Thu Jun 2 10:47am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Williams setup for breakout year
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season.
|2022 RB SOS|
|3.||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||384|
|6.||New York Giants||392.5|
|8.||Las Vegas Raiders||394.1|
|11.||Los Angeles Chargers||397.3|
|12.||Los Angeles Rams||397.8|
|13.||San Francisco 49ers||398.2|
|16.||New York Jets||399.2|
|17.||New Orleans Saints||400.9|
|19.||Kansas City Chiefs||401.4|
|22.||Green Bay Packers||404|
|29.||New England Patriots||411.2|
The Dolphins have the best schedule for fantasy running backs this coming year. The problem is you just aren’t sure the back that will lead that team in carries. But these guys might be worth taking a chance on because of this schedule. Whoever emerges could be a productive fantasy asset. David Montgomery is intriguing on a team that lacks weapons in the passing game and gets the second easiest schedule for fantasy backs. Montgomery might have his best season to date. Javonte Williams is pegged as a breakout candidate by many and having the third most favorable fantasy schedule for running backs makes that even more of a possibility. The Patriots have a host of backs that should get carries and could all produce well with their favorable running back schedule. And the Bills duo of Devin Singletary and rookie James Cook could do some damage this year.
Running backs with challenging fantasy running back schedules include Cordarrelle Patterson, Leonard Fournette, Miles Sanders and Joe Mixon. Patterson is one guy that is a concern because of his finish to last year, stumbling at the end of the season after a great start. And now Patterson gets the most challenging fantasy schedule for running backs. Fournette is setup for more work with Ronald Jones gone, but that might not lead to a lot more fantasy points with this schedule. Lastly, Saquon Barkley has been a bust in recent years and his team has the sixth toughest schedule for fantasy backs. Barkley could have more tough sledding this year.
Take a close look at this entire ranking when figuring out your fantasy rankings for the coming season.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Weeks 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
|2022 RB PLAYOFF SOS|
|1.||Los Angeles Chargers||345.7|
|6.||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||376|
|8.||Green Bay Packers||380.3|
|11.||New York Giants||390.5|
|12.||Las Vegas Raiders||394|
|15.||New Orleans Saints||400.7|
|19.||New England Patriots||407.9|
|24.||Los Angeles Rams||418.3|
|27.||Kansas City Chiefs||424.7|
|29.||New York Jets||430.6|
|31.||San Francisco 49ers||433.3|
Christian McCaffrey has big injury concerns, but his celling is as high as any back in the game. He also has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. This makes him a huge risk/reward pick for fantasy teams. McCaffrey could be a difference maker in the playoffs if he can stay on the field. Elijah Mitchell is another intriguing back for the coming year, getting a chance to start from day one and having the second most favorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rookie Breece Hall is expected to be the Jets lead back and could have a great finish to his season with a very favorable schedule to end things. And D’Andre Swift has a favorable regular and playoff fantasy schedule. Swift is another back that battles injury issues, but could be a monster this year if he can stay on the field all season.
There are many repeat teams near the top of the list of the toughest fantasy running back schedules, including the Texans, Falcons and Eagles. You might just want to steer clear of players on these teams. Things might not work out well for them. The team with the toughest fantasy running back schedule in the playoffs, though, is the Chargers. Austin Ekeler is a top-five draft pick this year. He gets a ton of work in the passing game, so having a tough running back schedule isn’t a huge concern. But it is something to keep in mind when picking early in drafts. If you are debating between Ekeler and another high-profile back, you might want to lean the other way because of this playoff schedule.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at firstname.lastname@example.org. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson is looking at an indefinite suspension. The league is pushing for it, and if successful, it would keep the signal-caller off the field for an undetermined amount of time, potentially for the entire 2022-23 campaign. Of course, the NFL Players Association will fight it. However, it likely won't do any good. The situation may also have contract implications, depending on the length of the sentence, meaning Cleveland could still receive his services for five years. Nevertheless, nobody knows when Watson will be back on the field, so it may be a good idea for managers to stay away from him altogether during fantasy drafts heading toward Week 1. A suspension could also mean the Browns may be unwilling to part ways with Baker Mayfield, who recently re-emerged on the Seahawks' radar.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Blaine Gabbert is viewed by head coach Todd Bowles as a "security blanket." Although Gabbert and Kyle Trask are expected to battle for the No. 2 spot on the depth chart behind Tom Brady during training camp, it appears the former has the clear edge. The veteran, who inked a deal this offseason to return to Tampa, hasn't lived up to expectations since entering the league in 2011. However, with Brady potentially calling it a career (again) after this season, there could be a slight chance Gabbert may get some consideration to start for the Bucs moving ahead. That won't do anything for his draft stock heading into 2022-23. Yet, it may make him a stash option in dynasty formats.
