Lineup Prep: Divisional Round Games

Wed Jan 18 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

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Kelce should get plenty of targets


And then there were eight. Yes, eight teams left for a right to go to the Super Bowl. It should be a great weekend of action. I think all the games should be very competitive and could go either way. I really mean that. The Giants are big underdogs but just keep getting better each week. And Daniel Jones is playing some great football. So needless to say, I’m really looking forward to the action this week. It should be great! 

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

If I’m an NFL team, I’m not sure I pursue Tom Brady. I just don’t know how much he has left in the tank. The only scenario that makes sense to be is if I draft a quarterback I don’t trust as a rookie. You hate to count him out, but I’m just not sure he is going to be a difference maker at this stage of his career. He just misses on some throws he normally makes and will be another year older next season. 

I can’t see how the Chargers bring back Brandon Staley as head coach. That teams has too much talent to disappoint like they have this year. That offense needs a big-time spark, wasting some elite talent on that side of the ball. And Staley playing his starters in a meaningless game at the end of the year made no sense. It cost him with Mike Williams getting hurt. And then he blows a game in the playoffs he was up by 27 points. It sounds like the Chargers will bring him back, though, which is not good news for that team in my view.  

You have to wonder what the Cowboys are going to do at kicker after Brett Maher missed four extra points last week. That has to be a huge concern for them. Every point matters so much in the playoffs. A missed extra point could be the difference between moving on or going home. I can’t see the team having much faith in him after that display last week. It is tough to make a change at this point, though, especially with Maher kicking so well during the regular season. 

So the big question this offseason is where does Lamar Jackson land. He is not coming back to the Ravens. That much I do know. I like the Jets as a fit. A young, up and coming team that sorely needs a franchise quarterback. He would have a lot of talent to work with offensively and could be a good fit there. I actually like the Falcons too as a landing spot. They have a strong running game and solid offensive line. Plus, it would be great seeing Jackson throw passes to Kyle Pitts. It should be an interesting offseason regarding Jackson. The good news is you can expect him to get moved before the draft, so we should know sooner than later. 

That was quite the performance from Trevor Lawrence last week. He showed me a lot, coming back from his four interceptions. He could have folded and quit after the start to his game. That didn’t happen. He kept plugging along and adjusted to his first-half mistakes. Lawrence just keeps impressing me on a weekly basis. He is going to be a good one for years to come. 

I’m anxious to see how Brock Purdy responds when he is called on in a close game. The stage hasn’t been too big for him to start his career, but it is going to just keep getting bigger for him as his team advances in the playoffs. He has answered every question to date, which has been impressive. How will he do if asked to complete a game-winning drive at the end of a game? It will be fun to watch. 

News and Notes: The Titans hired 49ers director of pro personnel Ran Carthon as their new general manager. Carthon comes from a great organization and could be a great get for the Titans organization. . . . .Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has informed interested teams that he's staying in Detroit in 2023. This is great news for the Lions offense, keeping Johnson in the fold for next season. 

HOT PLAYS

Christian Kirk, WR, Jaguars. Kirk had a great showing in the Jaguars playoff opener, scoring 21.8 fantasy points. He has 21-plus points two straight games. He has been great as the top target in the Jaguars passing game. Expect more of the same this week against Kansas City. Kirk had nine receptions for 105 yards and two touchdowns against the Chiefs in Week 10. The Chiefs allow the eighth most fantasy points to receivers. 

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce is a must start every week, but look for the Chiefs to lean on him even more in the playoffs. Kelce has not scored  touchdown since Week 12, but has four games with double-digit fantasy points during the stretch. He gets his weekly chances. Kelce had six catches for 81 yards and a touchdown against this same Jaguars team earlier this season. The Jaguars also have struggled to stop the tight end this year, allowing the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends. 

Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles. Sanders had his best season to date this year. He topped 1,200-rushing yards and scored 11 touchdowns in the Eagles explosive offense. He has enjoyed some huge games, including one against the Giants in Week 14. He ran 17 times for a season-high 144 yards and two scores in that game. He could get a big workload again this week against a Giants team that ranks 27th overall against the run.

COLD PLAYS 

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. Elliott is becoming a touchdown dependent fantasy play. He just isn’t doing much outside of finding the end zone. He has fewer than 40-rushing yards his last three games. He has run 21 times for just 37 yards his last two. We just aren’t sure he is worth the risk right now for fantasy teams. The 49ers also have been great against the run this year, ranking first overall in fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs. The 49ers are second overall against the run, allowing 77.7-rushing yards per game. 

