Lineup Prep: Championship Games
Wed Jan 25 10:06am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Smith can keep up his hot ways
Let’s hope the games are a little better this weekend. For the most part, the games were’t crazy competitive last weekend like you had hoped. On paper, it sure seems these Championship games will be good, though. Here is to hoping it plays out that way.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
The big story for the Bengals last week was their offensive line. With several starters out, the backups had a tall task to try to contain the Bills defensive line. Well, the Bengals actually dominated the game along the line on both sides of the ball. The backups for the Bengals more than held their own, leading to the dominating win for the Bengals. It seems like the concerns for the line might have been a little overblown. Cincinnati is sure riding a lot of momentum into this game with the Chiefs, making it hard to bet against them.
Brock Purdy looked a little shaky for the first time since taking over as the starter for the 49ers. He made a few bad decisions, including some time management issues at the end of the first half that almost cost his team three points. I am a little worried about him on the road this week against a very good Eagles defense. Maybe he will keep proving everyone wrong, but I think he comes back down to earth a little. I like the Eagles to win and advance to the Super Bowl.
It is good news for Mac Jones getting Bill O’Brien as his offensive coordinator for next season. The two worked together at Alabama, so expect the offense to suit Jones’ talents very well in 2023. Jones could have his best season to date if the Patriots add some more talent at receiver this offseason.
So I haven’t completely given up on Russell Wilson. I think he could be a good buy-low risk next season. He showed some signs of life after Nathaniel Hackett was fired late in the year. The Broncos certainly have a lot of talent offensively, so with the right system in place for Wilson, I think he can still produce. Just something to keep in mind this offseason. You are likely to get Wilson at a really good price after his disastrous first season in Denver.
There is talk that Aaron Rodgers cool be moved this offseason if he decides to play another year. I’m a little intrigued by that. I think a new team with some top options to work with at receiver could rejuvenate Rodgers some. I hate to see him wear something other than a Green Bay uniform, but from a fantasy perspective, a move could be a real positive for his value.
I know the Ravens keep saying they aren’t going to let Lamar Jackson go, but I’m not so sure. It was a really strange finish to his season, looking like both parties might be a little at odds with each other. I’m not completely sold on a return to Baltimore for Jackson. I really think a move to Atlanta would be great. That offense could be something else with Jackson running the show.
News and Notes: The Patriots hired Bill O’Brien to take over their offensive coordinator duties. O’Brien should be a huge upgrade over this past season for the entire Patriots offense.
HOT PLAYS
George Kittle, TE, 49ers. Kittle is the guy that rookie Brock Purdy leans on in the passing game when he is feeling pressured. That really showed last week with Kittle catching five passes for 95 yards. Kittle has at least 12 fantasy points five of six games. He has finished the season really well and should keep it going this week against the Eagles. Kittle can rack up the targets in this one.
Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals. Higgins has been a little quiet in the playoffs, having two straight game with fewer than 40 yards. Don’t give up on him, though, especially if the Chiefs focus on trying to slow Ja’Marr Chase. This could create more favorable matchups for Higgins. Higgins scored a touchdown against the Chiefs in Week 13. Plus, Kansas City allowed the eighth most fantasy points to receiver during the regular season.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles. Smith had six catches last week and has at least six catches four straight games. He has at least five receptions seven straight. Smith is getting a ton of weekly work in the Eagles offense. A.J. Brown is considered the No. 1 receiver for the Eagles, but hasn’t gotten the looks as Smith in recent weeks. It could be more of the same for Smith this week against the 49ers. He matches up well in this one, getting looks in the screen game and on short-yardage routes. San Francisco had all sorts of issues containing CeeDee Lamb last week. And this has been a bit of a trend, allowing the sixth most fantasy points to receivers during the regular season.
