Wed Sep 13 10:34am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Hopkins looked great in Week 1
Here is my advice for Week 1. You have to process the info, but don’t overreact. The best example I can make is my son’s fantasy league with his high school buddies. They all fly off the handle over a week of action, making crazy trades and drops. They are teenagers that are impulsive, though. Don’t be a teenager when it comes to managing your fantasy roster. You need to take it all in and make informed decisions going forward. A week doesn’t make a season.
With that said, here are my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
I would worry if I’m a Garrett Wilson owner. He produced with a bad quarterback last season but you didn’t pay nearly the price you paid for him in drafts this year. He is going to have a hard time matching his draft capital price tag with Zach Wilson throwing him passes. So if you can get a good trade for him now, I say go for it.
I also need to mention you have to be heartbroken if you are a Jets fan. You finally get your elite quarterback and seem setup for a possible magical season, but that comes to a screeching halt just a few minutes into your season. It was a tough scene. You have to wonder if Aaron Rodgers returns from this one at his age. It will be interesting to watch this offseason.
I wish I could have a better, more definitive answer with the Ravens running back situation. I really have no idea how that one is going to play out. I would suggest Gus Edwards out of all the options, but you never know with that running back room. Justice Hill is the best pass catcher and Melvin Gordon has the most experience. They will be in the mix. I actually think the best answer might be Kareem Hunt if he were to sign. I think he would be the best option out of the group. We’ll see.
Tyreek Hill sure looked great in Week 1. His talk of topping 2,000 yards doesn’t seem so far fetched after that performance. He could have a monster year if that first game is any indication. Hill looked as polished as ever and the Dolphins continue to do a great job of scheming plays for him.
My biggest surprise of Week 1 was the Rams beating the Seahawks pretty handily. I thought they were going to be awful this year, but you can’t underestimate coach Sean McVay. He is a terrific head coach that had that team ready to play to open the season. I didn’t think the Rams offense was going to be any good, but McVay got that team rolling with a lot of unknown players. Maybe this team will have some fantasy value outside of Cooper Kupp.
The tight end position is off to a great start. Wow, what a disaster of a first week for that position. Hopefully, this is not a trend for the rest of the year, but you have to wonder if it will be based on last year. The position dropped off in a big hurry after the top five last year. There could be a repeat coming. Stay tuned.
The Colts might need to scale back their designed runs for rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson. He took a beating that first game and is already banged up just a game into the season. It will be hard for him to stay upright if he has more games like Week 1. But with that said, he looked pretty good, especially throwing the ball, which was the concern for him. It was a good first start for the rookie. He topped 24 fantasy points and showed his huge weekly fantasy potential.
Brock Purdy is so undervalued in the fantasy community. He is now up to seven straight games with multiple touchdowns. He is as consistent as it gets at the quarterback spot and I don’t see him slowing down in this offense. Purdy has some of the top playmakers to work with at every position and one of the best offensive lines in football blocking for him. He is setup for a big second season.
News and Notes: Seattle signed offensive tackle Jason Peters on Tuesday. The veteran tackle could move into the starting lineup at some point because of injuries along the line for the Seahawks in Week 1. . . .The Jets confirmed that quarterback Zach Wilson will start moving forward after Aaron Rodgers suffered a torn left Achilles in Week 1. New York might bring in a veteran to back him up, but it looks like Wilson is the guy for now. . . . .The Panthers signed running back Tarik Cohen to their practice squad on Wednesday. He has been out of the league the last few seasons, but is healthy and looking to earn a roster spot.
HOT PLAYS
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Titans. Hopkins had a very encouraging start to his season, piling up 13 targets. He caught seven passes for 65 yards and looked as good as ever. As long as he is healthy and playing, his weekly production should be solid in this offense. Expect another good game this week against the Chargers. The Chargers allowed the most fantasy points to receivers last week and a league-high 466-passing yards.
Mike Evans, WR, Bucs. It was thought that Evans was slowing down and could be getting fewer looks with Chris Godwin around. Well, if Week 1 is any indication, his downfall was overblown. He led the Bucs in targets with 10 and caught six passes for 66 yards. It was a great start for the talented veteran receiver. He can keep it going this week against Chicago. The Bears allowed 245-passing yards last week and three passing touchdowns.
Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff led the Lions to a huge road win last week against the defending Super Bowl champs. His fantasy numbers were just alright, though, throwing for 253 yards and a touchdown. We expect a much better showing this week in his home opener against Seattle. The Seahawks allowed the third most passing yards last week (334) to a Rams offense that seemed to be lacking top options in the passing game. Goff can produce big against this unit.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots. Ezekiel Elliott did get some playing time last week for the Patriots, but Stevenson still payed 73 percent of the snaps and had 18 touches. He scored 14.9 fantasy points despite rushing for just 25 yards. Stevenson is the top back in this offense and will get a lot of weekly touches, especially in the passing game. Look for him to really get it going this week against Miami. The Dolphins allowed the most rushing yards in all of football last week and second most fantasy points.
D.J. Moore, WR, Bears. Moore had a really disappointing start to his season after a lot of offseason hype. He caught just two passes for 25 yards on two targets. Expect the Bears to make it a point to get him the ball early and often this week, especially after his performance last week. Plus, he has a better matchup against the Bucs, a team that allowed the third most fantasy points to receivers. Don’t bench Moore because of last week.
COLD PLAYS
Najee Harris, RB, Steelers. Harris had a poor start to his season, rushing just six times for 31 yards. He scored just 5.3 fantasy points. He also split a lot of work with Jaylen Warren, playing 52 percent of the snaps compared to 40 percent for Warren. Things might not be much better for Harris this week against Cleveland. The Browns allowed the seventh fewest fantasy points to running backs last week and their entire defense looked great. If you have better options, you might want to go with them.
Odell Beckham, WR, Ravens. Beckham didn’t do much in his Ravens debut, catching two passes for 37 yards on three targets. He was on the field a lot, but struggled to get open and rack up the targets. Beckham might be shaping up to be a matchup play this season. And a game this week against Cincinnati isn't a great one for him. The Bengals allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to receivers last week.
Russell Wilson, QB, Broncos. Wilson looked a little better last week compared to last year, but still wasn’t great. He failed to throw for 200 yards and scored just 17 fantasy points. And this came against just a so-so Raiders defense at home. He is more of a platoon option for fantasy teams. A game this week against Washington isn’t a great one for Wilson. He gets a tough matchup against a relentless Commanders pass rush. Plus, Washington allowed the second fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks in Week 1.
Isiah Pachecho, RB, Chiefs. You never know what is going on with the Chiefs backs and last week proved that once again. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the first back to get carries in the game. Pacheco did end up playing the most of the three backs, though. It was concerning to see Edwards-Helaire out there early. He might have a bigger role than most thought. Pacheco failed to reach double-digit fantasy points and had 12 touches for 54 yards. It might not be much better this week against Jacksonville. The Jaguars allowed the second fewest fantasy points to running backs and just 65-rushing yards.
Allen Lazard, WR, Jets. Lazard had just four targets in Week 1 and caught two passes for 46 yards. The loss of Aaron Rodgers is a huge blow to this entire offense and passing game, especially for Lazard. He had a good rapport with Rodgers, so you have to wonder about Lazard producing consistently with a new quarterback throwing him passes. The Jets are an offense to avoid this week against Dallas. The Cowboys might have the best offense in football and allowed the second fewest fantasy points to receivers in Week 1.
SLEEPERS
Curtis Samuel, WR, Commanders. Samuel gets lost in the shuffle sometimes but he remains a big part of this Commanders offense. Samuel played 65 percent of the snaps in Week 1. He topped double-digit fantasy points and had five receptions for 54 yard. He also ran once for six yards. He will get his weekly touches. Samuel gets a solid matchup this week against a Broncos secondary that could contain the top two receivers for the Commanders, but could struggle to stop Samuel out of the slot. The Broncos allowed the sixth most fantasy points to receivers last week.
Kayshon Boutte, WR, Patriots. Boutte did not get a catch his first NFL game but he was targeted four times in the game. And he played the second most snaps at receiver for the Patriots, ahead of JuJu Smith-Schuster. This bodes well for Boutte to produce going forward. We think good things could happen for him this week. Boutte plays a Dolphins defense that allowed the third most fantasy points to receivers. He could surprise in Week 2.
Jamaal Williams, RB, Saints. Williams dominated the work at running back last week, playing 75 percent of the snaps. He had 20 touches in the game. Expect more of the same from Williams in Week 2 against Carolina. The Panthers allowed the most fantasy points to running backs in Week 1. If he gets 20-plus touches this week, look for Williams to have a big game for fantasy teams.
