Rodriguez carries some risk

There are 12 teams scheduled to play all seven days during Week 7. That leaves a lot of two-start pitchers for us to consider. Let’s highlight five of them and discuss what their matchups might mean for their fantasy production.

Jose Soriano, Los Angeles Angels: vs. CWS, at TOR

Soriano has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball, posting a 0.84 ERA across seven starts. That kind of ERA isn’t sustainable, but his 3.09 xERA confirms that he is pitching well. There have been two big areas of improvement from him. First, his strikeout rate of 30.1% is seven percentage points higher than his career mark. Second, he has limited hitters to a 33.7% hard-hit rate. For his career, he has given up a 45.0% hard-hit rate.

Soriano just faced the White Sox in his last start, allowing three runs and recording six strikeouts over five innings. The White Sox have struck out the fourth-most times in baseball, so Soriano could continue to shine in that department. Following an appearance in the World Series last year, the Blue Jays have the sixth-worst OPS in baseball out of the gate. Some regression could be coming for Soriano, but it might not begin in Week 7.

Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins: at WAS, at CLE

Bradley came up through the Rays’ system with promise, but his first two seasons in the league were largely a disappointment. He was eventually traded to the Twins, providing a fresh start. Things are looking up for him this year with him posting a 2.85 ERA across seven starts. However, his underlying numbers aren’t as impressive. His xERA is 4.01, which is close to his career xERA of 4.18. His 46.9% hard-hit rate allowed is also on pace to be the highest mark off his career.

This is a tricky two-start week for Bradley. The Nationals can hit, scoring the second-most runs in baseball. However, the Guardians lineup is a mess, which has left them to score the sixth-fewest runs. They also have the fifth-worst OPS. The outing against the Nationals is risky, but Bradley is still worth starting in most formats.

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians: at KC, vs. MIN

While Bibee finished last season with a 4.24 ERA, his 3.62 xERA indicates that he pitched well. His 23.6% strikeout rate for his career limits his upside, but he is still able to be successful because he doesn’t walk many batters and has allowed just a 37.9% hard-hit rate for his career. Through seven starts this year, he has given up two or fewer runs five times.

Bibee already faced the Royals once this year, allowing one run over 4 2/3 innings. They are not a scary rematch, considering they rank 15th in OPS. The Twins rank eighth in runs scored, but they might be overachieving, considering they have the fifth-lowest hard-hit rate in the majors. There’s no need to bench Bibee in fantasy.

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks: vs. PIT, vs. NYM

Just looking at his 3.03 ERA doesn’t tell the entire story when it comes to Rodriguez through seven starts. He has been wild, resulting in an 11.2% walk rate that has left him with a 1.41 WHIP. That puts him on pace for his third straight season with a WHIP of at least 1.40. Considering his 15.4% strikeout rate, he doesn’t have much margin for error. His xERA is 5.01, so buyer beware.

A start against the Mets might make some fantasy managers consider streaming Rodriguez in Week 7. They have the worst OPS in baseball and continue to play without Francisco Lindor (calf). However, the Pirates are tied for ninth in runs scored and have a much more dangerous lineup this year. Combine that with Rodriguez’s lack of strikeouts and he’s someone to avoid in 10 and 12-team leagues.

Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles: at NYY, vs. ATH

In his first season with the Orioles, Baz has a 1.50 WHIP across six starts. He has been a little unlucky with opponents recording a .352 BABIP against him. For his career, he has allowed a .285 BABIP. It’s not as if he’s giving up a lot of hard contact, either, considering his barrel rate allowed is 6.5%. The one big negative has been his strikeout rate dropping to 19.3%.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if Baz whittled down his WHIP as the season moves along. However, beginning Week 7 with a road start against the Yankees could be a recipe for disaster. They lead baseball in home runs and rank fifth in home OPS. The Athletics also have dangerous young power hitters, led by Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers. There might be other weeks when Baz is worth streaming, but this isn’t one of them.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.