COLD PLAYS
Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles. Sanders played well last week, rushing 17 times for 90 yards. He wasn’t much of a help to fantasy teams, though, scoring just nine fantasy points. He didn’t catch a pass in the game, which really hurt his fantasy numbers. He has not reached double-digit fantasy options five straight games. He is a little hard to trust right now, especially this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs during the regular season and ranked second overall against the run.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs. McKinnon has come back down to earth a little after his red-hot play down the stretch. He ran 11 times for just 25 yards last week and didn’t catch a pass in the game. He has less than double-digit fantasy points two straight. McKinnon has the potential for the big game in this offense, but is a little hard to have faith in after his last two. Plus, the Bengals allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to running backs during the regular season.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. Aiyuk had two catches for just 26 yards on four targets last week. He has five or fewer targets three straight. And he has fewer than double-digit fantasy points two of those games. He has enjoyed a fine season but been a little up and down, mainly being down in recent weeks. It would not surprise to see him down again this week against the Eagles. Philadelphia is first overall against the pass this year, allowing just 179.8-passing yards per game.
SLEEPERS
Tyler Boyd, WR, Bengals. Boyd has been inconsistent this year as the Bengals as their No. 3 receiver, but it isn’t for a lack of playing time. He is on the field a lot, so the chances are always there for a big game from Boyd in this explosive passing game. It would not surprise if this was a week for Boyd to produce well. He had four catches for 60 yards against the Chiefs earlier in the year. And Kansas City has struggled to stop fantasy receivers much of the year, allowing the seventh most fantasy points. Don’t forget about Boyd in this offense.
Elijah Mitchell, RB, 49ers. Mitchell actually led the 49ers in carries last week, rushing 14 times for 51 yards. Christian McCaffrey is battling a calf injury, which could give Mitchell a few more chances. He also has double-digit fantasy points two of three games. The 49ers are going to run a lot in this matchup with the Eagles, so look for Mitchell to produce a solid game, getting double-digit touches.
Marques Valdes-Scantling, WR, Chiefs. Valdes-Scantling had just a catch last week but it was for a touchdown. He is losing snaps to Kadarius Toney but still on a the field a decent amount. He has six or more target two of three games. And he has played at least 50 percent of the snaps three straight. He is a boom or bust play, but more than capable of the big play in this offense. He could break one in this matchup, especially with the Bengals focusing on shutting down Travis Kelce in the passing game.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Bengals/Chiefs.
Low Scoring Games: 49ers/Eagles.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
- Jets QB Aaron Rodgers: 'No restrictions' at OTAs
- Former Giants TE Aaron Thomas dies at 86
- Michael Irvin out at NFL Network
- Bills sign Chase Claypool, Deion Jones, Dawuane Smoot
- Dolphins, Odell Beckham Jr. agree to 1-year deal
- Chargers add wide receiver DJ Chark
- Chiefs decline WR Kadarius Toney's 2025 option
- Cowboys' Dak Prescott won't face charges for alleged assault
- Ravens sign 5 draft picks, including first-rounder Nate Wiggins
- Steelers decline RB Najee Harris' fifth-year option
- Colts guarantee edge rusher Kwity Paye $13.4M, pick up 2025 option
- Packers decline CB Eric Stokes' fifth-year option
- Cowboys decline $22.4M option on QB Trey Lance
- K Joey Slye reaches deal with Patriots
- Steelers' Justin Fields in mix for returning kicks
- Gaints sign veteran defensive back David Long Jr.
- Saints signing former Lions DB Will Harris
- Chiefs TE Travis Kelce 'extremely grateful' for new deal
- Bucs decline option on LB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka
- Broncos won't pick up QB Zach Wilson's option
- Fantasy Six Pack: IDP Expert Rookie Mock Draft – Post-NFL Draft
- Fantasy Six Pack: Dynasty Football Rookie TE Landing Spots
- Fantasy Six Pack: Dynasty Football Rookie WR Landing Spots
- Fantasy Six Pack: Football Football PPR Mock Draft: Post-NFL Draft
The Paur Report
Green Bay Packers rookie safety Kitan Oladapo (toe) said he had surgery on his left big toe recently and is out for the team's offseason workouts. However, he expects to be ready for training camp this summer. Oladapo suffered a stress fracture doing drills on the turf at the NFL combine in February in Indianapolis and powered through more drills at his pro day despite being injured. Along with the 23-year-old, the Packers also took safeties Xavier McKinney and Anthony Johnson in this year's draft to help them shore up their secondary. Oladapo, who hails from Oregon State, will need to get healthy in a hurry if he wants to impress the coaching staff enough in training camp to secure a spot on the regular-season roster.