Noah Fant, TE, Seahawks. Fant did not have a single catch or target in Week 1. It was not a good start for Fant. But he did play the most snaps of any tight end for the Seahawks and is the best pass catcher at the position for the team. Fant can get it going this week against the Lions, a team that allowed the fourth most fantasy points to tight ends in Week 1.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans. The Texans seemed comfortable with turning over their offense to Stroud. He attempted 44 passes in his first NFL game. He did not score a touchdown but also didn’t throw an interception with all those pass attempts. He also did this on the road against a very good defense. Look for Stroud to score this week and produce better at home against the Colts. Indy truggled to stop the Jaguars passing attack last week, allowing the ninth most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Vikings/Eagles, Seahawks/Lions, Chiefs/Jaguars.
Low Scoring Games: Bears/Bucs, Colts/Texans, Packers/Falcons, Giants/Cardinals, Jets/Cowboys, Commanders/Broncos, Saints/Panthers, Browns/Steelers.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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According to Zac Jackson of The Athletic, Cleveland Browns veteran running back Jerome Ford is likely to open the 2025 season in the RB1 role. The team just selected former Ohio State running back Quinshon Judkins and former Tennessee running back Dylan Sampson in the first four rounds of the 2025 NFL Draft, so this backfield could be difficult to navigate for fantasy football purposes. However, Ford's familiarity with Kevin Stefanski and his pro experience could give him the early nod. The 25-year-old has flashed at times over the last two seasons, compiling 308 carries for 1,378 yards and seven touchdowns. However, the Browns' selecting two rookie running backs should tell us they are not all that satisfied with Ford as the unquestioned RB1. Even if he starts the season as the touch-leader in the backfield, this will likely be a fluid situation based on which Cleveland ball carrier performs well in the preseason and during the regular season. With the Nick Chubb era officially over, the Browns backfield is being reshaped, and one of Ford, Judkins, or Sampson could be a tremendous value pick.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans tight end Chig Okonkwo has flashed on occasion during his three-year NFL career, but tight ends often take time to develop, and Tennessee's offense has been well below league average since the start of the 2022 campaign. The former fourth-round pick out of Maryland has tallied 138 receptions (193 targets) for 1,457 yards and six touchdowns in 51 career games. Heading into Year 4, Titans beat writer Jim Wyatt believes he is "poised" for his best season as a pro. He now has valuable experience, and he'll enter the year with momentum after finishing the 2024 season on a roll," Wyatt wrote. "Okonkwo finished the year third on the team with 52 catches for 479 yards and two scores. The Titans are counting on big things from Okonkwo after a solid offseason, when I charted him with a team-high 13 catches during the five open practices." While it's tough to get too excited about a mid-level tight end catching passes from a rookie quarterback, there is a low bar for Cam Ward to have the best season of any Tennessee signal-caller since Okonkwo arrived in Nashville. At his TE26 cost in preseason fantasy drafts, he's worth a dart throw given the lack of target competition behind receiver Calvin Ridley.
From RotoBaller
The Atlanta Falcons selected former Notre Dame safety Xavier Watts in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft, and many believed he could have been an early Day 2 pick after collecting 13 interceptions, 18 pass deflections, and two fumble recoveries in his final two collegiate seasons. Heading into his rookie campaign, it's safe to say the team is high on the 23-year-old. "X is one of the smartest players I have ever watched at safety," Falcons area scout Ryan Doyal said. "It's like, man, he's in the right place at the right time. But then he just keeps doing it. And then he comes back for another year, and he does the exact same thing again." Atlanta already has one of the premier safeties in the NFL, Jessie Bates III, so Watts panning out would form a dangerous duo for the Falcons' rebuilt defense.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans wide receiver Xavier Restrepo is working out with NFL star pass-catchers Ja'Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and more at Chad Johnson's Wideout Workshop this week. The undrafted free agent out of Miami has impressed this offseason while catching passes from his college quarterback, Cam Ward, and learning from some of the best in the business can't hurt his chances to succeed. The 23-year-old logged back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons to end his Hurricanes career, but his poor NFL Combine performance led to him going undrafted. While any UDFA has an uphill battle to make a 53-man roster, having previous chemistry with Ward gives him a leg up, and the Titans' wideout room is arguably the worst in the NFL behind Calvin Ridley.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans WR Calvin Ridley moves and cuts in a way that rookie QB Cam Ward has never seen any receiver move and cut before. '(Ridley is) different. How he moves, everything. Now that I see what a receiver is supposed to be like, that's why I'm glad that Eli (Elic Ayomanor), Chim (Chimere Dike), Strep (Xavier Restrepo), Bryce (Oliver), all the guys in that room, I'm glad they got him because I ain't never threw to no receiver like him, who move like him, can cut like him ... he ain't selfish either. He wants the rookies, all of us, to do better than him because he's gonna end up getting his one-on-ones,' Ward said recently. Ridley's career has become a bit of an odyssey in recently, most of which is through no fault of his own. The primary thing that held him back last year was lackluster quarterback play. In 2023, he was forced into more of an X role due to injuries when his skill set is a better fit as a 'Z.' He missed 2022 due to a gambling suspension and only played five games the season before, making his 90-1,374-9 season in 2020 a bit of a distant memory. With Ward expected to raise the level of quarterback play in Tennessee, Ridley could easily be a top-20 receiver in fantasy this season.
