Wed Jan 18 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Kelce should get plenty of targets
And then there were eight. Yes, eight teams left for a right to go to the Super Bowl. It should be a great weekend of action. I think all the games should be very competitive and could go either way. I really mean that. The Giants are big underdogs but just keep getting better each week. And Daniel Jones is playing some great football. So needless to say, I’m really looking forward to the action this week. It should be great!
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
If I’m an NFL team, I’m not sure I pursue Tom Brady. I just don’t know how much he has left in the tank. The only scenario that makes sense to be is if I draft a quarterback I don’t trust as a rookie. You hate to count him out, but I’m just not sure he is going to be a difference maker at this stage of his career. He just misses on some throws he normally makes and will be another year older next season.
I can’t see how the Chargers bring back Brandon Staley as head coach. That teams has too much talent to disappoint like they have this year. That offense needs a big-time spark, wasting some elite talent on that side of the ball. And Staley playing his starters in a meaningless game at the end of the year made no sense. It cost him with Mike Williams getting hurt. And then he blows a game in the playoffs he was up by 27 points. It sounds like the Chargers will bring him back, though, which is not good news for that team in my view.
You have to wonder what the Cowboys are going to do at kicker after Brett Maher missed four extra points last week. That has to be a huge concern for them. Every point matters so much in the playoffs. A missed extra point could be the difference between moving on or going home. I can’t see the team having much faith in him after that display last week. It is tough to make a change at this point, though, especially with Maher kicking so well during the regular season.
So the big question this offseason is where does Lamar Jackson land. He is not coming back to the Ravens. That much I do know. I like the Jets as a fit. A young, up and coming team that sorely needs a franchise quarterback. He would have a lot of talent to work with offensively and could be a good fit there. I actually like the Falcons too as a landing spot. They have a strong running game and solid offensive line. Plus, it would be great seeing Jackson throw passes to Kyle Pitts. It should be an interesting offseason regarding Jackson. The good news is you can expect him to get moved before the draft, so we should know sooner than later.
That was quite the performance from Trevor Lawrence last week. He showed me a lot, coming back from his four interceptions. He could have folded and quit after the start to his game. That didn’t happen. He kept plugging along and adjusted to his first-half mistakes. Lawrence just keeps impressing me on a weekly basis. He is going to be a good one for years to come.
I’m anxious to see how Brock Purdy responds when he is called on in a close game. The stage hasn’t been too big for him to start his career, but it is going to just keep getting bigger for him as his team advances in the playoffs. He has answered every question to date, which has been impressive. How will he do if asked to complete a game-winning drive at the end of a game? It will be fun to watch.
News and Notes: The Titans hired 49ers director of pro personnel Ran Carthon as their new general manager. Carthon comes from a great organization and could be a great get for the Titans organization. . . . .Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has informed interested teams that he's staying in Detroit in 2023. This is great news for the Lions offense, keeping Johnson in the fold for next season.
HOT PLAYS
Christian Kirk, WR, Jaguars. Kirk had a great showing in the Jaguars playoff opener, scoring 21.8 fantasy points. He has 21-plus points two straight games. He has been great as the top target in the Jaguars passing game. Expect more of the same this week against Kansas City. Kirk had nine receptions for 105 yards and two touchdowns against the Chiefs in Week 10. The Chiefs allow the eighth most fantasy points to receivers.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce is a must start every week, but look for the Chiefs to lean on him even more in the playoffs. Kelce has not scored touchdown since Week 12, but has four games with double-digit fantasy points during the stretch. He gets his weekly chances. Kelce had six catches for 81 yards and a touchdown against this same Jaguars team earlier this season. The Jaguars also have struggled to stop the tight end this year, allowing the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends.
Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles. Sanders had his best season to date this year. He topped 1,200-rushing yards and scored 11 touchdowns in the Eagles explosive offense. He has enjoyed some huge games, including one against the Giants in Week 14. He ran 17 times for a season-high 144 yards and two scores in that game. He could get a big workload again this week against a Giants team that ranks 27th overall against the run.
COLD PLAYS
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. Elliott is becoming a touchdown dependent fantasy play. He just isn’t doing much outside of finding the end zone. He has fewer than 40-rushing yards his last three games. He has run 21 times for just 37 yards his last two. We just aren’t sure he is worth the risk right now for fantasy teams. The 49ers also have been great against the run this year, ranking first overall in fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs. The 49ers are second overall against the run, allowing 77.7-rushing yards per game.