From RotoBaller
The Seattle Seahawks signed undrafted free-agent linebackers Sunny Anderson, Nelson Ceaser, Easton Gibbs and Rason Williams II, quarterback Chevan Cordeiro, offensive tackle Garret Greenfield, wide receivers Hayden Hatten and Dee Williams, running backs George Holani, Kobe Lewis and TaMerik Williams, cornerbacks Carlton Johnson and Ro Torrence, defensive end DeVere Levelston, center Mike Novitsky and tight end Jack Westover on Friday. Cordeiro, who is out of San Jose State, was the Mountain West Conference's all-time leader in total touchdowns, total yards and completions. Ceaser, from Houston, was a first-team All-Big 12 selection and team captain who led his team with 13.5 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks in 2023. Greenfield was a three-time first-team FCS All-American.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets rookie quarterback Jordan Travis (ankle), who was drafted by the Jets in the fifth round last week, won't take part in offseason workouts but should be cleared for training camp at the end of July, according to head coach Robert Saleh. The Jets took the Florida State star as a developmental prospect who can learn behind Aaron Rodgers and veteran backup Tyrod Taylor. Travis suffered a gruesome, season-ending ankle injury on Nov. 18 and required surgery. He rode a stationary bike on Friday during part of practice. "He's a tremendously talented young man and extremely gifted, especially athletically. He's got a lot of work to do for sure, especially with tying his lower half to his arm and all that good stuff, but he's a gifted athlete," Saleh said. Travis threw for 8,643 yards and 65 touchdowns while finishing his career with 17 straight wins for the Seminoles.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Miami Dolphins have signed wide receiver Odell Beckham, Jr. Dynasty Analysis: Beckham has been flirting with the Dolphins for weeks and now it's official. It's a one-year deal worth $3 million with incentives that can push its max value to $8.25 million. The incentives are likely going to be very tough for OBJ to meet with the likes of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle around. Still, it's another fresh start for Beckham, who hasn't had a 1,000-yard season 2019. He's still a hold in dynasty leagues but expecting a late-career renaissance seems to be asking a little too much at this point.
The New York Jets traded up to the first pick of the third round (No. 65) in the 2024 NFL Draft to select former Western Kentucky wide receiver Malachi Corley. In a recent media availability, Jets general manager Joe Douglas touted the rookie's run-after-catch skills and believes he's a great fit alongside Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams. "He really excels with the ball in his hands. When guys are really good at running after catch in college, it usually translates well in the pros," Douglas said. "If a guy has the ability to make people miss it's because they're really an elusive high-level athlete and if they're wired to compete. Our coaches are going to use that skill to turn him into an elite route runner." Needless to say, the team has high expectations for the 22-year-old -- and for good reason. In his final two collegiate campaigns, he caught 180 passes for 2,277 yards and 22 touchdowns.
From RotoBaller
The Buffalo Bills signed linebacker Deion Jones and defensive lineman Dawuane Smoot on Friday, according to NFL.com. The team moved on from several veterans on both sides of the ball this offseason, so Jones and Smoot could compete for playing time in 2024. Jones, a former second-round pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, earned Pro Bowl honors in 2017, but he hasn't lived up to his breakout campaign. In 109 games with the Falcons, Browns, and Panthers, he has racked up 731 tackles, 12 sacks, five forced fumbles, and 13 interceptions. Smoot, a former Jaguars third-round pick, spent the first seven seasons of his career with Jacksonville and compiled 23.5 sacks through his first 99 games.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh said that there will be no restrictions for quarterback Aaron Rodgers (Achilles) when Phase 3 of the offseason begins in two weeks, which consists of 10 organized team activity practices. "Once phase three hits, we're not anticipating any restrictions from what we can and can't do with him," Saleh said. Meanwhile, rookie QB Jordan Travis (ankle), is expected to be ready for training camp after suffering a devastating injury in November. The 40-year-old Rodgers is coming off a torn left Achilles that he suffered on the first offensive series of the season in 2023. The odds are against him returning to his MVP form with the Jets, but he's not lacking for offensive weapons around him if he can stay healthy in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Jalen Tolbert, who worked as the team's No. 4 wideout in his second season in 2023, is expected to have a bigger role in 2024 alongside CeeDee Lamb and veteran Brandin Cooks. Tolbert essentially split offensive snaps with Michael Gallup last year, but Gallup is now in Las Vegas. In 17 regular-season games (six starts) last year, Tolbert caught 22 of his 36 targets for 268 yards and two touchdowns after recording just two receptions in his rookie campaign in 2022. The 25-year-old former third-round pick in the 2022 NFL draft out of South Alabama won't necessarily be worth drafting in standard-sized fantasy leagues this fall, but if Lamb or Cooks go down with an injury at any point, Tolbert would become a popular waiver-wire pickup.
