Wed Nov 6 8:57am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Henry is setup for big Week 10
There are six teams on a bye this week, making it really tough to set lineups for many fantasy owners. So get those lineups set early. Make your waiver wire moves and decisions early, so you aren’t left hanging come Sunday. You don’t want to be late to the game and have no quality players left to start for Week 10. Get those lineups in order in a timely fashion. This could be a tough week.
With that said, here are my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
Packers running back Jamaal Williams has really surprise me this year. I was expected Aaron Jones to really get most of the work at running back with a new coaching staff around, finally becoming the focal point of the running game. Jones has gotten plenty of work, but Williams keeps hanging around and producing. He has receiving touchdowns four straight games. He also has at least three receptions (17 total) all four of those games. Williams has been a productive fantasy back and useful flex play in his current role with the Packers.
I’m really impressed by the Lions passing attack. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones have really taken their games to new levels while Danny Amendola has been a great fit for the slot. These three make it very tough for the opposition, providing something different at the receiver spot. Matthew Stafford has been the biggest benefactor of this, producing his best season in a while. He has five three-touchdown games and I don’t think that is a fluke. He is going to keep producing.
Lamar Jackson has fewer than 200-passing yards three of four games. His passing numbers might be down but that doesn’t mean his fantasy numbers are suffering. Jackson has 60-plus rushing yards five straight games, including two 100-yard games during that stretch. He just keeps getting it done, getting his points in many different ways. I would expect his production to continue to be high the rest of the way because of his dual threat ability. We are nine weeks into the season and Jackson is No. 1 overall in fantasy quarterback scoring.
I’m kind of anxious to see Bengals rookie quarterback Ryan Finley in action. He was pretty impressive in preseason action and the Bengals possess a pretty good passing attack in this offense. I’m not sure he is going to be a fantasy help at quarterback, but his insertion into the lineup might not be as big of a detriment as many are thinking. I’ll be watching him closely this weekend to see how he runs this offense.
I know Jameis Winston is a turnover machine and could be on his way out as the starter in Tampa after the season, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a help to fantasy teams. Winston is all the way up sixth overall in the fantasy quarterback rankings. He has multiple touchdowns five of six games and 300-yard games three straight. He has five total 300-yard games for the season in the Bucs pass-first offense. Winston is getting it done for fantasy teams despite the turnovers.
It sure looked like Evan Engram was going to have a breakout season but things haven’t gone his way since a fast start. He had 100-yard games two of his first three, but hasn’t topped 55 yards since Week 3. He also is battling some sort of foot injury now, which is another concern. We might have to wait one more season for that huge year from Engram. He certainly has the potential, but needs to be on the field for that to happen. He is still yet to have a full season and his best season as a pro came his rookie year.
Tevin Coleman is having a bit of an uneven season. He has some huge games, including a three-touchdown performance in Week 8. But he has fewer than 10 fantasy points two of his last three games. He isn't a sure fantasy thing every week despite playing in a good 49ers run-first offense. The issue is with his consistency. He just isn’t getting the work in the passing game to make up for down rushing numbers. Coleman has not topped two receptions in a game this year. He would look like a better fantasy back if his work in the passing game saw an uptick in production. Until that happens, there could be more inconsistency from Coleman.
As always, don’t forget to check out my weekly rankings here: Week 10 rankings.
News and Notes: The Jets signed linebacker Paul Worrilow on Tuesday. . . . .The Jaguars announced quarterback Nick Foles will return as the starter following the team’s bye this week. Rookie Gardner Minshew is heading back to the bench, making Foles the starter once again now that he is healthy. . . . .The Bills signed defensive tackle Corey Liuget on Tuesday. . . . .The Ravens added some more depth at receiver and special teams, signing receiver De'Anthony Thomas on Tuesday.
Derrick Henry, RB, Titans. Henry didn’t have his greatest rushing performance last week but still found the end zone and finished with 99 total yards. He had a season-high three catches in the game, which was good to see for his fantasy owners. Henry has been very good at finding the end zone all season, having scores six of nine games. He also has 75 or more rushing yards six of nine games. Henry should keep his solid play going this week against the Chiefs. Kansas City allows the third most fantasy points to running backs and rank 29th overall against the run. Henry is a legit No. 1 fantasy back in this matchup.
Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals. Murray had his most impressive showing of the season his last time out. He played a great 49ers defense and threw for 241 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover. It was great to see after two straight games without a score, especially against such a great defense. Murray is 10th overall in fantasy quarterback scoring as a rookie and that is with getting shut out of the end zone three times. He has been a consistent producer. He is setup to build on last week, getting a weak Bucs secondary in Week 10. Tampa allows the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks and are 31st against the pass.
