Lineup Prep: Divisional Round

Wed Jan 17 9:40am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

LaPorta is getting healthier


Here is to hoping that the playoff games are better this weekend. For the most part, the games last week just weren’t very good unless you were a fans of those teams. I’m hoping for some barn burners this week, going down to the last drive. It will make for a lot better viewing.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .

I like a snow/cold game as much as anyone, but it does kind of stink for the teams involved when playing in the playoffs. You play all season in pretty normal conditions, but have to deal with brutal conditions when the playoffs hit. Again, I love to watch a snow game, but it probably would be better for the playoffs if teams didn’t have to deal with the awful winter weather. Oh well.

The Josh Allen experience is truly wild. He can drive you crazy with the turnovers and mistakes, but when he is playing well, Allen is really the best in the game. He showed that last week. Allen is just so tough defend, especially when he is running the ball more. The Bills kind of took that out of the game plan early in the season, but brought it back more after changing offensive coordinators. The change in philosophy has been a huge spark to the Bills offense.

I’m really excited about Jameson Williams next season. The Lions are starting to use him a lot more in normal routes than just as a deep threat. He is showing his ability as a route runner lately. Williams has a chance for a breakout season as long as he is healthy and playing. The big issue for Williams to start his career is just staying on the field. The ability is there for huge things. I’m ready to see what he can do next year.

It will be interesting to see what the Vikings do with their quarterback position this offseason. I almost think Kirk Cousins will be back and the team will draft a quarterback to learn from him. That might make the most sense and keep star receiver Justin Jefferson happy. This is one situation I’m going to keep a really close eye on this offseason because it has a lot of fantasy implications.

If I’m the Bears, I’m trading that No. 1 overall pick and loading up on more draft picks to surround Justin Fields with better talent. I know Caleb Williams is a stud and could be a fantastic pro, but Fields is no slouch. He made strides this year, especially late in the season. I think the franchise would do better to take advantage of the hype surround Williams and get a huge haul in a trade.

I don’t see Bill Belichick going to a team that doesn’t already have a franchise quarterback. You hear him interviewing with Atlanta, but that situation just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. I think he is going to go to a team that already has a top quarterback, so he doesn’t have to deal with the issues he had with the Patriots after losing Tom Brady.

And speaking of coaches, you have to wonder what is going to happen in Dallas after their stunning early-round exit in the playoffs. Mike McCarthy has been great during the regular season, but owner Jerry Jones doesn’t care about regular season wins. Jones wants Super Bowl titles. I would not be surprised if McCarthy is relieved of his job in the coming days.

I really thought the Browns operated better with Joe Flacco as their starting quarterback this season than Deshaun Watson. Flacco gave that passing game a spark and it produced huge numbers on a weekly basis. You have to think the Browns are really regretting going all in on Watson as their franchise quarterback. He certainly has not played near his past levels. The Browns really overpaid for Watson and could be feeling it for years to come.

News and Notes: The Bills released running back Leonard Fournette from the practice squad on Tuesday.

HOT PLAYS

Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions. LaPorta was able to play last week and didn’t look quite 100 percent, but still found the end zone. He has double-digit fantasy points three straight games and scores two straight. He should be even healthier this week, meaning his production could be even better. Plus, he has a great matchup against a bad Bucs pass defense. The Bucs allowed the second most fantasy points to tight ends during the regular season.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers. McCaffrey is always a must start and hot play, but especially this week. He gets a Packers defense that is the worst out of all the remaining playoff teams against the run. Green Bay was 28th against the run in the regular season and allowed the 13th most fantasy points to running backs. Green Bay allowed 200-plus rushing yards four times this season. We think McCaffrey is going to have a monster showing in this one, possibly pushing 200-plus total yards and 30 fantasy points.

Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens. Flowers had a breakout season as the top target at receiver the Ravens. He played really well late in the season, having 20-plus fantasy points three of five games. He has scores four of five games. Flowers keeps getting it done on a weekly basis. Look for more success this week against the Texans in what should be a high-scoring game. The Texans have allowed 265-plus passing yards three of six games.

COLD PLAYS 

Devin Singletary, RB, Texans. Singletary had a solid season, emerging as the starter for the Texans. He has scores two straight games and has been consistent for the Texans, especially the second half of the season. Singletary has a really tough matchup to keep up his solid play this week, though, playing the Ravens. Baltimore was 14th against the run during the regular season, allowing 109.4-rushing yards per game. Houston might need to rely on C.J. Stroud and the passing game moire than Singletary if they hope to have much offensive success.

