Pfaadt has turned it around

The trade deadline is Monday, so we could see some rotation changes during Week 20. However, as things currently stand, there is an interesting mix of projected two-start pitchers. Let’s highlight five of them and discuss what their matchups could mean for their fantasy production.

Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves: vs. MIA, at NYY

Sale twirled yet another gem in his last outing, throwing six shutout innings against the Mets. He only allowed two hits, while posting nine strikeouts. In his last three starts, he has given up a combined three runs and nine hits across 19 innings. He also struck out 26 batters during that span, giving him a 30.4% strikeout rate for the season. That is almost exactly in line with his career 30.7% strikeout rate.

Sale already faced the Marlins once this season, giving up one run and recording eight strikeouts over seven innings. The Yankees are an even more favorable matchup, considering Aaron Judge (ribs), Giancarlo Stanton (calf) and Cody Bellinger (hamstring) are all out. Their depleted lineup has contributed to them having the third-highest strikeout rate in the majors. Sit back and enjoy the ride next week if you have Sale on your fantasy squad.

Logan Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers: vs. PIT, vs. MIN

Henderson has been limited to nine starts because of injuries, but he has been stellar when healthy. In his last outing against the Giants on Tuesday, he logged seven strikeouts over 5 2/3 scoreless innings. Along with his 2.66 ERA for the season is a nearly identical 2.67 xERA. He only has a 5.3% walk rate to go along with his 32.0% strikeout rate, which has helped him produce a 0.91 WHIP.

The Pirates and Twins are two dangerous teams that rank inside the top 10 in baseball in runs scored. However, the Pirates swing and miss a lot, posting the fifth-highest strikeout rate in the majors. The Twins’ lineup was dealt a major blow Wednesday with Byron Buxton (hip) landing on the IL, leaving them without their best hitter. Henderson still enters Week 20 with tremendous fantasy upside.

Troy Melton, Detroit Tigers: at SEA, at SF

The Tigers are trending toward being sellers at the trade deadline, meaning that Tarik Skubal could be on the move. Melton isn’t near his level, but he is quickly making a name for himself. Over 11 starts, he has a 1.75 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. His 3.26 xERA confirms that he is pitching well, and opponents only have a 36.2% hard-hit rate against him. If there is an area where he could improve, it’s his underwhelming 23.1% strikeout rate.

Melton could record a few extra strikeouts when he faces the Mariners, who have the ninth-highest strikeout rate in baseball. They have also scored the third-fewest runs. The Giants haven’t been much better, ranking 21st in runs scored. There is the potential that the Tigers shift around their rotation if Skubal is traded, but if Melton stays in his projected spot, he can continue to thrive.

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies: vs. WAS, vs. TOR

Nola is coming off a start against the Marlins in which he only gave up one run across 5 2/3 innings. That was the fourth time over his last five starts that he allowed three or fewer runs. He likely hasn’t been as bad as his 5.61 ERA would lead one to believe, but his 4.34 xERA confirms that he is not the pitcher that he was during his prime. One of the main reasons for his downfall is that he has allowed 2.1 HR/9 this year.

The Nationals have hit the most home runs in baseball, making them a nightmare matchup for Nola. Although he limited them to two runs over five innings in June, both runs came on homers. If he can’t keep men off base, his stat line could get ugly in a hurry. The Blue Jays don’t have much power and have struggled to score, but by the time Nola gets to them, the damage might have already been done to his ratios for the week. Stay away from starting him in the majority of formats.

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks: vs. SD, vs. LAD

Pfaadt began the season as a member of the Diamondbacks starting rotation, but was moved to the bullpen before eventually being sent down to the minors. Since being called back up, he has exclusively served as a starter. In six starts, he went 6-0 with a 1.85 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. The only negative for fantasy purposes is that he only had 18 strikeouts. That’s nothing new, given his career 21.1% strikeout rate.

The Padres are a favorable matchup, considering they have scored the sixth-fewest runs in baseball. He just faced them earlier in July, logging five shutout innings. He also faced the Dodgers this month, holding them to two runs across 5 1/3 innings. The strikeouts might not be there for Pfaadt during Week 20, but he is still a viable streaming option in 12-team and deeper leagues.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.