Wed Jan 18 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Kelce should get plenty of targets
And then there were eight. Yes, eight teams left for a right to go to the Super Bowl. It should be a great weekend of action. I think all the games should be very competitive and could go either way. I really mean that. The Giants are big underdogs but just keep getting better each week. And Daniel Jones is playing some great football. So needless to say, I’m really looking forward to the action this week. It should be great!
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
If I’m an NFL team, I’m not sure I pursue Tom Brady. I just don’t know how much he has left in the tank. The only scenario that makes sense to be is if I draft a quarterback I don’t trust as a rookie. You hate to count him out, but I’m just not sure he is going to be a difference maker at this stage of his career. He just misses on some throws he normally makes and will be another year older next season.
I can’t see how the Chargers bring back Brandon Staley as head coach. That teams has too much talent to disappoint like they have this year. That offense needs a big-time spark, wasting some elite talent on that side of the ball. And Staley playing his starters in a meaningless game at the end of the year made no sense. It cost him with Mike Williams getting hurt. And then he blows a game in the playoffs he was up by 27 points. It sounds like the Chargers will bring him back, though, which is not good news for that team in my view.
You have to wonder what the Cowboys are going to do at kicker after Brett Maher missed four extra points last week. That has to be a huge concern for them. Every point matters so much in the playoffs. A missed extra point could be the difference between moving on or going home. I can’t see the team having much faith in him after that display last week. It is tough to make a change at this point, though, especially with Maher kicking so well during the regular season.
So the big question this offseason is where does Lamar Jackson land. He is not coming back to the Ravens. That much I do know. I like the Jets as a fit. A young, up and coming team that sorely needs a franchise quarterback. He would have a lot of talent to work with offensively and could be a good fit there. I actually like the Falcons too as a landing spot. They have a strong running game and solid offensive line. Plus, it would be great seeing Jackson throw passes to Kyle Pitts. It should be an interesting offseason regarding Jackson. The good news is you can expect him to get moved before the draft, so we should know sooner than later.
That was quite the performance from Trevor Lawrence last week. He showed me a lot, coming back from his four interceptions. He could have folded and quit after the start to his game. That didn’t happen. He kept plugging along and adjusted to his first-half mistakes. Lawrence just keeps impressing me on a weekly basis. He is going to be a good one for years to come.
I’m anxious to see how Brock Purdy responds when he is called on in a close game. The stage hasn’t been too big for him to start his career, but it is going to just keep getting bigger for him as his team advances in the playoffs. He has answered every question to date, which has been impressive. How will he do if asked to complete a game-winning drive at the end of a game? It will be fun to watch.
News and Notes: The Titans hired 49ers director of pro personnel Ran Carthon as their new general manager. Carthon comes from a great organization and could be a great get for the Titans organization. . . . .Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has informed interested teams that he's staying in Detroit in 2023. This is great news for the Lions offense, keeping Johnson in the fold for next season.
Christian Kirk, WR, Jaguars. Kirk had a great showing in the Jaguars playoff opener, scoring 21.8 fantasy points. He has 21-plus points two straight games. He has been great as the top target in the Jaguars passing game. Expect more of the same this week against Kansas City. Kirk had nine receptions for 105 yards and two touchdowns against the Chiefs in Week 10. The Chiefs allow the eighth most fantasy points to receivers.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce is a must start every week, but look for the Chiefs to lean on him even more in the playoffs. Kelce has not scored touchdown since Week 12, but has four games with double-digit fantasy points during the stretch. He gets his weekly chances. Kelce had six catches for 81 yards and a touchdown against this same Jaguars team earlier this season. The Jaguars also have struggled to stop the tight end this year, allowing the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends.
Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles. Sanders had his best season to date this year. He topped 1,200-rushing yards and scored 11 touchdowns in the Eagles explosive offense. He has enjoyed some huge games, including one against the Giants in Week 14. He ran 17 times for a season-high 144 yards and two scores in that game. He could get a big workload again this week against a Giants team that ranks 27th overall against the run.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. Elliott is becoming a touchdown dependent fantasy play. He just isn’t doing much outside of finding the end zone. He has fewer than 40-rushing yards his last three games. He has run 21 times for just 37 yards his last two. We just aren’t sure he is worth the risk right now for fantasy teams. The 49ers also have been great against the run this year, ranking first overall in fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs. The 49ers are second overall against the run, allowing 77.7-rushing yards per game.
Isaiah Hodgins, WR, Giants. Hodgins had his best game of the season last week, catching eight passes for 105 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. He has been a big surprise down the stretch for the Giants, emerging as a top threat in the passing game opposite Richie Jams. But even with that said, he has just two games all season with more than 50 yards. He has been mediocre more than outstanding. And a matchup against a great Eagles secondary is not a good one for him. Philadelphia is first overall against the pass, allowing just 179.8-passing yards per game.