Isaiah Hodgins, WR, Giants. Hodgins had his best game of the season last week, catching eight passes for 105 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. He has been a big surprise down the stretch for the Giants, emerging as a top threat in the passing game opposite Richie Jams. But even with that said, he has just two games all season with more than 50 yards. He has been mediocre more than outstanding. And a matchup against a great Eagles secondary is not a good one for him. Philadelphia is first overall against the pass, allowing just 179.8-passing yards per game.
Gabriel Davis, WR, Bills. Davis has been up and down all season, frustrating fantasy owners. He was up last week, catching six passes for 113 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. It was a great showing for Davis. You just never know what you are going to get with him, though. He has a really tough matchup against a rapidly improving Bengals defense, a secondary that allows the sixth fewest fantasy points to receivers. It might be a down game for Davis this week.
SLEEPERS
Hayden Hurst, TE, Bengals. Hurst hasn’t been off the charts this year, but pretty consistent for the Bengals. He has at least four receptions nine times. And he has been pretty involved in the offense since coming back from injury two weeks back. He has 11 targets his last two games and caught four passes each of those games. The Bills might focus on shutting down the high-powered receivers in the Bengals offense, giving Hurst a few more favorable looks. He might be a sneaky play for fantasy teams in this one.
Elijah Mitchell, RB, 49ers. Mitchell returned to action late in the year and has found the end zone each of the last two games he has played. He had just 27 total yards last week but had 11 touches in the game. The 49ers are getting him the ball, so expect more of the same for a team that likes to get multiple backs involved offensively. Plus, he gets a Cowboys team this week that has allowed some big rushing games this season. Dallas has allowed 150-plus rushing yards six times, including 200-plus yards twice. Mitchell could really do some damage with double-digit touches this week.
Cole Beasley, WR, Bills. Beasley had a season-high five targets last week for the Bills. He had two catches for 35 yards and his first touchdown of the season. He has a familiarity with Josh Allen and this offense, so he is worth a dart throw for fantasy teams in what could be a high-scoring game. It would not surprise to see Beasley find the end zone once again.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Jaguars/Chiefs, Bengals/Bills, Giants/Eagles.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert couldn't get it going against the Lions, managing just two catches for 24 yards on five targets. After a couple troubling performances in a row, the question for Goedert boils down to this: have his scoring opportunities dried up, or is he due? He'll look to get out of his rough patch this Sunday as he travels to Dallas to take on the Cowboys in a rematch of the season opener. Last time he played his division rivals, Goedert recorded seven catches, which is the second-most he's had in a game this year. After showing promise against this opponent already-even without finding the end zone-bet on him to have another solid outing. He's a low-end TE1 in Week 12.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles kicker Jake Elliott had his most made field goals in a game so far this season last week against the Lions, nailing three-of-three and adding on an extra point for a perfect game. His longest make came from 49 yards out, so his performance didn't translate to a ton of fantasy points, but it was certainly nothing to scoff at (especially when compared to his previous point totals). This week, Elliott will kick against the Cowboys, who allow the second-most points per game (29.3) to opposing offenses in the league and give up the second-most fantasy points to kickers. For managers who stream kickers, Elliott is a solid option in Week 12, but don't be surprised if he gets back to his usual ways and has an underwhelming showing.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley set his season high for attempts last week against the Lions, carrying the ball 26 times for 83 yards. Given the opportunities, it wasn't a very productive game for Barkley and he'll try to turn things around this weekend against the Cowboys. One of his four rushing touchdowns this season came against Dallas in Week 1-a game where he also accounted for four catches and 84 total yards. The Cowboys have had trouble stopping the run this year, allowing 11 touchdowns through 10 games as well as giving up an average of 131.4 yards on the ground in those contests. They also allow the fifth-most fantasy points to RBs. The Eagles clearly trust Barkley to handle heavy workloads at this point in the season, giving him 62 rush attempts over the last three games, which should make managers optimistic about possible boom performances going forward. Consider him a solid RB1 in Week 12.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles running back Tank Bigsby was the only backup RB to record any stats for his team last week, getting four carries for 34 yards versus Detroit. At this point, it's a complete toss-up on who plays second fiddle to Saquon Barkley in the Philly backfield. Bigsby has shown promise with the time on the field he's gotten, but next week it could be Will Shipley's number getting called. It doesn't seem like a good idea to have any Eagles back rostered in fantasy outside of Barkley, and if he does go down, it might just be a mad scramble to the waiver wire until it becomes clear who the true replacement would be.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown led his team in targets by a landslide last week, being thrown to 11 times while the next closest (Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith) had just five looks. Unfortunately, Brown's longest catch was for 12 yards and he totaled a mediocre 49 on the night. His seven catches made it a satisfactory evening for PPR formats, but this outing against the Lions continues Brown's theme of the season-getting plenty of passes but not tons of production to show for it. Luckily, his upcoming game is against a Cowboys defense that allows the third-most fantasy points to WRs this season. It's a prime opportunity to bounce back for Brown after he mustered only one catch in his previous meeting with Dallas. Jalen Hurts clearly still trusts him as a first option, and it's unlikely he'll disappoint twice against such an enticing matchup. Consider Brown a low-end WR2 in Week 12.