Wed Nov 6 8:57am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Henry is setup for big Week 10
There are six teams on a bye this week, making it really tough to set lineups for many fantasy owners. So get those lineups set early. Make your waiver wire moves and decisions early, so you aren’t left hanging come Sunday. You don’t want to be late to the game and have no quality players left to start for Week 10. Get those lineups in order in a timely fashion. This could be a tough week.
With that said, here are my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
Packers running back Jamaal Williams has really surprise me this year. I was expected Aaron Jones to really get most of the work at running back with a new coaching staff around, finally becoming the focal point of the running game. Jones has gotten plenty of work, but Williams keeps hanging around and producing. He has receiving touchdowns four straight games. He also has at least three receptions (17 total) all four of those games. Williams has been a productive fantasy back and useful flex play in his current role with the Packers.
I’m really impressed by the Lions passing attack. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones have really taken their games to new levels while Danny Amendola has been a great fit for the slot. These three make it very tough for the opposition, providing something different at the receiver spot. Matthew Stafford has been the biggest benefactor of this, producing his best season in a while. He has five three-touchdown games and I don’t think that is a fluke. He is going to keep producing.
Lamar Jackson has fewer than 200-passing yards three of four games. His passing numbers might be down but that doesn’t mean his fantasy numbers are suffering. Jackson has 60-plus rushing yards five straight games, including two 100-yard games during that stretch. He just keeps getting it done, getting his points in many different ways. I would expect his production to continue to be high the rest of the way because of his dual threat ability. We are nine weeks into the season and Jackson is No. 1 overall in fantasy quarterback scoring.
I’m kind of anxious to see Bengals rookie quarterback Ryan Finley in action. He was pretty impressive in preseason action and the Bengals possess a pretty good passing attack in this offense. I’m not sure he is going to be a fantasy help at quarterback, but his insertion into the lineup might not be as big of a detriment as many are thinking. I’ll be watching him closely this weekend to see how he runs this offense.
I know Jameis Winston is a turnover machine and could be on his way out as the starter in Tampa after the season, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a help to fantasy teams. Winston is all the way up sixth overall in the fantasy quarterback rankings. He has multiple touchdowns five of six games and 300-yard games three straight. He has five total 300-yard games for the season in the Bucs pass-first offense. Winston is getting it done for fantasy teams despite the turnovers.
It sure looked like Evan Engram was going to have a breakout season but things haven’t gone his way since a fast start. He had 100-yard games two of his first three, but hasn’t topped 55 yards since Week 3. He also is battling some sort of foot injury now, which is another concern. We might have to wait one more season for that huge year from Engram. He certainly has the potential, but needs to be on the field for that to happen. He is still yet to have a full season and his best season as a pro came his rookie year.
Tevin Coleman is having a bit of an uneven season. He has some huge games, including a three-touchdown performance in Week 8. But he has fewer than 10 fantasy points two of his last three games. He isn't a sure fantasy thing every week despite playing in a good 49ers run-first offense. The issue is with his consistency. He just isn’t getting the work in the passing game to make up for down rushing numbers. Coleman has not topped two receptions in a game this year. He would look like a better fantasy back if his work in the passing game saw an uptick in production. Until that happens, there could be more inconsistency from Coleman.
As always, don’t forget to check out my weekly rankings here: Week 10 rankings.
News and Notes: The Jets signed linebacker Paul Worrilow on Tuesday. . . . .The Jaguars announced quarterback Nick Foles will return as the starter following the team’s bye this week. Rookie Gardner Minshew is heading back to the bench, making Foles the starter once again now that he is healthy. . . . .The Bills signed defensive tackle Corey Liuget on Tuesday. . . . .The Ravens added some more depth at receiver and special teams, signing receiver De'Anthony Thomas on Tuesday.