Gabriel Davis, WR, Bills. Davis has been up and down all season, frustrating fantasy owners. He was up last week, catching six passes for 113 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. It was a great showing for Davis. You just never know what you are going to get with him, though. He has a really tough matchup against a rapidly improving Bengals defense, a secondary that allows the sixth fewest fantasy points to receivers. It might be a down game for Davis this week.
Hayden Hurst, TE, Bengals. Hurst hasn’t been off the charts this year, but pretty consistent for the Bengals. He has at least four receptions nine times. And he has been pretty involved in the offense since coming back from injury two weeks back. He has 11 targets his last two games and caught four passes each of those games. The Bills might focus on shutting down the high-powered receivers in the Bengals offense, giving Hurst a few more favorable looks. He might be a sneaky play for fantasy teams in this one.
Elijah Mitchell, RB, 49ers. Mitchell returned to action late in the year and has found the end zone each of the last two games he has played. He had just 27 total yards last week but had 11 touches in the game. The 49ers are getting him the ball, so expect more of the same for a team that likes to get multiple backs involved offensively. Plus, he gets a Cowboys team this week that has allowed some big rushing games this season. Dallas has allowed 150-plus rushing yards six times, including 200-plus yards twice. Mitchell could really do some damage with double-digit touches this week.
Cole Beasley, WR, Bills. Beasley had a season-high five targets last week for the Bills. He had two catches for 35 yards and his first touchdown of the season. He has a familiarity with Josh Allen and this offense, so he is worth a dart throw for fantasy teams in what could be a high-scoring game. It would not surprise to see Beasley find the end zone once again.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Jaguars/Chiefs, Bengals/Bills, Giants/Eagles.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at firstname.lastname@example.org. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay said on Tuesday that the team's decision on hiring a new head coach is "coming in days not hours." "We said, as an organization (Colts) the coaching search would be an open-minded and a thorough process and the final decision would be strictly based on what is best for our franchise's success and best for our fans," Irsay tweeted. The Colts have conducted a lengthy coaching search this offseason, which has included Jeff Saturday, Eric Bieniemy, Shane Steichen, Rich Bisaccia Aaron Glenn and Don Martindale, among others. They fired Frank Reich nine games into the 2022 season and replaced him with the inexperienced Saturday, who went 1-7 down the stretch.
The Tennessee Titans hired Tim Kelly as their new offensive coordinator on Tuesday, while Atlanta Falcons quarterbacks coach Charles London will become their new passing-game coordinator and quarterbacks coach. Meanwhile, on defense, Chris Harris was hired to be the pass-game coordinator and cornerbacks coach. Kelly spent last year as the team's pass-game coordinator. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill seemed excited about the news of Kelly's promotion. Before working for the Titans, Kelly had several different coaching roles in eight seasons with the Houston Texans. Harris spent the last three years as the defensive backs coach for the Washington Commanders. Tennessee also promoted Jason Houghtaling to offensive line coach.
The New Orleans Saints invited Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr for a visit and the Raiders have granted permission, according to sources. The plan is for the Saints to visit with Carr on Wednesday. Carr has a no-trade clause and is doing his due diligence with a trade imminent. Saints head coach Dennis Allen put Carr into the starting lineup as a rookie when he was the head coach of the Raiders in 2014. The Raiders benched Carr for the final two regular season games and are preparing to move on from him heading into 2023. If the veteran QB isn't traded a few days after the Super Bowl, Las Vegas will be forced to release him. Carr would be an upgrade over Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston in New Orleans, and although the receiving corps would be a downgrade from what he had with the Raiders, second-year wideout Chris Olave would be a nice No. 1 for Carr to work with.
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Matt Ryan mentioned that he is open to returning for the 2023 campaign. The 37-year-old is due $12 million next season, but the Colts can save that money by cutting him before March 17th. Ryan has said there is still good football left in him, but the stats show a different story. The veteran signal-caller threw 13 interceptions and had a season-high 15 fumbles last season. It's tough to imagine him finding a starting spot somewhere after that horrendous season. Although, it's possible he takes a backup job just to continue playing in the NFL.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers plans to take a retreat before making any decisions on his future. The 39-year-old signal-caller is likely going to drag this out for quite awhile. He recently mentioned he doesn't want to play for the 49ers, but hasn't given much information outside of that. He could return to Green Bay, play elsewhere, or retire altogether. It seems like football fans are going to have to wait a few more weeks before Rodgers gives us anymore information.