David Montgomery, RB, Lions. Montgomery found the end zone again last week, giving him four straight games with a touchdown. He still hasn’t topped 65-rushing yards in any of those games and has just three catches during that stretch. He might be a scary play this week against a Bucs defense that allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season. The Bucs allowed the third fewest fantasy points to running backs during the regular season and were fifth overall against the run.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. It is so hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes, but his numbers down the stretch haven’t been great for fantasy owners. He has just one touchdown each of his last three games. He has been pretty mediocre for fantasy teams. It might be more of the same this week against the Bills on the road. Buffalo has really played better defense down the stretch and allowed the sixth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks during the regular season.

SLEEPERS

Baker Mayfield, QB, Bucs. Mayfield had a great opener in the playoffs, hitting the 300-yard mark while scoring three touchdowns. Mayfield has multiple touchdowns five of six games. He has three three-touchdown games during that stretch. He has a great matchup against the Lions, a team that allowed the third most fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season. Look for Mayfield to keep it going this week.

Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Packers. Wicks scored another touchdown last week, giving him scores three straight games. He keeps finding the end zone, making him a top red-zone target for the Packers. He could score again this week in a game the Packers are likely throwing often and playing from behind. This could lead to even more targets for Wicks. He could be a sneaky play for fantasy owners.

Khalil Shakir, WR, Bills. Shakir scored his third touchdown of the season last week. He has 12-plus fantasy points two straight games. He has at least three catches four consecutive games. Shakir is getting more work with Gabe Davis out and playing well in an expanded role. Shakir has a chance for another solid game this week in what should be a high-scoring game with the Chiefs.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Packers/49ers, Bucs/Lions.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Top Headlines
The Paur Report

Starts, Sits, Sleepers: Week 12

Player Notes
Rhamondre Stevenson Nov 22 1:00am CT
Rhamondre Stevenson

New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been removed from the injury report after a toe injury sidelined him for three consecutive games. He'll return to action this Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals, presumably without any limitations. This week's backfield dynamic in New England is a little unclear. Stevenson held the lead-back role when healthy, but rookie TreVeyon Henderson looked excellent in his three-week stint as the starter. We expect to see Henderson remain heavily involved this weekend, and he even has a strong chance to lead the backfield in snaps. Nevertheless, the coaching staff has shown its commitment to Stevenson time and time again, which means we should expect him to handle healthy volume in his return to play. He's averaging 12.4 touches per game this season, and even if that number drops a little in Week 12, he's still a solid RB3/flex option. It also helps that he's facing off against a Bengals defense allowing the most fantasy points and second-most receiving yards to opposing running backs in 2025.

From RotoBaller

TreVeyon Henderson Nov 22 12:50am CT
TreVeyon Henderson

New England Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson looked terrific as the team's lead back over the last few weeks, but the coaching staff refused to commit to him as their top option out of the backfield for Week 12 against the Cincinnati Bengals. Henderson's increased role was a result of Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) missing time, but now that Stevenson has been removed from the injury report, we expect the backfield dynamic to look a little different. While we expected Henderson to lose some volume when Stevenson came back, we'd be a little surprised to see the rookie lose his lead-back role after he tallied 264 rushing yards, 66 receiving yards, and five touchdowns over the last three games. Nevertheless, head coach Mike Vrabel wouldn't name Henderson the starter. Don't be surprised if Stevenson remains a thorn in Henderson's fantasy managers' sides once again this week. The rookie has RB1 upside, but he ranks as more of an RB2 with Stevenson back in the mix.

From RotoBaller

Drake Maye Nov 22 12:40am CT
Drake Maye

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye should bounce back as a high-end fantasy QB1 for Sunday's Week 12 contest against the Cincinnati Bengals. The former No. 3 pick delivered a modest 281 yards and one touchdown last week, falling shy of his high-end QB1 upside. He should get back to that tier this week, though, as the Bengals have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in 2025, as well as the third-most passing touchdowns. In addition to Maye getting a favorable matchup, he'll also benefit from the return of two key targets. Both Kayshon Boutte (hamstring) and Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) have been removed from the injury report and will return following their multi-game absences. Maye is the overall QB2 in fantasy scoring this season, and he's well on his way to a phenomenal MVP candidacy. He should be started in all fantasy leagues as he takes on the Bengals.

