The Opportunity Gap

Thu Jun 25 9:16am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Odunze could surprise this year

Fantasy points tell us what happened. Opportunity metrics often tell us what should have happened.

To identify wide receivers whose usage may have outpaced their fantasy production, I created an Opportunity Score using several advanced receiving metrics that are closely tied to future fantasy success. Rather than focusing on touchdowns or fantasy points, the formula measures the quality and volume of a receiver's opportunities.

The Opportunity Score is built from five weighted components, with targets carrying the most weight because opportunity remains the biggest driver of fantasy production:

Targets – highest weight; raw opportunity
Yards Before Catch and aDOT – valuable downfield opportunity
Yards After Catch per Reception and Broken Tackles – production created once the ball is in his hands

Each receiver was ranked in every category, and those rankings were combined using the weighted formula to create an overall Opportunity Score. The resulting Opportunity Rank was then compared to each player's final fantasy finish. (Full methodology and the exact weights appear at the end of this article.)

The difference between a player's Opportunity Rank and Fantasy Rank creates what I call the Opportunity Gap. A large positive gap suggests a receiver's underlying usage was better than his fantasy results, potentially identifying players who could outperform expectations in 2026. Conversely, players with a negative gap may have benefited from favorable circumstances that could be difficult to repeat.

In short, this study is designed to find receivers whose opportunity profile suggests their fantasy finish may not tell the entire story. And the top 10 opportunity rankings from last year are a pretty good indication of the success you can have from getting these chances: seven of the top 10 fantasy receivers from last year had a top 10 opportunity ranking.

Top 10 Opportunity Rankings

Opp Rank	WR	Fantasy Rank	PPG
1.	George Pickens	WR5	16.22
2.	Nico Collins	WR8	12.62
3.	Puka Nacua	WR1	20.89
4.	Jameson Williams	WR10	12.26
5.	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR2	20.06
6.	Zay Flowers	WR7	13.68
7.	Justin Jefferson	WR21	11.19
8.	Ja'Marr Chase	WR4	17.49
9.	CeeDee Lamb	WR22	11.16
10.	Emeka Egbuka	WR23	10.87

Opportunity Underachievers

The most important takeaway here comes from the players who got the opportunities but didn't reach their fantasy potential. These could be players to target for the coming season, guys who have a chance to take some big steps forward. Below is a list of the players with the biggest gaps between their opportunity rank and fantasy rank.

WR	Opp Rank	Fantasy Rank	Gap
Rome Odunze	23	WR41	18
Parker Washington	11	WR27	16
Justin Jefferson	7	WR21	14
Emeka Egbuka	10	WR23	13
CeeDee Lamb	9	WR22	13
Marvin Harrison Jr.	38	WR50	12
Alec Pierce	17	WR28	11
D.K. Metcalf	15	WR26	11
Jordan Addison	34	WR45	11
Troy Franklin	22	WR31	9

Rome Odunze tops the list. Many had him tagged for a breakout season last year, but that didn't happen. The good news is the chances were there. He just didn't put it together in year two. Odunze could be set up for much bigger things with D.J. Moore gone and a second season in a new offense under his belt. He seems a prime candidate to get it going.

It is worth noting that Parker Washington made this list. It sure seemed like he overachieved last year, but the numbers suggest he could have been even better. He had a great finish, so maybe his slow start led to the big gap between his fantasy production and his opportunities. Washington should be a prominent part of this Jaguars offense from day one this year, and he could see his numbers bump up again, setting more career highs.

Now, it is not surprising to see Justin Jefferson on this list. He got horrible quarterback play, which led to his poor fantasy numbers. So you have to be encouraged by seeing all his usage. If Kyler Murray can play just average, Jefferson seems likely to return to past form. He could get back to his old ways in 2026.

Another notable on this list is Emeka Egbuka. The rookie receiver got off to a great start last year but really struggled down the stretch. If he can get his drops in order, things could be huge for him this coming year. Mike Evans is gone, leaving a big opportunity for Egbuka to become the top target in this pass-first Buccaneers offense. He is a prime breakout candidate for the coming season.

Marvin Harrison Jr. has been a bust to date, and these numbers help clarify that. He doesn't make the most of his chances. He should be producing better. If the light can come on for him, his fantasy numbers could rise in a hurry. Harrison has the metrics to possibly produce big. His price tag is a lot cheaper this year, so it might be worth taking a chance on him to see if the light bulb comes on.

Alec Pierce is an intriguing fantasy player. Michael Pittman is gone, leaving a lot of targets for other Colts receivers. Pierce profiles well. He is a big, strong receiver who does well down the field or after the catch. He just makes big plays. If he can get a few more consistent targets, his chances for big-time fantasy production go way up.

DK Metcalf is the last receiver on the list I want to mention. He is another guy who just makes big plays. He had just 99 targets last year but still produced some big fantasy games. He was like Pierce, making big plays when given the chance. If Aaron Rodgers can look his way just a little more, good things can happen for Metcalf. He could be a good buy-low candidate in this new Steelers offense.

Opportunity Overachievers

These are players whose fantasy finish substantially exceeded their opportunity profile.

WR	Opp Rank	Fantasy Rank	Gap
Rashid Shaheed	142	WR39	-103
Jakobi Meyers	84	WR32	-52
Davante Adams	47	WR9	-38
Josh Downs	72	WR43	-29
Drake London	45	WR18	-27

A few players on this list stand out. Davante Adams is one. His fantasy numbers were really inflated by his huge touchdown total. If he sees a touchdown regression, which seems likely, don't be surprised if fantasy teams come away disappointed with his production. It just seems unsustainable for him to score 14 times once again.

Jakobi Meyers also was an overachiever. He played his best football with Jacksonville after getting traded there. Tellingly, both of his teammates, Brian Thomas and Parker Washington, underachieved with their chances. So maybe Meyers played out of his head a little, while Thomas and Washington didn't produce like they should have. This could mean a bit of a switch in production in Jacksonville this year, meaning you might want to target Thomas or Washington instead of Meyers.

The last notable overachiever was Drake London. What stands out with London is that he got poor quarterback play but still managed to produce really good fantasy numbers. This might be one time to ignore the numbers. If he can get better quarterback play from whoever starts in Atlanta, London could see both his opportunities and his fantasy production increase. This is one case where the numbers might indicate just how good a player he is more than anything else.

Appendix: How the Opportunity Score Was Calculated

Metric	Weight
Targets	35%
Yards Before Catch	25%
Average Depth of Target (aDOT)	15%
Yards After Catch per Reception	15%
Broken Tackles	10%

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

The Opportunity Gap

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