Crochet can help teams this week

As the calendar prepares to flip to May, we are starting to get a better sample size of stats across baseball. It’s still early, but we at least have a better idea of how some lineups and starting pitchers will perform. Let’s dig into five starters who are projected to start two times each and discuss what their matchups could mean for their fantasy value.

Max Fried, Atlanta Braves: at SEA, at LAD

Injuries limited Fried to just 14 starts last season. He finished with a 2.55 ERA and a 3.14 FIP, holding hitters to a 32.7 percent hard-hit rate along the way. While he doesn’t usually produce a ton of strikeouts, he did finish with a 25.7 percent strikeout rate that was nearly two percentage points higher than his career mark. His first two outings this year were abysmal with him giving up 11 runs (10 earned) over five innings. However, he has settled down to allow four runs over 20 1/3 innings since.

While Fried has been much better lately, it should be noted that two of his last three start have come against a bad Marlins lineup. In this those outings, he gave up just one run across 15 1/3 innings. His first start of Week 6 brings a favorable matchup against the Mariners, who have scored the seventh-fewest runs in baseball. His second matchup against the Dodgers is the bigger concern since they have scored the second-most runs. The outing against the Mariners alone makes Fried worth deploying in most leagues, just temper expectations for his stat line against the Dodgers.

Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays: at MIL, vs. NYM

This season did not start off on the right foot for Pepiot, who gave up six runs over 5 2/3 innings against the Rangers. He has settled down since then, pitching at least six innings and allowing one or no runs in three of his last four starts. Not only has he posted a 0.98 WHIP in the early going, but he has a 28.2 percent strikeout rate.

Pepiot will likely catch a break when he faces the Brewers since Christian Yelich (back) should still be on the injured list. The Mets aren’t as favorable of a matchup, especially with them striking out the third-fewest times in baseball. Still, for those in 12-team and deeper leagues, Pepiot has enough strikeout upside to be worth starting.

Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox: vs. MIN, at STL

Crochet began the season by allowing four runs and recording 21 strikeouts over 18 innings in his first three starts. The bottom has fall out quickly, though, with him giving up at least five runs in each of his last three starts. His 1.18 WHIP is still encouraging, but he has given up six home runs over 29 2/3 innings.

Even with his struggles lately, Crochet has only allowed a 4.0 percent barrel rate this season. He also has a 32.0 percent strikeout rate. That stat is noteworthy for his matchup with the Twins, who have struck out the ninth-most times in baseball. The Cardinals have had their own issues, recording the fourth-lowest OPS in baseball. As bad as Crochet has been lately, the combination of his strikeout upside and these two matchups still makes him worth starting in most leagues.

Clarke Schmidt, New York Yankees: at BAL, vs. DET

Schmidt made 33 appearances last season, 32 of which were starts. He only logged 159 innings, though, often having troubles the third time he went through a lineup. It has been much of the same for him this season with him logging 5 1/3 innings or fewer in each of his five outings. His 3.55 ERA and 3.82 FIP look nice, but his 1.46 WHIP is a significant concern.

Schmidt will begin the week with a horrible matchup against the Orioles. Their talented young lineup has scored the fifth-most runs and hit the most home runs in baseball. The Tigers shouldn’t be as formidable, given that they have the fifth-worst OPS. However, Schmidt doesn’t usually pitch deep into games, regardless of his opponent. He also doesn’t carry much strikeout upside, given his career 22.3 percent strikeout rate. Given his limited upside, his start against the Orioles alone likely makes him someone to bench in 12-team leagues.

Trevor Rogers, Miami Marlins: vs. WAS, at OAK

The good news for the Marlins is that Rogers, who was limited to just four starts last season because of injuries, has logged at least five innings in each of his five starts this year. The results haven’t been great, though, with him registering a 4.10 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. His 2.85 FIP is more encouraging and could be a sign that better days are on the horizon.

The “better days” could come in Week 6 for Rogers. The Nationals have scored the third-fewest runs in baseball. The Athletics have scored the second-fewest, while also striking out the second-most times. If there was ever a week to feel good about streaming Rogers, this is it.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.