The Carolina Panthers currently have quarterbacks Matt Corral, a third-rounder from last year, and Jacob Eason, a fourth-rounder in 2020. ESPN's David Newton thinks it's doubtful that the Panthers will make a run at a high-priced veteran QB such as Derek Carr with the team ranked in the bottom half of the league in salary cap space. It means Carolina will probably focus on a signal-caller in the draft, even if it means trading up from No. 9 overall into the top three. New head coach Frank Reich and general manager Scott Fitterer agree that the best way to build long term is to draft a QB and build around him. There's a chance that Corral will enter the 2023 season as the starter under center, but it also depends on which quarterback the team drafts. There's also the possibility the team re-signs Sam Darnold as a short-term solution at the position.
Carolina Panthers tight end Ian Thomas could become a salary cap casualty this offseason. He's good at blocking, but he's not the receiver this team needs and he has a $6.7 million cap hit in 2023. Cutting him with a post-June 1 designation would free up $3.1 million. The Panthers could then use those savings to sign a veteran in free agency, such as Dallas' Dalton Schultz or Jacksonville's Evan Engram. Carolina hasn't had a dependable pass-catching tight end sine Greg Olsen left in 2020. The 26-year-old Thomas failed to find the end zone in 2022 and finished with just 21 catches for 197 yards on 30 targets in 17 games played. His best season was his rookie year in 2018, when he had 36 receptions for 333 yards and two touchdowns in 16 games (six starts).
Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said that wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) and Kadarius Toney (ankle, hamstring) "looked good" during a light practice on Tuesday. The Chiefs will test both receivers when more intensive workouts start on Wednesday. Toney said on Monday night that he will play in the Super Bowl on Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles. Both Toney and Smith-Schuster were injured in the AFC Championship game against the Cincinnati Bengals and didn't practice at all last week. They were both listed as questionable, but as long as they are able to practice all this week, they should be active for the big game on Sunday. Smith-Schuster and Toney have been boom-or-bust for fantasy managers this year, although they could have more upside against Philly with Mecole Hardman (pelvis) on Injured Reserve.
The San Francisco 49ers plan to hire former Carolina Panthers interim head coach Steve Wilks as their new defensive coordinator, according to sources. Wilks will be replacing DeMeco Ryans, who left to become the next head coach of the Houston Texans. The Niners interviewed Wilks on Monday and obviously liked what they heard. San Francisco's last two head coaches, Robert Saleh and Ryans, went on to become head coaches. In two years under Ryans, the 49ers defense ranked second in the NFL in points (18.9) and yards per game allowed (305.3), fourth in defensive efficiency (60.7) and yards per play (5.04) and fifth in defensive EPA (67.02), so Wilks has plenty to work with in his new job. Wilks has experience as a head coach, defensive coordinator and defensive backs coach in his time in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers signed former Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Tyron Johnson and defensive back Tre Swilling to Reserve/Futures deals on Monday. Johnson appeared in four games with the Houston Texans and Las Vegas Raiders in 2022 and caught his only target for an eight-yard gain with the Texans. The 27-year-old spent his rookie year in 2020 with the Chargers and caught 20 of his 26 targets for 398 yards and three touchdowns in 12 games (no starts). Since then, he has three catches in 14 games played. Johnson will give the Niners some more receiver depth heading into the 2023 season.
Cleveland Browns pass-rusher Myles Garrett (toe) doesn't need surgery after dislocating his toe during the Pro Bowl last weekend. He's slated for a short recovery time and should be good to go for offseason workouts with the team. Garrett tied a career high for sacks in 2022 with 16 and was named to his third straight Pro Bowl as a result. The 27-year-old is one of the best all-around pass-rushers in the league and should be one of the first defensive lineman off the board in IDP fantasy formats yet again. Garrett hasn't had single-digit sacks since his rookie year in 2017. Along with his 16 sacks last season, he had a career-high 60 tackles (37 solo), 18 tackles for loss, 26 QB hits, four passes defensed and two forced fumbles in 16 games.
Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener threw for 139 yards and a touchdown to lead the National team to a 27-10 victory over the American team in last Saturday's Senior Bowl to win MVP honors. Haener went 12-for-19 in the game after setting a Fresno State record with a 68.1% completion rate in 2022. He missed four games with an ankle injury but returned to finish off a nine-game winning streak. As of right now, the 23-year-old signal-caller is projected to come off the board in the mid to late rounds of this year's NFL draft. Haener stands at 6-foot-1, 200 pounds, and was a three-year starter for the Bulldogs in his collegiate career. His best assets are sound decision-making and accuracy, but he doesn't have high-end physical traits.
Philadelphia Eagles CEO Jeffrey Lurie said on Monday that quarterback Jalen Hurts is "just what we're looking for" when asked about the chances of initiating contract extension talks with Hurts at some point this offseason. "I don't think he has anything to prove [to be the long-term answer at quarterback]," Lurie said. "He is an MVP-caliber quarterback, an incredible leader of the team on the field, off the field." Hurts was a second-rounder in 2020 and has one year left on his rookie deal, but he's now eligible for an extension. He's scheduled to make a base salary of $4.2 million in 2023. The 24-year-old was the QB3 in overall fantasy points in 2022, behind only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, and he likely would have finished as the QB1 if not for right shoulder injury that cost him several games at the end of the regular season.