From RotoBaller
Darren Waller's expected retirement could open the door for Daniel Bellinger to become the New York Giants' No. 1 tight end in 2024 like he was as a rookie. Bellinger's receiving opportunities were limited by Waller's presence last year, but the addition of veteran blocking tight ends this offseason should allow Bellinger to be featured more as a receiver in his third season in the league. The 23-year-old former fourth-round pick in 2022 out of San Diego State has caught 55 of his 63 targets for 523 yards and two touchdowns in his two seasons with the G-Men. If Waller hangs up his cleats as things seem to be trending, Bellinger could be a decent under-the-radar TE2 target in deeper fantasy leagues this fall.
From RotoBaller
Unsurprisingly, the Jacksonville Jaguars didn't pick up the fifth-year option on new quarterback Mac Jones, who the team acquired in a trade with the New England Patriots this offseason. Jones was New England's first-round pick in 2021 but failed to make an impact as their starter under center. He went to the Pro Bowl as a rookie in 2021 but was merely a replacement player. Jones started all 42 games that he played for the Patriots, but the team went 4-13 in 2023 and Jones found himself on the bench for the final six games. The 25-year-old from Alabama regressed in each of his three seasons in Boston, but it didn't help that the Patriots were constantly bringing in new offensive coaches during his time there. Now in Jacksonville, Jones will operate as the clear backup to Trevor Lawrence in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who was taken in this year's draft with the second overall pick, has the experience and ability to give him a chance to start immediately in his first season in 2024, according to multiple sources. "When that time comes, when he's ready, then that's when we'll do it. But there's no timeline on that," head coach Dan Quinn said. If Daniels doesn't start right away, the Commanders would go with Marcus Mariota. Both Quinn and general manager Adam Peters have said they want to rely on a strong defense and run game to reduce the burden on the rookie QB. The addition of veteran players like tight end Zach Ertz and running Austin Ekeler should lessen the need for Daniels to be the leader of the offense right away. Numerous NFL coaches think Kliff Kingsbury's offensive scheme will be good for Daniels, and while he has tons of long-term potential, Daniels will be a low-end QB2 with upside in fantasy in 2024.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants running back Eric Gray has a clear path to a bigger role in New York's backfield in his second season in the league now that Saquon Barkley is no longer in town. The Giants signed Devin Singletary to be their No. 1 back, but he's never been the top dog and there will be room for carries for other backs now that Barkley is out of the picture. The Giants haven't signed any other veterans and didn't take a RB in the draft until selecting Purdue's Tyrone Tracy in the fifth round, which is the same spot Gray was taken in 2023. The 24-year-old had 23 touches for 70 yards in 13 games as a rookie last year, but his production should go up considerably in 2024 as long as he stays healthy. Gray won't necessarily be a draft target in standard 12-team leagues, but he'll surely be a waiver-wire target if Singletary misses time with an injury.
From RotoBaller
The Buffalo Bills signed former Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Chase Claypool to an undisclosed one-year deal on Friday. Even with the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason, Claypool could face an uphill battle to crack the top three in Buffalo after the addition of rookie Keon Coleman with the first pick of the second round of this year's draft. The 25-year-old former second-rounder by the Steelers in 2020 out of Notre Dame had a career-low eight receptions on 21 targets for 77 yards and one touchdown in 12 games (two starts) with the Bears and Miami Dolphins in 2023. Claypool could connect on some deep plays down the field with quarterback Josh Allen in 2024, but unless injuries open up a starting spot for Claypool, he's a long shot for consistent fantasy production.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Chargers have signed wide receiver DJ Chark,. Dynasty Analysis: Chark brings a lot of experience to the Los Angeles receiving corps but we haven't seen much from him in terms of production since 2019. After stints in Jacksonville, Detroit, and Carolina, Chark will now join his fourth team in four years, still looking to rekindle that magic. While this is clearly a "wait and see" kind of moment for Chark, it should put him back on the map now that he's paired with Justin Herbert in a new-look Chargers offense.
