Lineup Prep: Week 5

Tue Oct 6 11:19pm ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Warren is playing at high level

It is amazing how quickly things can change in fantasy land. Things are going your way. You are off to a 2-0 start. Those players you were targeting got off to fast starts. All is well. Then injuries happen and players have some dud games, causing you to lose your next two games (I might be speaking from experience). Just remember: things can change in a hurry. Don’t get too high or too low, especially early in the season. Trends are just starting to form. We are getting a better idea of what the current trends should be going forward. This should give you a better idea of just how good or bad your team might be.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .

I did not see this type of ascent coming from Bryce Young this year. He is proving me wrong. He has been so good. Young is third overall in fantasy quarterback scoring. He looks like a different quarterback out there. Young does such a good job of getting the ball out on time and in rhythm. He anticipates so well. Plus, he can improvise with the best of them when things don’t go on schedule in the pocket. He has really taken his game to a new level, and I don’t think it is a fluke. He took steps forward last year and continues to get better every week. Enjoy the ride. It has been special to watch.

You can’t ignore the huge game from Brian Robinson last week, scoring three times, but I still think he is a risky play for fantasy teams. This isn’t really a timeshare, and Bijan Robinson continues to get many of the goal-line chances. Plus, Robinson just doesn’t catch the ball. It is great to see him get double-digit carries three straight games, but his three total catches on the season make him a touchdown-dependent fantasy player. He’ll be a boom-or-bust play on a weekly basis.

I don’t know what is going on with Jeremiyah Love, but it is worrisome. You don’t like to hear his comments after the game, saying the coaching staff should keep him out late because he isn’t quite as explosive right now. You don’t know if he is just saying this to keep his coaches happy, but it seems strange. All I know is you would want your third overall pick in the draft out on the field with the game on the line late. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case last week. Hopefully, Love gets going sooner rather than later, but I’m not encouraged with what I’m seeing and hearing. Not good.

If I have any Colts that aren’t Jonathan Taylor, I would be worried, mainly because Daniel Jones is not playing very well. He isn’t playing near the level of last year. You have to wonder if returning from his major injury has impacted him. Jones is just 30th overall in fantasy quarterback scoring. He is making poor decisions with the ball and turning it over way too much. This does not bode well for Josh Downs or Tyler Warren. Until Jones gets it going again, I would temper my expectations for those pass catchers.

I’m not convinced Kyle Monangai is suddenly the lead back for the Bears after his huge 30-carry performance last week. He looked phenomenal in that game, and D’Andre Swift lost another fumble. But even with that said, it would not surprise me if Swift leads the Bears in carries once again this week. This remains more of a timeshare, and I don’t see either back emerging to start getting most of the work. This hurts the fantasy value of both players, but they still have plenty of value in this offense. Just don’t overvalue Monangai off one week.

The Lions are a defense to target on a weekly basis. This defense is a train wreck. They allow 31.8 points per game. The secondary continues to have all sorts of injury issues, and the team seems to be involved in shootouts on a weekly basis. So if you are looking for any streamers to grab with the upcoming bye weeks, look at the team the Lions are playing that week. It could pay off big.

I think this season is showing why you don’t want to use an earlier-round pick on a kicker. Many fantasy teams took Brandon Aubrey in the 10th or 11th round of drafts. After four games, Aubrey is seventh overall in fantasy kicker scoring. Meanwhile, Spencer Shrader, who didn’t even go drafted in many formats, is first overall in scoring. Matt Gay and Ryan Fitzgerald are also ahead of Aubrey right now. It is a long season, but these guys weren’t even drafted in many of my leagues. Kicker tends to fluctuate from season to season, and even some sure things don’t always pan out. It is a reason I have no shares of Aubrey on any of my fantasy teams.

News and Notes

Seahawks: It looked like the Seahawks were going to sign veteran running back Joe Mixon early in the week, but decided against it after apparently seeing something in his physical they did not like. Mixon did not play at all last year because of a mysterious foot injury.

HOT PLAYS

Jared Goff, QB, Lions

Goff continues to post some of the most consistent numbers in fantasy football. He is sixth overall in fantasy quarterback scoring and has at least 22 fantasy points in three straight games. The Lions defense is a mess, so the offense is being called on to post big weekly numbers if they hope to win games. Look for Goff to continue to post big numbers, especially this week against the Cardinals. Arizona allows the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and has allowed at least 31 points three straight games. Goff is a smash play in Week 5.

Jaylen Warren, RB, Steelers

Warren has started to excel as the lead back for the Steelers with Rico Dowdle sidelined. Warren has 120-plus total yards in two straight games. He has topped 15 fantasy points in each of those games. He is getting plenty of work as a runner and receiver, giving him a great floor. Look for more of the same success from Warren this week against a bad Colts defense. Indy allows the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs and is 26th overall against the run.

Aaron Jones, RB, Vikings

Jones has been a bright spot in a bad Vikings offense this year. He has seized most of the work with Jordan Mason sidelined. Jones topped 120 total yards last week and has 14-plus fantasy points in two straight games. He is getting more looks in the passing game, having nine receptions over those last two games. This has really improved his fantasy numbers. He should be set up for another good game this week against the Saints. New Orleans was torched on the ground by the Falcons last week and gives up the most fantasy points to running backs.

Michael Wilson, WR, Cardinals

Wilson is clearly the top target for the Cardinals at receiver. He has 30 targets over his last two games, catching 18 of those passes. He has 16-plus fantasy points in each of those last two games and double-digit fantasy points in three of four games. Wilson is racking up the looks and posting great fantasy numbers in the process. He should have a big game this week against the Lions. Detroit allows the second-most fantasy points to receivers and is dead last against the pass, allowing 304 passing yards per game.

