The Hidden Numbers Behind 2026 Fantasy Quarterback Breakouts

Mon Jul 20 12:57pm ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Ward could see bump in numbers


I wanted to do a deep dive into the quarterback position, looking at some numbers that didn't go each player's way this past season. The thinking is that if these numbers improve even a little, their fantasy production could take a significant jump. The three metrics examined were drop percentage by their pass catchers, pressure percentage and bad-throw percentage. I averaged those three numbers to come up with a list of the top 10 quarterbacks most plagued by those issues in 2025.

Two of the three categories are largely out of the quarterback's control. Drops and quarterback pressure are mostly dependent on the players around them, but both can improve quickly if a team addresses those weaknesses during the offseason or simply gets healthier. Bad-throw percentage, however, falls on the quarterback. We don't want to completely let the quarterback off the hook, but it's also an area that can improve from season to season, especially for younger players.

Here's how it played out...

Rank Player Drop% Bad% Prss% 2025 Fantasy Finish
1 Caleb Williams 5.5 20.7 25.1 6th (20.33 PPG)
2 Cam Ward 4.6 19.0  27.8  22nd (12.94 PPG)
3 Patrick Mahomes 5.7 17.9  24.0  11th (18.53 PPG)
4 Lamar Jackson 4.5  18.3  23.6  20th (13.91 PPG)
5 Justin Herbert 5.1  15.2  29.8  10th (18.84 PPG)
6 Jared Goff 4.6  15.8  24.5  8th (19.80 PPG)
7 Bryce Young 4.1  16.4  24.0  19th (14.63 PPG)
8 Tua Tagovailoa 4.6  15.9  21.9  25th (11.30 PPG)
9 Trevor Lawrence 8.3  14.4  21.8  4th (21.85 PPG)
10 (tie) Kirk Cousins 4.7  16.1  21.5  35th (7.06 PPG)
10 (tie) Matthew Stafford 4.8  18.1  18.5  2nd (22.78 PPG)


You'll notice these factors clearly impacted the fantasy production of the quarterbacks on this list.

Trevor Lawrence was one of only two quarterbacks on the list to finish inside the top five in fantasy scoring despite dealing with significant drop issues from his pass catchers. That suggests another season of elite fantasy production could be on the horizon if those drops regress toward the mean. Lawrence still has plenty of talented pass catchers at his disposal, so improvement in that area seems likely.

The other top-five finisher is a different case: Matthew Stafford. He's tied with Kirk Cousins for 10th on this growth-potential list, but he doesn't really fit the buy-low mold because he already delivered, finishing second overall in fantasy scoring despite dealing with drops, pressure and bad throws. If the Rams can clean up any of those issues in 2026, an already MVP-caliber season could become even better.

There are some really intriguing names near the top of the list. Caleb Williams took his game to another level in Year 2 but still has room to grow. He dealt with drops from his receivers, faced heavy pressure and was occasionally erratic with his accuracy. In fairness to his offensive line, Williams does have a tendency to hold onto the ball while trying to create big plays, so his pressure numbers may be somewhat inflated. Even so, if he gets the ball out quicker and his line provides slightly better protection, his production could continue to climb. Williams also has all the tools to become a highly accurate passer, making his bad-throw percentage another area ripe for improvement. Consider that he still finished sixth overall in fantasy quarterback scoring despite these factors working against him. A top-five fantasy finish is well within reach this season.

Cam Ward endured a difficult rookie season, although it wasn't entirely his fault. His offensive line struggled, and the receiving corps around him was below average. The Titans addressed both areas this offseason by adding help along the interior offensive line and bringing in two new weapons in first-round pick Carnell Tate and free-agent addition Wan'Dale Robinson. The biggest addition, however, may be on the coaching staff. New offensive coordinator Brian Daboll helped develop Josh Allen into an MVP in Buffalo and guided Daniel Jones to the best season of his career in New York. Ward will also benefit from another year of experience. He finished just 22nd in fantasy quarterback scoring as a rookie, but if things break his way this season, a top-15 finish is certainly attainable.

The next three quarterbacks on the list are among the most talented passers in football, making their appearance here somewhat surprising: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert. It makes more sense, though, once you look at what each dealt with last season.

