Lineup Prep: Week 4

Wed Sep 30 8:14am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Downs should rack up the targets

Before getting to my random thoughts for the week, this is your friendly reminder that the byes start next week. A proactive owner is a winning owner, so if you have a player on a bye next week, it might be a good idea to figure out your replacement this week. You don't want to get caught off guard.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .

If you had any concerns about Brock Bowers' health, worry no more. He looked just fine in his first game of the season last week, catching 10 passes on 13 targets. Fantasy owners have to love the way new head coach Klint Kubiak used him. He was peppered with targets throughout the game and seems well on his way to a monster season.

I'm putting Justin Herbert on my bench until he starts to do something on the field. This offense just continues to look disjointed. There is time to turn it around, but Herbert belongs on fantasy benches right now. He has yet to top 17 fantasy points in a game or throw multiple touchdowns. It has been a rough start for a player many thought might be the league MVP in 2026.

Brock Purdy deserves a little more love. He is second overall in fantasy quarterback scoring after three games and is in complete control of the 49ers offense. It has been so impressive to watch him through these first three games. Purdy is playing quarterback at an elite level. I don't think this start is a fluke and expect continued big things from him. What is also encouraging is the offense is running more through him than Christian McCaffrey.

Apparently, all Luther Burden needed to get going was Case Keenum starting at quarterback. Crazy, right? I still have hope Burden has that monster breakout season, especially after seeing his production last week with Keenum as his starter. You saw what he is capable of with the ball in his hands. He is so explosive after the catch. The only thing that continues to worry me is the amount of playing time teammate Kalif Raymond gets, especially in two-receiver sets. It would be great if Burden were the guy out there in those situations instead of Raymond. That would give me even more hope for that breakout. We'll see.

The return of Michael Penix to the Falcons offense sure gave that team a shot in the arm last week. I wasn't sure how Penix would look after his long rehab, but I thought he played one of the better games of his career, all things considered. This bodes well for the entire offense going forward, including Kyle Pitts. I know last week sucked for Pitts, but he produced most of his good numbers last year with Penix throwing him passes. Don't totally give up on Pitts just yet.

I would be feeling pretty good right about now if I were a Zach Charbonnet owner. I really thought Jadarian Price was going to grab hold of the starting job while Charbonnet was out, but that clearly hasn't been the case. Price is having ball-security issues and hasn't done a whole lot with his chances. So once Charbonnet is ready to go, I think he could be a huge fantasy factor, carrying most of the load in this explosive Seahawks offense. He could be a real difference-maker for the fantasy playoffs.

Juwan Johnson was way too underrated coming into the season. He even went undrafted in some leagues. This made no sense to me, coming off a career-best season in an emerging pass game. Johnson is second overall in fantasy tight end scoring after three weeks. He has touchdowns in two of three games and at least three receptions every game. Johnson is a legit TE1 all season long in my view, even when rookie receiver Jordyn Tyson returns to the lineup. There are enough targets to go around in this offense for Johnson to keep producing good numbers.

News and Notes

Commanders: The Commanders signed running back Austin Ekeler. He gives the team another option in their running back room but might have a tough time finding consistent playing time.

Giants: The Giants released wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. on Tuesday. This might be the end of the road for Beckham, but he'll try to latch on with another team after failing to get on the field much for the Giants.

Vikings: Minnesota signed running back Devin Neal on Tuesday. The Vikings are a little thin at running back because of the injury to Jordan Mason.

49ers: San Francisco signed wide receiver Dante Pettis on Tuesday. The 49ers are decimated by injuries at receiver, so adding another one was needed.

HOT PLAYS

Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams

Stafford might be without his top receiver for the last two games, but that isn't slowing him down. He is back to playing at an MVP level. Stafford has two straight 300-yard performances and at least 26 fantasy points in each of those games. Look for him to keep it going this week against the Eagles. Philadelphia has allowed at least 20 points in every game and played a pretty easy schedule to start the year. Last week, Philadelphia couldn't stop Case Keenum and the Bears passing attack. Stafford should have a field day with this secondary, which allows the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Bucky Irving, RB, Bucs

With the Bucs missing quarterback Baker Mayfield this week, look for the offense to lean on Irving. He has been one of the few bright spots offensively to start the season. Irving has 90-plus total yards in two of three games. He has gotten a ton of work as the clear lead back for the team and averages a solid 14.03 fantasy points per game. That number could climb this week against the Packers. Green Bay continues to struggle defensively, especially against the run. The Packers allow the second-most fantasy points to running backs. Bijan Robinson almost ran for 200 yards against the Packers last week.

Josh Downs, WR, Colts

Downs is cementing himself as the clear top target in the Colts passing game with Alec Pierce out of the lineup. Downs has 12 receptions on 20 targets over his last two games and has 12-plus fantasy points in each of those games. The volume should continue to be there for Downs going forward. He also plays the Commanders this week, a team that allows the most fantasy points to receivers. Washington is 31st overall against the pass, allowing 280.3 passing yards per game.

Cam Skattebo, RB, Giants

Skattebo reached 100 total yards for the first time this season last week. He got a little more work with Jaxson Dart out of the lineup, and the Giants leaned on the run a little more, which could be the case for the offense going forward. Skattebo has 13-plus fantasy points in two of three games. He is capable of a big game any given week in this offense, especially this week against Arizona. The Cardinals are 26th overall against the rush, allowing 127 rushing yards per game. Arizona has allowed 30-plus points in each of its last two games.

