Luzardo could get back on track

There are some big names among the projected two-start pitchers for Week 6, including Max Fried and Ranger Suarez. There are also some lesser-known players who could thrive. Let’s highlight five projected two-start pitchers for next week and discuss what their matchups could mean for their fantasy production.

Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies: vs. SF, at MIA

Luzardo was excellent during his first season with the Phillies, posting a 3.92 ERA and a 3.33 xERA over 32 starts. He only gave up 0.8 HR/9, which is the lowest mark of any season of his career in which he made at least 12 starts. His 6.6% barrel rate allowed also tied the best mark of his career. He has a bloated 6.91 ERA over five starts this year, but his supporting numbers indicate he hasn’t been that bad. He has a 4.04 xERA and has given up a 6.3% barrel rate. He has mostly been done in by his .395 BABIP allowed. For his career, he has allowed a .307 BABIP.

This could be a good week for Luzardo to get back on track. The Giants are tied for the fewest home runs and have scored the fewest runs in baseball. The Marlins only have a .660 OPS versus left-handed pitchers. Luzardo could generate two valuable stat lines.

Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds: vs. COL, at PIT

Burns allowed two runs and recorded eight strikeouts across 5 2/3 innings in his last start against the Rays. He has pitched at least five innings in all five of his outings, finishing three of them with at least seven strikeouts. His strikeout rate is down compared to last season, but it’s still great at 27.0%. He enters Week 6 with a 3.48 xERA and a 3.56 xFIP.

Facing the Rockies away from Coors Field is usually a favorable matchup. They had a .589 OPS on the road last season and have a .663 OPS there this year. They have also struck out the second-most times in baseball. The Pirates are more dangerous, but they have struck out the eighth-most times. We could see Burns miss a lot of bats next week.

Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates: vs. STL, vs. CIN

Ashcraft was sharp in his last start, limiting the Rangers to two runs over seven innings. He has made five starts, logging at least six innings in three of them. In all five outings, he gave up two or fewer earned runs. That has left him with a 2.43 ERA that is backed by an even better 2.00 xERA.

Ashcraft did a great job of limiting home runs in the minors. That has carried over into the majors with him allowing four home runs over 99 1/3 career innings. The Reds and Cardinals both rank inside the top half of baseball in home runs, so if he can limit them in that department, they could have a difficult time scoring. Another reason to like his matchup against the Reds is that they have struck out the ninth-most time. Be sure that Ashcraft is locked into your starting lineup.

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians: vs. TB, at ATH

Messick made seven starts for the Guardians last season and showed upside with his 2.72 ERA and 3.06 xERA. He induced a lot of weak contact, finishing with a 5.8% barrel rate allowed and a 29.8% hard-hit rate allowed. He has done much of the same this year, allowing a 2.7% barrel rate and a 29.3% hard-hit rate. That has helped him generate a 1.76 ERA and a 3.15 xERA.

These aren’t two of the easiest matchups, but the Athletics have struck out the 10th-most times. They also have the seventh-worst OPS against left-handed pitchers. With how well Messick is pitching right now, there is no reason to bench him.

Tomoyuki Sugano, Colorado Rockies: at CIN, vs. ATL

Sugano did not pitch well last year for the Orioles, posting a 4.64 ERA and an even worse 5.79 xERA. With him allowing 1.9 HR/9, it’s a scary proposition that he is on the Rockies this year. However, he has managed a 3.42 ERA through five starts. The problem is that number might be deceiving. He has a 7.72 xERA and has allowed 1.7 HR/9. Opponents have a 15.5% barrel rate and a 46.4% hard-hit rate against him, both of which are higher than last season.

Sugano’s propensity for allowing home runs makes these two matchups even more worrisome. The Braves have hit the second-most home runs, while the Reds rank 11th. The Braves have also scored the most runs in baseball. Don’t let his early ERA fool you. Be sure to stay far, far away from Sugano in fantasy.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.