Lineup Prep: Divisional Round Games

Wed Jan 18 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

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Kelce should get plenty of targets


And then there were eight. Yes, eight teams left for a right to go to the Super Bowl. It should be a great weekend of action. I think all the games should be very competitive and could go either way. I really mean that. The Giants are big underdogs but just keep getting better each week. And Daniel Jones is playing some great football. So needless to say, I’m really looking forward to the action this week. It should be great! 

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

If I’m an NFL team, I’m not sure I pursue Tom Brady. I just don’t know how much he has left in the tank. The only scenario that makes sense to be is if I draft a quarterback I don’t trust as a rookie. You hate to count him out, but I’m just not sure he is going to be a difference maker at this stage of his career. He just misses on some throws he normally makes and will be another year older next season. 

I can’t see how the Chargers bring back Brandon Staley as head coach. That teams has too much talent to disappoint like they have this year. That offense needs a big-time spark, wasting some elite talent on that side of the ball. And Staley playing his starters in a meaningless game at the end of the year made no sense. It cost him with Mike Williams getting hurt. And then he blows a game in the playoffs he was up by 27 points. It sounds like the Chargers will bring him back, though, which is not good news for that team in my view.  

You have to wonder what the Cowboys are going to do at kicker after Brett Maher missed four extra points last week. That has to be a huge concern for them. Every point matters so much in the playoffs. A missed extra point could be the difference between moving on or going home. I can’t see the team having much faith in him after that display last week. It is tough to make a change at this point, though, especially with Maher kicking so well during the regular season. 

So the big question this offseason is where does Lamar Jackson land. He is not coming back to the Ravens. That much I do know. I like the Jets as a fit. A young, up and coming team that sorely needs a franchise quarterback. He would have a lot of talent to work with offensively and could be a good fit there. I actually like the Falcons too as a landing spot. They have a strong running game and solid offensive line. Plus, it would be great seeing Jackson throw passes to Kyle Pitts. It should be an interesting offseason regarding Jackson. The good news is you can expect him to get moved before the draft, so we should know sooner than later. 

That was quite the performance from Trevor Lawrence last week. He showed me a lot, coming back from his four interceptions. He could have folded and quit after the start to his game. That didn’t happen. He kept plugging along and adjusted to his first-half mistakes. Lawrence just keeps impressing me on a weekly basis. He is going to be a good one for years to come. 

I’m anxious to see how Brock Purdy responds when he is called on in a close game. The stage hasn’t been too big for him to start his career, but it is going to just keep getting bigger for him as his team advances in the playoffs. He has answered every question to date, which has been impressive. How will he do if asked to complete a game-winning drive at the end of a game? It will be fun to watch. 

News and Notes: The Titans hired 49ers director of pro personnel Ran Carthon as their new general manager. Carthon comes from a great organization and could be a great get for the Titans organization. . . . .Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has informed interested teams that he's staying in Detroit in 2023. This is great news for the Lions offense, keeping Johnson in the fold for next season. 

HOT PLAYS

Christian Kirk, WR, Jaguars. Kirk had a great showing in the Jaguars playoff opener, scoring 21.8 fantasy points. He has 21-plus points two straight games. He has been great as the top target in the Jaguars passing game. Expect more of the same this week against Kansas City. Kirk had nine receptions for 105 yards and two touchdowns against the Chiefs in Week 10. The Chiefs allow the eighth most fantasy points to receivers. 

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce is a must start every week, but look for the Chiefs to lean on him even more in the playoffs. Kelce has not scored  touchdown since Week 12, but has four games with double-digit fantasy points during the stretch. He gets his weekly chances. Kelce had six catches for 81 yards and a touchdown against this same Jaguars team earlier this season. The Jaguars also have struggled to stop the tight end this year, allowing the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends. 

Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles. Sanders had his best season to date this year. He topped 1,200-rushing yards and scored 11 touchdowns in the Eagles explosive offense. He has enjoyed some huge games, including one against the Giants in Week 14. He ran 17 times for a season-high 144 yards and two scores in that game. He could get a big workload again this week against a Giants team that ranks 27th overall against the run.

COLD PLAYS 

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. Elliott is becoming a touchdown dependent fantasy play. He just isn’t doing much outside of finding the end zone. He has fewer than 40-rushing yards his last three games. He has run 21 times for just 37 yards his last two. We just aren’t sure he is worth the risk right now for fantasy teams. The 49ers also have been great against the run this year, ranking first overall in fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs. The 49ers are second overall against the run, allowing 77.7-rushing yards per game. 

