Cavalli is setup for a big week

The starting pitching landscape is a bit tricky right now with some of the biggest names in the league faltering down the stretch. Paul Skenes has been struggling and was even given extra rest between his last two starts. Max Fried (elbow) is back on the injured list for the Yankees. As we consider the ripple effects, we also have two-start pitchers to examine for Week 23. Let’s highlight five of them and discuss what their matchups might mean for their production.

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies: at SEA, at LAA

Wheeler is another ace who hasn’t been at his best down the stretch, allowing at least four earned runs in three of his last five starts. During that span, he posted a bloated 1.62 WHIP. That’s uncharacteristic for him, given his 1.01 WHIP for the season. He hasn’t finished a season with a WHIP higher than 1.08 since the shortened 2020 campaign. Even with his recent poor performance factored in, he has a 2.92 ERA and a 2.80 xERA for the season.

This looks like a great get-right spot for Wheeler. First up next week is the Mariners, who have posted the seventh-highest strikeout rate on their way to scoring the fewest runs in baseball. The Angels haven’t been much better, recording the second highest strikeout rate and scoring the seventh fewest runs. Wheeler has the potential to provide two dominant performances.

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals: vs. COL, vs. MIA

It doesn’t get much better than the last two starts that Cavalli provided fantasy managers. After posting 10 strikeouts over eight shutout innings against the Cubs, he followed it up with 11 strikeouts across six scoreless innings against the Rangers on Wednesday. In the two starts, he allowed a combined four hits and three walks. His WHIP is down to 1.22 for the season, which is a major improvement over the 1.48 WHIP that he had across 10 starts last year. His 3.22 ERA is accompanied by a 3.84 xERA, with his strikeout rate jumping from 18.3% last year to 27.0% this season.

Cavalli can keep things rolling next week with a home matchup against the Rockies on tap first. They have a .778 OPS at home, but only a .706 OPS on the road. The Marlins are a more dangerous team, but Cavalli has already had success against them this year. In two starts, he allowed four runs and posted 10 strikeouts over 10 2/3 innings. Deploy him with confidence.

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians: at LAA, vs. KC

Messick is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball, allowing two or fewer runs in each of his last eight starts. Over that span, he recorded a 1.99 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. During his breakout season, he has been a master at inducing weak contact. Opponents only have a 5.0% barrel rate and a 32.5% hard-hit rate against him. That has contributed to him giving up just 0.9 HR/9.

We already detailed how poorly the Angels have performed at the plate, so Messick is starting off Week 23 on a high note with a matchup against them. It’s also worth noting that the Angels have the 10th worst OPS against left-handed pitchers. Following them is the Royals, who rank inside the bottom 11 in baseball in OPS and runs scored. They lack power, posting a .151 ISO that ranks 23rd in the majors. There’s no reason to believe that either of these teams can put an end to his hot streak.

Keider Montero, Detroit Tigers: vs. TB, vs. LAD

Montero has quietly pitched well, posting a 3.30 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He recorded a 1.39 WHIP over 90 2/3 innings last year, so he has shown significant improvement in that department. The downside for fantasy purposes has been his lack of swing-and-miss stuff. His strikeout rate is only 16.6%, leaving him with 89 punchouts over 133 2/3 innings.

Considering how few strikeouts he provides, Montero must help in ERA and WHIP if he is going to provide fantasy value. That might be difficult to do next week when he faces the Rays and Dodgers. The Dodgers are second in baseball with their 111 wRC+ and the Rays aren’t far behind them with a 106 wRC+. They are two excellent contact hitting teams, placing inside the top five in terms of lowest strikeout rates. There is too much risk that comes with deploying Montero in fantasy for these two matchups.

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals: at TOR, at CLE

The veteran Lugo might be tiring as the season winds down. Over his last six starts, he has a 5.71 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. During that stretch, he provided only 22 strikeouts over 34 2/3 innings. Never one to miss a ton of bats, he has been even worse in that department this year with a 17.9% strikeout rate. His ERA already isn’t great at 4.71, but his xERA of 5.17 paints an even bleaker picture of his performance this season.

Normally, Lugo would be someone to avoid in fantasy. However, these two matchups might make fantasy managers consider streaming him. The Blue Jays have scored the third fewest runs in baseball, while the Guardians have scored the second fewest. However, Cleveland already roughed him up once this season, scoring four runs over four innings against him in May. Even if things go right for Lugo, his lack of strikeouts makes him a borderline fantasy option. If he has one bad outing, streaming him could be disastrous. The potential limited reward isn’t worth the risk, even in 12-team leagues.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.