Trout is trending the wrong way

Finding the right sleepers and breakout players can be key to winning your fantasy baseball league. However, it’s also important to avoid players who could hinder your chances of winning. Let’s highlight five players that are being overvalued at their current ADP.

Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers (ADP 46)

We already have our first stat line of the season for Glasnow after the Dodgers and Padres played two games in South Korea. Glasnow logged five innings in his Dodgers’ debut Wednesday, allowing two runs over five innings. He threw 77 total pitches, issuing four walks and three strikeouts.

Talent is not the question with Glasnow. When healthy, he is one of the best pitchers in the league. The problem has been keeping him healthy. He threw just 120 innings last season, which was actually the highest mark of his career. Since making his debut in 2016, he has just two seasons in which he has thrown at least 100 innings. Even if he somehow manages to stay healthy this season, the Dodgers probably wouldn’t push him past 150 innings during the regular season, especially since they want him to be available in the playoffs. He comes with a lot of risk for a fourth-round selection in 12-team leagues.

Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (ADP 57)

Trout is another star who has had problems staying on the field. Last season, he appeared in just 82 games. He has not appeared in at least 150 games since 2016 and he hasn’t topped 134 games in any of the last four full seasons. Still, he hit 18 home runs over his limited time on the field last season, and launched 40 home runs over 119 games in 2022. The downside to all of his injuries is that he is no longer a threat on the base paths. Over the last three seasons, he has stolen five total bases.

In addition to the injury concerns that come with drafting Trout, he is also part of an Angels’ lineup that has taken a big step backward following the departure of Shohei Ohtani. His main protection in the lineup could be Anthony Rendon, who is a shell of the player that he was on the Nationals and also can’t stay healthy. Trout, who already had a selective eye, could be walked a ton. There is upside that comes with drafting him, but the downside is also significant for a player going this high in drafts.

Blake Snell, San Francisco Giants (ADP 67)

Snell was one of the more pleasant surprises in fantasy last season. He posted a 2.25 ERA for the Padres, which was the second-best mark of his career. While his FIP wasn’t quite as good, it was still impressive at 3.44. He also had a 31.5 percent strikeout rate, marking his sixth straight season with a strikeout rate of at least 30 percent.

The downside to Snell last season was his 13.3 percent walk rate. He has had control issues throughout his career, and now he won’t have a full spring training under his belt after just signing with the Giants. He won’t be ready for the start of the season, and it wouldn’t be surprise if he misses at least a couple of turns through the Giants’ rotation as he builds up his pitch count. Don’t expect him to replicate his stellar numbers from last season.

Esteury Ruiz, Oakland Athletics (ADP 99)

Ruiz is a burner. In 2022, he stole 60 bases over 77 games at Double-A. He then stole 25 more bases over 37 games at Triple-A. With the Athletics short on talent, he appeared in 132 games for them last season, stealing a whopping 67 bases along the way.

The problem with Ruiz is, stolen bases are about all he brings to the table. Last season, he only hit .254 with five home runs. Also, despite his robust stolen base totals, he only scored 47 runs for a bad Athletics’ lineup. Their lineup likely won’t be much better this season, and a power surge is also unlikely for Ruiz. If he’s only going to provide steals, it takes a very specific type of roster build to offset the rest of his deficiencies.

Bryson Stott, Philadelphia Phillies (ADP 112)

Stott does a good job of making contact. Last season, he parlayed a 15.6 percent strikeout rate into a .280 batting average. While that average only came with a .138 ISO, he did steal 31 bases. That was a significant leap from the 12 steals that he had in 2022. With the new rules that were put into place between those two seasons, there is no reason to believe that Stott can’t be an asset in that category again this season.

In addition to Stott’s underwhelming power numbers, another concern that comes with drafting him is the Phillies’ addition of Whit Merrifield. He could steal some at-bats from Stott when a left-handed pitcher is on the mound. Stott is currently being drafted ahead of Ketel Marte (ADP 115), who has more power upside and a similar ability to hit for a high average, although he doesn’t steal many bases. Taking Stott doesn’t come with a huge risk at his current ADP, but with Marte being available in the same range and even Luiz Arraez (ADP 143) available later on, it might be best to steer clear of Stott.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.