New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones hasn't had the best NFL career thus far. Since entering the league in 2019, Jones has thrown for 8,398 yards, 45 touchdowns, and 29 picks while completing just 62.8% of his throws. However, legendary signal-caller Eli Manning recently spoke up in defense of the 25-year-old, indicating that constant coaching changes have severely hindered his development. Still, with New York declining Jones' fifth-year option, he will likely have one more chance to prove his worth under new head coach Brian Daboll. He will also have to convince fantasy managers in all formats he's worthy of a roster spot, which won't happen until he turns things around.
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (shoulder) remains on schedule in his recovery from shoulder surgery and for his timetable to resume throwing, according to a source. The expectation is that Garoppolo will throw over the next few weeks, starting in early July per head coach Kyle Shanahan, and that plan remains in place. The 30-year-old had surgery in each March, but he's expected to be ready to take part in training camp, whether it's with the Niners or another team. He hasn't done any offseason workouts, but the 49ers are likely to get serious about trading him again once he resumes throwing. Although there have been whispers that second-year signal-caller Trey Lance might not be ready for the starting job, Jimmy G is still more likely to be traded than to remain with the team for the 2022 season.
Washington Commanders wide receivers coach Drew Terrell said that he could not find any negative plays on rookie wide receiver Jahan Dotson's college game film. The 16th overall pick in the draft stood out in both organized team activities and mandatory minicamp due to his refined skills and renowned hands. "He's a smooth cat," Terrell said. "He's what we expected him to be thus far in terms of his being a route-runner, his ball skills, his demeanor, not flinching from the moment and being able to come out here and gain confidence every day and execute every day." Dotson has developed instant chemistry with quarterback Carson Wentz as well, but fantasy managers need to keep in mind this has all been without pads and with top wideout Terry McLaurin holding out. The first-rounder's stock is certainly rising, but he should still only be a late-round upside pick in standard-sized leagues.
The Chicago Bears signed second-round cornerback Kyler Gordon to a rookie deal on Saturday, which brings 11 of the team's 12 draft picks under contract. With the Bears in transition, especially on defense, Gordon figures to be a big part of their future, and he's already been impressing the coaching staff. "Kyler's been lighting it up the last two days, I'll just tell you that," head coach Matt Eberflus said following a practice during the Bears offseason program. "The guy's got tremendous ball skills. He's been playing defense the right way and we're very impressed with him." Safety Jaquan Brisker, who came off the board nine picks after Gordon, is the Bears' lone unsigned rookie from their 2022 draft class.
Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield remains on the roster heading toward training camp. While the 27-year-old has been a desired commodity by clubs around the NFL, a deal hasn't gotten done. However, according to Josina Anderson, the Seahawks have expressed "a high-level of interest" in trading for the signal-caller and are also prepared to give him a contract extension. Seattle has remained one of the favorites to acquire Mayfield's services throughout most of the offseason. But it appears things may be moving in the right direction for all involved. Although anything can happen regarding Mayfield's future, a move to Seattle would be positive news for the former Oklahoma Sooner as well as D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Noah Fant, primarily since all three are currently in line to receive throws from either Geno Smith or Drew Lock in 2022-23.
