RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 5
Fri Oct 9 8:22am ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer
The Chiefs and Panthers will be on a bye during Week 5. Combine that with several teams dealing with key injuries, and we have an interesting DFS slate on the horizon. Let’s highlight some players to consider at each position, as well as a few to avoid based on their matchups.
Quarterbacks
Jacoby Brissett, ARI vs. DET ($5,600): Brissett only threw for 166 yards and was picked off three times by the Giants last week. On the bright side, he threw two touchdowns and attempted at least 35 passes for the third time this season. Expect him to throw a lot in this matchup, given that both the Cardinals and Lions allow at least 29.3 points per game. The Lions have also allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, further tilting the scales in Brissett’s favor.
Jameis Winston, NYG at WAS ($4,800): Winston was picked off twice by the Cardinals in Week 4, but he looked much more comfortable while throwing for 250 yards and three touchdowns. Never one to shy away from taking risks, he has an average target depth of 9.2 yards this season. The Commanders have allowed 11 passing touchdowns and the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Winston could provide significant value at his cheap salary.
Player to Avoid
Tyler Shough, NO vs. MIN ($6,100): It’s a little unsettling to recommend staying away from Shough, given how well he has performed. He has been a fantasy-friendly option, throwing for 1,203 yards and nine touchdowns over four games. He has completed 67.2% of his pass attempts, with an average target depth of 8.8 yards. However, the Vikings’ defense can make even the best quarterbacks look underwhelming. They have allowed just 12.8 points per game and have recorded more interceptions (four) than passing touchdowns allowed (three). This is a week to consider avoiding Shough.
Running Backs
Chase Brown, CIN at MIA ($6,900): Brown ran just nine times for 10 yards against the Jaguars last week. However, he made up for it by catching 11 passes for 71 yards. That marked his third game of the season with at least five targets. He could be heavily involved in the passing game again Sunday, with Ja’Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (adductor) dealing with injuries. That makes Brown an appealing DFS option against a Dolphins defense that has allowed the fifth-most yards per target to running backs.
Aaron Jones Sr., MIN at NO ($6,500): Jones appeared in this column last week and delivered, rushing 20 times for 94 yards against the Dolphins. He also caught four of eight targets for 34 yards. Over his last two games, he has nine receptions for 68 yards. The Saints have allowed nine rushing touchdowns to running backs, two more than any other team in the league. They have also surrendered a whopping 5.23 yards per carry to the position. This is another excellent matchup for Jones.
Player to Avoid
Tony Pollard, TEN vs. HOU ($5,600): Pollard scored his first touchdown of the season in a loss to the Ravens last week. However, he was limited to just 48 yards on 16 carries. That marked the third time this season he has finished with fewer than 65 rushing yards in a game. He has also totaled just eight catches for 24 yards. Don’t expect much upside against the Texans, who have limited running backs to 3.6 yards per carry.
Wide Receivers
Malik Nabers, NYG at WAS ($6,300): Nabers benefited from Winston getting back on track last week, catching six of seven targets for 112 yards and a touchdown. As he gets further removed from his torn ACL, Nabers has looked more comfortable and explosive. He is by far the Giants’ best wide receiver and should continue to lead the team in targets. The Commanders are tied for the fourth-most receptions allowed to wide receivers, making a Winston-Nabers stack appealing.
Roman Wilson, PIT vs. IND ($3,700): Despite DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr. being ahead of him on the depth chart, Wilson has carved out a significant role for the Steelers. He has received exactly six targets in all four games, which is even more noteworthy considering his average target depth of 16.3 yards. He could see even more targets this week with Pittman (foot) out. The Colts have allowed the fourth-most yards per target to wide receivers, making Wilson well worth considering at his cheap salary.
Player to Avoid
Zay Flowers, BAL at ATL ($7,000): After torching the Titans for eight receptions, 118 yards and a touchdown last week, Flowers isn't in this category because he is struggling. The concern is that Lamar Jackson (ankle) is unlikely to play against the Falcons. His replacement will be Tyler Huntley, who has thrown for more than 230 yards in a game just once in his career. Flowers is too risky at his salary.