Derrick Henry, RB, Titans. Henry didn’t have his greatest rushing performance last week but still found the end zone and finished with 99 total yards. He had a season-high three catches in the game, which was good to see for his fantasy owners. Henry has been very good at finding the end zone all season, having scores six of nine games. He also has 75 or more rushing yards six of nine games. Henry should keep his solid play going this week against the Chiefs. Kansas City allows the third most fantasy points to running backs and rank 29th overall against the run. Henry is a legit No. 1 fantasy back in this matchup.
Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals. Murray had his most impressive showing of the season his last time out. He played a great 49ers defense and threw for 241 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover. It was great to see after two straight games without a score, especially against such a great defense. Murray is 10th overall in fantasy quarterback scoring as a rookie and that is with getting shut out of the end zone three times. He has been a consistent producer. He is setup to build on last week, getting a weak Bucs secondary in Week 10. Tampa allows the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks and are 31st against the pass.
Hunter Henry, TE, Chargers. Henry has returned to the lineup with a vengeance. He has at least four receptions his last four and 80-plus yards three of those games. He was targeted a season-high 10 times last week, having seven receptions for 84 yards. He has moved into must-start territory for fantasy teams. Things are looking good for him to have another big performance in Week 10, playing the Raiders. Oakland allows the fourth most fantasy points to tight ends and are dead last against the pass.
Mark Ingram, RB, Ravens. Ingram had his highest rushing total of the season last week, rushing 15 times for 115 yards. He also had two receptions for 29 yards, giving him 144 total yards in the game. He had three straight games with fewer than 55-rushing yards before that one, so his production was good to see for his fantasy owners. Ingram didn’t score last week but has touchdowns four of eight games. He has produced consistent fantasy numbers much of the year because of all his work and ability to find the end zone. Ingram plays the Bengals this week, a team he scored against just a few weeks back. Cincinnati allows the second most fantasy points to running backs and rank dead last against the run, allowing 178-rushing yards per game.
Michael Gallup, WR, Cowboys. Gallup has quieted some in recent weeks, having fewer than 50 yards three straight games. He did find the end zone last week, though, and has been targeted 17 times his last three. So he is getting the chances and is always capable of big things in this passing attack. Gallup also has touchdowns two of four games. The Vikings are likely to have shutdown corner Xavier Rhodes on Amari Cooper, giving Gallup favorable coverages. Plus, the Vikings allow the 10th most fantasy points to receivers. Gallup could see his reception and yardage totals rise in this one.
Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons. Freeman is yet to have a rushing touchdown this season and failed to top 90-rushing yards in any game. The only thing saving his fantasy season is work in the passing game. He has two eight-reception gams and at least three catches all but a game. But even with that said, it is a concern to see him have fewer than 40-rushing yards four of five games. He is kind of a risk when he plays a tough defense, which is the case this week. The Saints allow the fourth fewest fantasy points to running backs and are fourth overall against the run. Freeman could have his struggles in this matchup.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings. Cousins has really upped his game in recent weeks, having three-touchdown games three of four. He also has multiple scores four of give. It was quite the turnaround from earlier in the year. But he did have a game without a touchdown sprinkled in those great showings and has one or no scores four of nine games. He isn’t quite the sure thing just yet. He goes on the road this week to face a good Cowboys defense. Dallas allows the fifth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and allowed just seven passing touchdowns all year. Cousins might be a guy to sit this week despite his great play of late.
D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seahawks. Metcalf enjoyed his best game as a pro last week, so you are probably wondering why he makes this list. Well, he has a really tough matchup and has more than 70 yards in a game just twice all year. He can be a touchdown dependent player, and he might be shutout of the end zone this week. Metcalf plays the 49ers. San Francisco is first overall against the pass and allowed just seven passing touchdowns all year. Metcalf could come back down to earth after last week.
Todd Gurley, RB, Rams. Gurley has fewer than 65-rushing yards all but one game this year. And that game came in Week 1. And most disturbing is his lack of work in the passing game, having one or no receptions five of eight games. He has really been a fantasy bust to date. You see a matchup with the Steelers this week and think it might be a good one for Gurley, but Pittsburgh has been good defensively against the run. The Steelers allow the seventh most fantasy points to running backs. Gurley probably won’t have a breakout performance in this one.