Isaiah Hodgins, WR, Giants. Hodgins had his best game of the season last week, catching eight passes for 105 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. He has been a big surprise down the stretch for the Giants, emerging as a top threat in the passing game opposite Richie Jams. But even with that said, he has just two games all season with more than 50 yards. He has been mediocre more than outstanding. And a matchup against a great Eagles secondary is not a good one for him. Philadelphia is first overall against the pass, allowing just 179.8-passing yards per game. 

Gabriel Davis, WR, Bills. Davis has been up and down all season, frustrating fantasy owners. He was up last week, catching six passes for 113 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. It was a great showing for Davis. You just never know what you are going to get with him, though. He has a really tough matchup against a rapidly improving Bengals defense, a secondary that allows the sixth fewest fantasy points to receivers. It might be a down game for Davis this week. 

SLEEPERS

Hayden Hurst, TE, Bengals. Hurst hasn’t been off the charts this year, but pretty consistent for the Bengals. He has at least four receptions nine times. And he has been pretty involved in the offense since coming back from injury two weeks back. He has 11 targets his last two games and caught four passes each of those games. The Bills might focus on shutting down the high-powered receivers in the Bengals offense, giving Hurst a few more favorable looks. He might be a sneaky play for fantasy teams in this one. 

Elijah Mitchell, RB, 49ers. Mitchell returned to action late in the year and has found the end zone each of the last two games he has played. He had just 27 total yards last week but had 11 touches in the game. The 49ers are getting him the ball, so expect more of the same for a team that likes to get multiple backs involved offensively. Plus, he gets a Cowboys team this week that has allowed some big rushing games this season. Dallas has allowed 150-plus rushing yards six times, including 200-plus yards twice. Mitchell could really do some damage with double-digit touches this week.

Cole Beasley, WR, Bills. Beasley had a season-high five targets last week for the Bills. He had two catches for 35 yards and his first touchdown of the season. He has a familiarity with Josh Allen and this offense, so he is worth a dart throw for fantasy teams in what could be a high-scoring game. It would not surprise to see Beasley find the end zone once again. 

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Jaguars/Chiefs, Bengals/Bills, Giants/Eagles.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Starts, Sits, Sleepers: Week 12

Player Notes
James Cook Nov 20 10:40pm CT
James Cook

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook had 17 carries for 116 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown during Thursday's Week 12 loss against the Houston Texans. He also caught all three of his targets for an additional 13 receiving yards. The highlight of his game was a 45-yard touchdown run to break a scoreless tie in the first quarter. Even as the Bills' offense was slowed down by the Texans' strong defense, Cook still had a very productive game and carved out a terrific fantasy performance once again. He logged his first rushing touchdown since Week 8 and now has nine trips to the end zone this season. He remains a high-end RB1 option heading into Week 13 against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

From RotoBaller

Davis Mills Nov 20 10:40pm CT
Davis Mills

Houston Texans quarterback Davis Mills completed 16 of his 30 pass attempts for 153 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions during Thursday's Week 12 victory over the Buffalo Bills. He also rushed for four yards and didn't take a sack. Mills has played quite well in the absence of C.J. Stroud (concussion), going 3-0 with six touchdowns and one turnover while getting the Texans above .500. Houston will likely turn back to Stroud if he clears concussion protocol ahead of Week 13 against the Indianapolis Colts, but Mills' efforts have been impressive nonetheless. Managers could trust him as a mid-to-low QB2 if he gets thrust back into the starting role later this season.

From RotoBaller

Khalil Shakir Nov 20 10:40pm CT
Khalil Shakir

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir caught eight of his 10 targets for 110 yards during Thursday's Week 12 loss against the Houston Texans. He also lost a fumble. Shakir padded his stats with a pair of impressive plays in the fourth quarter. The first was a 44-yard catch-and-run that turned a third-and-long into a first down. The second was a nifty lateral from Joshua Palmer to Shakir that converted a 4th-and-27. Despite the loss, Shakir's big game against a strong Texans secondary was very impressive, and it should vault him into the low-end WR2 tier for Week 13 against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

From RotoBaller

Josh Downs Nov 20 10:10pm CT
Josh Downs

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs continues to lose ground in his battle for playing time and volume. As the Colts emerge from their Week 11 bye and prepare for Week 12 against the Kansas City Chiefs, Downs is likely fourth in the pass-catching pecking order behind Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren, and Alec Pierce. In his last game, the 24-year-old played a mere 43 percent of the offensive snaps, converting two targets into one catch for three yards. The 24-year-old impressed as the WR35 in PPR leagues last season, but he has taken a step backward this year. The Colts are running the ball quite often, and when Daniel Jones does throw, he often looks for a different weapon. Downs ranks outside the top 40 receivers and can no longer be trusted in fantasy starting lineups.

