Lineup Prep: Week 17

Wed Dec 24 11:06am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Brown is peaking at right time

This has become kind of my fantasy mantra but I wholeheartedly stand by it. So I will say it once again, “Don’t get too cute!” You have made it this far and I don’t want to see you screw it up. Go with the guys that got you there. I don’t want to see you switch out your core starters that got you to the big championship game this week for marginal players with great matchups. Don’t get too cute!

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

I would like to see Malik Willis get another shot to start next year. He has looked good with his chances this year with the Packers. Sometimes sitting and getting a chance to learn can really benefit a young quarterback. He was pretty rough with the Titans but quarterbacks can rebound. Just look at guys like Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield. Maybe Willis can revive his career like those guys. I’m not counting him out based on what I have seen.

Trevor Lawrence has officially arrived as an elite fantasy quarterback. He is fifth overall in quarterback scoring right now with a week to play. The numbers don’t lie. He has more points than guys like Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert and Baker Mayfield. New head coach Liam Coen has been a huge plus for Lawrence’s development. He just seems to grow each week. His game against the Broncos last week was so impressive, scoring four touchdowns while not turning the ball over against that defense on the road was something else. Wow.

The tight end position continues to be a tough one. Scoring at that position last week was pretty awful, especially from the supposed top options. For the most part, Trey McBride has been the only tight end you can trust on a weekly basis. Kyle Pitts has made huge strides and is second overall in tight end scoring, but his production has still been up and down. Brock Bowers isn’t having near the season as last year. Tyler Warren started great but hasn’t sustained that success. It has just been another frustrating season for many fantasy owners trying to figure out the position. Because of this, I would expect McBride to be a really high pick in drafts next year - maybe even a first-round pick.

I’m excited about some finishes to this year from players, which is going to vault their fantasy values for next year and rightly so. RJ Harvey is looking really good as the lead back for the Broncos. He is 10th overall in fantasy running back his last three games. I’m looking forward to him taking over the lead role from day one next year. Luther Burden missed the game last week but is coming on late in the year. I think he will be a huge part of that offense from day one. He was the best receiver in recent weeks, playing better than DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. And Tyler Shough looks like the real deal in New Orleans. He has little to work with but is producing at a high level. Shough is ninth in fantasy quarterback scoring his last three games. These are just a few young players that seem poised to be big fantasy factors in 2026.

There are a lot of receivers near the top of leaderboards that weren’t high draft picks this year. I think more so than in past seasons. Guys that are top 20 fantasy receivers right now include Courtland Sutton, Michael Pittman, Wan’Dale Robinson and Emeka Egbuka. I think it showed that you could find some real good value in the mid rounds of drafts this year when it comes to that receiver position. Plus, it shows, as always, that you need to find that mid-round gems if you want to have success in your fantasy leagues. I really think most fantasy leagues are won in the mid rounds of drafts.

I think one of the biggest surprises for me late in the year is the emergence of Tony Pollard once again. He has three straight 100-yard rushing games after not having one the entire season. I really thought he was done. But Pollard could end up being one of those surprise league winners. He did nothing nearly all season but has been a difference maker the last three games. Pollard is ninth overall in fantasy running back scoring his last three games.

HOT PLAYS

Javonte Williams, RB, Cowboys. Williams had his worst fantasy game of the season last week, scoring just 6.3 fantasy points. He ran nine times for just 34 yards. It was the first time all season he didn’t get double-digit carries in a game. Look for that to change this week against the Commanders. He ran 19 times for 116 yards and a touchdown against Washington in Week 7. He should get a big workload in this game. The Commanders allow the sixth most fantasy points to running backs and more than 200-rushing yards last week to the Eagles.

Jacoby Brissett, QB, Cardinals. Brissett had his worst fantasy game of the season last week, scoring just 13.65 fantasy points. It was a rough showing at a crucial time for his fantasy owners. Remember, he had 21-plus fantasy points every start before last week. We don’t think last week is the norm. He has a get-right matchup this week against the Bengals, a team that allows the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Bengals even allowed Quinn Ewers to throw for 260 yards in his first NFL start last week.

Jakobi Meyers, WR, Jaguars. Meyers had a rare down game last week, catching four passes for 45 yards. But he was targeted eight times and played a top Broncos pass defense. Don’t jump off the Meyers bandwagon after this game. Look for a big rebound in Week 17 against the Colts. Indy can’t stop the pass at all right now, allowing the third most fantasy points to receivers. Meyers scored a touchdown against the Colts in Week 14 and was targeted 10 times in that game.

Chase Brown, RB, Bengals. Brown is getting overlooked a little but had a vey good fantasy season. He has 10th overall in running back scoring and fifth his last three games. He is coming up big at the right time for his fantasy owners. Brown has at least 15 fantasy points eight straight games. His consistency is off the charts. Look for another good showing this week against the Cardinals, a team that allows the second-most fantasy points to running backs. Arizona has allowed 140-plus rushing yards three straight games.

