The Route to a Better Tight End Pick

Tue Jun 30 11:09am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Fannin could get more work

Just like most positions, opportunities mean as much as anything when it comes to fantasy production. It might mean the most to the tight end spot. There are some offenses that utilize the tight end more than others. It is always a smart idea to target those fantasy tight ends that are likely to get the most chances offensively. The list below shows the teams that ran the most routes for the tight end position. It also shows the tight end that ran the most routes for each team and how much they played compared to other tight ends on their team.

Rank	Offense	TE Routes	Lead TE	Lead TE Routes	Concentration %	Fantasy Rank
1	Arizona	1121	Trey McBride	699	62%	TE1
2	Kansas City	894	Travis Kelce	586	66%	TE3
3	Cleveland	873	Harold Fannin	442	51%	TE6
4	Pittsburgh	843	Pat Freiermuth	316	37%	TE25
5	Chicago	826	Colston Loveland	391	47%	TE12
6	Cincinnati	816	Mike Gesicki	253	31%	TE41
7	LA Rams	810	Colby Parkinson	253	31%	TE16
8	NY Giants	794	Theo Johnson	441	56%	TE18
9	N. Orleans	774	Juwan Johnson	534	69%	TE8
10	Las Vegas	750	Brock Bowers	402	54%	TE11
11	Dallas	712	Jake Ferguson	502	71%	TE4
12	Indianapolis	705	Tyler Warren	516	73%	TE5
13	Tennessee	699	Chig Okonkwo	419	60%	TE21
14	Atlanta	693	Kyle Pitts	549	79%	TE2
15	Baltimore	693	Mark Andrews	351	51%	TE17
16	Denver	689	Evan Engram	368	53%	TE29
17	Patriots	667	Hunter Henry	466	70%	TE9
18	Buffalo	666	Dawson Knox	317	48%	TE28
19	49ers	658	George Kittle	292	44%	TE13
20	Philadelphia	658	Dallas Goedert	431	66%	TE7
21	Washington	658	Zach Ertz	373	57%	TE19
22	Jacksonville	657	Brenton Strange	320	49%	TE23
23	Carolina	651	Tommy Tremble	275	42%	TE43
24	Green Bay	640	Luke Musgrave	221	35%	TE53
25	Tampa Bay	638	Cade Otton	542	85%	TE22
26	Chargers	634	Oronde Gadsden	404	64%	TE15
27	Houston	631	Dalton Schultz	507	80%	TE10
28	NY Jets	631	Mason Taylor	360	57%	TE32
29	Detroit	614	Sam LaPorta	249	41%	TE27
30	Seattle	610	AJ Barner	368	60%	TE14
31	Minnesota	610	T.J. Hockenson	429	70%	TE26
32	Miami	464	Darren Waller	165	36%	TE33

It is no surprise to see Trey McBride led all tight ends in routes run and his offense also ran the most routes for the tight end. Clearly, the Cardinals had a tight-end friendly offense that utilized McBride, leading to his huge fantasy season. McBride is expected to be a huge part of the Cardinals again this year but he will have new head coach Mike LaFleur calling plays. The good news for McBride is LaFleur is from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, which has a history of good tight end production. Expect more of the same from McBride this year.

The Chiefs are a very tight-end friendly offense, running the second most routes for the position. And Travis Kelce continues to lead the way. He ran the second most routes and got a ton of targets once again. Head coach Andy Reid uses the tight end as much as any coach in the NFL. Kelce isn't getting any younger but he continues to produce. He seems a pretty good bet for another solid season in this offense.

Second-year tight end Harold Fannin is an intriguing target for the coming season. He was the sixth rated fantasy tight end last year but pretty much split the work with David Njoku. With Njoku gone, his usage could go up. It also helps that new head coach Todd Monken heavily featured the tight end during his time as Baltimore's offensive coordinator, and there are nearly 280 vacated routes for Fannin to soak up. He already had a huge season even with Njoku around. If he can see the field even more in year two, Fannin seems like a fantasy player capable of being top-three overall.

Colston Loveland is in similar situation but his teammate is still around. So Cole Kmet is a bit of a concern. But Loveland should get to run a few more routes this year, emerging as the top pass-catching tight end for a team that runs a ton of routes at the position. This is good news. He can build on his TE12 finish. He would look so much better if Kmet were not around, though.

There are three teams in the top-10 for total routes run by tight ends but all used committees. The Steelers, Bengals and Rams all had a lot of participation from the tight end position. Unfortunately, they did not have player that exceeded a 40 percent concentration level. And these three teams had their top tight end finish TE25, TE41 and TE16. Needless to say, the committee situation was not a good one for fantasy production despite seeing their offenses put tight ends on the field often. All three of these teams could follow a similar pattern this season, so buyer beware.

There are a few teams that didn't run a huge number of routes for the tight end but used the same player, giving them high usage. It could be a similar situation for both these teams this year. Dalton Schultz ran the seventh most routes while his team ran just the 27th most for tight ends. He finished as the TE10 because of all the usage. Cade Otton ran the fourth most routes for tight ends but it didn't translate to fantasy points for tight ends, ranking just 22nd. So the Bucs were a good example of an offense that utilized just one tight end most of the time but didn't give him many targets. Playing time doesn't always lead to big results on the field.

It is also interesting to see some of the teams at the bottom of this ranking. The Dolphins barely used the tight end last year, running just 464 routes for the tight end. Darren Waller led the way and had a few big games but did little for much of the season. Miami has a new offense this year, though, and Greg Dulcich gives them a more dependable tight end. It wouldn't be surprising to see the Dolphins offense reverse course some on the tight end position for the coming season.

A few teams are concerning near the bottom of the list, mainly the Vikings and Lions. These teams both have good tight ends but didn't run a lot of routes last year, leading to erratic production. T.J. Hockenson hasn't been nearly as good in recent years and this data shows why last year was another down one for him. He did get most of the work at tight end, though, so that was encouraging. And the team should have a better quarterback situation this year with newly signed Kyler Murray, who left Arizona this offseason, expected to compete for the starting job. This could lead to better production for Hockenson, but he still carries plenty of risk.

Sam LaPorta had injury issues last year, playing just nine games. This led to a down year. But it wasn't great to see the Lions run the fourth fewest routes at tight end. His targets were way down the previous season when he played a full year, seeing them go from 120 targets as a rookie to 83. LaPorta is going to be a risky pick for the coming season.

So the Packers didn't run a ton of routes for the tight end (24th overall) but Tucker Kraft still managed to finish TE24. Kraft tore his ACL and played just eight games. He didn't even lead his own team in routes run at tight end. If Kraft can get back to health for the start of the season, big things could be expected for him. He should dominate the routes at tight end for the Packers.

The bottom line is simple: chase the tight ends who get the routes and the targets in offenses that lean on the position. The best bets are the ones who dominate their team's tight end snaps and turn them into targets, like McBride, Kelce and an ascending Fannin. Be wary of the committee situations where the work gets split, and don't be fooled by raw playing time that doesn't come with targets, like we saw with Otton. Find the alpha tight end in a tight-end-friendly offense, and you will be ahead of the game on draft day.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

The Route to a Better Tight End Pick

The Paur Report