Tight Ends
Trey McBride, ARI vs. DET ($6,700): Don’t panic about McBride finishing with just 31 receiving yards against the Giants last week. He still caught seven passes and was targeted 12 times. He has received at least 10 targets in every game this season. That type of workload gives him tremendous upside against the Lions, who have allowed the most receptions and touchdowns to tight ends.
Mike Gesicki, CIN at MIA ($4,100): With his touchdown against the Jaguars, Gesicki has now scored in three of four games. He could see additional targets if Chase and/or Higgins are out, which is appealing given his average target depth of 10.8 yards. The Dolphins have allowed 10.7 yards per target to tight ends, the highest mark in the NFL. For those looking to differentiate their lineups by avoiding McBride, Gesicki could provide solid value.
Player to Avoid
Dalton Kincaid, BUF at LAR ($5,100): Kincaid opened the season with 12 receptions for 225 yards and a touchdown over his first two games. In his next two games, he combined for just three catches and 45 yards. Even more concerning, he was targeted only five times during that span. The Rams have allowed just 12 receptions to tight ends all season. That tough matchup, combined with Kincaid’s potentially limited workload, makes him someone to avoid this week.
Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.
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The Paur Report
Las Vegas Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak fielded questions from the media about the potential of starting rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza in the near future, according to Sam Warren of The Athletic. Asked when he would start thinking about making a change at quarterback, Kubiak said, "I think at this point, we're thinking about everything. How to fix our problems, how to fix our issues in the red zone, in the third quarter. Personnel, scheme, we've got to talk about all of it." The first-year head coach didn't directly offer a timeline for the shift from Kirk Cousins to Mendoza, but he also didn't commit to Cousins starting in Week 8. Cousins led the Raiders to a 3-0 start, but the team has gone 0-4 in four games since then. Mendoza saw a little bit of action in Week 6 during garbage time against the Patriots, completing six of his eight pass attempts for 48 yards. Cousins hasn't looked terrible by any means, racking up 16 touchdowns and just five interceptions through seven games, but a quarterback change might inject life into the team amid a four-game losing streak. The plan all along was for Mendoza to spend around half the season learning behind Cousins, so it feels like a natural transition point could be coming soon. The Raiders will hit the road for a two-game road trip before returning home against the Seahawks on Nov. 15 in Week 10.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett is expected to remain the team's starting quarterback moving forward. Following Sunday's Week 7 loss, head coach Mike LaFleur confirmed that Brissett will remain the starter, per Darren Urban. Brissett completed 27-of-48 passing attempts for 272 yards with a touchdown and zero interceptions during Sunday's loss to the Denver Broncos. Overall, this season, Brissett has thrown for 1,328 passing yards with nine touchdowns and six interceptions. The Cardinals dropped to 2-5 on the year following Sunday's loss. We could see a change at quarterback here soon if things don't change in Arizona. It wouldn't be shocking to see the Cardinals turn to rookie Carson Beck at some point, but for now, Brissett will remain the starter ahead of the Week 8 matchup against the Dallas Cowboys.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (chest) caught four of his seven targets for 48 yards during Sunday's Week 7 win over the Arizona Cardinals. Waddle totaled 8.8 PPR points in the effort, which is his third-highest fantasy output of the season. It has been a rough start to the season for Waddle from a fantasy perspective, as he ranks outside the top 36 wide receivers in scoring so far. Denver has prioritized running the ball this season, leaving fewer opportunities for the team's wide receivers and tight ends. In fact, even as Bo Nix had a solid game on Sunday, he still completed a modest 15 passes for 222 yards, and four of those completions went to running backs. It's also worth noting that Waddle picked up an ailment on Sunday, as he reportedly injured his chest in the fourth quarter and was quickly listed as questionable to return. At this point, it's too early to tell whether the injury will impact his availability for Week 8 against the Chiefs. Next week's divisional matchup could prompt the Broncos to throw the ball more, but it's also worth noting that Waddle was held to just one catch in his last game against Kansas City (Week 1).