From RotoBaller

David Montgomery Nov 22 12:20am CT
David Montgomery

Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery was held in check by the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 11, recording 27 rushing yards on just six carries. Montgomery has now failed to score a touchdown in four out of his last five games, cracking 45 rushing yards just once in that span. While there's no question Montgomery has taken a backseat to Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs this season, there could be reason for optimism around Montgomery's outlook for Week 12 against the New York Giants. Through 11 weeks, New York is allowing the most yards per carry (5.5) to opposing running backs in the NFL. The Giants have also given up 15 rushing touchdowns, tied for second-most among NFL defenses. If there's a game for Montgomery to rediscover his touchdown-scoring ways, it could be against New York. Fantasy managers should view him as a solid RB2 option in Week 12.

From RotoBaller

Jake Bates Nov 22 12:20am CT
Jake Bates

Detroit Lions kicker Jake Bates had an underwhelming game in Week 11, making just one field goal and missing his lone extra-point try in his team's 16-9 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. On paper, Bates has a much lighter matchup in Week 12, when the Lions host the New York Giants inside the domed Ford Field. In his career to this point, Bates is averaging 8.5 points per game at home, compared to 7.4 per game on the road. The Giants have also been one of the easiest teams for opposing offenses to light up the scoreboard against so far this season. New York enters Week 12 allowing 27.3 points per game and has allowed 31.2 points per game over the last five weeks. Bates could have plenty of chances to put points on the board for the Lions against the Giants and profiles as a must-start fantasy kicker in Week 12.

From RotoBaller

Kalif Raymond Nov 22 12:10am CT
Kalif Raymond

Detroit Lions wide receiver Kalif Raymond was blanked by the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 11, finishing the game with zero receptions on zero targets. The 31-year-old has just 13 receptions across 10 games this season, and he's gone without a catch in four out of his last six outings. On a more positive note, Raymond played 64% of Detroit's offensive snaps against Philadelphia, his highest rate since Week 1. With Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (back) on Injured Reserve due to a back injury, Detroit may be forced to lean more heavily on three-wide receiver sets. Raymond also gets a more favorable matchup on paper in Week 12 against the New York Giants. New York has allowed the sixth-most passing yards (2,641) in the NFL so far this season. Still, Raymond has not proven to be a consistent enough target-earner to be a fantasy-relevant producer so far this season. He remains a risky start in Week 12.

From RotoBaller

Isaac TeSlaa Nov 22 12:10am CT
Isaac TeSlaa

With Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (back) on Injured Reserve due to a back injury, there's an opportunity for rookie wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa (oblique) to step up as a more consistent target-earner in Detroit. However, TeSlaa recorded zero catches on one target in the Lions' first game without LaPorta, a Week 11 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. TeSlaa has not earned more than one target in a game since Week 3 and has hauled in just four catches for the entire season. Additionally, he remains behind Kalif Raymond on his team's wide receiver depth chart and has played 18 fewer offensive snaps than Raymond in each of the last two weeks. TeSlaa is officially listed as questionable to play in Week 12 due to an oblique injury, but he played through the same injury in Week 11. The Lions have a favorable matchup on paper in Week 12 against the New York Giants, who have allowed the sixth-most passing yards (2,641) in the NFL through 11 weeks. Still, TeSlaa remains an unreliable option for fantasy managers until he proves to be a more consistent part of the Detroit passing game.

From RotoBaller

Roschon Johnson Nov 22 12:00am CT
Roschon Johnson

Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson (thumb) missed two consecutive practices and has been ruled out for Sunday's Week 12 contest against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Johnson was added to the injury report on Thursday and hasn't been able to get on the field since. The extent of his injury is unknown, but it won't have major ramifications in fantasy football anyway. He has just two carries for 17 yards through seven games this season, remaining buried in a depth role behind veteran D'Andre Swift and rookie Kyle Monangai. Travis Homer (hamstring, knee) has also been ruled out for this week, meaning Chicago may have to activate Brittain Brown from the practice squad to fill the No. 3 running back role.

From RotoBaller

Jahmyr Gibbs Nov 22 12:00am CT
Jahmyr Gibbs

Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs was one of his team's lone bright spots in their 16-9 Week 11 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Gibbs rushed for just 39 yards on 12 carries against the Eagles, but he hauled in five receptions for 107 yards on eight targets. The 23-year-old has now recorded at least 140 scrimmage yards in three out of his last four games and has already topped 1,000 scrimmage yards for the season. On paper, Gibbs has a good chance to extend his hot streak in Week 12 against the New York Giants. New York is allowing the most yards per carry (5.5) to opposing running backs in the NFL so far this season. There's also reason to believe that Gibbs will continue to feature heavily in Detroit's passing game. In the two games since Lions head coach Dan Campbell has taken over as the team's play-caller, Gibbs has been targeted 12 times. He profiles as a must-start fantasy running back in Week 12 against New York.