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith could only haul in one of his five targets last week against Detroit, finishing with a season-worst eight yards. It's safe to say it can't get much worse than this for Smith, and a peak could be following this valley with his upcoming face-off against the Cowboys. Dallas has allowed 23 touchdowns through the air in their 10 games, which is the second-most in the league. They've also given up over 250 passing yards in a game five times. Smith did struggle in his first bout against the Cowboys-with his 16 yards being his previous season-low before last Sunday's Lions game-but trust him to get back into the groove he was in over the last few weeks. He's a low-end WR2 this week.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles rookie wide receiver Darius Cooper last week logged his lowest snap count since returning from injury, getting on the field for just three plays against the Detroit Lions. Now past the halfway mark of the season, it's seeming more and more likely that Cooper will not see any catches before the 2025 campaign has ended. Even when the receivers above him on the depth chart have been sidelined or had rough games, Cooper has not gotten his opportunities. He should continue to be left off of fantasy rosters as Philly faces the Cowboys this weekend.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts had another one-touchdown outing last week against the Lions, making for back-to-back underwhelming fantasy performances. Philly's offense has struggled overall in their last couple of games, but their woes should come to an end this Sunday as they have their second meeting with the Cowboys. Dallas gives up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and allows the third-most passing yards per game (249.9) in the NFL. But back in Week 1, it was Hurts' run game that really impressed. He opened the season against his division rivals with 62 yards and two scores on the ground, but managed just 152 passing yards. As the Eagles look to hang onto the top seed in the NFC, Hurts is a must-start QB1 in a very favorable matchup.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles running back Tank Bigsby hasn't been able to make much of an impact on the field this season. In Week 8, Bigsby rushed for 104 yards on nine yards, but outside of that Bigsby has been a non-factor. The 23-year-old has seen seven carries over the last two weeks as the primary back to Saquon Barkley. The expectation is that Bigsby is going to continue having a minimal role in the offense as long as Barkley is healthy. Bigsby could be worth stashing in deep leagues because if something happens to Barkley he'll likely have a larger role. Outside of that, Bigsby can be ignored while Barkley is healthy.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver KaVontae Turpin hasn't done much in the receiving game over the last few weeks. Turpin has been held to two receptions or fewer in four straight games. Last week, Turpin hauled in one of his two targets for zero yards in the win over the Las Vegas Raiders. At this point, Turpin has fallen too far down on the depth chart to be a weekly asset. Right now, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are looking like the only reliable wideouts on this roster. Turpin is a helpful special teams player, but isn't someone that is going to help in fantasy leagues right now.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots running back Terrell Jennings has been a non-factor in the offense in recent weeks. Jennings only saw four carries in Week 10 and didn't play any offensive snaps against the New York Jets last week. TreVeyon Henderson has been excellent over the last two games, so Jennings hasn't been needed in the rushing game. Fellow back Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) is currently questionable to suit up against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 12. If he returns, Jennings is unlikely to touch the field at all. Regardless, Jennings is expected to have a minimal role in the offense going forward.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson was a non-factor during Thursday's Week 12 matchup against the Buffalo Bills. The 25-year-old was not targeted at all in the passing game. Hutchinson rushed the ball once for nine yards in the win. This is now the second time in the last three games that Hutchinson has been held without a catch. There is certainly some potential here, but Hutchinson clearly isn't part of the weekly gameplan right now. He's someone worth stashing in dynasty leagues due to his potential, but isn't someone that needs to be rostered in redraft leagues.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns tight end Harold Fannin Jr. turned in a quiet outing in a Week 11 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, catching just two passes for 26 yards on a windy afternoon in Cleveland. The rookie will look to bounce back on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 12. Fannin has been impressive in his debut season, catching 44 passes for 422 yards and two touchdowns across 10 contests. He will hope to keep that going in a tough matchup against a Raiders defense that is allowing just the 28th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season. Fannin remains a focal point in the Cleveland passing attack but the matchup for him in Week 12 isn't ideal. Treat him as a mid-range TE2 in fantasy for this weekend.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Ryan Flournoy has seen his role in the passing game decrease in recent weeks. Last week, Flournoy hauled in his lone target for a two-yard touchdown in the win over the Las Vegas Raiders. Flournoy has finished with two or fewer receptions in four straight games. Sadly, there aren't enough targets to go around with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens seeing a majority of the action. At the moment, Flournoy is just a depth option in this offense. He should be considered a touchdown-dependent option for the upcoming Week 12 matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles.
