Wed Jan 18 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Kelce should get plenty of targets
And then there were eight. Yes, eight teams left for a right to go to the Super Bowl. It should be a great weekend of action. I think all the games should be very competitive and could go either way. I really mean that. The Giants are big underdogs but just keep getting better each week. And Daniel Jones is playing some great football. So needless to say, I’m really looking forward to the action this week. It should be great!
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
If I’m an NFL team, I’m not sure I pursue Tom Brady. I just don’t know how much he has left in the tank. The only scenario that makes sense to be is if I draft a quarterback I don’t trust as a rookie. You hate to count him out, but I’m just not sure he is going to be a difference maker at this stage of his career. He just misses on some throws he normally makes and will be another year older next season.
I can’t see how the Chargers bring back Brandon Staley as head coach. That teams has too much talent to disappoint like they have this year. That offense needs a big-time spark, wasting some elite talent on that side of the ball. And Staley playing his starters in a meaningless game at the end of the year made no sense. It cost him with Mike Williams getting hurt. And then he blows a game in the playoffs he was up by 27 points. It sounds like the Chargers will bring him back, though, which is not good news for that team in my view.
You have to wonder what the Cowboys are going to do at kicker after Brett Maher missed four extra points last week. That has to be a huge concern for them. Every point matters so much in the playoffs. A missed extra point could be the difference between moving on or going home. I can’t see the team having much faith in him after that display last week. It is tough to make a change at this point, though, especially with Maher kicking so well during the regular season.
So the big question this offseason is where does Lamar Jackson land. He is not coming back to the Ravens. That much I do know. I like the Jets as a fit. A young, up and coming team that sorely needs a franchise quarterback. He would have a lot of talent to work with offensively and could be a good fit there. I actually like the Falcons too as a landing spot. They have a strong running game and solid offensive line. Plus, it would be great seeing Jackson throw passes to Kyle Pitts. It should be an interesting offseason regarding Jackson. The good news is you can expect him to get moved before the draft, so we should know sooner than later.
That was quite the performance from Trevor Lawrence last week. He showed me a lot, coming back from his four interceptions. He could have folded and quit after the start to his game. That didn’t happen. He kept plugging along and adjusted to his first-half mistakes. Lawrence just keeps impressing me on a weekly basis. He is going to be a good one for years to come.
I’m anxious to see how Brock Purdy responds when he is called on in a close game. The stage hasn’t been too big for him to start his career, but it is going to just keep getting bigger for him as his team advances in the playoffs. He has answered every question to date, which has been impressive. How will he do if asked to complete a game-winning drive at the end of a game? It will be fun to watch.
News and Notes: The Titans hired 49ers director of pro personnel Ran Carthon as their new general manager. Carthon comes from a great organization and could be a great get for the Titans organization. . . . .Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has informed interested teams that he's staying in Detroit in 2023. This is great news for the Lions offense, keeping Johnson in the fold for next season.
HOT PLAYS
Christian Kirk, WR, Jaguars. Kirk had a great showing in the Jaguars playoff opener, scoring 21.8 fantasy points. He has 21-plus points two straight games. He has been great as the top target in the Jaguars passing game. Expect more of the same this week against Kansas City. Kirk had nine receptions for 105 yards and two touchdowns against the Chiefs in Week 10. The Chiefs allow the eighth most fantasy points to receivers.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce is a must start every week, but look for the Chiefs to lean on him even more in the playoffs. Kelce has not scored touchdown since Week 12, but has four games with double-digit fantasy points during the stretch. He gets his weekly chances. Kelce had six catches for 81 yards and a touchdown against this same Jaguars team earlier this season. The Jaguars also have struggled to stop the tight end this year, allowing the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends.
Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles. Sanders had his best season to date this year. He topped 1,200-rushing yards and scored 11 touchdowns in the Eagles explosive offense. He has enjoyed some huge games, including one against the Giants in Week 14. He ran 17 times for a season-high 144 yards and two scores in that game. He could get a big workload again this week against a Giants team that ranks 27th overall against the run.
COLD PLAYS
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. Elliott is becoming a touchdown dependent fantasy play. He just isn’t doing much outside of finding the end zone. He has fewer than 40-rushing yards his last three games. He has run 21 times for just 37 yards his last two. We just aren’t sure he is worth the risk right now for fantasy teams. The 49ers also have been great against the run this year, ranking first overall in fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs. The 49ers are second overall against the run, allowing 77.7-rushing yards per game.
Isaiah Hodgins, WR, Giants. Hodgins had his best game of the season last week, catching eight passes for 105 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. He has been a big surprise down the stretch for the Giants, emerging as a top threat in the passing game opposite Richie Jams. But even with that said, he has just two games all season with more than 50 yards. He has been mediocre more than outstanding. And a matchup against a great Eagles secondary is not a good one for him. Philadelphia is first overall against the pass, allowing just 179.8-passing yards per game.