Hunter Henry, TE, Chargers. Henry has returned to the lineup with a vengeance. He has at least four receptions his last four and 80-plus yards three of those games. He was targeted a season-high 10 times last week, having seven receptions for 84 yards. He has moved into must-start territory for fantasy teams. Things are looking good for him to have another big performance in Week 10, playing the Raiders. Oakland allows the fourth most fantasy points to tight ends and are dead last against the pass.
Mark Ingram, RB, Ravens. Ingram had his highest rushing total of the season last week, rushing 15 times for 115 yards. He also had two receptions for 29 yards, giving him 144 total yards in the game. He had three straight games with fewer than 55-rushing yards before that one, so his production was good to see for his fantasy owners. Ingram didn’t score last week but has touchdowns four of eight games. He has produced consistent fantasy numbers much of the year because of all his work and ability to find the end zone. Ingram plays the Bengals this week, a team he scored against just a few weeks back. Cincinnati allows the second most fantasy points to running backs and rank dead last against the run, allowing 178-rushing yards per game.
Michael Gallup, WR, Cowboys. Gallup has quieted some in recent weeks, having fewer than 50 yards three straight games. He did find the end zone last week, though, and has been targeted 17 times his last three. So he is getting the chances and is always capable of big things in this passing attack. Gallup also has touchdowns two of four games. The Vikings are likely to have shutdown corner Xavier Rhodes on Amari Cooper, giving Gallup favorable coverages. Plus, the Vikings allow the 10th most fantasy points to receivers. Gallup could see his reception and yardage totals rise in this one.
Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons. Freeman is yet to have a rushing touchdown this season and failed to top 90-rushing yards in any game. The only thing saving his fantasy season is work in the passing game. He has two eight-reception gams and at least three catches all but a game. But even with that said, it is a concern to see him have fewer than 40-rushing yards four of five games. He is kind of a risk when he plays a tough defense, which is the case this week. The Saints allow the fourth fewest fantasy points to running backs and are fourth overall against the run. Freeman could have his struggles in this matchup.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings. Cousins has really upped his game in recent weeks, having three-touchdown games three of four. He also has multiple scores four of give. It was quite the turnaround from earlier in the year. But he did have a game without a touchdown sprinkled in those great showings and has one or no scores four of nine games. He isn’t quite the sure thing just yet. He goes on the road this week to face a good Cowboys defense. Dallas allows the fifth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and allowed just seven passing touchdowns all year. Cousins might be a guy to sit this week despite his great play of late.
D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seahawks. Metcalf enjoyed his best game as a pro last week, so you are probably wondering why he makes this list. Well, he has a really tough matchup and has more than 70 yards in a game just twice all year. He can be a touchdown dependent player, and he might be shutout of the end zone this week. Metcalf plays the 49ers. San Francisco is first overall against the pass and allowed just seven passing touchdowns all year. Metcalf could come back down to earth after last week.
Todd Gurley, RB, Rams. Gurley has fewer than 65-rushing yards all but one game this year. And that game came in Week 1. And most disturbing is his lack of work in the passing game, having one or no receptions five of eight games. He has really been a fantasy bust to date. You see a matchup with the Steelers this week and think it might be a good one for Gurley, but Pittsburgh has been good defensively against the run. The Steelers allow the seventh most fantasy points to running backs. Gurley probably won’t have a breakout performance in this one.
Jarvis Landry, WR, Browns. Landry is getting more looks these days, which is encouraging. He has 23 targets his last two games. The problem is he has 11 receptions on those 23 targets. His fantasy numbers still aren’t great despite the added looks. He has just one touchdown this year and topped 70 yards just two times all year. Expect another mediocre performance in Week 10 against the Bills. Buffalo is third against the pass and allow just 184-passing yards per game.
Josh Allen, QB, Bills. Allen isn’t posting numbers that are off the charts but very consistent. He has multiple touchdowns four straight games. Allen also has multiple scores six of nine games. His yardage number aren’t always great but he gets his yards on the ground and scores, making him the 12th rated fantasy quarterback right now. He has value as a low-end No. 1. He should play well again this week against the Browns. Cleveland is allowing 26 points per game and the 13th most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Alex Erickson, WR, Bengals. Erickson has emerged as the top slot receiver for the Bengals. So even if A.J. Green returns this week, expect Erickson to still have a big role offensively. He has 14 receptions for 234 yards his last two games and at least four catches three straight. There is a rookie quarterback throwing to him this week, but that isn’t a huge concern because the Bengals should still throw often. They can’t run the ball, giving options in their passing game value despite the uncertainty at quarterback. Erickson gets the Ravens in Week 10, a team second against the run but just 26th against the pass.
J.D. McKissic, RB, Lions. McKissic has emerged as the pass-catching back for the Lions with Kerryon Johnson out. He has three receptions each of the last two games and at least two catches four straight. He also is getting a few chances to run the ball, having 29 or more rushing yards four games. So he has some value as a flex player for fantasy teams in the Lions pass-first offense. He could see his reception totals continue to rise going forward, especially this week against the Bears. Chicago has allowed the eighth most fantasy points to running backs.
