Lineup Prep: Week 4

Wed Sep 24 9:29am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Dobbins is racking up the scores

Just remember. It is a long fantasy season. If your team is off to a slow start after three weeks, there is plenty of time to get it going. Some players have tougher schedules to start the season than others. Things tend to even out, especially when it comes to the top players. So don’t panic just yet and start trading off top assets because of a bad game or two. Trust the process.

With that said, here are my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

I don’t know if I enjoy watching a player more than I do Lamar Jackson. He is at the top of his game. He looks so effortless throwing the ball and his accuracy is off the charts. The concern for him when he entered the league was as a thrower, but those concerns should be long gone. He is one of the best throwers in the game in my view. This guy is special. Enjoy the time you have to watch him.

While some teams lacking talent went the other way last week, I was impressed with the fight in the Dolphins. Miami was right in that game against the Bills right until the end. It was a good showing for a team that showed little the first two weeks. This offense might end up helping fantasy teams in the end if they keep playing like this. It was a good step forward after a dreadful two weeks to start the season.

You have to start wondering if the Jaguars are regretting using the second overall pick on Travis Hunter. I just don’t get why you use such a high pick on a player that isn’t a full-time starter on either side of the ball. Jacksonville needs a lot of help on both sides, so any of those top-10 picks in the draft might have been a better pick for the Jags. Hunter is not making much of an impact at this point.

I guess all the thought of Davante Adams cutting into the production of Puka Nacua might have been a little overblown. Nacua is getting a ton of volume once again and remains the clear top target of Matthew Stafford, who has a great rapport with him. I worry about Nacua holding up because he seems to take a beating every week, but as long as he is healthy, look for continued big things from him. He has a whopping 35 targets in three games.

It is amazing what a competent quarterback can do for a running game. The Colts have been looking for a signal caller in recent years, which led to teams just focusing on trying to slow down Jonathan Taylor. Well, teams can’t do that this year with Daniel Jones playing really well. This has made a big impact on Taylor, who hasn’t looked this good in recent seasons. He looks like a different player right now and might make a run at top fantasy back in the game once again.

The loss of CeeDee Lamb for a few weeks is going to really impact Dak Prescott. This is a huge loss for the offense. Prescott hasn’t been great for fantasy teams just yet as well, so losing Lamb isn’t going to help matters. Prescott isn’t playing badly but is not producing very good fantasy numbers. I would worry about him in the coming weeks. If you have better options at quarterback, you might want to think about using them.

I’m anxious to see Jaxson Dart this week. He is generating so much buzz that it will be great to see him get his chance in a real NFL game. He is a dual threat that is going to make some crazy throws when given the chance. The problem for Dart is the team he plays for just isn’t very good. Plus, he has a really tough schedule the coming weeks. So don’t be surprised if he starts a little slow but I think he can be a legit fantasy factor down the stretch this year. Just have some patience.

News and Notes: Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison was officially reinstated from his three-game suspension on Monday. He is eligible to return to the lineup this weekend. . . .The Texans released safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson on Tuesday. Houston will go with other options in the secondary going forward.

HOT PLAYS

Jordan Love, QB, Packers. Love is off to a better start this season, having multiple touchdowns two of three games. He struggled some last week but played a tough Browns defense. Love is showing he can be a fantasy factor once again after a so-so showing last year. The Packers look to be one of the best teams in football this year. We like Love to have a huge game this week against the Cowboys. Dallas is a mess against the pass and allows the most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Cowboys have allowed 30-plus points two straight games.

Ricky Pearsall, WR, 49ers. Pearsall continues to be a huge bright spot in the 49ers offense. He has 100-yard games two of three. He had a season-high 11 targets last week. Pearsall is the clear top target in the offense right now. He should continue to pile up the targets, especially this week against the Jaguars. Jacksonville allows the sixth most fantasy points to receivers and has struggled to stop the pass at times this year. Pearsall is a must-start right now.

JK Dobbins, RB, Broncos. Dobbins has found the end zone each of his first three games to start the season. He had his best rushing game last week, rushing 11 times for 83 yards. He is showing great consistency in this very good Broncos offense. He has at least 14 fantasy points every game. We look for more of the same this week against the Bengals, who are a mess right now. Cincinnati allows the second-most fantasy points to running backs. The Bengals have allowed 135-plus rushing yards each of their last two games.

Omarion Hampton, RB, Chargers. The injury to Najee Harris opens the door for Hampton to be the clear lead back for the Chargers going forward. He had a breakout game last week, finishing with 129 total yards and a touchdown on 25 touches. His ceiling is through the roof in this offense. He should have a great game this week against the Giants, a team that allows the fourth most fantasy points to running backs. New York has allowed 100-plus rushing yards every game, including giving up more than 200 in Week 1.