Gabriel Davis, WR, Bills. Davis has been up and down all season, frustrating fantasy owners. He was up last week, catching six passes for 113 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. It was a great showing for Davis. You just never know what you are going to get with him, though. He has a really tough matchup against a rapidly improving Bengals defense, a secondary that allows the sixth fewest fantasy points to receivers. It might be a down game for Davis this week.
SLEEPERS
Hayden Hurst, TE, Bengals. Hurst hasn’t been off the charts this year, but pretty consistent for the Bengals. He has at least four receptions nine times. And he has been pretty involved in the offense since coming back from injury two weeks back. He has 11 targets his last two games and caught four passes each of those games. The Bills might focus on shutting down the high-powered receivers in the Bengals offense, giving Hurst a few more favorable looks. He might be a sneaky play for fantasy teams in this one.
Elijah Mitchell, RB, 49ers. Mitchell returned to action late in the year and has found the end zone each of the last two games he has played. He had just 27 total yards last week but had 11 touches in the game. The 49ers are getting him the ball, so expect more of the same for a team that likes to get multiple backs involved offensively. Plus, he gets a Cowboys team this week that has allowed some big rushing games this season. Dallas has allowed 150-plus rushing yards six times, including 200-plus yards twice. Mitchell could really do some damage with double-digit touches this week.
Cole Beasley, WR, Bills. Beasley had a season-high five targets last week for the Bills. He had two catches for 35 yards and his first touchdown of the season. He has a familiarity with Josh Allen and this offense, so he is worth a dart throw for fantasy teams in what could be a high-scoring game. It would not surprise to see Beasley find the end zone once again.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Jaguars/Chiefs, Bengals/Bills, Giants/Eagles.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Carolina Panthers running back Trevor Etienne has essentially been a non-factor lately. He didn't log a snap in Week 10, and he played just four snaps with one carry last Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons. The rookie has primarily played on special teams, logging either a kick or punt return in all but one game this year. In total, he has just 20 carries for 94 rushing yards in 2025, plus two catches for an additional nine yards. He also fumbled once. Most of his volume came during Weeks 4-6 when Chuba Hubbard was banged up. As long as Hubbard and Rico Dowdle are healthy, Etienne will be a non-factor on offense. Managers should continue to patiently stash him in dynasty leagues, but they can leave him on waivers in redraft formats. That remains true in Week 12 against the San Francisco 49ers.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff had one of his worst games in a Lions uniform in Week 11, completing just 14 of 37 pass attempts for 255 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. On paper, Goff has a much easier matchup in Week 12 when Detroit hosts the New York Giants. Through 11 weeks, the Giants have allowed the sixth-most passing yards (2,641) in the NFL. New York will also remain without cornerback Paulson Adebo (knee), who has been out since Week 7 with a knee injury. The Lions are dealing with some health issues themselves, as Goff will be without tight end Sam LaPorta (back), and multiple Detroit offensive linemen are playing through nagging injuries. Still, Goff could have a chance to do damage against the struggling Giants defense and profiles as a must-start fantasy QB1 in Week 12.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown had one of the least efficient games of his career in his team's Week 11 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, hauling in just two of 12 targets for 42 yards. On paper, St. Brown has a much more favorable matchup in Week 12 against the New York Giants. Through 11 weeks, New York has allowed the sixth-most passing yards (2,641) and seventh-most passing touchdowns (19) in the NFL. St. Brown has earned double-digit targets in four out of his last five games and should continue to see a heavy workload in Week 12 with Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (back) sidelined by a back injury. If there's one concern for St. Brown, it's that he's struggled with drops in recent weeks and holds a career-high 5.3% drop rate in 2025. Still, the 26-year-old has been one of the most reliable wideouts in the NFL over the course of his career and remains a must-start fantasy wide receiver in Week 12.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets wide receiver Allen Lazard (coach's decision) has been inactive for the last two weeks, and he's trending toward being a healthy scratch again in Week 12 against the Baltimore Ravens. Lazard went from playing 78 percent of the snaps in Week 8 to being a healthy scratch for the Jets' next game, and he has been inactive ever since, even with the Jets trying to find ways to replace Garrett Wilson (knee). So far, Adonai Mitchell, John Metchie III, Tyler Johnson, Arian Smith, and Isaiah Williams have been the Jets' preferred replacements for Wilson, leaving Lazard as the odd man out. With all five of those receivers healthy, it looks like Lazard is heading for more of the same. Don't expect him to suit up against Baltimore.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Noah Gray ran the fourth-most routes (19) on the team in Week 11, catching two of his three targets in the loss to the Denver Broncos. Gray was behind only the Chiefs' primary three pass catchers in Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Travis Kelce, but still didn't see much production. Head coach Andy Reid rotated his pass catchers more than usual in the game, with those three all running at least 30 routes, and no other Chiefs pass catcher reached 20. It could have been a matchup-specific thing against Denver, but it was Gray's highest route share since Week 6. Gray is still searching for his first touchdown of the year after catching a career high five last season. He can be left on waivers in the majority of leagues.