Jarvis Landry, WR, Browns. Landry is getting more looks these days, which is encouraging. He has 23 targets his last two games. The problem is he has 11 receptions on those 23 targets. His fantasy numbers still aren’t great despite the added looks. He has just one touchdown this year and topped 70 yards just two times all year. Expect another mediocre performance in Week 10 against the Bills. Buffalo is third against the pass and allow just 184-passing yards per game.
Josh Allen, QB, Bills. Allen isn’t posting numbers that are off the charts but very consistent. He has multiple touchdowns four straight games. Allen also has multiple scores six of nine games. His yardage number aren’t always great but he gets his yards on the ground and scores, making him the 12th rated fantasy quarterback right now. He has value as a low-end No. 1. He should play well again this week against the Browns. Cleveland is allowing 26 points per game and the 13th most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Alex Erickson, WR, Bengals. Erickson has emerged as the top slot receiver for the Bengals. So even if A.J. Green returns this week, expect Erickson to still have a big role offensively. He has 14 receptions for 234 yards his last two games and at least four catches three straight. There is a rookie quarterback throwing to him this week, but that isn’t a huge concern because the Bengals should still throw often. They can’t run the ball, giving options in their passing game value despite the uncertainty at quarterback. Erickson gets the Ravens in Week 10, a team second against the run but just 26th against the pass.
J.D. McKissic, RB, Lions. McKissic has emerged as the pass-catching back for the Lions with Kerryon Johnson out. He has three receptions each of the last two games and at least two catches four straight. He also is getting a few chances to run the ball, having 29 or more rushing yards four games. So he has some value as a flex player for fantasy teams in the Lions pass-first offense. He could see his reception totals continue to rise going forward, especially this week against the Bears. Chicago has allowed the eighth most fantasy points to running backs.
O.J. Howard, TE, Bucs. Howard has been a disaster this year, doing next to nothing on the field while also having some injury issues. He missed the last two games with a hamstring injury but is coming back this week. He will return as the starter. If he is ever going to have that big week, this is the matchup for Howard. He gets a Cardinals team that has been horrific against the tight end. The Cardinals allow the most fantasy points to tight ends by a wide margin. Howard is worth a play this week, especially if you need a fill-in because of injury or bye weeks.
Jamison Crowder, WR, Jets. Crowder had his highest reception total of the season last week since Week 1, catching eight passes for 83 yards and a touchdown. He is the top weekly target in this Jets offense. He has at least four receptions five of eight games. He has value despite finding the end zone little. Crowder has a matchup this week to build on his showing from last week. He gets the Giants, a team that allows the third most fantasy points to receivers. Receivers have enjoyed big success against the Giants almost the entire season.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chargers/Raiders, Falcons/Saints, Cardinals/Bucs.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Bye Weeks: Broncos, Texans, Jaguars, Patriots, Eagles, Redskins.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at email@example.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
June 5th: Best Ball Strategy
Pro Football Focus rates Houston Texans left tackle Laremy Tunsil as the third-highest tackle in pass blocking among those with a minimum of 300 snaps, having only allowed 29 pressures in 656 pass-protection snaps, including the playoffs. His individual impact in both pass and run snaps combined for the highest win-contribution metric among left tackles by a slim margin. Houston's offensive-line production went from right near the bottom in 2018 to 19th overall last season with the help of Tunsil on the left side. The 25-year-old became the highest-paid left tackle in the league this offseason as a result. The franchise left tackle is tasked with protecting the franchise QB in Deshaun Watson long term.