Mahomes finished outside the top 10 in fantasy quarterback scoring, which is unusual for him. A torn ACL and LCL that ended his season in Week 15 certainly played a major role. Before the injury, the Chiefs also dealt with significant offensive line issues, while his receivers struggled with drops, both of which hurt his fantasy production. Kansas City spent the offseason trying to make life easier for Mahomes without completely overhauling the offensive line. The Chiefs added running back Kenneth Walker III, brought back Eric Bieniemy as offensive coordinator and hired a new wide receivers coach. They also acquired Justin Fields as insurance while Mahomes works his way back from injury. Mahomes carries more risk than usual this season because of the injury, but the ingredients are there for a return to elite fantasy production if he regains full health.

Jackson was the biggest disappointment on this list relative to expectations. Injuries forced him to miss several games late in the season, and he didn't look quite like himself even when he was on the field. He missed more throws than usual, and the numbers also show he dealt with more pressure than normal. The Ravens also underwent major organizational changes. John Harbaugh was dismissed after 18 seasons as head coach, with former Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter taking over. Longtime offensive coordinator Todd Monken departed to become the Browns' head coach, and Declan Doyle will now call plays. That's about as close to a fresh start as a veteran quarterback can get. Jackson remains one of the league's premier talents, making him a strong bounce-back candidate. The underlying numbers only reinforce that possibility.

Justin Herbert is another fascinating quarterback entering this season. At times, it felt like he had to do everything himself, making difficult throws under pressure while constantly extending plays to create offense for the Chargers. He had little choice, considering he faced the most pressures in the league. Herbert will now have offensive-minded coach Mike McDaniel calling plays. McDaniel has already spoken publicly about wanting Herbert to get the ball out more quickly and rely less on improvisation, which aligns perfectly with what these numbers suggest. His coaching résumé, highlighted by two straight playoff appearances after inheriting a struggling Dolphins offense, is another reason for optimism. Herbert appears primed for a potential career-best season after finishing 10th overall despite persistent issues with pass protection and dropped passes.

One other quarterback worth mentioning is Bryce Young. He finally started putting things together last season. While he remained somewhat inconsistent, he still finished 19th in fantasy quarterback scoring. He spent much of the year under heavy pressure and missed on several throws he typically should have completed. If he continues to develop behind an improved offensive line and benefits from better playmakers around him, Young could take another significant step forward. He's shaping up as an intriguing high-end QB2 option for fantasy managers.

In closing, fantasy managers often win leagues by identifying players who underperformed the previous season, and many of the quarterbacks on this list fit that profile. They battled drops, inconsistent offensive line play and, in some cases, their own accuracy issues. If those factors improve in 2026, several of these quarterbacks could take another step forward and significantly outperform their draft cost.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
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Dylan Sampson Aug 27 1:00am ET
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Jack Bech Aug 27 1:00am ET
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Courtland Sutton Aug 27 12:50am ET
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Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton has eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in each of the last two seasons, ranking as the fantasy WR15 or better during both campaigns. Being healthy for all 17 games was key to Sutton's success over the last two years, but even if he remains off the injury report in 2026, there could be a new obstacle in his way. The offseason addition of Jaylen Waddle adds another mouth to feed, and given that Waddle typically commanded 100+ targets for 1,000+ yards in Miami, he could significantly eat into Sutton's workload. We still expect Sutton to produce somewhat consistently with Bo Nix at quarterback, but the veteran receiver may no longer be a dependable top-20 wide receiver in fantasy football. Instead, he's falling to more of the mid-range WR3/flex tier. In fact, as it currently stands, he has fallen all the way to WR40 in RotoBaller's latest half-PPR draft rankings for the 2026 fantasy football season.