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos rookie running back Jonah Coleman made his return to the field during Sunday's Week 7 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. He missed the previous four games while on Injured Reserve due to a sprained ankle that he suffered in the Week 2 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Coleman was finally back on the field for the first time since suffering a sprained ankle ahead of Week 3. The rookie back carried the ball nine times for 54 yards, while hauling in two receptions for 15 additional yards in the win. After the game, head coach Sean Payton said that the team will need to get Coleman more touches going forward. It sounds like the Broncos were easing him back in, but will now look to give Coleman an expanded role going forward. This is great news for Coleman's fantasy value, but it also means that J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey will likely see reduced roles now.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider said that the team is being "careful" with running back Zach Charbonnet (knee), even though he is ahead of schedule in his recovery. Schneider told play-by-play announcer Steve Raible (via Brady Henderson of ESPN.com) that Charbonnet had a great week of practice and that the team hopes he'll be ready for Week 8 against the Chicago Bears. The 25-year-old is working his way back from a torn ACL that he suffered in last year's playoffs, and while there was some optimism that he'd be able to play this week against the Kansas City Chiefs, the team chose not to activate him from the PUP list. Emanuel Wilson will get at least one more week to lead the backfield, while George Holani continues to occupy the backup role as a low-end RB3/flex in deeper fantasy leagues. Once Charbonnet does return to action, he'll rank as a weekly RB2 option in fantasy football.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Texans wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. had a six yard touchdown catch in a loss to the Giants. Dynasty Analysis: The entire Houston passing game was only able to post 153 yards on the day, so dynasty managers shouldn't get too worked up over him catching just the one pass. Still, we're going to need to see more from him moving forward to start working him back into fantasy lineups.
Dynasty | Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow completed 22-of-30 passes for 292 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in a blowout win over the Ravens. Dynasty Analysis: Burrow started out slowly as Cincinnati trailed 13-0 at the half. The second half was a completely different story as the Bengals outscored Baltimore 35-0. With eight touchdowns and no interceptions over his past two games, Burrow is back to being a top-5 option at the position. While other quarterbacks may be getting more attention, Burrow is starting to really perform.
Dynasty | Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins caught six passes for 148 yards and scored a touchdown in Cincinnati's win over Baltimore. Dynasty Analysis: Like the rest of the offense, Higgins started out slowly but caught fire in the second half. He nearly scored a second touchdown on a long pass but dynasty managers won't complain much as Higgins posted his second monster game in the past three weeks. While always behind Ja'Marr Chase in the pecking order, Joe Burrow is currently playing at an elite level and more than capable of helping both of them put up monster numbers. Higgins is essentially a lineup lock at this point.
Dynasty | Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers caught eight passes for 137 yards and a touchdown in a loss to the Bengals. Dynasty Analysis: The Ravens and Flowers did most of their damage in the first half as they just got boat raced after halftime. Regardless, Flowers put up another monster game, further proving he's one of the game's truly premier receivers in the process. He now has six double-digit fantasy games in his six contests this year and is showing no signs of slowing down. Flowers is still undervalued in dynasty leagues but that's starting to change by the week.
Dynasty | Giants tight end Isaiah Likely had two catches for 12 yards in a win over Houston. Dynasty Analysis: Likely has been great this year but it's also been a little hit and miss as he has three games with 23 or more fantasy points but also three others now with nine or fewer. While far from a boom or bust option, Likely still isn't quite as consistent as dynasty managers would like. Regardless, he'll be a top three option moving forward in his breakout season.
Dynasty | Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield completed 7-of-11 passes for 64 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions in a win over Carolina. Dynasty Analysis: If you looked at the stat line, you would have thought Baker re-injured himself or the Bucs were blown out. Nope. Instead, they ran for a whopping 258 yards and forced four turnovers in a demolition of the Panthers. On the plus side, Mayfield left the game unscathed and should be good to go moving forward. Expect better days from Mayfield moving forward but he should still be considered more of a QB2 than a QB1 until further notice.
