Lineup Prep: Championship Games

Wed Jan 21 9:38am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Williams should get his touches

It is hard to believe but we are down to just four teams and three games left in the entire season. Time flies when you are having run, right? I hate to see it come to an end but it has been fun season and an interesting one. Hopefully, we can learn from everything we have seen this year and come up with a winning fantasy formula in 2026.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

Can the Bills please get Josh Allen a legit No. 1 receiver? I just don’t understand how they continue to fail him in this area. He deserves a safety net in the passing game. When you have Brandin Cooks out there in big moments at this stage of his career, I don’t know how you expect Allen to get it done. It is amazing how Allen has produced at MVP levels with the lack of top options in the passing game to work with. Imagine what he might be able to do with a star receiver like Justin Jefferson or CeeDee Lamb on his side.

I still can’t get over that throw from Caleb Williams last week with the game on the line. It was one of the greatest plays I have ever witnessed from a quarterback. Williams took some kind of step forward this year. He is going to be a fantasy star for years to come. Williams is living up to the hype and I’m looking forward to watching his journey. He is just scratching the surface.

C.J. Stroud looked to be turning the corner about midway through this season but his play down the stretch is a concern. He looked awful in these playoffs, especially last week. Stroud was making some head-scratching decisions last week. He was playing more like first year, inexperienced quarterback than a guy that has been in the league three years. The Texans have to be wondering if he is indeed their franchise quarterback. Houston has maybe the best defense in football but they aren’t going to be winning big games if their quarterback keeps turning the ball over. It will be interesting to see what they do this offseason.

If you count the postseason, Christian McCaffrey had 450 touches offensively this year. Wow. There are only five players in NFL history with 450-plus touches in a single season. That is a huge concern for me for next year, especially given his injury history. I’m not sure what to think about McCaffrey for 2026. He led all running backs in fantasy scoring by a lot, so you can’t discount that, but you can’t ignore the amount of touches. McCaffrey is going to be a polarizing fantasy figure next year. You can count on that.

You have to feel bad for Bo Nix. He suffers a season-ending injury on nearly the last play of the game and will now miss a chance to lead his team to a Super Bowl. This is a devastating blow to the Broncos. I would’t count them out for this week just yet, though. Their defense is going to keep them in the game. The issue is going to be Jarrett Stidham. He is obviously a huge question mark for this game. But if he can make a few plays, Denver could pull this off. That defense is something special.

HOT PLAYS

Hunter Henry, TE, Patriots. Henry had just a catch for five yards on two targets last week. It was a disappointing performance. He had touchdowns three of his previous four games, though. Henry had double-digit fantasy points five straight and seven of eight before last week. He has been very consistent down the street, so don’t get too down on him over a game. Look for Henry to get it going against a Broncos defense that has struggled to stop the tight end much of the season. Dalton Kincaid led the Bills in receiving last week, catching six passes for 83 yards and a touchdown. Henry should be targeted early and often in this one.

Kyren Williams, RB, Rams. Williams had a huge game last week, scoring 27.7 fantasy points. H has double-digit fantasy points in all but two games this year. And with Matthew Stafford having a few struggles in the playoffs, don’t be surprised if the Rams lean on Williams and the run game this week against the Seahawks. Williams has run for 161 yards and a touchdown in two games against Seattle this year. He should be a top fantasy play again this week.

COLD PLAYS

Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams. Stafford had a huge game and a poor showing against the Seahawks this season. Which performance can you expect this week? We think it might be more on the poor side. He is coming off one of his worst games of the season last week, scoring just 12.9 fantasy points. It would not surprise if he has some struggles again on the road against the Seahawks, a team that allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.

TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Patriots. Henderson has taken a backseat to Rhamondre Stevenson late in the season. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points two straight and four of five games. He is a hard fantasy player to trust right now, especially since he gets little work in the passing game. This really hut his floor. Henderson has three receptions his last five games. We might just steer clear of him this week against the Broncos, a team that allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs during the regular season.

SLEEPERS

Colby Parkinson, TE, Rams. The Rams use all three of their tight ends, but Parkinson plays the most. Parkinson has played the most snaps of any Rams tight end for the season and last week (68 percent). He has double-digit fantasy points three of four games and five of seven games. Parkinson can do well again this week against the Seahawks, a team that allowed the 11th most fantasy points to tight ends during the regular season.

Sam Darnold, QB, Seahawks. Darnold was a concern last week because of his new oblique injury but he looked pretty healthy during the game. He didn’t seem too limited and should only get healthier this week. Seattle might need to throw more to have success offensively against this Rams defense. Darnold has thrown for 270-plus yards each of his games against the Rams this year. Of all the teams remaining, the Rams allow the most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Darnold could surprise in this one.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Rams/Seahawks.

Low Scoring Games: Patriots/Broncos.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Championship Games

The Paur Report