Alonso heads to the Orioles

Spring Training is underway across baseball. As we prepare for fantasy drafts and the start of the regular season, there are plenty of familiar faces that changed teams during the winter doldrums. Let’s highlight six of them and discuss their fantasy outlooks with their new squads.

Kyle Tucker, Los Angeles Dodgers

After winning their second straight World Series, the Dodgers continued to spend on star players during the offseason. In addition to adding Edwin Diaz as their new closer, they strengthened their lineup by signing Tucker away from the Cubs. Despite being limited to 136 games last season, Tucker recorded 22 home runs and 25 stolen bases to go along with his .363 wOBA.

One of Tucker’s strengths is his eye at the plate. For his career, he has a 15.8% strikeout rate to go along with his 11.5% walk rate. It is a bit concerning that he combined to play just 214 games over the last two seasons, but the lineup upgrade that Tucker will receive as a member of the Dodgers is tremendous. Tucker could hit behind Shohei Ohtani, with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman then serving as his protection. At a minimum, those should be the Dodgers’ top four hitters in some order. Tucker has never had a season with at least 100 runs scored and 100 RBI, but he could reach that feat this year if he can stay healthy. Combine that with his ability to provide steals and he could be well worth his current ADP of 14.

Alex Bregman, Chicago Cubs

Like Tucker, injuries limited Bregman last season. Still, he had 18 home runs and a .356 wOBA over 114 games with the Red Sox. He used that performance to cash in, signing a five-year, $175 million contract with the Cubs. It was a much-needed addition for their lineup, given the departure of Tucker to the Dodgers. Bregman is certainly an upgrade at third base over Matt Shaw, who finished with just a .689 OPS over 126 games last year.

Prior to last year, Bregman had played at least 145 games in three straight seasons. In each of those campaigns, he launched at least 23 home runs. In two of them, he finished with an OPS of at least .804. Currently, Bregman has a modest ADP of 108. While his upside isn’t off the charts, he comes with a high floor that late in drafts.

Pete Alonso, Baltimore Orioles

Alonso spent his entire seven-year career with the Mets before signing with the Orioles this winter. Last year, he had one of his best seasons with 38 home runs and 126 RBI to go along with a career-high .272 batting average. With those lofty numbers in hand, he cashed in to the tune of a five-year, $155 million contract with Baltimore.

Alonso is a career .253 hitter. His batting average last season was aided by his career high .305 BABIP. However, that could be because he set career bests in both barrel rate (18.9%) and hard-hit rate (54.4%). Expect him to continue to hit home runs in bunches, but asking him to bat over .270 again might be too much. His ADP checks in at 28, right behind Yordan Alvarez. Alvarez comes with the potential for a much higher batting average, but injuries have limited him to fewer than 115 games in two of the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Alonso has played at least 152 games in five straight seasons. Expect Alonso to be one of the more reliable first base options in fantasy again.

Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays

After losing to the Dodgers in the World Series, the Blue Jays made a big splash by adding Cease to their rotation. While he finished with a 4.55 ERA last season, his xERA was 3.45 and his xFIP was 3.56. For his career, he has a 3.68 xERA and a 3.84 xFIP. However, he also has a 10.0% walk rate for his career.

The main reason to like Cease in fantasy is his ability to miss bats. He had a 29.8% strikeout rate last season and has a 28.6% strikeout rate for his career. The AL East is loaded, with the Rays being the only team that doesn’t sport a deep lineup. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Cease finishes with an ERA around 4.00 again and a WHIP around 1.25. Still, his strikeout upside makes him worth consideration at his current ADP of 69.

Devin Williams, New York Mets

Williams’ one-year stint with the Yankees was a disaster. His 4.79 ERA was the highest mark of his career and contributed to him losing the closer job. He finished with just 18 games despite logging a career high 62 innings. Even though he struggled, he still landed a three-year contract with the Mets and will take over as their closer with Diaz now on the Dodgers.

It would be a surprise if Williams finished with such a poor ERA again. His xERA was 3.05 last season and his xFIP was 2.95. He still had a 34.7% strikeout rate and his 9.7% walk rate was his lowest mark since 2020. One of the main reasons why he gave up so many runs was his left on base rate was only 55.2%. For his career, that mark is 75.8%. His ADP is all the way down to 98. Save chances shouldn’t be difficult to come by on a Mets team that should be competitive, so if Williams can strand base runners at a rate more in line with his career mark, he could end up being a bargain.

Framber Valdez, Detroit Tigers

The Tigers have a big decision coming up with regard to Tarik Skubal. The back-to-back AL Cy Young winner is in the final season of his contract and is line to land one of the biggest contracts in baseball. The two sides have reportedly been far apart in contract discussions, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if this was his last season with the franchise. That may have contributed to the Tigers agreeing to a three-year, $115 million contract with Valdez this winter.

Valdez is not a big swing-and-miss pitcher like Skubal. For his career, his strikeout rate sits at just 23.5%. However, he has been successful because he has permitted just 0.7 HR/9 for his career. His 3.36 ERA is backed by a 3.76 xERA and 3.34 xFIP. With his ability to help with ratios, his ADP comes in at 74. While he can justify that, just remember that you’ll need to load up on other strikeout options as your draft moves along.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.