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Jahan Dotson has been an inconsistent contributor in fantasy football this season, and he remains off the fantasy radar in most leagues ahead of Week 12 against the Dallas Cowboys. Dotson turned in a solid two-catch, 43-yard showing last week, but he also has zero catches in two of his last four games. Dotson's floor remains quite low given his role in the Eagles' offense. As the No. 3 receiver in an offense that likes to run the ball, Dotson should only expect a couple of targets per game (at most), and most of them will be contested throws deeper downfield. Plus, his snap share has taken a step backward, as he played fewer than one-third of the snaps in each of his last two games. He is a boom-or-bust receiver who ranks outside the top 100 receivers in fantasy points this season. Even against a susceptible Dallas defense, Dotson is not a safe receiver to rely upon.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers rookie wide receiver Tre' Harris has seen his playing time steadily rise as the season has gone along. Harris hit a season high in snap (82.8%) and route share back (84.6%) in Week 6 with Quentin Johnston out, catching four of five targets for 27 yards. His route share has been between 22.5% and 35.9% every week since then, but he spiked back up to 50% in Week 11, his second-highest rate of the year. He caught his only target for 12 yards, and it was likely a result of the Chargers taking a beating in a blowout 35-6 loss to the Jaguars, but it was positive news for the rookie regardless. The rookie second-rounder is buried in a deep Chargers wide receiver room, and it will be tough for him to make a big impact this season without an injury.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver David Sills V is expected to see more opportunities in Week 12 with Drake London (knee) ruled out. Sills has been on the field consistently for Atlanta this season, playing 40.3% of the snaps, but has just four catches for 34 yards on nine targets. Atlanta will also be without starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (knee) on Sunday, leaving Kirk Cousins to make his second start of the season. Cousins will primarily be looking for Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts Sr. in the passing game, but Sills may see an increase in opportunities as well. He will likely be in the top three Falcons for routes run, which gives him some appeal in deeper leagues.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles Will Shipley has been relegated mostly to special teams touches and the occasional carry behind Saquon Barkley and Tank Bigsby as the team's RB3. The Eagles acquired Bigsby ahead of Week 7, and he's mostly served as the primary backup to Barkley. Since then, Bigsby and Shipley have each played 14.5% of the offensive snaps, but Bigsby has 17 carries to Shipley's seven during that span. The 2024 fourth-round pick entered the season as the No. 2 back for the Eagles, then missed Weeks 2 and 3 due to a rib injury, and has now fallen out of favor with the team, going out and trading for another back to have another capable option behind Barkley. Shipley still has some appeal as a handcuff if Barkley were to go down, but it would likely be a timeshare with Bigsby.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott said that it's a possibility that both linebacker Terrel Bernard (elbow) and right tackle Spencer Brown (shoulder) could go on injured reserve, but they aren't sure just yet, according to Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic. McDermott added that it doesn't look great for either player to participate in practice in the upcoming week. Both players would be major losses to a Bills team that has already dropped two of their last three games and four of their last seven. The 26-year-old Bernard missed four games last season due to injury, but has started every game otherwise since becoming a full-time starter in 2022. Brown, on the other hand, has started 66 of 69 career games since entering the league in 2021 and was putting together another strong season, grading as PFF's 25th-ranked tackle. Both Bernard's and Brown's statuses will be updated in the coming days.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert couldn't get it going against the Lions, managing just two catches for 24 yards on five targets. After a couple troubling performances in a row, the question for Goedert boils down to this: have his scoring opportunities dried up, or is he due? He'll look to get out of his rough patch this Sunday as he travels to Dallas to take on the Cowboys in a rematch of the season opener. Last time he played his division rivals, Goedert recorded seven catches, which is the second-most he's had in a game this year. After showing promise against this opponent already-even without finding the end zone-bet on him to have another solid outing. He's a low-end TE1 in Week 12.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles kicker Jake Elliott had his most made field goals in a game so far this season last week against the Lions, nailing three-of-three and adding on an extra point for a perfect game. His longest make came from 49 yards out, so his performance didn't translate to a ton of fantasy points, but it was certainly nothing to scoff at (especially when compared to his previous point totals). This week, Elliott will kick against the Cowboys, who allow the second-most points per game (29.3) to opposing offenses in the league and give up the second-most fantasy points to kickers. For managers who stream kickers, Elliott is a solid option in Week 12, but don't be surprised if he gets back to his usual ways and has an underwhelming showing.