Isaiah Hodgins, WR, Giants. Hodgins had his best game of the season last week, catching eight passes for 105 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. He has been a big surprise down the stretch for the Giants, emerging as a top threat in the passing game opposite Richie Jams. But even with that said, he has just two games all season with more than 50 yards. He has been mediocre more than outstanding. And a matchup against a great Eagles secondary is not a good one for him. Philadelphia is first overall against the pass, allowing just 179.8-passing yards per game. 

Gabriel Davis, WR, Bills. Davis has been up and down all season, frustrating fantasy owners. He was up last week, catching six passes for 113 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. It was a great showing for Davis. You just never know what you are going to get with him, though. He has a really tough matchup against a rapidly improving Bengals defense, a secondary that allows the sixth fewest fantasy points to receivers. It might be a down game for Davis this week. 

SLEEPERS

Hayden Hurst, TE, Bengals. Hurst hasn’t been off the charts this year, but pretty consistent for the Bengals. He has at least four receptions nine times. And he has been pretty involved in the offense since coming back from injury two weeks back. He has 11 targets his last two games and caught four passes each of those games. The Bills might focus on shutting down the high-powered receivers in the Bengals offense, giving Hurst a few more favorable looks. He might be a sneaky play for fantasy teams in this one. 

Elijah Mitchell, RB, 49ers. Mitchell returned to action late in the year and has found the end zone each of the last two games he has played. He had just 27 total yards last week but had 11 touches in the game. The 49ers are getting him the ball, so expect more of the same for a team that likes to get multiple backs involved offensively. Plus, he gets a Cowboys team this week that has allowed some big rushing games this season. Dallas has allowed 150-plus rushing yards six times, including 200-plus yards twice. Mitchell could really do some damage with double-digit touches this week.

Cole Beasley, WR, Bills. Beasley had a season-high five targets last week for the Bills. He had two catches for 35 yards and his first touchdown of the season. He has a familiarity with Josh Allen and this offense, so he is worth a dart throw for fantasy teams in what could be a high-scoring game. It would not surprise to see Beasley find the end zone once again. 

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Jaguars/Chiefs, Bengals/Bills, Giants/Eagles.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Starts, Sits, Sleepers: Week 12

Player Notes
Kendrick Bourne Nov 22 5:00am CT
Kendrick Bourne

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Kendrick Bourne took a big step back in the team's 41-22 dismantling of the Arizona Cardinals in Week 11. With Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall (knee) both on the field for the first time since Week 4, Bourne's snap share went from 68% in Week 10 to 25% in Week 11. Bourne finished the game without a single target. Bourne was riding high after back-to-back 142-yard games in Weeks 5 and 6, when injuries to Jennings, Pearsall, and George Kittle forced him to the top of the pecking order in the 49ers' passing game. As his teammates have recovered and returned to action, Bourne has seen his role diminished and has just nine targets over the 49ers' last five games. At this point, Bourne is simply a depth piece for San Francisco and holds very little potential to help fantasy football teams in Week 12.

From RotoBaller

Demarcus Robinson Nov 22 5:00am CT
Demarcus Robinson

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Demarcus Robinson saw little change in his utilisation in the wake of Ricky Pearsall's (knee) return in Week 11. Robinson's snap share has hovered around 25% for most of the season, and that trend continued in the 49ers' 41-22 win over the Cardinals when Robinson checked in for 26% of the team's offensive snaps. Another trend that continued was his limited involvement when he was on the field, as he saw just one target that he caught for a 13-yard gain. Through eight games, Robinson now has 12 receptions for 155 yards and no touchdowns on 22 targets. Despite the 49ers' offense missing Pearsall, Jauan Jennings, and George Kittle for multiple weeks due to injuries, Robinson never found a way to make an impact. Now that all three are sharing the field, Robinson stands little chance of being a dependable fantasy contributor and is a risky bet in Week 12.

From RotoBaller

George Kittle Nov 22 5:00am CT
George Kittle

San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle finished Week 11 with six catches for 67 yards and two touchdowns on six targets. His production made him the second-highest scoring tight end in fantasy football for the second week in a row. Even with wide receiver Ricky Pearsall (knee) returning to the lineup, Kittle remained a priority target for quarterback Brock Purdy (toe). Kittle can keep the good times rolling in Week 12, when the 49ers face the Carolina Panthers on Monday Night Football. The Panthers have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends this year and are seeing the highest average yards per target to the position. Kittle is one of the safer bets one can make on a tight end in fantasy football, and he should be locked into starting lineups for Week 12.