From RotoBaller
Fantasy managers seeking tight end help might have been looking at Buffalo Bills TE Dawson Knox in recent weeks after Dalton Kincaid injured his hamstring in Week 10. Despite Kincaid missing Weeks 11 and 12, Knox has proven to be unreliable, catching just four passes for 40 scoreless yards on seven targets. The 29-year-old was especially disappointing in the 44-32 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last weekend, when he caught one of three targets for 23 yards on a day when the Bills' offense was marching up and down the field. Knox had three grabs on four targets for 17 yards in the Thursday night loss in Houston to the Texans. He played a season-high 86% of the offensive snaps against the Texans, but it led to another lackluster game. Kincaid could be back in Week 13 against the Pittsburgh Steelers to take over top TE pass-catching duties in Buffalo.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers kicker Chris Boswell made both of his field goal attempts and all four of his extra-point tries in a 34-12 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 11. He'll look to stay perfect in a Week 12 road matchup with the Chicago Bears. Chicago surrenders the seventh-most points per game to opponents, and while this contest isn't necessarily expected to be a shootout, it still carries a healthy projected point total. If quarterback Aaron Rodgers (wrist) is unable to play on Sunday, Boswell could play an even more pivotal role in keeping the Steelers on the scoreboard. As one of the most consistent kickers in the league, Boswell has earned the trust of fantasy managers and should remain locked into starting lineups this week.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku (knee) got in a full practice on Friday and is listed without a final injury designation after missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday this week. The veteran tight end will look to break a quiet stretch in Week 12's road matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders. Njoku has caught just three passes for 28 yards and a touchdown over his past two games as the Browns continue to lean on rookie tight end Harold Fannin Jr. at Njoku's expense in the passing attack. To make matters worse for Njoku, the Raiders have been tough on tight ends this season, allowing just the 28th-most fantasy points per game to the position. Njoku sets up as a low-end TE2 heading into Week 12.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Jonnu Smith failed to catch a single pass in Week 11, marking his first game without a reception since Week 4 of last season. Though the matchup against the Chicago Bears is favorable, there is little reason to expect Smith to bounce back to fantasy relevance in Week 12. The Steelers remain unpredictable in how they deploy their tight ends, with Smith, Pat Freiermuth, and Darnell Washington all playing significant snaps. It is clear, however, that Smith's fantasy value is entirely touchdown-dependent, as he has topped 20 receiving yards just four times this year. As the TE29 in RotoBaller's Week 12 rankings, fantasy managers should look elsewhere for a streaming option.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen said on Friday that defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (neck) has been in the building and is "very" optimistic that he can return this year, according to James Boyd of The Athletic. Buckner has been on IR due to a neck injury since early November, and he won't be eligible to return to the Colts defense until Week 15 against the Seattle Seahawks. The 31-year-old's return will be a huge boost for Indy's interior defensive line later this season, though, as the three-time Pro Bowler had 42 tackles (26 solo), four sacks, nine tackles for loss, and 13 QB hits in nine starts in his sixth season with the Colts before injuring his neck. Buckner has mostly been durable in his 10 NFL seasons, but he also missed five games in 2024 with an ankle injury. Despite being on the wrong side of 30, Buckner has remained productive rushing the passer when he's been healthy.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth had just one reception last week against the Cincinnati Bengals, a team that he has dominated throughout his career. His role in the offense remains incredibly unpredictable heading into a Week 12 bout with the Chicago Bears. The Steelers are seemingly taking a hot-hand approach at the tight end position, giving more snaps and opportunities to whichever player makes an early impact. Last week, that was Darnell Washington, who posted a career high in receiving yardage and could be featured more in the coming weeks. Even with the Bears offering a decent matchup for Freiermuth, fantasy managers can't reasonably depend on him in starting lineups on Sunday.
From RotoBaller