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Kadarius Toney (ankle, hamstring) said he's "definitely" playing in the Super Bowl on Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles. Toney suffered an ankle injury in the AFC Championship game, didn't practice at all last week and was listed as questionable last Friday for the Super Bowl. If the 24-year-old returns to practice this week, he should be able to suit up, but he'll be a boom-or-bust fantasy option, even with Mecole Hardman (pelvis) on Injured Reserve. JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) is also questionable for the big game, so the Chiefs are quite banged up at the position with everything on the line this Sunday. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, rookie Skyy Moore and Justin Watson could have bigger roles if Toney and Smith-Schuster are limited.
Kansas City Chiefs cornerback L'Jarius Snead (head) said he has cleared the league's concussion protocol, and he's expected to return to practice on Wednesday after getting knocked out of the AFC Championship game against the Cincinnati Bengals with a concussion. Snead is good to go for the Super Bowl this Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles, as long as he doesn't have a setback in practices this week. The 26-year-old is the team's longest-tenured cornerback on the 53-man roster and is the only Chiefs player at the position that has appeared in a Super Bowl with this team. Snead typically covers the opposing team's No. 1 receiver, which in this case would be A.J. Brown.
The New Orleans Saints are expected to name former Cleveland Browns defensive coordinator Joe Woods as their new defensive coordinator, according to sources. Woods served as Cleveland's defensive coordinator from 2020 to 2022 and reunite with head coach Dennis Allen from their days working for the Las Vegas Raiders. In 2022, the Saints used co-defensive coordinators Ryan Nielsen and Kris Richard, with Allen calling the defensive plays. In addition to Woods, the team is expected to hire Todd Grantham, who was a defensive analyst at Alabama last year. At one point last season, the Browns defense ranked 31st in defensive efficiency, and they ranked next to last in the NFL in defensive total rush expected points added. The Saints also struggled mightily to stop the run late in 2022.
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver A.J. Green announced his retirement from professional football on his official Instagram page on Monday. Green really tailed off in his second season with the Cardinals in 2022, catching just 24 passes on 47 targets for 236 yards and two touchdowns in 15 games (10 starts), despite both DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown missing time due to a suspension and an injury, respectively. But Green did have a 77-yard touchdown reception in his final game in Week 18 against the San Francisco 49ers. The 34-year-old entered the league as the fourth overall pick in 2011 by the Cincinnati Bengals, and he was one of the best receivers in the NFL in his first seven seasons. Green made the Pro Bowl seven straight times to begin his career and reached the 1,000-yard mark in six of those seven seasons. He finishes with 727 catches (1,269 targets) for 10,514 yards and 70 touchdowns in 158 career games.
The Carolina Panthers hired Ejiro Evero as their new defensive coordinator on Sunday, according to sources. It's a big hire for head coach Frank Reich in his first year with the team, as they lock up one of the league's most talented young coaches after the Denver Broncos let him out of his contract. In addition to the Panthers, the Minnesota Vikings also had talks with Evero for the same position. The 42-year-old also interviewed for all five of the head-coaching openings this offseason. Despite all the injuries the Broncos dealt with in 2022, they finished in the top 10 in the league in total defense and rushing defense under Evero. The Panthers defense is considered their strength and is led by defensive end Brian Burns and safety Jeremy Chinn. They had a 4-3 base defense last year, but they'll be switching to a 3-4 base defense under Evero.
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (elbow) hasn't made an official decision on whether to have surgery to fix a torn UCL in his right elbow, but signs continue to point toward Purdy having surgery that would involve a six-month build-up to return to action. Purdy injured his right arm in the NFC Championship loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Instead of having Tommy John surgery, Purdy is expected to require an internal brace, which doesn't require as long of a rehab. If all goes smoothly, the 23-year-old could be cleared to return to practice in early August. Purdy stepped in for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo on Dec. 4 and won eight games for the team in his rookie season. Because of how well Purdy played when forced into action in 2022, he deserves to compete with Trey Lance for the starting job in 2023, but he could be fighting an uphill battle if he isn't ready for the start of training camp.
The Kansas City Chiefs activated running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle) from Injured Reserve on Monday, so he will be active for the Super Bowl against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, Feb. 12. Edwards-Helaire suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 11 and hasn't played since, so it's probably unlikely that he'll see many offensive snaps, if any, behind Jerick McKinnon and rookie Isiah Pacheco in the big game this weekend. It will be interesting to see how much the 23-year-old practices this week, and that could give us more of a sense on how much he might actually play in the Super Bowl. CEH has been a pretty big disappointment in his first three NFL seasons after being taken in the first round (32nd overall) in 2020.