Jakobi Meyers, WR, Raiders. Tre Tucker had the huge game last week but Meyers remains the No. 1 receiver for the Raiders. He has played at least 93 percent of the snaps all three games. Meyers has 60-plus yards all three games, showing good consistency. He has double-digit targets two of three games and two games with 12-plus fantasy points. He flies under the radar at times but Meyers is a very reliable fantasy target. He should do well again this week against a bad Bears secondary. Chicago allows the fourth most fantasy points to receivers.

COLD PLAYS

Cam Skattebo, RB, Giants. Skattebo is becoming the clear lead back for the Giants. He had 121 total yards last week, his best game of the season. But even with that said, he carries some risk in this up-and-down Giants offense. He is no sure thing - even if getting the volume. Skattebo gets a very tough Chargers defense this week. The Chargers allow the fifth fewest fantasy points to running backs. Los Angeles has allowed fewer than 100-rushing yards two of three games.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Steelers. Rodgers had a big Week 1 but done little his last two games. He has fewer than 15 fantasy points each of his last two games. He is going to be a spot play this year and a game against the Vikings is not a good spot to play him. The Vikings have yet to allow 200-passing yards in a game this year. Minnesota allows the third fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Go with better options.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Patriots. Diggs has not emerged just yet as the No. 1 receiver for the Patriots. He has played the third most snaps on the team at receiver. He has more than 50-receiving yards just one of three games. He is going to be really hit or miss until he starts getting more consistent playing time and targets in this offense. We would just shy away from him for now, especially this week against a Panthers defense that has really shut down the passing game to start the year. Carolina allows the third fewest fantasy points to receivers and not allowed more than 215-passing yards in a single game.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, Commanders. The Commanders continue to confuse everyone with their running back position. Sure, Croskey-Merritt led the team in snaps last week but got most of that when his team was up big. He was not the first back on the field last week. It was Chris Rodriguez. Croskey-Merritt is just too hard to trust right now in this three-headed backfield. You just don’t know who will play the most. Plus, he gets a Falcons defense that has not allowed more than 110-rushing yards in any game. Atlanta allows the sixth fewest fantasy points to running backs.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Cardinals. Harrison continues to disappoint. He showed signs of life in Week 1 but done nothing his last two games. He has fewer than eight fantasy points two straight and had an awful drop last week that would have been a huge play. Harrison just isn’t getting it done and you have to wonder if he ever will. He’ll be a risk to use this week against Seattle. The Seahawks allow the second fewest fantasy points to receivers. Seattle has given up fewer than 210-passing yards each of their last two games.

SLEEPERS

Geno Smith, QB, Raiders. Smith has been just fine his first season with the Raiders. He has 22-plus fantasy points two of three games. His only poor showing was a Week 2 game against a very good Chargers defense. He gets his chances to air it out in this offense and is starting to gain a rapport with some of his options in the passing game. Look for him to top 20-plus fantasy points again this week against the Bears, a team that allows the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Bears have allowed at least 275-passing yards two straight games.

Oronde Gadsden, TE, Chargers. Gadsden played his first game of the season last week and played 26 percent of the snaps at tight end. He had five receptions for 46 yards on seven targets. He got a ton of volume in a short period of time on the field. It was a very encouraging first game for the young tight end. Gadsden could be emerging as the top tight end in this offense. He is worth a shot this week against the Giants, a team that allows the 11th most fantasy points to tight ends.

Woody Marks, RB, Texans. Marks played a season-high 48 percent of the snaps last week. Nick Chubb continues to do very little on the ground for the Texans. You have to like Marks’ chances to emerge as the lead back in Houston. He has made some plays with his chances and the entire Texans offense is struggling. Marks could be worth a shot this week against the Titans. Tennessee has really struggled to stop the run this year, allowing the third most fantasy points to running backs. The Titans have allowed at least 137-rushing yards all three games.

Braelon Allen, RB, Jets. Allen hasn’t had quite the start to the season his fantasy owners hoped. He has done little. The positive is he played his most snaps of the season last week (33 percent) and Breece Hall is struggling. It would not surprise if Allen starts getting more chances, especially this week against a bad Dolphins defense. Miami allows the sixth most fantasy points to running backs and have given up 150-plus rushing yards two of three games.

Romeo Doubs, WR, Packers. Doubs continues to lead the Packers receivers in playing time. He played a season-high 89 percent of the snaps last week. He isn’t piling up the fantasy numbers just yet but it seems a matter of time before he starts to have some big games. Doubs found the end zone in Week 2 and we think he could again this week against the Cowboys. Dallas is a mess against the pass and allows the most fantasy points to receivers. Doubs can get it done this week.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Eagles/Bucs, Saints/Bills, Colts/Rams, Ravens/Chiefs, Bears/Raiders, Packers/Cowboys.

Low Scoring Games: Vikings/Steelers, Titans/Texans, Jets/Dolphins.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 4

The Paur Report