San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle led the league in receiving yards per route run in 2019 with 3.3, among those that ran a minimum of 100 routes, per Next Gen Stats. He recorded 75.2 receiving yards per game over 14 games, which was the second-highest rate among qualified tight ends, and the fourth-best catch percentage (79.4). But while Kittle is one of the best receiving tight ends in the game, he's also one of the best blocking tight ends in the NFL. The 26-year-old has 2,430 yards and 10 touchdowns in the last two seasons, and he played injured for most of the 2019 campaign. With better health an improved receiving corps around him in 2020, it's scary to think that Kittle could do even more damage. Kittle is in consideration as the top fantasy tight end alongside Travis Kelce.
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins was NFL Network's Cynthia Frelund's highest-rated on- and off-ball receiver in 2019. He ranked third in receiving first downs with 68 (behind just Michael Thomas and Julio Jones). Half of those first downs came on second down (30), and 19 of them were earned on second-and-seven-plus yards, which was the most in the NFL. Hopkins moved from Houston to Arizona this offseason and should be targeted like a true No. 1 wideout by Kyler Murray in the team's spread offense. Competing for targets with Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk might drop Hopkins' elite ceiling just a tad, but he's still a strong WR1 candidate worth considering at the end of Round 1/beginning of Round 2.
New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas set an NFL record with 149 catches in 2019, 91 of which netted the team a first down (most in the NFL), including nine touchdowns. Next Gen Stats shows that 97 of his catches came on short passes, which was 35 more than any other receiver. Thomas also caught 68.3 percent of his targets of 10-plus air yards, which was the best rate in the NFL among those with a minimum of 25 such targets. When Thomas wasn't targeted, he ranked third last year in his ability to attract an opponent's best and/or multiple defensive backs. The 27-year-old typically doesn't have massive weekly performances, but he sees a ton of looks from Drew Brees and is the safest receiver option you can find in fantasy. Thomas is worth considering as a top-five fantasy pick as the top wideout off the board in the first round.
Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott was ranked ahead of Saquon Barkley, Miles Sanders, and Adrian Peterson in a recent Sports Illustrated poll, a list compiled with the assistance of NFL scouts, ranking the best backs in the NFC East. The former Buckeye had one of his best seasons to date in 2019 by finishing with 1,357 yards and 12 touchdowns off of 301 touches. He also added 54 catches and two additional scores while also ranking sixth in YAC. With the 24-year-old also rumored to be more involved in the team's passing attack under new head coach Mike McCarthy, his stock appears higher than ever. While he is slotted behind Barkley in most fantasy rankings, a case can be easily made for Elliott to get picked up as the No. 2 overall draft choice behind Christian McCaffrey in fantasy drafts heading into the 2020 campaign.
Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey led the NFL in scrimmage yards with 2,392 last year, with the next closest player (Ezekiel Elliott) at 1,777 yards. McCaffrey played 93.4 percent of Carolina's offensive snaps, which was the highest in the league among running backs. His 1,262 scrimmage yards on first down were the most for any player by almost 200 yards -- Derrick Henry came in second at 1,098 -- and he also added nine total first-down touchdowns. McCaffrey averaged 5.0 yards per rush inside the tackles, which was second in the NFL among those with a minimum of 75 inside runs. New head coach Matt Rhule hinted that McCaffrey might not be used as much this year, but even if that's true, the running back is still head and shoulders above the competition because of his capabilities as both a runner and receiver. He should be the first overall pick in all fantasy leagues.
Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry earned more rushing first downs on first down (31) than any other running back in the league last season. Henry also had nine rushing touchdowns on first down (second-most in the NFL) and another on a pass. His yards per rush after contact of 4.2 was the best in the league among those with a minimum of 100 rushes, including the playoffs, according to Pro Football Focus. In a run-first offense, Henry was the key cog in Tennessee's machine, helping them to an AFC Championship appearance. The 26-year-old led the league in rushing attempts (303), rushing yards (1,540), rushing TDs (16) and rushing yards per game (102.7). While Henry is an obvious RB1, his lack of involvement in the passing game can make him volatile on a weekly basis.
