A packed schedule for Week 19 means that we have a lot of projected two-start pitchers. However, some of them might not be worth deploying in the majority of fantasy leagues. Let's highlight five projected two-start pitchers and discuss what their matchups might mean for their potential production.
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies: at MIA, at BAL
In his first start following the All-Star break, Wheeler continued to dominate by allowing two runs and recording nine strikeouts over seven innings against the Dodgers. Across his last nine starts, he allowed two or fewer runs eight times. His ERA is down to 2.16 for the season, and his 2.61 xERA backs up his strong performance. He also continues to miss plenty of bats, generating a 30.8% strikeout rate.
Wheeler has two favorable matchups headed his way during Week 19. He has already faced the Marlins two times this season, posting a total of 17 strikeouts and allowing just one run over 12 innings. The Orioles have posted the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball, while also ranking 20th in slugging percentage. Wheeler has the potential to provide two dominant stat lines.
Michael King, San Diego Padres: vs. COL, vs. SF
King has pitched better lately, allowing a total of five runs over his last four starts. That included two difficult matchups against the Dodgers and Braves on the road. His 21.0% strikeout rate has been disappointing, and it marks the fourth straight season in which his strikeout rate has declined. Still, his 1.17 WHIP is an improvement on his 1.20 WHIP from last season. A key to his remaining successful despite the lack of strikeouts has been allowing only 0.8 HR/9.
Since joining the Padres, King has a 3.64 xFIP and 1.15 WHIP at home. That's where he will be for both of his starts next week. Facing the Rockies away from Coors Field is key because they only have a .710 OPS on the road. At Coors Field, their OPS is .779. The Giants have been bad regardless of where they play as they are tied for the third-fewest runs in baseball. Deploy King with confidence.
Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals: at MIN, at COL
In his 11th season in the majors, Lugo continues to eat innings for the Royals. It's not always pretty, given his 4.36 ERA and 1.37 WHIP this year. However, he can still twirl the occasional gem. Over his last two starts, he gave up five runs (four earned) over 13 innings. In those two starts, he allowed a total of just seven hits. Still, he doesn't come with a ton of upside in fantasy, evident by his 18.8% strikeout rate.
Lugo can still be valuable when he has favorable matchups. However, that won't be the case next week. The Twins have scored the seventh-most runs in baseball. Then he will face the Rockies at Coors Field. Their .442 home slugging percentage is the fourth-highest in the category in baseball. Be sure to anchor Lugo to your bench.
Walbert Urena, Los Angeles Angels: vs. HOU, vs. MIL
Urena throws hard, averaging 97.5 miles per hour with both his sinker and his four-seam fastball. That has helped him record a 2.78 ERA that is backed by a 3.20 xERA. His strikeout rate is just 22.0%, but he has limited hitters to a 5.0% barrel rate and a 33.2% hard-hit rate. He keeps hitters off balance with his changeup, which he has thrown 32.1% of the time, generating a 36.6% whiff rate.
As good as Urena has been, his two matchups next week are scary. Despite this being a disappointing season for the Astros, Yordan Alvarez has helped them rank inside the top half in baseball in both runs scored and OPS. The Brewers are fifth in runs scored and ninth in OPS. These are also two good contact-hitting teams. The Brewers have the seventh-lowest strikeout rate, while the Astros have the 10th lowest. If there was ever a week to avoid Urena, this is it.
Kumar Rocker, Texas Rangers: at TB, at HOU
Rocker dominated the White Sox in his last outing, allowing just one hit over six scoreless innings. He also produced six strikeouts, marking the fourth time over his last five games that he registered at least five strikeouts. Still, he hasn't been a great fantasy contributor with his 4.13 ERA and 4.60 xERA. Even with the progress that he has made this year, he has a 1.31 WHIP and a paltry 20.9% strikeout rate.
Rocker is much younger than Lugo, but their fantasy values are similar. They don't provide a lot of strikeouts, so matchups are very important. We already mentioned that facing the Astros can be troubling for a pitcher, and the Rays are no cakewalk, either. They are pesky, posting the lowest strikeout rate in the majors at 18.9%. That has helped them rank 14th in runs scored despite only being 25th in home runs. There are weeks in which Rocker can provide value, but this probably isn't one of them.