From RotoBaller

Zamir White Nov 22 12:00am CT
Zamir White

Las Vegas Raiders running back Zamir White continues to be a non-factor with his team, and he remains off the fantasy radar in all leagues. The 26-year-old has been a healthy scratch for five games in a row, and he's likely headed for his sixth consecutive absence in Week 12 as the Raiders take on the Cleveland Browns. Ashton Jeanty has control of the top spot in Vegas' backfield, while Raheem Mostert and Dylan Laube have edged out White for depth roles. In the four games he did play earlier this year, White averaged just 2.5 carries, 6.3 rushing yards, 0.8 catches, and 4.8 receiving yards. Even if one of the running backs ahead of White were to get injured, he'd likely still be a non-factor in all fantasy football leagues.

From RotoBaller

Jameson Williams Nov 21 11:50pm CT
Jameson Williams

After an underwhelming start to the 2025 season, Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams has caught fire in recent weeks. Over his last five games, the 24-year-old has recorded 20 receptions for 339 yards and four touchdowns on 29 targets. On paper, Williams should have a good chance to extend his hot streak in Week 12 against the New York Giants. Through 11 weeks, the Giants have allowed the sixth-most passing yards (2,641) and seventh-most passing touchdowns (19) in the NFL. Recent developments in Detroit also favor Williams. In the two games since head coach Dan Campbell took over as his team's play-caller, Williams has been targeted 14 times and is averaging 20.7 yards per reception. Additionally, the Lions will be without tight end Sam LaPorta (back) in Week 12, which will lessen the target competition in Detroit. Williams profiles as a high-end fantasy WR2 in Week 12.

From RotoBaller

Kameron Johnson Nov 21 11:50pm CT
Kameron Johnson

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Kameron Johnson has failed to capitalize on new opportunities with his teammates injured. The second-year receiver has just four catches in 2025, and all four of them came in one game. Outside of that anomalous contest, he has two targets and zero receptions. Johnson played just nine percent of the snaps last Sunday against Buffalo, primarily contributing on special teams. He has 16 kick returns for 394 yards this season, plus 17 punt returns for an additional 219 yards. It has been a bit surprising to see Johnson remain in a depth role despite injuries to his teammates. Chris Godwin (leg), Mike Evans (collarbone), and Jalen McMillan (neck) have all missed significant time, but it hasn't created much of an increase in opportunities for Johnson. Godwin could return this week against the Los Angeles Rams, which would figure to knock down Johnson's involvement even further. He can be dropped in most fantasy leagues.

From RotoBaller

Brock Wright Nov 21 11:50pm CT
Brock Wright

With top Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (back) currently on Injured Reserve due to a back injury, veteran Brock Wright has been elevated to TE1 status in Detroit. In his first game without LaPorta in Week 11, Wright was targeted seven times but hauled in just two catches for eight yards against the Philadelphia Eagles. On paper, Wright has an easier matchup in Week 12 against the New York Giants. So far this season, New York has allowed the sixth-most passing yards (2,641) and seventh-most passing touchdowns (19) in the NFL. However, Wright's lack of proven track record as a receiving threat makes him tough to trust for fantasy managers. Across 68 career games with Detroit, the 26-year-old has recorded 67 receptions. He profiles as a low-end fantasy TE2 in Week 12 against the Giants.

From RotoBaller

Trevor Etienne Nov 21 11:40pm CT
Trevor Etienne

Carolina Panthers running back Trevor Etienne has essentially been a non-factor lately. He didn't log a snap in Week 10, and he played just four snaps with one carry last Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons. The rookie has primarily played on special teams, logging either a kick or punt return in all but one game this year. In total, he has just 20 carries for 94 rushing yards in 2025, plus two catches for an additional nine yards. He also fumbled once. Most of his volume came during Weeks 4-6 when Chuba Hubbard was banged up. As long as Hubbard and Rico Dowdle are healthy, Etienne will be a non-factor on offense. Managers should continue to patiently stash him in dynasty leagues, but they can leave him on waivers in redraft formats. That remains true in Week 12 against the San Francisco 49ers.