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Emanuel Wilson Aug 27 12:20am ET
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Jonathan Taylor Aug 27 12:10am ET
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Derrick Henry Aug 27 12:00am ET
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Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry may be 32 years old, but he hasn't shown many signs of slowing down. He was the RB8 in PPR leagues last year, with most of his production coming on the ground. He finished the season with 1,595 rushing yards and 16 rushing touchdowns, plus an additional 150 receiving yards. Catching passes has never been a core part of Henry's rushing skill set, but he certainly makes up for it with his physicality on runs. Whether it's short yardage or a big gain moving down the field, Henry is capable of fighting through contact for extra yards. The biggest concern for the veteran running back last year was a growing turnover issue. After losing just one fumble across 34 games in 2023 and 2024, he coughed up the football three times last year. That'll be something fantasy managers hope Henry is able to fix, as he's still worth drafting as a top-12 fantasy running back in non-PPR leagues where his limited receiving role won't hurt him too much. He currently ranks as the RB6 in RotoBaller's latest fantasy football draft rankings.

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Tre Harris Aug 26 11:40pm ET
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Phil Mafah Aug 26 11:30pm ET
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Dallas Cowboys running back Phil Mafah is not expected to make the 53-man roster for Week 1, according to roster projections from Calvin Watkins of The Dallas Morning News. Watkins did have a 15-yard touchdown run during Dallas' last preseason game, but that was the only time he touched the ball during the entire contest. Volume has been hard to come by, and it seems like he'll be the odd man out. "Mafah has done nothing wrong here," Watkins wrote. "[Malik] Davis and [Jaydon] Blue just played better in the preseason." As things stand, it looks like Davis and Blue will round out the backfield behind starter Javonte Williams, with Davis also playing a key role on special teams. Mafah, meanwhile, might need to look for a new team after just one season with the Cowboys. As a rookie last year, he tallied 29 scrimmage yards on seven touches.

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Chris Godwin Aug 26 10:00pm ET
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George Holani Aug 26 9:50pm ET
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Seattle Seahawks running back George Holani may not see the substantial workload everyone expected early in the season. Holani spent last season as the team's RB3 behind Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet, totaling just 88 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on 24 attempts. Now with Walker in Kansas City and Charbonnet recovering from a torn ACL, Holani seemed to be in line for a solid workload in Week 1. However, the emergence of first-round rookie Jadarian Price could cost him valuable touches. Price will not play in the preseason finale, as the team believes "they've seen enough from him" and that "he's too valuable to risk at this point." There have also been rumors that Charbonnet will return sooner than expected, with his recovery progressing well. Holani's fantasy value in 2026 is starting to look bleak, and he may not be worth spending draft capital on.

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Trevor Etienne Aug 26 9:40pm ET
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Carolina Panthers running back Trevor Etienne could see a larger workload in Week 1 against the Chicago Bears. As a rookie, Etienne totaled 107 scrimmage yards on 23 attempts, spending most of his time on special teams. Now, with starting running back Chuba Hubbard dealing with a hamstring injury, both Etienne and Jonathon Brooks are expected to see more work if Hubbard is unable to return for Week 1. Although Etienne would remain a limited option, the team might involve him early to help ease Brooks back into play, given Brooks' injury history. If Hubbard is able to return to practice soon and play against the Bears, Etienne would likely be phased back into his special teams role with Carolina.

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Bijan Robinson Aug 26 9:30pm ET
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Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson said on Wednesday that the new run scheme is similar to what he ran in college at Texas. Robinson said, "Obviously, he's had these legendary run schemes, and it's pretty cool just talking to him and seeing how it's all going to develop. But this is what I did in college. I love the plan that he has." At Texas, Robinson totaled 3,410 yards and 33 touchdowns in 31 games, helping him be drafted with the eighth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Over the last two seasons, Robinson has totaled over 2,900 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns. With Tyler Allgeier now in Arizona, Robinson could potentially lead the league in rushing this season. The star running back should remain one of the top three picks in fantasy drafts this season.

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Jaxson Dart Aug 26 9:20pm ET
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New York Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart has found a groove in practice after a slow start to training camp. On Wednesday, Dart completed multiple deep passes, including a 35-yarder to veteran Odell Beckham Jr. and an off-script 40+ yard pass to Darnell Mooney between two defenders. He also excelled in the goal-line period, throwing for four touchdowns and running one in on eight plays. While Dart struggled early in camp, with multiple pre-snap penalties and mistakes, the second-year quarterback has put on a show. Currently ranked QB13 in RotoBaller's positional rankings, Dart offers immense upside, given his running ability and the return of star receiver Malik Nabers for the 2026 season.