From RotoBaller

Jauan Jennings Nov 22 4:50am CT
Jauan Jennings

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings held onto his role at the top of the depth chart despite Ricky Pearsall's (knee) return in Week 11. Jennings, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle led the team in targets with six apiece, though Brock Purdy's (toe) three touchdown throws went to the latter two, leaving Jennings with a mediocre 4-54-0 line in a 41-22 rout of the Cardinals. Jennings is in line for a more productive game in Week 12 against the Carolina Panthers. Carolina's secondary has been slipping lately, resulting in a top-12 finish for an opposing wide receiver in three of the last four weeks (the gap filled by a top-24 performance). Jennings straddles the line between WR2 and WR3 in Week 12 projections and is worthy of a starting slot in fantasy football lineups.

From RotoBaller

Jacoby Brissett Nov 22 4:40am CT
Jacoby Brissett

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett played his way into the NFL record books for most completions in a regular-season game (47) during Week 11 against the San Francisco 49ers. After a historic performance, the 32-year-old veteran enters Week 12 as RotoBaller's 10th overall-ranked quarterback in a favorable matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars at home. The Jaguars' defense has allowed the 10th-most passing yards, the fifth-most passing touchdowns, and recorded the third-fewest sacks this season. He should have plenty of time in the pocket to pick apart a vulnerable Jaguars secondary and continue stuffing the stat sheet. Since taking over the offense, Brissett has averaged over 40 passing attempts per game and has taken the Cardinals' passing game to the next level. Brissett should be comfortably inserted into lineups as a QB1 playing in a high-volume passing attack against a struggling defense.

From RotoBaller

Brian Robinson Jr. Nov 22 4:40am CT
Brian Robinson Jr.

San Francisco 49ers running back Brian Robinson Jr.'s recent surge in production hit a snag in Week 11, but he could bounce back against a Carolina Panthers defense that has struggled against the run lately. In Weeks 9 and 10, Robinson scored touchdowns and posted his two highest rushing yard totals of 2025. He fell back to earth in Week 11, though, gaining 24 yards on eight carries in the 49ers' rout of the Cardinals. Despite his minimal role behind Christian McCaffrey, Robinson stands to benefit from the 49ers' upcoming matchup against the Panthers. Over the last four weeks, Carolina has given up 5.23 yards per carry to opposing running backs and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Robinson projects as an RB4 in Week 12 and has flex potential for fantasy football managers in a bind with four NFL teams on bye.

From RotoBaller

Ricky Pearsall Nov 22 4:40am CT
Ricky Pearsall

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Ricky Pearsall's (knee) returned to action in Week 11 after a six-week absence due to a knee injury sustained in Week 4. Unfortunately, the second-year wideout had just one catch for no gain on two targets in the 49ers' 41-22 trouncing of the Cardinals. On the positive side, Pearsall's knee injury appears to be in the rearview. Pearsall had a 75% snap share in Week 11 and logged a full practice on Thursday and Friday ahead of the 49ers' upcoming game against the Carolina Panthers. Fantasy football managers are advised to keep an eye out for the 49ers' final injury report, which will be due out Saturday as the team plays on Monday night. Barring any sort of reinjury in his final practice of the week, Pearsall projects as a WR3 and can be plugged into starting lineups for Week 12.

From RotoBaller

Brock Purdy Nov 22 4:30am CT
Brock Purdy

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (toe) put forth a solid effort in his return to action in Week 11 after missing the previous six games. In what was just his third start of the season, Purdy threw for just 200 yards but did so with a tidy 73.1% completion percentage and completed three touchdown passes with no turnovers. Purdy finished as the overall QB6 in the 49ers' win over the Cardinals and will be in the mix for another top-10 performance when San Francisco squares off against the Carolina Panthers on Monday night in Week 12. The Panthers rank in the bottom five in the league in sack rate and pressure rate, so Purdy should have plenty of time to pick apart their secondary, which has allowed the sixth-most passing yards over the last four weeks. Fantasy football managers can plug Purdy into starting lineups with confidence in Week 12.

From RotoBaller

Christian McCaffrey Nov 22 4:30am CT
Christian McCaffrey

San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey was the overall RB1 in Week 11, his third such finish in the last five weeks and his tenth top-10 finish in 2025. McCaffrey is in a good spot to attempt a repeat against the Carolina Panthers on Monday night. Much of McCaffrey's production in 2025 has come as a pass-catcher, but with Carolina offering up 4.72 yards per carry to opposing running backs this season, there is reason to believe he will do more damage on the ground than usual in Week 12. Carolina has been especially bad over the last four weeks, giving up a league-worst six rushing touchdowns and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. It goes without saying that McCaffrey should be in starting lineups in Week 12, but fantasy football managers are justified in feeling especially optimistic about what the superstar will produce in his first game against his former team.