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley set his season high for attempts last week against the Lions, carrying the ball 26 times for 83 yards. Given the opportunities, it wasn't a very productive game for Barkley and he'll try to turn things around this weekend against the Cowboys. One of his four rushing touchdowns this season came against Dallas in Week 1-a game where he also accounted for four catches and 84 total yards. The Cowboys have had trouble stopping the run this year, allowing 11 touchdowns through 10 games as well as giving up an average of 131.4 yards on the ground in those contests. They also allow the fifth-most fantasy points to RBs. The Eagles clearly trust Barkley to handle heavy workloads at this point in the season, giving him 62 rush attempts over the last three games, which should make managers optimistic about possible boom performances going forward. Consider him a solid RB1 in Week 12.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles running back Tank Bigsby was the only backup RB to record any stats for his team last week, getting four carries for 34 yards versus Detroit. At this point, it's a complete toss-up on who plays second fiddle to Saquon Barkley in the Philly backfield. Bigsby has shown promise with the time on the field he's gotten, but next week it could be Will Shipley's number getting called. It doesn't seem like a good idea to have any Eagles back rostered in fantasy outside of Barkley, and if he does go down, it might just be a mad scramble to the waiver wire until it becomes clear who the true replacement would be.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown led his team in targets by a landslide last week, being thrown to 11 times while the next closest (Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith) had just five looks. Unfortunately, Brown's longest catch was for 12 yards and he totaled a mediocre 49 on the night. His seven catches made it a satisfactory evening for PPR formats, but this outing against the Lions continues Brown's theme of the season-getting plenty of passes but not tons of production to show for it. Luckily, his upcoming game is against a Cowboys defense that allows the third-most fantasy points to WRs this season. It's a prime opportunity to bounce back for Brown after he mustered only one catch in his previous meeting with Dallas. Jalen Hurts clearly still trusts him as a first option, and it's unlikely he'll disappoint twice against such an enticing matchup. Consider Brown a low-end WR2 in Week 12.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith could only haul in one of his five targets last week against Detroit, finishing with a season-worst eight yards. It's safe to say it can't get much worse than this for Smith, and a peak could be following this valley with his upcoming face-off against the Cowboys. Dallas has allowed 23 touchdowns through the air in their 10 games, which is the second-most in the league. They've also given up over 250 passing yards in a game five times. Smith did struggle in his first bout against the Cowboys-with his 16 yards being his previous season-low before last Sunday's Lions game-but trust him to get back into the groove he was in over the last few weeks. He's a low-end WR2 this week.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles rookie wide receiver Darius Cooper last week logged his lowest snap count since returning from injury, getting on the field for just three plays against the Detroit Lions. Now past the halfway mark of the season, it's seeming more and more likely that Cooper will not see any catches before the 2025 campaign has ended. Even when the receivers above him on the depth chart have been sidelined or had rough games, Cooper has not gotten his opportunities. He should continue to be left off of fantasy rosters as Philly faces the Cowboys this weekend.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts had another one-touchdown outing last week against the Lions, making for back-to-back underwhelming fantasy performances. Philly's offense has struggled overall in their last couple of games, but their woes should come to an end this Sunday as they have their second meeting with the Cowboys. Dallas gives up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and allows the third-most passing yards per game (249.9) in the NFL. But back in Week 1, it was Hurts' run game that really impressed. He opened the season against his division rivals with 62 yards and two scores on the ground, but managed just 152 passing yards. As the Eagles look to hang onto the top seed in the NFC, Hurts is a must-start QB1 in a very favorable matchup.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles running back Tank Bigsby hasn't been able to make much of an impact on the field this season. In Week 8, Bigsby rushed for 104 yards on nine yards, but outside of that Bigsby has been a non-factor. The 23-year-old has seen seven carries over the last two weeks as the primary back to Saquon Barkley. The expectation is that Bigsby is going to continue having a minimal role in the offense as long as Barkley is healthy. Bigsby could be worth stashing in deep leagues because if something happens to Barkley he'll likely have a larger role. Outside of that, Bigsby can be ignored while Barkley is healthy.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver KaVontae Turpin hasn't done much in the receiving game over the last few weeks. Turpin has been held to two receptions or fewer in four straight games. Last week, Turpin hauled in one of his two targets for zero yards in the win over the Las Vegas Raiders. At this point, Turpin has fallen too far down on the depth chart to be a weekly asset. Right now, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are looking like the only reliable wideouts on this roster. Turpin is a helpful special teams player, but isn't someone that is going to help in fantasy leagues right now.
From RotoBaller