O.J. Howard, TE, Bucs. Howard has been a disaster this year, doing next to nothing on the field while also having some injury issues. He missed the last two games with a hamstring injury but is coming back this week. He will return as the starter. If he is ever going to have that big week, this is the matchup for Howard. He gets a Cardinals team that has been horrific against the tight end. The Cardinals allow the most fantasy points to tight ends by a wide margin. Howard is worth a play this week, especially if you need a fill-in because of injury or bye weeks.
Jamison Crowder, WR, Jets. Crowder had his highest reception total of the season last week since Week 1, catching eight passes for 83 yards and a touchdown. He is the top weekly target in this Jets offense. He has at least four receptions five of eight games. He has value despite finding the end zone little. Crowder has a matchup this week to build on his showing from last week. He gets the Giants, a team that allows the third most fantasy points to receivers. Receivers have enjoyed big success against the Giants almost the entire season.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chargers/Raiders, Falcons/Saints, Cardinals/Bucs.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Bye Weeks: Broncos, Texans, Jaguars, Patriots, Eagles, Redskins.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at email@example.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Chicago Bears running back David Montgomery finished with 14 carries for only 31 yards during the loss to the Rams on Sunday night. He also managed to catch a single pass for 19 yards but was outperformed in all areas by Tarik Cohen, who finished with more receiving and rushing yards, while also recording a touchdown. With this one in the books, Montgomery, who was nursing an ankle issue coming into this one, will hopefully be 100 percent for a showdown with the Giants in Week 12.
Updating previous reports, Indianapolis Colts RB Marlon Mack (hand) is not expected to play in Week 12 Thursday, Nov. 21. He'll see a specialist this week to figure out how long he'll be out.
Fantasy Spin: Jordan Wilkins could be the featured back against the Houston Texans. It's not a good matchup, but Wilkins is at least worth a flex play.
Chicago Bears running back Tarik Cohen outplayed David Montgomery on Sunday night in the loss to the Rams. Cohen rushed for 39 yards, eight more than Montgomery, on nine attempts in addition to five receptions for 35 yards and a touchdown. This was arguably the most productive outing of the year for the 24-year-old, who has now scored in his last two games. He likely will return to yielding touches to Montgomery on a week-to-week basis moving ahead, but he still possesses PPR appeal in deeper formats due to his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. He will look to keep it going against the Giants at home in Week 12.
Chicago Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky struggled on Sunday night in the loss to the Rams, finishing with 190 yards, a touchdown, and a pick on 24-for-43 passing. The 25-year-old, who threw three touchdowns the week before against the Lions, suffered a hip injury early in this one but continued to play before finally shutting it down late in the fourth quarter. Trubisky will likely take it easy during practice throughout the week, with his status for Week 12 against the visiting New York Giants in limbo at the moment.
New England Patriots TE Benjamin Watson caught three of his four targets for 52 yards in Week 11 versus the Philadelphia Eagles.
Fantasy Spin: The 52 yards nearly doubled his previous season high. Watson is bringing more fantasy relevancy to the position than Matt LaCosse or Ryan Izzo did, but the 38-year-old is still not an advisable streamer and probably won't be at any point this season.
New England Patriots WR Mohamed Sanu hauled in two of his four targets for four yards and added an eight-yard run on his only rushing attempt in Week 11 against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Fantasy Spin: It's definitely not what fantasy owners were looking for after he posted a 10-81-1 line in his last game before the team's Week 10 bye. Then again, New England's offense wasn't exactly clicking on all cylinders against an inspired Eagles' defense. Sanu should be considered a low-end WR3 or WR4 option in Week 12 versus the Dallas Cowboys.
Philadelphia Eagles WR Nelson Agholor had four receptions for 40 yards against the New England Patriots on Sunday, Nov. 17.
Fantasy Spin: With Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson out, Agholor was the de facto WR1 for Carson Wentz -- his nine targeted balls were more than Jordan Matthews, Mack Hollins and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside combined. He made some plays but again left some on the field, and he had a chance to tie the game late on a tough ball that he couldn't haul in. Agholor is a WR4 when Jeffery is healthy and could bump up to a WR3 when he's not.
New England Patriots WR Julian Edelman hauled in five of his 10 targets for 53 yards in Week 11 against the Philadelphia Eagles. He also threw for a 15-yard touchdown on his only pass attempt.
Fantasy Spin: The receiving yardage total was his lowest since Week 7, but offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels helped saved his fantasy day by dialing up a trick play for the former college quarterback to throw a touchdown pass that ultimately led to Phillip Dorsett getting hurt. With at least 10 targets in five consecutive contests and at least five receptions in six straight, Edelman is a rock-solid WR2 with WR1 upside. Expect similar production in Week 12 versus the Dallas Cowboys.