From RotoBaller

Rhamondre Stevenson Nov 22 1:00am CT
Rhamondre Stevenson

New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been removed from the injury report after a toe injury sidelined him for three consecutive games. He'll return to action this Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals, presumably without any limitations. This week's backfield dynamic in New England is a little unclear. Stevenson held the lead-back role when healthy, but rookie TreVeyon Henderson looked excellent in his three-week stint as the starter. We expect to see Henderson remain heavily involved this weekend, and he even has a strong chance to lead the backfield in snaps. Nevertheless, the coaching staff has shown its commitment to Stevenson time and time again, which means we should expect him to handle healthy volume in his return to play. He's averaging 12.4 touches per game this season, and even if that number drops a little in Week 12, he's still a solid RB3/flex option. It also helps that he's facing off against a Bengals defense allowing the most fantasy points and second-most receiving yards to opposing running backs in 2025.

From RotoBaller

TreVeyon Henderson Nov 22 12:50am CT
TreVeyon Henderson

New England Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson looked terrific as the team's lead back over the last few weeks, but the coaching staff refused to commit to him as their top option out of the backfield for Week 12 against the Cincinnati Bengals. Henderson's increased role was a result of Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) missing time, but now that Stevenson has been removed from the injury report, we expect the backfield dynamic to look a little different. While we expected Henderson to lose some volume when Stevenson came back, we'd be a little surprised to see the rookie lose his lead-back role after he tallied 264 rushing yards, 66 receiving yards, and five touchdowns over the last three games. Nevertheless, head coach Mike Vrabel wouldn't name Henderson the starter. Don't be surprised if Stevenson remains a thorn in Henderson's fantasy managers' sides once again this week. The rookie has RB1 upside, but he ranks as more of an RB2 with Stevenson back in the mix.

From RotoBaller

Drake Maye Nov 22 12:40am CT
Drake Maye

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye should bounce back as a high-end fantasy QB1 for Sunday's Week 12 contest against the Cincinnati Bengals. The former No. 3 pick delivered a modest 281 yards and one touchdown last week, falling shy of his high-end QB1 upside. He should get back to that tier this week, though, as the Bengals have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in 2025, as well as the third-most passing touchdowns. In addition to Maye getting a favorable matchup, he'll also benefit from the return of two key targets. Both Kayshon Boutte (hamstring) and Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) have been removed from the injury report and will return following their multi-game absences. Maye is the overall QB2 in fantasy scoring this season, and he's well on his way to a phenomenal MVP candidacy. He should be started in all fantasy leagues as he takes on the Bengals.

From RotoBaller

David Montgomery Nov 22 12:20am CT
David Montgomery

Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery was held in check by the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 11, recording 27 rushing yards on just six carries. Montgomery has now failed to score a touchdown in four out of his last five games, cracking 45 rushing yards just once in that span. While there's no question Montgomery has taken a backseat to Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs this season, there could be reason for optimism around Montgomery's outlook for Week 12 against the New York Giants. Through 11 weeks, New York is allowing the most yards per carry (5.5) to opposing running backs in the NFL. The Giants have also given up 15 rushing touchdowns, tied for second-most among NFL defenses. If there's a game for Montgomery to rediscover his touchdown-scoring ways, it could be against New York. Fantasy managers should view him as a solid RB2 option in Week 12.

From RotoBaller

Jake Bates Nov 22 12:20am CT
Jake Bates

Detroit Lions kicker Jake Bates had an underwhelming game in Week 11, making just one field goal and missing his lone extra-point try in his team's 16-9 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. On paper, Bates has a much lighter matchup in Week 12, when the Lions host the New York Giants inside the domed Ford Field. In his career to this point, Bates is averaging 8.5 points per game at home, compared to 7.4 per game on the road. The Giants have also been one of the easiest teams for opposing offenses to light up the scoreboard against so far this season. New York enters Week 12 allowing 27.3 points per game and has allowed 31.2 points per game over the last five weeks. Bates could have plenty of chances to put points on the board for the Lions against the Giants and profiles as a must-start fantasy kicker in Week 12.

