RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 12

Fri Nov 26 10:20am ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

Moore is quickly gaining value

Two teams will be on a bye in Week 12 and there were three games on Thursday, so we’ll have fewer options to choose from for the main Sunday-Monday DFS slate. With that in mind, here are some players to consider for your entries, as well as a few to potentially avoid.

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady, TB at IND ($7,600): The Buccaneers routed the Giants on Monday Night Football and Brady threw for 307 yards and two touchdowns along the way. It marked his six straight multi-touchdown game, and while he also threw an interception, it wasn’t entirely his fault since the ball bounced off of the hands of wide receiver Mike Evans. Brady’s touchdown prowess could be big for this matchup given that the Colts have allowed a league-high 25 touchdowns through the air.

Cam Newton, CAR at MIA ($5,800): Newton’s first start since returning to the Panthers brought a valuable stat line last week against Washington. While he threw for a modest 189 yards, he did have two touchdown passes. He also turned 10 carries into 46 yards and a touchdown. His salary is climbing, but with his rushing upside, he could still end up being a bargain.

Player to Avoid

Ryan Tannehill, TEN at NE ($6,200): Tannehill was bad in an embarrassing loss to the Texans in Week 11. Yes, he threw for 323 yards and a touchdown. However, he was also picked off four times. The Titans offense isn’t nearly as potent with Derrick Henry (foot) and Julio Jones (hamstring) on IR, so they could have trouble producing points against a Patriots team that has allowed just 16.1 points per game. They also have also hauled in a league-high 18 interceptions.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey, CAR at MIA ($8,700): McCaffrey didn’t receive a ton of carries last week, but he did turn his 10 into 59 yards. He was also his potent self in the passing game, catching seven of eight targets for 60 yards and a touchdown. He’s posted at least 100 total yards in all three games since being activated off IR, leaving him with one of the highest floors of any running back included in this slate.

Rex Burkhead, HOU vs. NYJ ($4,000): If you’re looking to take a chance on a running back with a really cheap salary in tournament play, Burkhead is someone to consider. He had a season-high 18 carries last week, although he only turned them into 40 yards. Still, the workload was significant. He could remain busy with the team waiving Phillip Lindsay this week. This matchup also works in his favor given that the Jets have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game in the league.

Player to Avoid

Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. PHI ($6,800): Coming out of the Giants bye week, Barkley was able to make his return against the Buccaneers. He disappointed, though, with just 56 total yards. The Giants offense has been terrible this season and is in a state of flux after firing offensive coordinator Jason Garrett on Tuesday. Better days could be coming if they open up the playbook, but it might be best to take a wait-and-see approach for at least the first week of the post-Garrett era.

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans, TB at IND ($7,200): Evans hauled in yet another touchdown pass in Week 11, giving him one score in each of the last four games. He already has 10 touchdown receptions for the season, following the 13 that he had in 2020. With how often the Colts have been allowing passing touchdowns, a Brady/Evans stack could prove to be fruitful, despite their hefty salaries.

Elijah Moore, NYJ at HOU ($5,700): Moore toasted the Dolphins last week, catching eight of 11 targets for 141 yards and a touchdown. He did that with Joe Flacco starting at quarterback, but he’ll be without Flacco in Week 12 since he’s been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Fellow quarterback Mike White tested positive for COVID-19, which means Zach Wilson (knee) will like start. As bad as he’s been, Moore’s featured roll within the Jets offense should leave him with enough volume to potentially provide value.

Player to Avoid

Courtland Sutton, DEN vs. LAC ($5,800): Sutton was quiet heading into the Broncos’ Week 11 bye, totaling just five receptions for 78 yards over his previous three games. He didn’t get more than four targets in any of those games. His decline in production has coincided with the return of Jerry Jeudy, who has 16 receptions for 156 yards during that same span. The Chargers have only allowed five touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season, so when you combine that with Sutton’s limited workload recently, his upside could be very limited.

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts, ATL at JAX ($5,900): The Patriots’ defense normally does a good job of eliminating the opposing offenses top skill player. In Week 11, that meant holding Pitts to three receptions for 29 yards. This should be a much easier matchup against the Jaguars, who have allowed the eighth-most points per game (26.2) in the league. Wide receiver Calvin Ridley (personal) remains out, which means Pitts should remain one of Matt Ryan’s top pass catchers.

Evan Engram, NYG vs. PHI ($3,700): Engram hauled in touchdown passes in back-to-back games for the Giants heading into their bye, providing a glimmer of hope to an otherwise underwhelming season. He couldn’t build on it, though, catching two of five targets for 12 yards in Week 11. If there was ever a week to take a chance on him in tournament play, though, this might be it. The Eagles have been torched by opposing tight ends, allowing the most receptions (81), receiving yards (811) and touchdowns (nine) to the position in the league.

Player to Avoid

Tyler Higbee, LAR at GB ($4,200): The Rams certainly need their Week 11 bye to regroup. Losing wide receiver Robert Woods (knee) for the season just before their Week 10 matchup with the 49ers dealt a major blow to their offense. They did recently add Odell Beckham Jr. and the bye likely helped integrate him into their offense. Higbee has been fairly quiet at the tight end position, posting fewer than 50 receiving yards in all but two games this season. If you’re looking to throw a dart at tight end, you might be better off rolling with Engram or Austin Hooper ($3,500) at significantly cheaper salaries. Hooper has a favorable matchup against the Ravens, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 12

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