From TheHuddle
Pittsburgh Steelers CB Darius Slay (knee) has a knee issue that is enough of a concern that a source recently told insider Adam Caplan on Fox Sports Radio that it could impact how he runs this season. 'As I'm told, one of his knees is a concern. He actually had arthroscopic surgery on it late in 2023. He's got great length, and he was super fast coming out of Mississippi State. You have to wonder how well he can run. ... You never know when a guy's going to lose it, and they could lose it in an instant,' Caplan said.
From TheHuddle
According to Broncos beat writer Cody Roark of Mike High Sports, recently acquired running back J.K. Dobbins "will likely be the starter" to open the 2025 campaign. Dobbins came back from a brutal run of injuries, including a torn Achilles, to rush for 905 yards and nine touchdowns for the Los Angeles Chargers last season. The Broncos signed him to a one-year deal following the 2025 NFL Draft. During the draft, the organization selected UCF running back RJ Harvey in the second round, and Roark said he will also have an extensive role. While this only adds more confusion to what could be a complicated backfield, early-offseason beat reports and camp information should be taken with a grain of salt. Both Broncos running backs have upside, but Harvey should be viewed as the high-ceiling pick. After all, Dobbins averaged just 3.8 yards per carry after Weeks 1 and 2 a season ago.
From RotoBaller
The Miami Dolphins have officially agreed to send a 2026 sixth-round draft selection in exchange for former New York Giants tight end Darren Waller and a conditional 2027 seventh-round pick, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. This trade seemingly came out of nowhere, directly following the announcement that Miami had traded Pro Bowl tight end Jonnu Smith to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Waller posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2019 and 2020, but he did not eclipse 700 yards in 2021, 2022, and 2023 before taking the 2024 season off. While he should not be expected to be a high-end TE1, the tight end spot is always shallow, meaning he could find his way onto the fantasy football radar in 2025. A mid-range TE2 or even low-end TE1 season is not out of the realm of possibilities. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle present fierce target competition, but they also open the middle of the field up with their explosive skill sets.
From RotoBaller
The Seattle Seahawks released defensive back JT Woods on Monday, according to NFL.com. Woods, a former third-round selection in the 2022 NFL Draft out of Baylor, played his first two seasons with the Los Angeles Chargers, collecting eight tackles in 13 games. He has not appeared in a regular-season or postseason contest since 2023 but has spent time with the Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears, and Seahawks offseason rosters and practice squads. The 25-year-old hasn't been able to stick on a roster to this point, so he's unlikely to make an NFL impact anytime soon.
From RotoBaller
The Miami Dolphins have reached out to free-agent cornerback Asante Samuel Jr., according to the Miami Herald. The organization dealt All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey to the Pittsburgh Steelers in exchange for All-Pro and former Dolphins safety Minkah Fitzpatrick last week, so they are in the market for a veteran corner. Samuel was a second-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft out of Florida State by the Los Angeles Chargers. In 50 career games, he tallied 176 tackles (148 solo), 37 pass deflections, six interceptions, and one fumble recovery. A significant shoulder injury limited the 25-year-old to just four games in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (hamstring) said he will be full-go in training camp, pending a final check-in with team doctors following a significant hamstring injury that cost him nine missed games in 2024. The veteran, entering his 10th NFL season, participated in all drills this offseason and should be more than ready to go by Week 1 of the 2025 campaign. Dallas added former Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens this offseason, and Prescott is confident the two will get on the same page quickly. While Prescott's injury concerns are noteworthy, the 31-year-old could be undervalued at his mid-level QB2 average draft position. Dallas is likely to have another weak rushing attack in 2025, and Prescott should have several spike weeks due to the presence of Pickens and All-Pro wideout CeeDee Lamb.