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Tucker Kraft Aug 26 8:30pm ET
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Green Bay Packers tight end Tucker Kraft (knee), who will not play in the team's preseason finale this week, is expected to be full-go for the Week 1 regular-season opener despite tearing his ACL last year, according to Rob Demovsky of ESPN. Kraft took part in the team's joint practice against the Arizona Cardinals and took a couple of hard hits, but he did not seem to be bothered at all. "I needed some contact like that to wake up the nervous system and get ready for Week 1," said Kraft. The 25-year-old continues to practice despite not having come to an agreement with the team on a contract extension, but Kraft has made it sound like something could get done sooner rather than later. There have been reports that the Packers could put Kraft on a snap count early in the 2026 season as he continues to recover from a season-ending torn ACL, but if Wednesday is any indication, that could be out the window by the time Sept. 13 comes. After catching 32 passes for 489 yards and six touchdowns in just eight games last year, Kraft has clear breakout potential and top-five upside at the TE position for fantasy managers in his fourth year in the NFL.

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Chris Olave Aug 26 8:20pm ET
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After an injury scare on Tuesday, New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (upper body) returned to training camp practice on Wednesday, according to Katherine Terrell of ESPN. Olave got the wind knocked out of him when he landed hard on his back during practice on Tuesday, and he sat out the rest of practice. It was a brief scare for the team's best pass-catcher, but the 26-year-old is now completely fine and will be ready for the start of the 2026 regular season in early September. Second-year quarterback Tyler Shough will continue to lean on Olave, with rookie first-rounder Jordyn Tyson (hamstring) set to miss the beginning of the season. Olave, a former 11th overall pick from Ohio State, was rewarded with a four-year, $132 million contract extension last month after setting career highs in catches (100), targets (156), receiving yards (1,163), and touchdowns (nine) in 2025 in his fourth year in the league. With enough volume in head coach Kellen Moore's up-tempo offense, Olave should continue to have a high floor in 2026, making him at least worthy of low-end WR1 status in fantasy football drafts. He is ranked as RotoBaller's WR10 in half-PPR scoring.

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Mike Evans Aug 26 8:10pm ET
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San Francisco 49ers veteran wide receiver Mike Evans (groin) plans to play in Week 1 in Australia against the division-rival Los Angeles Rams despite dealing with injuries in training camp this summer, a source told Jeremy Fowler of ESPN. Evans' latest injury, a groin ailment, is considered to be minor, barring a setback. The future Hall of Fame wideout has also been held out of practices with quadriceps and calf injuries, although the Niners have mostly been cautious with their WR1. The 49ers have every reason to be extra cautious when considering their bad injury luck in recent seasons, let alone with an aging 33-year-old receiver who is no stranger to nagging lower-body injuries. The six-time Pro Bowler broke a string of 11 straight 1,000-yard seasons in 2025 in his final campaign with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, playing in only eight games due to injuries while catching 30 passes for 368 yards and three touchdowns on 62 targets. A bounce-back could be coming in head coach Kyle Shanahan's offense in 2026, but durability concerns alone make Evans a pretty big risk. His ideal value now comes as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3/flex in fantasy football drafts.

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Lamar Jackson Aug 26 8:00pm ET
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Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson started and finished just 11 of 17 games last season due to hamstring, knee, ankle, back, and toe injuries, which is why he says he attempted the fewest rushing attempts of his career, according to Jamison Hensley of ESPN. "I believe you know ... a lot of people know [that] I was hurt last year, so I really could not do anything like I wanted to," Jackson said. Before last year, Jackson averaged 144 carries per season, but he only ran the ball 67 times in 2025. His bad injury luck began in Week 4, when he injured his right hamstring and missed the next three games. Despite the disappointing season, Jackson holds the NFL record for all-time rushing yards by a QB with 6,522. He is also 38 rushing attempts shy of breaking Cam Newton's record for most career carries by a signal-caller. When asked if he will run the ball more with better health in 2026, Jackson said, "Whatever it takes to win." With better health this year, Jackson should bounce back for fantasy managers as a high-end QB1 because of his elite rushing ability.

