RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 7

Thu Oct 22 11:29pm ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

The headliner team on a bye during Week 7 is the Bills. Not only does that mean we can’t enjoy Josh Allen and James Cook III in DFS, but it also means we can’t attack Buffalo’s porous defense. Let’s dig into the slate and highlight some players to consider at each position, along with a few to possibly avoid.

Quarterbacks

Jordan Love, GB at DET ($6,000): Love threw for 276 yards, one touchdown and one interception against the Cowboys last week while also adding his first rushing touchdown of the season. His overall stat line could have been much better, but a couple of key drops by his receivers got in the way. Josh Jacobs could make his return, but even if he does, this is a Packers team that will likely rely heavily on Love against a Lions team that allows the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Tanner McKee, PHI vs. DAL ($4,500): Jalen Hurts might miss the remainder of the season while recovering from blood clots. McKee attempted 45 passes in his place last week against the Panthers but totaled only 215 yards and one touchdown. This is a great matchup for him against the Cowboys, who allow the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Combine the favorable matchup with his extremely cheap salary, and McKee is at least worth considering in tournament play.

Player to Avoid

Sam Darnold, SEA vs. KC ($5,200): Since returning from injury, Darnold has thrown seven interceptions over four games. He had four touchdowns against the Commanders in Week 3 but has combined for just three touchdowns in three games since. This isn’t a good matchup for him to get back on track, considering the Chiefs have more interceptions (five) than touchdown passes allowed (four).

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey, SF at ATL ($7,600): With Mike Evans (Achilles) potentially forced to miss Week 7, the 49ers continue to rack up injuries at wide receiver. Their lack of depth at the position contributed to McCaffrey being targeted 10 times against the Commanders last week, resulting in nine receptions for 53 yards. He also had 16 carries for 64 yards and two touchdowns, marking his fifth straight game with at least one score. Expect him to have a very high floor against a Falcons team that allows 25.5 points per game.

Bucky Irving, TB at CAR ($6,100): Irving posted 46 rushing yards against the Steelers in Week 6, marking his third game of the season with fewer than 50 rushing yards. However, his workload isn’t a concern, as he has recorded at least 15 rushing attempts in five straight games. The Panthers allow the most yards per carry to running backs in the league, meaning Irving could produce one of his better stat lines of the season in his leading role.

Player to Avoid

Ashton Jeanty, LV vs. LAR ($6,500): Jeanty found his way into the end zone during the Raiders’ 33-30 loss to the Bills last week, but the rest of his stat line was underwhelming. He ran 10 times for just 22 yards and finished with four receptions for 36 yards. He has gone five straight games with fewer than 60 rushing yards, with most of his value coming from his contributions in the passing game. The Rams have allowed just two touchdowns to running backs all season, so it might be difficult for Jeanty to live up to his salary this week.

Wide Receivers

DeVonta Smith, PHI vs. DAL ($6,700): McKee targeted Smith 14 times in his first start in place of Hurts. Smith turned those targets into seven receptions for 75 yards and one touchdown. The Cowboys allow the fifth-most yards per target to wide receivers and have given up six touchdowns to the position. A McKee-Smith stack has upside in tournament play, especially when factoring in their combined salaries.

Matthew Golden, GB at DET ($6,000): After a disappointing rookie season, Golden has become an important member of the Packers’ passing attack. He performed well again last week, recording six receptions for 103 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys. He has a 25.8% target share for the season and has accounted for 41.4% of the team’s air yards. The sky is the limit for him against the Lions.

Player to Avoid

Josh Downs, IND at MIN ($5,600): Targets aren’t the problem for Downs. He has 42 through six games. However, his average depth of target is a modest 10.7 yards, and he hasn’t scored a touchdown despite receiving five red-zone targets. The Vikings allow the eighth-fewest yards per target to wide receivers, and their defense has limited teams to 12.8 points per game. It’s difficult to envision Downs thriving in this tough matchup.

Tight Ends

George Kittle, SF at ATL ($5,700): With the 49ers seemingly losing a new wide receiver to injury each week, Kittle has become even more vital to their success. With Evans leaving early last week, Kittle caught five of eight targets for 69 yards and a touchdown. The 49ers look his way when they get close to the end zone, leaving him with 10 red-zone targets through six games. That has helped him record five touchdowns. Those scores are noteworthy because the Falcons have already allowed four touchdowns to tight ends this season.

Evan Engram, DEN at ARI ($3,000): Engram should be considered a dart throw in tournament play for those who want to allocate more of their budget to the quarterback, running back or wide receiver positions. He has only 12 receptions for 134 yards and one touchdown this year, but he ranks fourth on the team in targets behind Jaylen Waddle, Courtland Sutton and RJ Harvey. The main reason to consider Engram in DFS is his matchup against the Cardinals, who allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Player to Avoid

Travis Kelce, KC at SEA ($5,500): Rashee Rice (hamstring) did not play against the Chargers last week, but Kelce still managed only a modest stat line of four receptions for 53 yards. Rice could be sidelined again this week, but the matchup against the Seahawks is worrisome for Kelce. They allow the second-fewest yards per target to tight ends and are tied for the seventh-fewest receptions allowed to the position. Kittle has a similar salary and a better matchup, so this might be a good week to fade Kelce.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.