards two of three games. We still consider him more of a matchup play and a game against the Chargers is not a good one for him. Los Angeles has one of the best pass defenses in football, allowing the eighth fewest passing yards per game. The Chargers allow the fifth fewest fantasy points to receivers.

Trey Sermon, RB, Colts. Sermon might be starting with Jonathan Taylor out but he is not doing much with his chances. He has 28 carries for just 67 yards his last two games. He is a touchdown-dependent fantasy player in a starting role. And backup Tyler Goodson is playing well with his work and could be cutting into the workload of Sermon even more. We might just stay away from Sermon, even if Taylor misses more games. He isn’t worth the risk despite a favorable matchup against the Dolphins this week.

Darnell Mooney, WR, Falcons. Mooney is becoming a bit of a boom-or-bust fantasy play. He has three games with 14-plus fantasy points and three others with fewer than double-digit points. He had just three catches for 38 yards in a favorable matchup against the Panthers last week. His matchup is tougher this week against a good Seahawks defense. Seattle has been pretty stingy against the pass and allows the 11th fewest fantasy points to receivers.

SLEEPERS

Aidan O’Connell, QB, Raiders. O’Connell had a good first start against a solid Steelers defense last week. He was 27-of-40 for 227 yards and a touchdown. He moved the offense and made some plays down the field despite missing two of his top receivers. Both those guys could be back this week, though, which would be a huge lift for O’Connell. Plus, he has a great matchup against the Rams. The Rams allow the seventh most fantasy points to quarterbacks. O’Connell is a guy to take a chance on if you need quarterback help in Week 7.

Austin Ekeler, RB, Commanders. Ekeler didn’t get much more work in a starting role last week but had 13 total touches for 68 yards. He topped double-digit fantasy points once again. His numbers haven’t been off the charts this year but very consistent, having double-digit fantasy points every single game. You can’t ask for much more. We look for him to have another solid game this week against the Panthers. It might even be his best game of the year. Carolina is a mess right now, allowing the most fantasy points to running backs. The Panthers are 30th overall against the run, allowing 153.5-rushing yards per game.

Demario Douglas, WR, Patriots. Douglas had a career-best 92 yards last week on six receptions. He has nine targets each of his last two games. Douglas has six or more receptions three of four games, emerging as the top receiver for the Patriots And with Drake Maye now running the show, Douglas is looking even better for fantasy owners. He could be a solid weekly play going forward, especially this week against the Jaguars. Jacksonville is another team reeling, ranking dead last against the pass. The Jaguars also allow the second most fantasy points to receivers.

Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers. McConkey has been alright his rookie season. He has double-digit fantasy points two of five games. He has at least four receptions three of five games. It was encouraging to see the Chargers air it out more last week, throwing a season-high 34 passes. This is good news for McConkey and all the Chargers receivers. McConkey played the most snaps of any Chargers receiver last week (63 percent), so he is the guy to play in this offense. The Chargers could throw more again this week against a bad Cardinals secondary. Arizona allows the eighth most fantasy points to receivers and is 22nd overall against the pass.

Dalton Schultz, TE, Texans. With Nico Collins out last week, Schultz had a season-high eight targets. He has four receptions each of his last two games. He still hasn’t reached double-digit fantasy points this year, but look for that to change this week. He can get a lot of targets once again and convert those to more yards. The Packers are 25th against the pass and allow the third most fantasy points to tight ends. Schultz could get a workout in this one.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Lions/Vikings, Texans/Packers, Panthers/Commanders, Ravens/Bucs.

Low Scoring Games: Broncos/Saints, Dolphins/Colts, Jets/Steelers.

Byes: Cowboys, Bears.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 7

The Paur Report