From RotoBaller

Kalif Raymond Nov 22 12:10am CT
Kalif Raymond

Detroit Lions wide receiver Kalif Raymond was blanked by the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 11, finishing the game with zero receptions on zero targets. The 31-year-old has just 13 receptions across 10 games this season, and he's gone without a catch in four out of his last six outings. On a more positive note, Raymond played 64% of Detroit's offensive snaps against Philadelphia, his highest rate since Week 1. With Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (back) on Injured Reserve due to a back injury, Detroit may be forced to lean more heavily on three-wide receiver sets. Raymond also gets a more favorable matchup on paper in Week 12 against the New York Giants. New York has allowed the sixth-most passing yards (2,641) in the NFL so far this season. Still, Raymond has not proven to be a consistent enough target-earner to be a fantasy-relevant producer so far this season. He remains a risky start in Week 12.

From RotoBaller

Isaac TeSlaa Nov 22 12:10am CT
Isaac TeSlaa

With Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (back) on Injured Reserve due to a back injury, there's an opportunity for rookie wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa (oblique) to step up as a more consistent target-earner in Detroit. However, TeSlaa recorded zero catches on one target in the Lions' first game without LaPorta, a Week 11 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. TeSlaa has not earned more than one target in a game since Week 3 and has hauled in just four catches for the entire season. Additionally, he remains behind Kalif Raymond on his team's wide receiver depth chart and has played 18 fewer offensive snaps than Raymond in each of the last two weeks. TeSlaa is officially listed as questionable to play in Week 12 due to an oblique injury, but he played through the same injury in Week 11. The Lions have a favorable matchup on paper in Week 12 against the New York Giants, who have allowed the sixth-most passing yards (2,641) in the NFL through 11 weeks. Still, TeSlaa remains an unreliable option for fantasy managers until he proves to be a more consistent part of the Detroit passing game.

From RotoBaller

Roschon Johnson Nov 22 12:00am CT
Roschon Johnson

Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson (thumb) missed two consecutive practices and has been ruled out for Sunday's Week 12 contest against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Johnson was added to the injury report on Thursday and hasn't been able to get on the field since. The extent of his injury is unknown, but it won't have major ramifications in fantasy football anyway. He has just two carries for 17 yards through seven games this season, remaining buried in a depth role behind veteran D'Andre Swift and rookie Kyle Monangai. Travis Homer (hamstring, knee) has also been ruled out for this week, meaning Chicago may have to activate Brittain Brown from the practice squad to fill the No. 3 running back role.

From RotoBaller

Jahmyr Gibbs Nov 22 12:00am CT
Jahmyr Gibbs

Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs was one of his team's lone bright spots in their 16-9 Week 11 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Gibbs rushed for just 39 yards on 12 carries against the Eagles, but he hauled in five receptions for 107 yards on eight targets. The 23-year-old has now recorded at least 140 scrimmage yards in three out of his last four games and has already topped 1,000 scrimmage yards for the season. On paper, Gibbs has a good chance to extend his hot streak in Week 12 against the New York Giants. New York is allowing the most yards per carry (5.5) to opposing running backs in the NFL so far this season. There's also reason to believe that Gibbs will continue to feature heavily in Detroit's passing game. In the two games since Lions head coach Dan Campbell has taken over as the team's play-caller, Gibbs has been targeted 12 times. He profiles as a must-start fantasy running back in Week 12 against New York.

From RotoBaller

Zamir White Nov 22 12:00am CT
Zamir White

Las Vegas Raiders running back Zamir White continues to be a non-factor with his team, and he remains off the fantasy radar in all leagues. The 26-year-old has been a healthy scratch for five games in a row, and he's likely headed for his sixth consecutive absence in Week 12 as the Raiders take on the Cleveland Browns. Ashton Jeanty has control of the top spot in Vegas' backfield, while Raheem Mostert and Dylan Laube have edged out White for depth roles. In the four games he did play earlier this year, White averaged just 2.5 carries, 6.3 rushing yards, 0.8 catches, and 4.8 receiving yards. Even if one of the running backs ahead of White were to get injured, he'd likely still be a non-factor in all fantasy football leagues.

From RotoBaller

Jameson Williams Nov 21 11:50pm CT
Jameson Williams

After an underwhelming start to the 2025 season, Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams has caught fire in recent weeks. Over his last five games, the 24-year-old has recorded 20 receptions for 339 yards and four touchdowns on 29 targets. On paper, Williams should have a good chance to extend his hot streak in Week 12 against the New York Giants. Through 11 weeks, the Giants have allowed the sixth-most passing yards (2,641) and seventh-most passing touchdowns (19) in the NFL. Recent developments in Detroit also favor Williams. In the two games since head coach Dan Campbell took over as his team's play-caller, Williams has been targeted 14 times and is averaging 20.7 yards per reception. Additionally, the Lions will be without tight end Sam LaPorta (back) in Week 12, which will lessen the target competition in Detroit. Williams profiles as a high-end fantasy WR2 in Week 12.

From RotoBaller