From RotoBaller

Colston Loveland Nov 20 9:50pm CT
Colston Loveland

Chicago Bears rookie first-round tight end Colston Loveland had a breakout performance in the Week 9 win over the Cincinnati Bengals, catching six of seven targets for 118 yards and the first two touchdowns of his career. In two games since then, the 21-year-old out of Michigan has seven grabs for 95 yards and no touchdowns on his eight targets. His role in Chicago's passing game has grown over the last four games, although fellow TE Cole Kmet remains involved, as evidenced by his five catches for 45 yards on Sunday. Kmet's presence will continue to limit Loveland's opportunities, but a Week 12 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers will provide him with another chance to break out. The Steelers' defense has allowed the fourth-most half-PPR points per game to TEs this year, including six receiving touchdowns.

From RotoBaller

Adonai Mitchell Nov 20 9:50pm CT
Adonai Mitchell

New York Jets wide receiver Adonai Mitchell is carving out a larger role with his new team, filling the void left behind by Garrett Wilson (knee), who is on injured reserve. Mitchell played 49 percent of the offensive snaps last week, which is his second-highest mark of the season. Although he caught just one pass for 10 yards, he also commanded a season-high six targets. Acquired from the Colts last month, Mitchell is enjoying a fresh start after a very disappointing year and a half in Indianapolis. Going forward, his fantasy value hinges on the Jets' quarterback play. Mitchell will continue to earn high volume as a top receiver alongside Tyler Johnson, John Metchie, and Isaiah Williams, but whether Tyrod Taylor or Justin Fields can consistently get him the football remains to be seen. He's worth stashing in deeper redraft leagues, but we need to see more consistent production before inserting him into lineups.

From RotoBaller

Tyler Allgeier Nov 20 9:30pm CT
Tyler Allgeier

Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier continues to earn goal-line opportunities, and his three touchdowns over the Falcons' last two games have salvaged his otherwise uninspiring performances. Allgeier has 14 carries for 67 yards over those two contests, plus a pair of receptions. However, he also has three rushing touchdowns, scoring at least 9.6 fantasy points (PPR) in each of the two games. The Falcons have shown a tendency to give the ball to their running backs around the goal line, as Bijan Robinson and Allgeier have combined for five touchdowns over the last two games, including three last Sunday. As long as there are enough goal-line opportunities to go around, Allgeier should continue to score touchdowns at a promising rate. He remains in the RB3/flex tier ahead of Week 12 against the New Orleans Saints, but managers must accept the fact that his value is heavily dependent on finding the end zone. As a result, he's more of a matchup-based play rest-of-season.

From RotoBaller

Colby Parkinson Nov 20 9:30pm CT
Colby Parkinson

Los Angeles Rams tight end Colby Parkinson has started to produce over the last four games and will be in line for an even bigger role moving forward, with fellow TE Tyler Higbee (ankle) on Injured Reserve. The 26-year-old has caught touchdown passes in back-to-back games and has six receptions on seven targets for 55 yards over that span. His six-yard touchdown catch in Week 11 proved to be the game-winner against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. The former fourth-rounder by Seattle in 2020 out of Stanford has been efficient in eight games this year, catching 15 of his 17 targets for 123 yards and two touchdowns. With Higbee out for at least the next four games, Parkinson will have an elevated role, but he'll also be fighting for playing time with rookie Terrance Ferguson and Davis Allen. In a tough matchup on Sunday night against the Buccaneers, consider Parkinson a touchdown-dependent, low-end TE2 streamer.

From RotoBaller

Kyle Monangai Nov 20 9:20pm CT
Kyle Monangai

Chicago Bears running back Kyle Monangai has been able to remain on the fantasy radar by putting together a two-game touchdown streak. His volume has been reduced since D'Andre Swift returned to action, as the rookie has 19 carries for just 2.7 yards per carry over his last two games, plus a 14-yard reception. However, he has posted at least 8.8 fantasy points in each of those contests by finding the end zone. While Monangai is certainly not guaranteed to score a touchdown every week, he does have goal-line upside, perhaps filling a David Montgomery-esque role in Chicago's Ben Johnson-led offense. Even as Swift leads the backfield in snaps and touches as a fantasy RB2, Monangai has shown that he can be a weekly RB3/flex. The rookie is worth starting in leagues with at least 12 teams ahead of Sunday's Week 12 contest against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

