Gray really limits the home runs

Now that the All-Star break is in the books, we’ve hit the stretch run in fantasy baseball. Some teams have yet to formally announce the order of their rotations coming out of the break, but we do have some projected two-start pitchers to discuss for Week 18. Here are five of them and what to expect in fantasy baseball based on their respective matchups.

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners: vs. LAA, at CWS

Gilbert is having an excellent season, posting a 2.79 ERA and a 3.37 FIP across 20 starts. He has allowed a 37.2 percent hard-hit rate, which is the lowest mark of his career. While he doesn’t rack up a ton of strikeouts, he’s not hurting fantasy managers significantly in that department with his 24.8 percent strikeout rate.

Gilbert begins the second half with two excellent matchups. First up will be the Angels, who have scored the fifth-fewest runs in baseball. Then he will take on the White Sox, who have scored the fewest runs and have the worst OPS in baseball. Gilbert should thrive in both matchups.

Jon Gray, Texas Rangers: vs. CWS, at TOR

Gray has an uninspiring 4.01 ERA, but his 3.48 FIP is more encouraging. One of his strengths has been his ability to keep hitters inside the ballpark. He has allowed just 0.8 HR/9 this season and has given up 1.1 HR/9 for his career. The downside is that his strikeout rate has declined to 20.1 percent this year. That is on pace to be the second-lowest mark of his career.

While strikeouts might not be Gray’s forte, he is still an excellent option for Week 18. We already mentioned how poorly the White Sox have produced offensively. The Blue Jays have also struggled, scoring the sixth-fewest runs in baseball. A big part of the Blue Jays’ problems is that they have hit the fourth-fewest home runs.

Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees: vs. TB, at BOS

The wheels seem to have come off for Rodon. He has been torched of late, posting a 9.67 ERA across his last six starts. During that span, he had a 1.96 WHIP and gave up nine home runs over 27 innings. Part of his problem was a lack of command that resulted in him walking 13 batters. On the bright side, he did record 38 strikeouts.

Rodon is set to take on the Rays and Red Sox, both of which he also faced during his recent slump. Against the Rays, he allowed four runs over four innings. When he faced the Red Sox, he was tagged for five runs over five innings. Until Rodon shows signs of turning things around, he should be anchored to the bench in most fantasy leagues.

Colin Rea, Milwaukee Brewers: at CHC, vs. MIA

Rea did not pitch well last season, posting a 4.55 ERA and a 4.90 FIP. While his 3.77 ERA this season is a significant improvement, his FIP still isn’t great at 4.48. Another concern is that his strikeout rate is only 17.2 percent. On a positive note, he has allowed just 1.2 HR/9 after giving up 1.7 HR/9 last year.

Rea makes for an interesting streaming option based on his two matchups. He has already faced the Cubs two times this year, allowing a total of three runs and recording 13 strikeouts over 10 2/3 innings. The Marlins are a great matchup for most pitchers, given that they have hit the fewest home runs and scored the second-fewest runs in baseball. Don’t expect much in the way of strikeouts for Rea, but he is still worth streaming in 12-team leagues.

Mitchell Parker, Washington Nationals: vs. SD, at STL

Parked ended the first half on a low note, getting tagged for five runs and recording only two outs in his last start against the Brewers. After a strong beginning to the season, he has underwhelming with a 4.58 ERA over his last seven outings. He had a 1.27 WHIP during that span, compared to his 1.14 WHIP for the season.

Parker hasn’t left himself with much margin for error with his modest 20.1 percent strikeout rate. His lack of upside in that department makes him a bit of a shaky fantasy option, even during a projected two-start week. Some potentially good news for him is that the Padres and Cardinals both rank inside the bottom-10 in baseball in OPS against left-handed pitchers. Those in shallower leagues might want to stay away from starting Parker, but he’s a viable streaming option in 12-team and deeper leagues.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.