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson won the 2019 NFL MVP with a blend of exceptional skills, the right play-calling and a supporting cast that helped make the most of his attributes. The second-year quarterback threw for 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions on play-action passes last season, which was the best TD-to-interception ratio in the league, per Next Gen Stats. Jackson also had 24 touchdown passes and only two picks against the blitz, which was 10 more TD tosses against the blitz than any other QB in the league. He's only 23 years old and already set the single-season rushing record for quarterbacks as well. While it might be tough for Jackson to top his 2019 numbers, his elite dual-threat abilities put him in contention with Patrick Mahomes as fantasy's top QB.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan said he's done field work with running back Todd Gurley II "a handful of times" and came away "really impressed" with his new running back. The two have spent time together in recent weeks in Southern California. The Falcons are hoping Gurley, the 2017 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, can help boost a running game that ranked 30th in the league last year with 85.1 rushing yards per game. "I think he's going to be an awesome fit for us," Ryan said of Gurley. "And I'm glad we have him." Ryan's workouts have also included receivers Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage, tight ends Hayden Hurst and Jaeden Graham and fullback Keith Smith. Knee issues have slowed Gurley in recent seasons, but he still remains an effective back when on the field and could bounce back to RB1 status in his new home in Atlanta.
New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones held up quite well under pressure behind a porous offensive line in his rookie season. His numbers under pressure were comparable to Falcons QB Matt Ryan, which is incredibly impressive. Jones had an 8:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and nearly 1,000 passing yards while under pressure in 2019. The 23-year-old from Duke also posted two of the top-10 single performances by a quarterback last year, which demonstrates the kind of upside he possesses heading into his first full season as the Giants starter under center. With an excellent offensive cast on his side, Jones has a bright NFL future, in 2020 and beyond. Draft him as a high-end QB2 with QB1 upside.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen was the only player on NFL.com's Nick Shook's list of top-10 QBs under pressure to have a negative completion percentage above expectation in 2019, but his passer rating under pressure (80) and TD-to-interception ratio of 5:2 land him at No. 9. He took three and a half seconds on average to get rid of the football when under pressure, something he faced 125 times while completing 87 passes. Allen's legs give him considerable fantasy upside at his position, but if he can improve his decision-making and accuracy down the field, he has realistic top-five upside in 2020. Gaining wide receiver Stefon Diggs as his new No. 1 target certainly won't hurt.
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott completed exactly the amount of pressured passes as was expected in 2019, but he also attempted the third-most pressured passes (144) of anyone on NFL.com's Nick Shook's list of top-10 QBs under pressure. He's also one of just two passers on the list to break 1,000 passing yards under pressure. Prescott's 7:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio while under pressure looks pretty good. The young passer is tied with Philip Rivers for the fourth-most TD passes completed under pressure since 2016, with 19. He also has the highest single-season completion percentage above expectation under pressure in a single season since 2016. With or without a long-term contract extension in Dallas this summer, Prescott will likely be the third QB off the board in fantasy drafts behind Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes.
Nobody in the NFL faced more pressures last season than Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan with 216. And despite all that pressure, he still managed to post a passer rating under pressure that was more than 12 points higher than the league average of 66.2. Ryan's passer rating under pressure of 87.9 is the highest among QBs in every season combined since 2016. Only Tom Brady has thrown more touchdown passes while under pressure (30) than Ryan (27) since 2016. His 104.9 passer rating from 2016 sits third in the top-five passer ratings under pressure since 2016. Ryan also tied for the third-most TD passes thrown under pressure in a single season with nine in 2018. If Atlanta's offensive line can actually give him more time to throw, the consistent 35-year-old should have top-five QB1 upside in 2020.
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford played in just eight games last season because of injury, but he remained consistent under pressure when he was on the field. His passer rating of 84.2 while under pressure and his plus-2.2 percent completion rate above expectation are impressive considering that he threw more than 30 percent of his under-pressure throws into tight windows. Stafford's combined passer rating under pressure of 83.8 is the third-best mark of any qualified quarterback since 2016, trailing just Matt Ryan and Alex Smith. The 32-year-old was on pace for a great finish in 2019 if he hadn't gotten hurt, and many expect him to pick up right where he left off in 2020. Stafford is a borderline QB1 and makes for a great fantasy backup.