From RotoBaller
Veteran free-agent running back Nyheim Hines, who suffered a torn ACL in a jet-ski accident nearly two years ago, is seeking a return to the NFL, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. The former fourth-round pick by the Indianapolis Colts in 2018 out of NC State posted 1,202 rushing yards, 1,778 receiving yards, and 18 total touchdowns through his first 81 career games with Indy and the Buffalo Bills. Hines spent last season on the Cleveland Browns roster but did not appear in a game after landing on the reserve/non-football injury list. The 28-year-old could have a tough path back toward meaningful NFL action, but his pass-catching skill set and veteran presence could make him an appealing acquisition for one of the 32 franchises.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (hamstring) declared himself fully healthy Tuesday, July 8, and ready to go for training camp, pending one more checkup with the team doctors.
Fantasy Spin: Prescott will be a midrange QB1 as he'll be a little one-dimensional and not much of a threat to run. The position is stacked with dual-threat QBs right now, and his top-three status is likely in the rearview.
From TheHuddle
Atlanta Falcons QB Kirk Cousins said he felt a little 'misled' when the Falcons took QB Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, in the first episode of Netflix's 'Quarterback.' Cousins said he was aware the Falcons might draft a quarterback, but definitely not that high. He wasn't informed about the Penix pick until a phone call by offensive coordinator Zac Robinson while Atlanta was on the clock. 'Certainly, if I had the information around free agency, it certainly would've affected my decision,' Cousins said on the first episode of the season. 'I had no reason to leave Minnesota with how much we loved it there if both teams are going to be drafting a quarterback high. But I've also learned in 12 years in this league that you're not entitled to anything. It's all about being able to earn your spot and prove yourself.'
Fantasy Spin: Cousins' best route to fantasy value would be in a different situation as Penix is expected to be the starter. Cousins could have fantasy value if Penix went down to an injury. However, he's in the fantasy purgatory for now.
From TheHuddle
Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield threw 17 touchdowns against the blitz during the 2024 season.
Fantasy Spin: Mayfield tied for second in the NFL with 41 touchdowns this last season and probably will be asked to throw a lot again this upcoming season. He will have Emeka Egbuka in addition to other pass catchers coming back this upcoming season and can be a starting option in all fantasy leagues.
From TheHuddle
Miami Dolphins TE Darren Waller has played in an offensive system similar to head coach Mike McDaniel's system and should be able to pick up the offense relatively quickly, in the opinion of The Miami Herald's Kaitlyn Pohly.
Fantasy Spin: Waller has not played since the 2023 season, so it may take him some time to get back into game shape. He seems to be on track to be the starting tight end for the Dolphins and should have the chance to earn a solid role in the passing game. He probably should be considered a No. 2 tight end at this point with a chance to become a starting fantasy option during the season.
From TheHuddle
Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ran 240 routes from the slot with 39 receptions (on 56 targets) for 441 yards and five touchdowns in 2024. However, he ran 252 routes out wide, which led to 67 receptions (on 75 targets) for 740 yards and five touchdowns.
Fantasy Spin: This should serve as a reminder that St. Brown is #goodatfootball. There has been some discussion about St. Brown dropping from the elite fantasy receiver ranks in 2025 - due in part to the potential that he might lose some snaps in the slot - following the departure of former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. While the fifth-year wideout may see his production drop off a bit this season, the aforementioned stats clearly suggest it is unlikely to happen because of lining up more often outside.
From TheHuddle
Free-agent RB Nyheim Hines (knee) believes his knee is ready for a return to action almost two years to the date he tore his anterior cruciate ligament in a jet-ski accident, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.
From TheHuddle
New England Patriots TE Hunter Henry ranked eight or better in catches, yards and targets among tight ends in 2024, but his two touchdowns ranked 26th at the position.
Fantasy Spin: Henry emerged as one of Drake Maye's favorite targets last season, and he should have a similar role in 2025. Given his overall usage, don't be surprised if he has a few more trips to the end zone. He could finish as a low-end TE1.
From TheHuddle
According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, the Pittsburgh Steelers and linebacker T.J. Watt aren't close to resolving the ongoing contract dispute. The team wants to keep him. However, there are still some glaring issues regarding a new deal, specifically, length and guaranteed money. The 30-year-old is still a top defensive option despite closing in on a decade of service in the National Football League, most recently finishing the 2024 campaign with 11.5 sacks while totaling 61 tackles. With training camp commencing in a few weeks, there is a greater sense of urgency for a deal to get done. If Watt isn't on the field come Week 1, it won't be an ideal scenario for a Steelers defense that is projected to be one of the most potent fantasy units in 2025.
From RotoBaller