Jauan Jennings, WR, 49ers. Jennings has found the end zone four straight games. He has emerged as the go-to receiver in the 49ers explosive offense. He is 10th overall in fantasy receiver scoring his last three games. He has 13-plus fantasy points six of seven games. He is about a must-start for fantasy teams, especially this week against the Bears. This game could be a shootout and the Bears allow the 10th most fantasy points to receivers.

COLD PLAYS

Quentin Johnston, WR, Chargers. Johnston returned to the starting lineup last week and had a big game, getting 104 yards and a touchdown. He was targeted just five times in the game, though, and has five or fewer targets four straight games. He is a bit of a boom or bust play at this point of the season. And we aren’t sure he makes many big plays this week against a great Texans defense. Houston allows the second fewest fantasy points to receivers. We wouldn’t start Johnston based off his big game last week. A repeat seems a stretch.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Steelers. Rodgers attempted a season-high 41 passes last week and played a fine game, throwing for 266 yards and a touchdown. He still didn’t help most fantasy teams, though, scoring 18.2 fantasy points. He has more than 20 fantasy points just three games all season. He is not worth using for fantasy teams, especially this week against the Browns. Cleveland is still playing really hard and allows the fourth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Rico Dowdle, RB, Panthers. Dowdle had a good first season for the Panthers but has cooled off lately. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points two of three games. He isn’t producing near his huge numbers from earlier this season, making him a hard player to trust for this week. Plus, he has a really tough matchup against a great Seahawks defense. Seattle has allowed fewer than 100-rushing yards eight of 15 games. If you have better options, go with them.

Breece Hall, RB, Jets. Hall is turning out to be one of the biggest fantasy busts this year. He is just 19th overall in fantasy running back scoring and 50th his last three games. He has three straight games with fewer than nine fantasy points. He is about no help to fantasy teams right now. We would not be surprised if it is more of the same for Hall this week against the Patriots. New England allows the third fewest fantasy points to running backs and held Hall to just 58-rushing yards in Week 11.

Khalil Shakir, WR, Bills. Shakir is normally the most dependable receiver for the Bills but even his numbers have been more erratic this year. He is a hard fantasy player to trust. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points three of four games and four of six. Shakir just isn’t getting the same volume he did last year, making him a tough fantasy play. And he gets the Eagles this week, a team that has allowed fewer than 150-passing yard four straight games.

SLEEPERS

Tre Tucker, WR, Raiders. Tucker has disappeared some since earlier this year. He remains the top receiver for the Raiders, though, and played an unheard of 100 percent of the snaps last week. He got six touches in the game - four receptions and two carries. If he gets that amount of work this week against the Giants, look for Tucker to make a big play or two. New York allows the seventh most fantasy points to receivers.

Michael Carter, RB, Cardinals. Carter got the start last week and ran 11 times for 65 yards. He produced well with his chances but didn’t get a ton of volume, meaning his fantasy numbers weren’t great. We like for him to do a little better this week against a bad Bengals defense. The Bengals allow the most fantasy points to running backs. Cincinnati has allowed 180-plus rushing yards two of three games.

Josh Johnson, QB, Commanders. If you are looking for a fill-in quarterback this week, Johnson might be worth a look. He is expected to start with Marcus Mariota banged up. Johnson is a deep sleeper but his track record suggests he is capable of the big game. He has produced some big games in his starts throughout his career. And a game against a terrible Cowboys secondary might be a good time to take a chance on him. Dallas allows the most fantasy points to quarterbacks and has allowed 250-plus passing yards three straight and four of five games.

Sean Tucker, RB, Bucs. Tucker has become the clear goal-line back for the Bucs. He has touchdowns three straight games. He is a touchdown-dependent player but can help fantasy teams if he finds the end zone. His chances of scoring this week seem pretty good against the Dolphins. Miami allowed 45 points last week and 28 the week before. Tucker could be worth taking a chance on in Week 17.

Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Panthers. Sanders scored his first touchdown of the season last week. He is having a bit of a disappointing fantasy season, scoring double-digit fantasy points just once. Sanders remains the top tight end in the offense, though, playing the most snaps at the position each of his last two games. He has two receptions each of those games. He might see an uptick in work this week against the Seahawks, a team that has struggled to stop the tight end this year. Seattle allows the fourth most fantasy points to tight ends.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low-scoring games for the coming week. In high-scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low-scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Cowboys/Commanders, Cardinals/Bengals, Jaguars/Colts, Bears/49ers, Rams/Falcons.

Low Scoring Games: Broncos/Chiefs, Texans/Chargers, Saints/Titans, Giants/Raiders.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 17

The Paur Report