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has mostly been successful in the NFL when pressured. While he doesn't face as much pressure as he once did, Cousins remains a top-five QB when under duress. His passer rating (91.5) was fifth-best in 2019, his completion percentage under pressure (58.1) was fourth-best and his completion percentage above expectation (plus-3.8) was in the top five. The 31-year-old is often overshadowed by some of the league's stars at the position, but he also lost his No. 1 receiver in Stefon Diggs and his offensive coordinator in Kevin Stefanski. He could take a step back in 2020 in an offense that will lean heavily on the running game. Target Cousins as a midrange QB2 with a low ceiling.
Not only did Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson set a new single-season rushing record for QBs in 2019, but he also ranked No. 4 on NFL.com's Nick Shook's list of best quarterbacks under pressure. He had a touchdown-to-interception ratio under pressure of 8:3, which means almost a quarter (22 percent) of his 36 touchdown passes came while under pressure. Jackson had less than 470 passing yards under pressure while also completing 49.2 percent of his 65 pressured attempts. His dual-threat abilities as a passer and runner are what made Baltimore's offense so explosive in 2019, and will for years to come. Jackson is an explosive runner and thrives under pressure as a passer. What else do you want as the No. 1 fantasy QB?
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr posted the third-best passer rating (103.7) while under pressure in 2019, and his completion percentage of 66.7 under pressure was the best of any qualifying signal-caller in the league last year. Carr's completion percentage above expectation of plus-5.9 had to do with the fact that he targeted open receivers at a rate of 56.9 percent, which was tops in the NFL. There are a lot of knocks on Carr as a passer and his leash might be short in 2020 with Marcus Mariota behind him, but he did find open receivers in the face of pressure last year with regularity. Not many fantasy owners will be targeting him, even as a QB2, but Carr could surprise and hold off Mariota with some new weapons that the Raiders gave him in the draft, mainly wide receiver Henry Ruggs III.
New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees' 105.9 passer rating under pressure in 2019 is the second-best mark in a single season since 2016, trailing only Ryan Tannehill from last season. The future Hall of Famer found success under pressure by getting rid of the ball quickly (3.01 second on average per pressured throw) to nearby targets, averaging 9.6 air yards per pressured attempt. Brees led all quarterbacks on NFL.com's Nick Shook's list with a 41.7 percent success rate on pressured pass attempts. While the 41-year-old is still good despite his age and now has Emmanuel Sanders to lean on, he isn't taking as many deep shots as he once did. Brees' ceiling just isn't as high as it once was, making him more of a low-end QB1 in what will likely be his final season.
New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones flashed big potential in his rookie season but was plagued by one key issue: He led the NFL with 18 fumbles. Limiting turnovers will be key if Jones is to take the next step in his development, and he has been working since the season ended with David Cutcliffe, his coach at Duke. If Jones can hold onto the ball, he has big upside for fantasy owners. He averaged 233 yards per game last season and threw 24 touchdowns in 13 games (12 starts). He is currently the 13th QB off the board but has the upside to finish as a top-10 fantasy passer with the weapons he has in New York.
Although Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill didn't play a full season in 2019, NFL.com's Nick Shook has him ranked No. 1 on the list of the top-10 QBs under pressure last season. The former first-round pick had the only passer rating above 110 in the league while being pressured in the pocket among those with a minimum of 250 total pass attempts. Tannehill also did so while targeting receivers in tight windows on 23.9 percent of such attempts. He became the only qualified passer to average 10-plus yards per attempt under pressure in a season since 2016. It all helped Tannehill become the NFL Comeback Player of the Year while leading his team to the AFC Championship. Tannehill has been efficient as a passer, but the problem is that the Titans don't throw the rock enough to make him anything more than a passable fantasy backup.