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Malik Davis Aug 26 7:20pm ET
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Nick Eatman of the Dallas Cowboys' official website writes that the running back hierarchy below starter Javonte Williams "is a question mark." They are not even sure anyone besides Williams has a solid spot on the roster, but "one would assume" that Malik Davis "has done enough to remain the backup." Second-year back Jaydon Blue played well in the preseason game against the Arizona Cardinals last week, though, as did Phil Mafah, who turned his only carry into a trip to paydirt. Blue is younger and has more all-around upside, but the 27-year-old Davis is not going away and could at least open the 2026 season as Williams' primary backup until further notice. Mafah and Israel Abanikanda are probably more on the 53-man roster bubble. In the long run in 2026, Blue figures to have the best chance to unseat Davis as Dallas' RB2 if everyone remains healthy. Davis had 52 rushing attempts last year for a career-high 250 yards (4.8 yards per carry) and two touchdowns in 10 games played, and his efficiency carries some weight. He has some handcuff appeal in deeper fantasy leagues, but if you are looking for pure upside in that role, Blue is probably the better bet.

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Mason Taylor Aug 26 7:00pm ET
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New York Jets tight end Mason Taylor showed flashes of potential during his rookie campaign last year. Despite playing fairly well, the Jets went and drafted Kenyon Sadiq (hernia) in the first-round during this year's draft. Sadiq has been slow out of the gate while he recovers from injury, which has given Taylor time to take advantage of the extra playing time. Taylor has reportedly been a standout player early during training camp. It'll be interesting to see how the Jets operate once both tight ends are healthy again. Fantasy managers shouldn't count out Taylor as an option just because Sadiq is there now. The 22-year-old has TE2 upside in an offense that could favor tight end usage this upcoming season.

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Tez Johnson Aug 26 6:50pm ET
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Tez Johnson was dealing with a minor injury, but appears to be healthy and back at practice now. The second-year wideout has some work to do if he wants to earn a bigger role in the offense this upcoming season. The 24-year-old is currently behind Emeka Egbuka, Jalen McMillan, and Chris Godwin Jr. on the depth chart heading into the season. Johnson is currently battling for the fourth wideout spot with rookie Ted Hurst. Last season, Johnson opened some eyes with his big-play potential, but he still has more work to do. Johnson is a smaller receiver who is fast, but his size will probably limit him to situational usage. He could be worth holding in deeper dynasty leagues, but Johnson probably won't have a consistent role while everyone is healthy.

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Brian Robinson Jr. Aug 26 6:40pm ET
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Atlanta Falcons running back Brian Robinson joined the team this past offseason to help offer some support in the backfield after the departure of Tyler Allgeier. Robinson started in the preseason opener, but didn't see any action during their second preseason contest. The expectation is that Robinson will take over as the RB2 in Atlanta with Allgeier moving on to Arizona. The former third-round pick posted multiple quality years with the San Francisco 49ers. Robinson didn't see a ton of action last year with the Washington Commanders, but his YPC was solid at 4.35 this past season. The Falcons don't have a ton of reliable depth behind starter Bijan Robinson, so the overall competition is limited. The 27-year-old figures to serve as the primary backup, but Bijan Robinson is a workhorse back, so his overall value is likely capped.

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Kyle Pitts Aug 26 6:20pm ET
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Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. is coming off the best season of his professional career. Finally, Pitts posted great numbers last season after a few average years in Atlanta. The Falcons changed quarterbacks this offseason, but that might actually help Pitts this upcoming season. Pitts has been a favorite target for new quarterback Tua Tagovailoa during the preseason. The two are quickly building chemistry together, which is encouraging for fantasy managers. Pitts registered 88 receptions, 928 receiving yards, and five touchdowns this past season. He'll look to beat those numbers in 2026 as likely the No. 2 option behind Drake London in the passing attack.

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Tua Tagovailoa Aug 26 6:13pm ET
Tua Tagovailoa

Dynasty | Falcons quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will start the team's final preseason game. Dynasty Analysis: He'll be backed up by Cooper Rush as Michael Penix won't play. This should be widely considered to be Tua's last real chance to show he can start in week one. If not, Penix may end up winning his job back by default as Cooper Rush has virtually no chance to get the job unless Tua is dreadful and Penix isn't physically ready. This is a mess any you slice it but it seems we'll have an answer soon enough.

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