Carnell Tate, WR, Titans

There aren’t many bright spots for the Titans right now, but Tate is one of them. He is emerging as the clear go-to target for Cam Ward. He is getting peppered with targets lately, having 21 over his last two games. He has 11-plus fantasy points in each of those games and is coming off his first 100-yard game of his career. You might think a matchup this week against Houston is a bad one for Tate, but the Texans are really struggling to stop the pass this year. Houston allows the most fantasy points to receivers and is just 28th overall against the pass, allowing 260 passing yards per game. Keep Tate in your lineup for Week 5.

COLD PLAYS

Sam Darnold, QB, Seahawks

Darnold played fine in victory last week against the Chargers but wasn’t much help to his fantasy owners. He had just 16 fantasy points. He isn’t exactly a sure thing for fantasy owners, posting some up-and-down numbers. It could be a down game for him this week. Darnold has a huge division matchup against the 49ers. San Francisco has turned the corner defensively this year and allows the seventh-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The 49ers have allowed fewer than 15 points in three of four games. Darnold might be best left on fantasy benches.

Cam Skattebo, RB, Giants

Skattebo isn’t having quite the fantasy season most hoped for at this point of the year. He has yet to top 15 fantasy points in a game. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points in two of three games. He has yet to have a 100-yard game and has 60 or fewer rushing yards in three straight games. Skattebo is not providing much help to fantasy teams right now. Look for another poor showing for Skattebo in Week 5. He gets the Commanders, a team that allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Washington allows the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game (93.5).

Keon Coleman, WR, Bills

Coleman is coming off a huge game, his best of the season. He hit the 100-yard mark, catching six passes for 116 yards. He has 12-plus fantasy points in two of three games. The problem is Coleman continues to be inconsistent. He has fewer than five fantasy points in two of four games. He continues to be up and down. Look for a down game this week against a good Rams secondary. The Rams are second overall against the pass, allowing 145.5 passing yards per game. Don’t get sucked into playing Coleman after his big game last week. He is no sure thing.

Tucker Kraft, TE, Packers

Kraft reached double-digit fantasy points last week for the first time all season. He finally broke out of his slump and was a help to fantasy teams. But don’t forget he still has more than 50 yards in just one of four games. He has been pretty ho-hum with the Packers receivers stepping up this year and making more plays. Look for Kraft to come back down to earth this week against a Bears secondary that is starting to play much, much better. Plus, Chicago has been great against the tight end, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. The Bears have allowed fewer than double-digit fantasy points to tight ends in three of four games.

Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints

Kamara was back to his old self last week, getting a chance to start once again. He found the end zone twice and scored 22.8 fantasy points. He also had five receptions in the game. Unfortunately, he ran for just 23 yards and his receiving yards were low (35). Kamara would not have been a help to fantasy teams if not for finding the end zone twice. We aren’t sure he scores this week against the Vikings, so he could be a risky play. Minnesota is seventh overall against the run and allows the fewest fantasy points to running backs.

SLEEPERS

Jacoby Brissett, QB, Cardinals

Brissett failed to reach 20 fantasy points last week and has reached that total just once in four games. His numbers have been down a little compared to last year. The positive is he has topped 275 passing yards in two of four games. He still has plenty of weapons to work with in the passing game and is capable of the big game any given week, especially this week against Detroit. The Lions defense is a mess. Detroit allows over 30 points per game and the most fantasy points to quarterbacks for the season.

Malachi Fields, WR, Giants

Fields scored his first NFL touchdown last week. He had career-best numbers, catching two passes for 52 yards and a touchdown on three targets. He has multiple receptions in every game this season. His numbers haven’t been impressive, but he seems to be getting better each week. Fields might be able to build on last week, playing the Commanders in Week 5. Washington allows the fourth-most fantasy points to receivers and ranks 25th overall against the pass. Fields could be worth a look for fantasy teams this week.

Keaton Mitchell, RB, Chargers

The Chargers backfield situation is a confusing one. It sure seems new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel has a thing for Mitchell, though. Mitchell played the most of any Chargers back last week and has played at least 37 percent of the snaps in two straight games. His usage is increasing, so fantasy owners should try to take advantage. Mitchell has 11-plus fantasy points in two straight games and seems likely to hit that mark again this week against the Broncos. Denver has struggled against the run this year, allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs.

Mike Gesicki, TE, Bengals

Gesicki has been a lot more consistent this year, having double-digit fantasy points in three of four games. He has gotten his weekly work and is producing. Plus, he has been a top target in the red zone for the Bengals. Gesicki could be set up for a few more targets this week with the Bengals banged up at receiver. Plus, Gesicki gets a Dolphins team that allows the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Miami has allowed 20-plus fantasy points to tight ends in two of four games. Consider Gesicki a TE1 for Week 5.

Darius Cooper, WR, Eagles

Cooper played the most snaps of his season last week, being on the field 90 percent of the time. He had not played more than 50 percent of the snaps in a game all season before last week. And he took advantage of his chances, catching three passes for 33 yards and two touchdowns on seven targets. Injuries have opened the door for Cooper to play more, and that could be the case for him again this week. Cooper could be worth a look for fantasy teams in Week 5. The Jaguars allow the ninth-most fantasy points to receivers and rank just 31st overall against the pass, allowing 280.3 passing yards per game.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week, we'll take a look at some of the high- and low-scoring games for the coming week. In high-scoring affairs, get your marginal players from those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. In the low-scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High-Scoring Games

Bucs/Cowboys, Raiders/Patriots, Lions/Cardinals, 49ers/Seahawks, Bills/Rams.

Low-Scoring Games

Browns/Jets, Texans/Titans, Broncos/Chargers.

Bye Weeks

Chiefs, Panthers.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 5

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