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has more than enough hype as he enters his third year in the NFL. The former LSU Tiger had a spectacular sophomore season. He recovered from the season-ending knee injury that cost him the remainder of his rookie year and also led the Bengals to a Super Bowl appearance. However, while the debate continues regarding who is the most promising up-and-coming signal-caller going, ESPN's Dan Orlovsky recently named Burrow the "best young-gun" in the league, age 25 or younger. Although Justin Herbert may have something to say about that, Burrow certainly has an excellent chance of being one of the most potent fantasy options in any format imaginable, especially with Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon at his disposal.
New York Giants defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux (hip) sat out during the team's final OTAs while missing minicamp with an undisclosed injury. However, it was recently revealed the rookie sustained a "tweaked hip" this spring. Fortunately, the ailment isn't considered serious, although head coach Brian Daboll couldn't answer if the former Oregon Duck would be ready for training camp. Thibodeaux, who was selected with the No. 5 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, had 19 sacks throughout his collegiate career. While the hip injury is something for managers to monitor, it shouldn't stop anyone from taking him early in IDP fantasy formats, at least unless things take a turn in the wrong direction moving forward.
Dynasty | Saints running back Alvin Kamara is bracing for at least a six-game suspension Dynasty Analysis: As Mike Florio points out in the linked video, the personal conduct policy baseline for the incident that Kamara was involved in outlines a six-game suspension. The "or more" reference seems to still be in play as well, making for significant 2022 risk for those drafting Kamara ahead of the official announcement. Kamara, soon to be 27, had a dismal 2021 relating to expectations and a significant amount of missed time in 2022 lessens his value for what would be an age-28 campaign in 2023, a point at which where running backs begin to decline. Undoubtedly, the dynamic back still has tremendous upside when on the field, and the sooner we know how many games will be missed, the sooner dynasty coaches will be able to more accurately reflect the risk-reward potential. Now ranked as DLF's RB15, Alvin Kamara is clearly a back best owned by competitive dynasty teams looking for two-to-three more years of production.
Dynasty | Ravens rookie tight end Isaiah Likely drew praise from Lamar Jackson and veterans for his minicamp performance Dynasty Analysis: Likely displayed sure hands and a rapport with Jackson during camp which had veterans talking. The 2022 fourth-round selection will now try to carry the momentum into training camp in July for a team who badly needs receivers to step up to fill the hole left by departed wide receiver Marquise Brown (ARI). As for Likely, he projects best as a 'move' player due to limited size but playing behind top option Mark Andrews will provide a long runway to add further strength, weight and development while waiting for greater snaps. Isaiah Likely is unranked on DLF's tight end rankings and is a compelling target to watch as training camp plays out.
Dynasty | Texans receiver Brandin Cooks could be in-line for a career year in 2022 Dynasty Analysis: It's all guess work of course but it stands to reason that career marks across the board would be possible for Cooks, now in his third year with the team. Despite the team turmoil in 2021 and lack of consistent quarterback play, Cooks still managed a 90/1,037/6 stat line. When considering his career-high marks across multiple seasons of 84 receptions (2015), 1,204 yards (2018) and nine touchdowns (2015), it's not out of the realm of possibility given sophomore quarterback Davis Mills' development and more stability across the offense and coaching staff. Predicting the Texans' offensive production in 2022 is not an easy exercise and, regardless whether or not Cooks does have a career year, he's undoubtedly the WR1 for a team which will be relying heavily on its passing attack. The perennially under-appreciated receiver is ranked as DLF's WR44.
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara is likely to miss time heading into next season. The stud running back is bracing for a suspension of at least six games. Kamara is facing felony battery charges for allegedly throwing some punches at an incident in Las Vegas. The NFL normally waits until the criminal process has concluded before announcing any disciplinary action. As of right now, Kamara appears to be a risky fantasy option heading into the season. Although, Mark Ingram II should see his stock rise as he's the projected backup to Kamara.