Dynasty | The Steelers have declined the fifth-year option on running back Najee Harris. Dynasty Analysis: Harris will now be in a contract year in 2024 as he attempts to re-establish himself as a starting caliber running back in the NFL. He will again likely be deployed in a committee with Jaylen Warren and look to impress Pittsburgh or another team as he searches for a lucrative second NFL contract. He'll need to be more effective than he was last season to do so but he showed some flashes late in the season after the Steelers threatened to move Warren to the "1A" part of the committee. Regardless, Harris remains a hold in dynasty leagues as we see just what he may have to give now that he's in a contract year.
Dynasty | The Buffalo Bills have signed wide receiver Chase Claypool. Dynasty Analysis: Claypool flamed out in Pittsburgh and was even worse in his time with the Bears and Dolphins over the past two seasons. Still, we know he has talent and this is a pretty good development in dynasty circles, at least putting him back on the map. While he's far from a trade target, this could make him a decent waiver wire pickup in the hopes he can rekindle his career with Josh Allen and a depth chart pretty void of talent.
The Miami Dolphins are signing veteran free-agent wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. to a one-year deal worth up to $8.25 million, according to Tom Pelissero. The three-time Pro Bowler has been linked to Miami for much of the offseason, and he finally found his home for the 2024 season on Friday. While this is an exciting signing for the former superstar, fantasy football expectations should be tempered. The 31-year-old has not reached the 600-yard mark in a single season since 2019, and he will now compete with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle for targets. He's a nice depth boost for Mike McDaniel's offense, but he is nothing more than a late-round flyer in 2024 fantasy drafts. Despite playing in 14 games for the Ravens last year, he caught just 35 passes for 565 yards and three touchdowns, finishing as the WR63 in PPR leagues.
From RotoBaller
The Green Bay Packers declined the fifth-year option for cornerback Eric Stokes on Thursday, according to a source. The 29th overall pick in 2021 out of Georgia, Stokes played well in his rookie season but has battled injuries the last two years. He will now be slated for free agency next spring and can make a case for a big payday if he can stay healthy in 2024. The 25-year-old played in 16 games (14 starts) as a rookie in 2021 and had a career-high 55 tackles (43 solo), an interception and 14 passes defended. However, he's played in just 12 games (11 starts) since then and has 26 solo tackles in that time. Stokes played in just three games last season. Despite his injuries the last two years, he's expected to be a starting cornerback for Green Bay in 2024 if he's healthy.
From RotoBaller
The Tennessee Titans plan to decline the fifth-year option on cornerback Caleb Farley (back), according to a source. It was the expected move for the Titans after Farley played in just 12 games (two starts) since 2021. The former 22nd overall pick in 2021 out of Virginia Tech will now hit the free-agent market after the 2024 season. Farley missed all of the 2023 campaign due to a back injury and has a total of 14 tackles (13 solo) and one pass defended in his 12 games with the Titans in 2021 and 2022. The 25-year-old defensive back will be trying to stay on the field in 2024 with Tennessee and be productive in what is now his walk year before hitting the open market next spring.
From RotoBaller
The Los Angeles Chargers have signed free agent wide receiver DJ Chark Jr. to a one-year, $5 million contract, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Chark reportedly visited with the Chargers prior to last week's NFL Draft. He could play a key role in Los Angeles after the team parted with both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason. Right now, their current depth chart is headlined by Chark, Quentin Johnston, and Joshua Palmer, as well as up-and-coming rookies Ladd McConkey and Brenden Rice. Chark spent last season with the Carolina Panthers, catching 35 passes for 525 yards and five touchdowns over the course of 15 games. While the Chargers lack a true alpha receiver at the moment, they have plenty of raw talent at the position, which could make it difficult for Chark to carve out a role. For now, fantasy managers should monitor his performance throughout training camp before they consider selecting him in drafts later this summer.
From RotoBaller
