Springer might struggle to repeat

Sometimes, it’s the players that you don’t draft that result in you winning your fantasy baseball league. Whether it be the potential for poor performance or injury risk, not drafting a player too high can be key. Let’s look at five overvalued players who it might be best to avoid at their current ADP.

James Wood, Washington Nationals (ADP 36)

The Nationals hope that Wood will be one of the driving forces behind turning the franchise around. He played 157 games last season, batting .256 with 31 home runs, 94 RBI, 87 runs scored and 15 stolen bases. He recorded a .350 OBP that was backed by a .353 wOBA. Another set of encouraging stats was his 16.3% barrel rate and 56.3% hard-hit rate. When he makes contact, the ball can go a long way.

The issue with Wood is how often he strikes out. He posted a 32.1% strikeout rate, which was up from 28.9% the season prior. This isn’t a new trend, given how often he swung and missed in the minors. In 2023, he had a 31.5% strikeout rate across High-A and Double-A. Wood is currently being selected ahead of established stars like Bryce Harper (ADP 41), Freddie Freeman (ADP 52) and Mookie Betts (ADP 53). If you want a high-upside outfielder, look at Roman Anthony at his significantly later ADP of 60. He projects to hit for a higher average, has some speed and can slug at least 20 home runs. Given draft cost, I’ll happily take Anthony over Wood.

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers (ADP 49)

Everything went right for deGrom last season. He finally stayed healthy, logging 172 2/3 innings. He didn’t appear to lose a step, recording a 2.97 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. His numbers were backed by a 3.36 xERA and a 3.37 xFIP. His strikeout rate was lower than his career mark, but he didn’t exactly struggle in that department with a 27.7% strikeout rate.

deGrom staying healthy was a surprise, given that he logged a total 197 1/3 innings across the previous four seasons combined. It was the first time that he threw at least 100 innings in a season since 2019. deGrom turns 38 years old in June, so age is also becoming a concern. If everything doesn’t break his way again, he could be a significant bust inside the top 50 in drafts. He’s not a risk that I’m willing to take.

George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays (ADP 69)

Springer’s production has been at two ends of the extreme over the last two seasons. In 2024, he batted .220 with a .298 wOBA, 19 home runs and 16 stolen bases. Last year, he hit .309 with a .408 wOBA, 32 home runs and 18 steals. He did that despite playing five fewer games. The main reason for his improvement was his quality of contact. After posting a 9.2% barrel rate and a 37.2% hard-hit rare in 2024, he had a 15.8% barrel rate and a 46.7% hard-hit rate last year.

The real Springer probably falls somewhere in the middle of the last two seasons. For his career, he is a .266 hitter with a .357 wOBA, 10.6% barrel rate and a 40.9% hard-hit rate. Asking him to hit over .300 again, while also hitting at least 30 home runs, is a tall order. If his batting average drops to around .270, is he all that different from Teoscar Hernandez, who has a career .261 average, .340 wOBA and has hit at least 25 home runs in five straight seasons? Hernandez’s ADP is all the way down to 117. He won’t steal as many bases as Springer, but that isn’t enough to justify such a gap in ADP for me.

Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (ADP 79)

Buxton appeared in 126 games last season. Although that doesn’t seem like a lot, it was the second-most that he has played in a single season during his career. He made it count, slugging 35 home runs to go along with 24 stolen bases. His .367 wOBA was the highest mark of his career, narrowly edging out his .366 wOBA from the season prior. However, he played just 102 games in 2024.

Buxton made his debut in the majors in 2015. Since then, he has appeared in at least 100 games in a season just three times. Like deGrom, Buxton comes with a lot of injury risk. It helps that he’s going outside the top 75, but it’s not by much. I’ll let someone else take a chance on him. I think he has a better chance of playing fewer than 100 games than he does playing at least 125 again.

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (ADP 106)

Entering 2025, Wheeler was one of the more reliable pitchers in baseball. He threw at least 190 innings in three of the previous four campaigns. He hasn’t posted a WHIP above 1.08 since 2020 and he had an ERA below 3.00 four of the last five seasons. Another stellar season looked to be in the cards when he produced a 2.71 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 2.73 xFIP and 33.3% strikeout rate through 24 starts last year. However, his season ended in August when he had a blood clot and was then diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome.

After undergoing offseason surgery, it looks like Wheeler will be on the injured list once this season gets underway. He could be back relatively soon, but what will he look like when he does return? Thoracic outlet surgery can be difficult to come back from, like what we saw in the past with Matt Harvey. Even though he’s going outside the top 100, it’s still risky to draft Wheeler.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.