Tet McMillan, WR, Panthers

McMillan had a rough game last week, catching just two passes for 17 yards. It was a really disappointing performance for all his fantasy owners. But remember, he had 75-plus yards in each of his first two games on 18 targets. And with Jalen Coker banged up, McMillan could get even more looks in Week 4. McMillan has a get-right matchup against the Lions. Detroit continues to have all sorts of injuries in the secondary. The Lions are dead last against the pass, allowing 299.3 passing yards per game. Detroit allows the third-most fantasy points to receivers. McMillan should make his owners forget about that Week 3 game in a hurry.

COLD PLAYS

Kirk Cousins, QB, Raiders

Cousins and the Raiders have been a huge surprise to start the season. Las Vegas is 3-0 and looking like a completely different team this year. Cousins has three touchdown passes in each of his first three games. This is a run-first offense, though, and Cousins hasn't posted huge yardage numbers to date. He is not a sure thing despite a great start to his season, especially at this stage of his career. Cousins will have his toughest test of the season, playing divisional rival Kansas City. The Chiefs allow the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, and their pressure defense could cause issues for Cousins. We would stay away from him in Week 4.

Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints

Kamara has a chance to be the starter in the coming weeks with Travis Etienne banged up. Kamara has a huge track record of success, but his play this year is a little worrisome. He has run 18 times for just 51 yards, averaging 2.8 yards per carry. He hasn't done any better as a receiver, catching six passes for 12 yards. He has been very inefficient with his chances. A bigger workload doesn't mean he will start producing big numbers. To make matters worse, Kamara gets the best run defense in football this week. The Falcons allow just 47.7 rushing yards per game. Leave Kamara on your bench for Week 4.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Broncos

Just when you think you can trust Waddle again, he has another dud of a game. He had just two receptions for 10 yards last week. So he has 10 or fewer receiving yards in two of three games to start his career with the Broncos. He has been uneven to start the year, and another down game could be on the horizon this week. Waddle plays the 49ers, a team that allows just 207.3 passing yards per game. The 49ers allow the 11th-fewest fantasy points to receivers. It could be another tough game for Waddle in Week 4.

Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens

Andrews is having a decent start to his season but is yet to top 50 yards in a game. He has scored double-digit fantasy points in just one of three games. He is getting his catches on a weekly basis, but his ceiling is a little limited right now because of a lack of yards and scores. It could be more of the same for Andrews in Week 4 against Tennessee. The Titans allow the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Tennessee is seventh overall against the pass.

Ollie Gordon, RB, Dolphins

Gordon was a hot item on waivers this week because of the injury to De'Von Achane. Gordon will get the first chance to be the starter for the Dolphins going forward. He isn't exactly a sure thing, though. He averaged just 2.4 yards per carry on all his work last week. Gordon plays in a poor offense and should face plenty of stacked boxes from opposing defenses, forcing quarterback Malik Willis to beat them. Gordon is going to be more of a matchup play, and a matchup against the Vikings this week is not a good one. Minnesota has one of the elite defenses in football and allows the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs.

SLEEPERS

Marcus Mariota, QB, Commanders

Mariota had a really good first start of the season, scoring 22.25 fantasy points. He might have played better than the guy he took over for, moving the offense well while making sound decisions. He has some spot-start appeal for fantasy owners because of his ability to make plays with his legs and find the end zone. Mariota has a matchup for more success this week, getting the Colts. Indy allows the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and has struggled to stop the pass all season long.

Woody Marks, RB, Texans

Marks has pretty much split the snaps with David Montgomery this year, playing in more of a timeshare than expected. Marks scored his first touchdown of the season last week, getting the red-zone work over Montgomery. This was a surprise but bodes well for Marks going forward. And with Montgomery struggling with his chances, Marks could start to get more opportunities. Marks gets a Cowboys defense that allows the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs. Dallas allows the second-most rushing yards per game (179.7). Marks could be a sneaky play as a flex option for fantasy teams in Week 4.

Mack Hollins, WR, Patriots

Hollins has played the most snaps of any Patriots receiver this year. He has 50-plus yards in two of three games. Hollins had his best game of the season last week, catching six passes for 87 yards on nine targets. He clearly is a top option in the Patriots passing game with A.J. Brown out of the lineup. The Patriots are going to have to score some points this week if they hope to keep up with the Bills, so look for the team to throw the ball in this matchup. Buffalo is 27th overall against the pass, allowing 254.3 passing yards per game. Hollins could be worth a shot as a WR3 in Week 4.

Darren Waller, TE, Panthers

Waller was a little touchdown-dependent his first two games but got looks outside of the red zone last week. This was encouraging for his fantasy floor, as he caught five passes on eight targets. He is quickly gaining fantasy value as the starting tight end in this offense. He has some streaming value this week. Waller gets the Lions, a team that has really struggled to stop the tight end. Detroit allows the most fantasy points to tight ends, allowing at least 27 fantasy points to tight ends in all three of its games.

Malachi Fields, WR, Giants

Fields has done little to start his rookie season, but he has some good underlying numbers. He has 12 targets in three games and has played the most snaps of any Giants receiver, even more than Malik Nabers. It just seems like a matter of time before Fields has a big performance. Why not this week against the Cardinals? Arizona allows the fourth-most fantasy points to receivers, and as mentioned earlier, this defense is allowing a ton of points right now, giving up 30-plus in each of its last two games. Fields is our pick to click in the passing game for the Giants in Week 4.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week, we'll take a look at some of the high- and low-scoring games for the coming week. In high-scoring affairs, get your marginal players in those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. In the low-scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High-Scoring Games

Jaguars/Bengals, Broncos/49ers, Chiefs/Raiders, Lions/Panthers, Falcons/Saints.

Low-Scoring Games

Steelers/Browns, Packers/Bucs, Dolphins/Vikings.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 4

The Paur Report