From RotoBaller

Terrance Ferguson Nov 20 9:20pm CT
Terrance Ferguson

Los Angeles Rams rookie tight end Terrance Ferguson has just five catches for 138 yards and one touchdown in his first eight NFL games, but the 22-year-old second-rounder will have more opportunities over the next four games after the Rams put Tyler Higbee (ankle) on Injured Reserve this week. Colby Parkinson and Davis Allen will also be involved, but Ferguson probably has the most pass-catching upside of the trio with Higbee sidelined. The 6-foot-5, 252-pounder out of Oregon wasn't targeted at all in last week's big win over the Seattle Seahawks, the fourth time this year he's had zero catches in a game. The floor is obviously very low, and the matchup in Week 12 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers isn't a great one, but there's no denying that Ferguson has an opportunity in front of him. His athleticism alone could make him an interesting red-zone weapon for the Rams in the coming weeks.

From RotoBaller

Tyjae Spears Nov 20 9:00pm CT
Tyjae Spears

Tennessee Titans running back Tyjae Spears continues to be an intriguing fantasy option in half-PPR and full-PPR leagues, given his heavy involvement on passing downs. The 24-year-old has caught at least three passes in all five of his games so far this year, and he logged a season-high five receptions last Sunday against the Houston Texans. He continues to split snaps with Tony Pollard, and while Pollard has earned more carries, Spears has a major advantage with his receiving workload. This week, the Titans take on the Seattle Seahawks, who have allowed the fourth-most receptions and seventh-most receiving yards to opposing running backs in 2025. Spears is in a perfect position to carve out a large target volume again this week. He should be viewed as a high-end RB3/flex option in most fantasy leagues.

From RotoBaller

Gunnar Helm Nov 20 9:00pm CT
Gunnar Helm

Tennessee Titans rookie tight end Gunnar Helm had one of his better performances in Sunday's Week 11 loss to the Houston Texans, catching four of his five targets for 29 yards. Helm's four catches and five targets both tied his season-highs in the 16-13 loss, a game in which rookie receivers Elic Ayomanor (hamstring) and Chimere Dike (chest) were both injured. In his first 10 NFL games, the 23-year-old fourth-rounder has caught 24 of his 30 targets for 216 yards and one touchdown. Helm hasn't turned heads in 2025, but he does have at least one catch in all 10 of his games, and the Titans could be looking to get him the ball more in the final stretch of the season. He will be a more intriguing TE streamer in deeper fantasy leagues if Ayomanor is unable to play. Also in his favor is the matchup against Seattle, a team that has allowed the sixth-most half-PPR fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.

From RotoBaller

Michael Carter Nov 20 8:50pm CT
Michael Carter

Arizona Cardinals running back Michael Carter is trending up ahead of Sunday's Week 12 contest against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The 26-year-old was factored out of the Cardinals' plans in the two games following their bye week, but he returned to a larger role last Sunday, catching five of seven targets for 22 receiving yards. While the sample size is too small to make any guarantees, it certainly appears that Carter could be in line to operate as the Cardinals' top receiving back going forward. He'll earn some carries, too, and managers have to be intrigued after he edged out Bam Knight for the highest snap share in Arizona's backfield last week. Knight and Carter will split most of the opportunities on Sunday after Emari Demercado (ankle) was already ruled out for Week 12. Both backs will rank as RB3/flex options, with Carter gaining a slight advantage over his backfield-mate in full-PPR leagues.

From RotoBaller

Cade Otton Nov 20 8:50pm CT
Cade Otton

Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton followed up his season-best performance of nine catches for 82 yards in Week 10 with a two-catch, 28-yard dud in Sunday's loss to the Buffalo Bills. In five games leading into the Week 11 contest, the 26-year-old had a healthy 29 receptions for 319 yards. Injuries to receivers Mike Evans (collarbone), Chris Godwin (leg), and Jalen McMillan (neck) have given Otton additional targets, which have made him a more interesting TE streamer in fantasy football leagues. Although he's still searching for his first trip to the end zone in 2025, Otton has seen at least five targets in his last six games. The Bucs have a difficult road matchup in Week 12 on Sunday Night Football against the Los Angeles Rams, but they should have to throw plenty to keep up with L.A.'s high-powered offense. The Rams have also allowed the 12th-most half-PPR points to TEs per game this year. Otton has a clear path for a nice bounce-back game this week.