From RotoBaller

Jared Goff Nov 21 11:40pm CT
Jared Goff

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff had one of his worst games in a Lions uniform in Week 11, completing just 14 of 37 pass attempts for 255 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. On paper, Goff has a much easier matchup in Week 12 when Detroit hosts the New York Giants. Through 11 weeks, the Giants have allowed the sixth-most passing yards (2,641) in the NFL. New York will also remain without cornerback Paulson Adebo (knee), who has been out since Week 7 with a knee injury. The Lions are dealing with some health issues themselves, as Goff will be without tight end Sam LaPorta (back), and multiple Detroit offensive linemen are playing through nagging injuries. Still, Goff could have a chance to do damage against the struggling Giants defense and profiles as a must-start fantasy QB1 in Week 12.

From RotoBaller

Amon-Ra St. Brown Nov 21 11:40pm CT
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown had one of the least efficient games of his career in his team's Week 11 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, hauling in just two of 12 targets for 42 yards. On paper, St. Brown has a much more favorable matchup in Week 12 against the New York Giants. Through 11 weeks, New York has allowed the sixth-most passing yards (2,641) and seventh-most passing touchdowns (19) in the NFL. St. Brown has earned double-digit targets in four out of his last five games and should continue to see a heavy workload in Week 12 with Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (back) sidelined by a back injury. If there's one concern for St. Brown, it's that he's struggled with drops in recent weeks and holds a career-high 5.3% drop rate in 2025. Still, the 26-year-old has been one of the most reliable wideouts in the NFL over the course of his career and remains a must-start fantasy wide receiver in Week 12.

From RotoBaller

Allen Lazard Nov 21 11:30pm CT
Allen Lazard

New York Jets wide receiver Allen Lazard (coach's decision) has been inactive for the last two weeks, and he's trending toward being a healthy scratch again in Week 12 against the Baltimore Ravens. Lazard went from playing 78 percent of the snaps in Week 8 to being a healthy scratch for the Jets' next game, and he has been inactive ever since, even with the Jets trying to find ways to replace Garrett Wilson (knee). So far, Adonai Mitchell, John Metchie III, Tyler Johnson, Arian Smith, and Isaiah Williams have been the Jets' preferred replacements for Wilson, leaving Lazard as the odd man out. With all five of those receivers healthy, it looks like Lazard is heading for more of the same. Don't expect him to suit up against Baltimore.

From RotoBaller

Noah Gray Nov 21 11:20pm CT
Noah Gray

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Noah Gray ran the fourth-most routes (19) on the team in Week 11, catching two of his three targets in the loss to the Denver Broncos. Gray was behind only the Chiefs' primary three pass catchers in Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Travis Kelce, but still didn't see much production. Head coach Andy Reid rotated his pass catchers more than usual in the game, with those three all running at least 30 routes, and no other Chiefs pass catcher reached 20. It could have been a matchup-specific thing against Denver, but it was Gray's highest route share since Week 6. Gray is still searching for his first touchdown of the year after catching a career high five last season. He can be left on waivers in the majority of leagues.

From RotoBaller

Jahan Dotson Nov 21 11:20pm CT
Jahan Dotson

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Jahan Dotson has been an inconsistent contributor in fantasy football this season, and he remains off the fantasy radar in most leagues ahead of Week 12 against the Dallas Cowboys. Dotson turned in a solid two-catch, 43-yard showing last week, but he also has zero catches in two of his last four games. Dotson's floor remains quite low given his role in the Eagles' offense. As the No. 3 receiver in an offense that likes to run the ball, Dotson should only expect a couple of targets per game (at most), and most of them will be contested throws deeper downfield. Plus, his snap share has taken a step backward, as he played fewer than one-third of the snaps in each of his last two games. He is a boom-or-bust receiver who ranks outside the top 100 receivers in fantasy points this season. Even against a susceptible Dallas defense, Dotson is not a safe receiver to rely upon.

From RotoBaller

Tre Harris Nov 21 11:00pm CT
Tre Harris

Los Angeles Chargers rookie wide receiver Tre' Harris has seen his playing time steadily rise as the season has gone along. Harris hit a season high in snap (82.8%) and route share back (84.6%) in Week 6 with Quentin Johnston out, catching four of five targets for 27 yards. His route share has been between 22.5% and 35.9% every week since then, but he spiked back up to 50% in Week 11, his second-highest rate of the year. He caught his only target for 12 yards, and it was likely a result of the Chargers taking a beating in a blowout 35-6 loss to the Jaguars, but it was positive news for the rookie regardless. The rookie second-rounder is buried in a deep Chargers wide receiver room, and it will be tough for him to make a big impact this season without an injury.

From RotoBaller