New England Patriots RB James White carried five times for 20 yards and caught four of his seven targets for 16 yards in Week 11 versus the Philadelphia Eagles.
Fantasy Spin: Considering how good the Eagles' rush defense is, this should have been a James White game. However, it was a bad day for most of the Patriots' offense as Philadelphia played one of its better games on defense. Amazingly, White has scored only two touchdowns in 2019 after erupting for a career-high 12 last year. He'll be a low-end RB2 play at best in Week 12 against the Dallas Cowboys.
Philadelphia Eagles TE Dallas Goedert caught three passes for 36 yards and a touchdown in Week 11 against the New England Patriots.
Fantasy Spin: Goedert's TD was originally ruled an interception before being overturned on review. That gives him three TDs in his last four games, though with so many players missing it seemed like a day to get Goedert more involved. Still, his propensity for touchdowns does give him some fringe TE1 value.
New England Patriots QB Tom Brady went 26-of-47 for 216 with no touchdowns and no interceptions in Week 11 versus the Philadelphia Eagles.
Fantasy Spin: Brady did not look particularly good in this one, although the Eagles' defense did their part to make it tough on him. Still, he uncharacteristically missed throws he usually makes. His biggest chunk play was on a 30-yard screen pass in which Rex Burkhead did most of the work. Week 11 marked the third time this season in which he failed to throw for a score and the second one in which he did not account for one. He'll be in the QB2 conversation in Week 12 against the Dallas Cowboys.
New England Patriots RB Sony Michel rushed for 33 yards on 10 carries and added two receptions for 11 yards in Week 11 against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Fantasy Spin: Same story, different week for his fantasy owners. Michel has been a touchdown-dependent RB2 for most of the season, but he has been nearly unusable whenever Rex Burkhead has been active. Owners should consider other alternatives in Week 12 when the Patriots host the Dallas Cowboys.
Philadelphia Eagles TE Zach Ertz logged nine catches for 94 yards during the team's Week 11 loss to the New England Patriots.
Fantasy Spin: After some lean weeks Ertz has bounced back with a vengeance, posting consecutive nine-catch outings and easily leading the team with 94 receiving yards against the Pats. He's a must-start TE1 each and every week.
Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz completed 20 of 40 passes for 214 yards and a touchdown against the New England Patriots in Week 11.
Fantasy Spin: Yes, the Pats might have the NFL's toughest defense. Yes, the Eagles were missing some key weapons. And yet it's hard not to lay some blame at the feet of Wentz, who has now passed for fewer than 250 yards and exactly one TD in five of his last six games. Bottom line, those aren't QB1 numbers, and it seems unlikely he'll get healthy against a rested Seahawks club in Week 12.
Chicago Bears WR Anthony Miller caught six passes for 54 yards against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, Nov. 17.
Fantasy Spin: Six receptions were a season high for Miller, who has now topped 50 yards receiving four times in his last six games. While that qualifies as encouraging, Miller has no TDs this year and hasn't reached the 70-yard plateau. He's a fringe bench option in large leagues.
Cincinnati Bengals LB Nick Vigil finished with 12 tackles (six solo) in Week 11 versus the Oakland Raiders.
Chicago Bears LB Roquan Smith was credited with 11 tackles (six solo) against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 11.
Oakland Raiders TE Darren Waller hauled in five of his team-high seven targets for 78 yards in Week 11 against the Cincinnati Bengals. He also lost two yards on an end-around.
Fantasy Spin: Although it's hard for owners to be too upset with Waller considering the return on investment they've already realized, he had not topped three catches or 52 yards in three straight before this outburst. The breakout star is not exactly the blame, however, as the Raiders typically enjoyed positive game script and become run-heavy over that stretch. With tight end being the black hole it is in fantasy, owners should feel good about continuing to start him moving forward, including Week 12 against the New York Jets.
Chicago Bears WR Taylor Gabriel tallied seven receptions for 57 yards against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, Nov. 17.
Fantasy Spin: Gabriel caught half of his 14 targets and has been a decent secondary producer behind Allen Robinson. He hasn't topped 75 yards in a game, however, and Chicago's passing attack isn't exactly providing opponents with many sleepless nights. Gabriel has some deep-league value, but in standard formats you should be able to do better.
Chicago Bears WR Allen Robinson had four receptions for 15 yards in the club's Week 11 loss to the Los Angeles Rams.
Fantasy Spin: Robinson seemed to frequently attract the attention of Jalen Ramsey in coverage, and Chicago's top wideout finished with less than 20 yards receiving for the second time in three weeks. While Robinson remains the top Bears receiver to own, he's a risky WR3 at this point.