Washington Commanders defensive end Chase Young (knee) is not expected to be ready for the beginning of the season. The former No. 2 overall pick is recovering from an ACL tear that he suffered in Week 10 of last season. Since then, the organization has not placed a timetable on Young and said he'll likely enter training camp on the PUP list. That being said, it seems highly unlikely that Young is ready by the regular season. It's possible that Young enters the new season on the injured reserve. That means, Young would miss at least the first four games of next season. The young stud pass rusher is expected to return at some point next season, but who knows when exactly that will happen.
New Orleans Saints defensive end Marcus Davenport (finger) is expected to begin the new season on the PUP list. The former first round pick is expected to take the field in Week 1 despite having his pinkie finger amputated. Fantasy managers are going will have to wait and see what happens when training camp begins later this summer. Davenport has not played more than 13 games in a single season since entering the NFL in 2018. Although, Davenport recorded a career-high nine sacks through 11 games last season. The Saints could certainly use Davenport to begin the season, but we'll see what happens.
There is concern from the NFL Players Association that the league will look to suspend Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson for the entire 2022 season, if not indefinitely, according to sources. If that were to happen, the Browns are expected to move forward with Jacoby Brissett as their starting QB rather than try to reconcile with Baker Mayfield. Watson reportedly has settled 20 of his 24 sexual-misconduct cases, but that matters little to the NFL. The situation should be resolved soon, and it seems like things are leaning towards Watson getting hit with a lengthy suspension in 2022 and possibly beyond. We should have a resolution to this saga before most fantasy managers conduct their 2022 drafts.
The Athletic's Kevin Fishbain didn't include Chicago Bears defensive end Robert Quinn on his 53-man roster projection after he chose to skip mandatory minicamp. Quinn missing minicamp allows for speculation that he might not want to be a veteran on a rebuilding team. If Chicago moves on from him, they might want to add another edge rusher to compete on their defensive line. The 32-year-old pass-rusher made his third Pro Bowl in 2021 while recording a career-high 18.5 sacks, so even though he's on the wrong side of 30, teams would likely be interested in acquiring him if the Bears show that they are serious about trading him.
Chicago Bears cornerback Thomas Graham was one of the big revelations of mandatory minicamp and spent most of the spring as the first-team nickel corner. Graham was a fan favorite last year and appears to be entering training camp ahead of veterans Tavon Young and Duke Shelley. A sixth-round pick last year out of Oregon, Graham played a limited role in his rookie season and finished with 13 tackles (six solo), one tackle for loss and four passes defensed in four games (one start) for the Bears. Considering Chicago is rebuilding, it makes sense for them to hand Graham a much bigger role in his second NFL season to see if he's going to be a part of their long-term future.
Buffalo Bills tight end Tommy Sweeney will likely stay on the 53-man roster for depth and locker-room reasons, but he could be vulnerable if the Bills need another roster spot for flexibility. Sweeney will be inactive on game days behind Dawson Knox and O.J. Howard, and he's right on the bubble heading into training camp in July. In his first two seasons with the Bills, the 26-year-old has 17 receptions on 25 targets for 158 yards and one touchdown in 19 games (four starts), and he'd need injuries to both Knox and Howard to become fantasy relevant in 2022.
Cleveland Browns cornerback Denzel Ward (foot), who is in a protective boot after suffering a foot injury on the final day of mandatory minicamp on June 16, said he'll "be good" for training camp next month, although he was hesitant to say he'd be ready for the start of camp. Ward described his injury as a sore left foot. The 25-year-old was named to his second Pro Bowl in 2021 after he recorded 43 tackles (34 solo), three interceptions (one for a touchdown), 10 passes defensed and half a sack in 15 starts for Cleveland. It led to a five-year, $100.5 million contract extension in April. Ward's foot doesn't have any structural damage, so as long as he doesn't have a setback in training camp, he should be ready for Week 1.