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Week 3 MNF: Jaguars-Bills Preview, Props, Prediction

Mon Sep 23 3:36pm ET
Field Level Media

The Jacksonville Jaguars face a tall task when they attempt to win their first game of the 2024 season on Monday Night Football.

The 0-2 Jaguars travel to Buffalo to take on a 2-0 Bills team that has enjoyed three additional days off since dismantling Miami 31-10 to kick off Week 2. Buffalo is seeking its first 3-0 start since 2020.

ODDS AND TRENDS

The Bills are consensus 5.5-point favorites. That includes at BetRivers, where they have been backed by 69 percent of all spread-line bets and 59 percent of the money. Buffalo's -265 moneyline has been even more popular, drawing 86 and 80 percent of the money, respectively.

The public is expecting a high-scoring affair, with 45.5-point Over/Under seeing the Over backed by 81 percent of the money.

PROP PICK

James Cook Anytime TD (-105): This has been the most popular player prop at the book for Monday night's first game, garnering 2.5 percent of all player-prop money wagered at BetRivers. Cook has three touchdowns this season -- all coming in the Week 2 rout in Miami. It was a breakout performance for Cook, who did not reach the end zone in his final six games last season, including three playoff contests.

KEY STATS

The underdogs have covered the spread each of the past six times these teams have met. Meanwhile, each of the Bills' past four home games have gone over the total points total line.

THE NEWS

The matchup of the two Josh Allens has a different ring to it this season.

In fact, this time there will officially be just one on the field when the Buffalo Bills battle the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday night in Orchard Park, N.Y.

The Bills' quarterback still goes by the name, but the star Jacksonville defender who dominated the 2021 matchup now goes by Josh Hines-Allen. The change was made to honor the maternal side of his family.

Rest assured that Buffalo's Allen won't be confused by the change in identity when the Bills bid for a 3-0 start for the first time since 2020. He knows exactly who to look for on every snap.

"Anytime you get a D-end like that, they present problems," Allen said Thursday of Hines-Allen, who had a career-high 17.5 sacks last season. "The motor that he has, he doesn't let up. He finds ways to continue to get to the quarterback.

"He's one of the premier edge rushes in the league and we have to be aware of him at all times."

Jacksonville upset the Bills 9-6 in 2021 and Hines-Allen was a terror against the man whose name he once shared. He had an interception, recovered a fumble by Allen and notched a sack.

Hines-Allen is 2-0 in the head-to-head matchups with Allen, as the Jaguars also defeated the Bills last season, 25-20 in London.

But the teams have begun the 2024 season going in opposite directions. Allen has thrown three touchdown passes in just 42 throws and the Bills rank third in the NFL in scoring offense at 32.5 points per game.

The offense is clicking despite the offseason trade of receiver Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans. Two other key performers also departed and now play for the Jaguars -- center Mitch Morse and wideout Gabe Davis.

"Two guys that I've spent a lot of time with over the last few years here," Allen said. "Two guys that mean a lot to me, not just football-wise. I consider them real close friends. ... Takes a lot to win in this league, and they were two huge contributors over the last several years."

The Jaguars are looking to avoid their first 0-3 start since losing their first five games under Urban Meyer in 2021. They are also trying to ignite a sagging offense that is tied for 27th in scoring at 15 points per game.

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence received a five-year, $275 million extension in the offseason, but his play has been largely lethargic this year. He is completing just 51 percent of his throws, and he went 14-of-30 passing with four sacks during last Sunday's 18-13 home loss to the Cleveland Browns.

"We can't hit the panic button, but we've got to have some real conversations," Lawrence said. "We've got too good of a team to come out here and perform two weeks in a row like this. I mean, these games are precious and you don't get them back, and we're 0-2 to start the year and it's not going to get any easier. We'd better fix it quick."

INJURY REPORT

Allen (left hand) was a full practice participant on Thursday. The only Bills to sit out were linebacker Terrel Bernard (pectoral) and cornerback Taron Johnson (forearm), two players who will miss the game.

Jaguars tight end Evan Engram (hamstring) didn't practice Thursday. He was injured in pregame warmups prior to the Cleveland game.

THEY SAID IT

"We're down 0-2 right now, everybody's going to count us out," Hines-Allen said. "Playing against a good team -- 2-0 -- we're coming in there with our backs against the wall and coming out fighting. I'm excited about that -- and not (playing) in the cold." --Hines-Allen

PREDICTION

The Jaguars handled the Bills 25-20 last season, but that was at home and when Jacksonville was playing far more consistent football. Cleveland and Miami each have a lone win this season, both against the Jaguars, who have totaled only 30 points through two games. Buffalo faces a tough three-game stretch against Baltimore, Houston and the New York Jets following Monday night, so the Bills will be focused at home to keep pace with the elite in the AFC. The bigger question is whether they'll cover the spread --Bills 27, Jaguars 20

Week 3 MNF: Jaguars-Bills Preview, Props, Prediction

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