From RotoBaller

Tory Horton Nov 20 8:40pm CT
Tory Horton

Seattle Seahawks rookie wide receiver Tory Horton (groin, shin) has yet to practice this week, according to Michael-Shawn Dugar of The Athletic. Horton last played in a Week 9 win over the Washington Commanders, when he had four catches on four targets for a season-high 48 yards and two touchdowns. Since the 22-year-old was injured, veteran Cooper Kupp returned from an injury of his own, and the team acquired receiver Rashid Shaheed from the New Orleans Saints. The fifth-round pick will need to practice in some capacity on Friday to have a shot at playing on Sunday on the road against the Tennessee Titans. Horton has caught five touchdown passes on 13 receptions in his first year in the NFL, but it's going to be more difficult for him to stand out on offense in Seattle whenever he returns from his injuries.

From RotoBaller

Kayshon Boutte Nov 20 8:40pm CT
Kayshon Boutte

New England Patriots wide receiver Kayshon Boutte (hamstring) was a full participant in practice on Thursday. He has been able to log back-to-back full sessions, which bodes well for his status heading into Week 12 against the Cincinnati Bengals. Assuming Boute has another full practice on Friday, he should enter the weekend without any sort of injury designation. In such a scenario, he would reclaim his role as the No. 2 receiver in the Patriots' offense behind Stefon Diggs. Fantasy managers shouldn't rush to get him back into their lineups, though. The Bengals have allowed the second-fewest points to receivers playing out wide, which is where Boutte has amassed 89.3% of his snaps. Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry are far better fantasy options among the Patriots' pass catchers.

From RotoBaller

Matthew Golden Nov 20 8:30pm CT
Matthew Golden

Green Bay Packers rookie first-round wide receiver Matthew Golden (shoulder, wrist) was limited for a second straight day due to shoulder and wrist injuries on Thursday, according to the team's official website. Golden sat out of the team's Week 10 game but returned in last week's win over the New York Giants to catch one of his three targets for 24 yards. The 22-year-old seems likely to be available this Sunday against the division-rival Minnesota Vikings, but he could draw a questionable designation going into that matchup if he can't upgrade to a full practice on Friday. Christian Watson (knee), Romeo Doubs (wrist), Dontayvion Wicks (calf), Savion Williams (foot), and Bo Melton (shoulder) are also on the injury report, but none of their injuries appear to be very serious. Golden, the 23rd overall pick in April, has struggled for any kind of consistency in his first year in the NFL, catching a total of 24 passes for 286 yards and no touchdowns on 32 targets in his first nine games.

From RotoBaller

Emeka Egbuka Nov 20 8:30pm CT
Emeka Egbuka

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Emeka Egbuka (illness) remained a limited participant in practice on Thursday. He has maintained the same status for two days in a row, and he'll likely need to log a full practice on Friday to avoid any sort of injury designation. If he remains limited for a third day, he'll presumably end up with a "questionable" tag. Egbuka isn't the only player under the weather; six Buccaneers players are listed on the injury report with an illness, including quarterback Baker Mayfield, who upgraded to a full participant on Thursday. Fantasy managers should remain optimistic that Egbuka, a standout rookie, will recover in time for Sunday's Week 12 contest against the Los Angeles Rams. He remains a high-end WR2 in fantasy football despite scoring double-digit fantasy points just once over his last five games.

From RotoBaller

Baker Mayfield Nov 20 8:20pm CT
Baker Mayfield

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (illness) logged a full practice session on Thursday. This was an improvement after he had been limited on Wednesday. As long as Mayfield continues to recover well from his illness, he should be able to play in Sunday's Week 12 contest against the Los Angeles Rams without any limitations. He remains a mid-range QB1 in fantasy football, looking to build on a two-game stretch that includes 446 passing yards, 39 rushing yards, five total touchdowns, and two turnovers. His return to full strength also bodes well for some of Tampa's pass catchers, including Emeka Egbuka (illness), Chris Godwin (fibula), and Cade Otton.

From RotoBaller

Rhamondre Stevenson Nov 20 8:10pm CT
Rhamondre Stevenson

New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) was a limited participant in practice on Thursday. This was the second day in a row that Stevenson, who missed the last three games, logged a limited practice session. He's trending in the right direction to play in Week 12 against the Cincinnati Bengals, but Friday's practice should provide more clarity on his status. If he's a full participant, he'll likely head into the weekend without an injury designation. Otherwise, he could garner a "questionable" tag. Even if he does play, New England's backfield will look different than when he was last healthy. TreVeyon Henderson has emerged as an impressive playmaker in his rookie season, tallying 264 rushing yards, 65 receiving yards, and five touchdowns over the course of three games without Stevenson. Henderson has a strong chance to remain the Patriots' lead back, leaving Stevenson in line for fewer than 50% of the team's offensive snaps. Stevenson can be a low-end RB3/flex in a favorable matchup, but Henderson has far more fantasy appeal and upside.

From RotoBaller