Dynasty | Bucs running back Bucky Irving had 106 rushing yards and two touchdowns in a win over the Panthers. Dynasty Analysis: He added one catch for four yards. The Bucs just smoked Carolina on the ground this week, rushing for 258 yards on the day. Irving was the big weapon and now has four touchdowns over his past three games. There are a lot of other running backs who get headlines but Irving may be prepping for a big second half of the season.
Dynasty | Panthers wide receiver Jalen Coker had one catch for nine yards in a loss to the Bucs. Dynasty Analysis: The entire Panthers team was overmatched and nobody did much on offense for the Panthers today. This included Coker, who caught just one of his four targets on the day. Dynasty managers shouldn't panic too much as Coker has proven to be a breakout performer this year. Still, this was a pretty big buzzkill that will pause his dynasty ranking from moving up much this week.
Dynasty | Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis completed 14-of-21 passes for 208 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in a win over the Jets. Dynasty Analysis: He added 37 rushing yards and another score on the ground. Willis desperately needed to come out of the bye playing better and he had his best day of the year by far today. While there are still serious questions about his long-term future, this is the player the Dolphins thought they signed in the off-season. Time will tell if he can keep that up but Willis' dynasty value plummet will stop for a week.
Dynasty | Dolphins running back Ollie Gordon had 103 rushing yards and a touchdown in a win over the Jets. Dynasty Analysis: Gordon has certainly made the most of his opportunity to start with Devon Achane out for the season and has made Jaylen Wright a distant second on the depth chart in the process. Gordon has always had talent so this isn't shocking. Still, Gordon's play has vaulted him into RB2 territory and while his long-term future is in doubt, he makes for a great short-term pickup in dynasty leagues at the moment.
Dynasty | Dolphins wide receiver Caleb Douglas had two catches for 70 yards and two touchdowns in a win over the Jets. Dynasty Analysis: Douglas only had three targets on the day but you could say he made the most of them. While the volume is still sketchy, it's hard to look at this depth chart and not see Douglas looks like the best receiver on the team at this point. His rookie ranking and dynasty value should creep up again this week as shown the ability to make plays.
Dynasty | Jets wide receiver Omar Cooper had five catches for 115 yards and a touchdown in a loss to the Dolphins. Dynasty Analysis: After dealing with an early season injury, Cooper has returned with a fury the past two weeks with 11 catches for 218 yards and two scores the past two weeks. A true playmaker, Cooper is showing everyone his transition to the NFL from Indiana doesn't look too tough. With back-to-back monster performances, Cooper is going to be in a lot of lineups moving forward as Geno Smith has quickly made a great connection with him.
Dynasty | Colts quarterback Daniel Jones completed just 13-of-22 passes 108 yards with no touchdowns and an interception in a loss to the Vikings. Dynasty Analysis: Minnesota can make just about any quarterback look pretty mortal but Jones has been bad all season. With the Colts sitting at 2-5 and Jones failing to spark the offense, a quarterback controversy could be in the cards here soon. Indianapolis is searching for answers and running out of time if they want to save their season. Even worse, the Colts don't even own their own draft pick this year as it gets relayed to the Jets as part of the Sauce Gardner trade. Jones himself needs to pick it up here soon or he's going to be replaced. Jones' dynasty value is sinking by the week.
Dynasty | Titans running back Tony Pollard had 129 rushing yards and three touchdowns in a loss to the Browns. Dynasty Analysis: The Titans offense finally got going and Pollard was a big reason why. When you consider he had a fourth touchdown called back by a penalty, this was the biggest day we've seen from Pollard in years. There are few true bell cow running backs and Pollard is one of the most undervalued in the league. There are some trade rumors swirling around him as Tennessee is currently 1-6 and this won't hurt. He'll remain a RB2 moving forward and decent target for a contending team.
Dynasty | Browns rookie wide receiver KC Concepcion had eight catches on ten targets for 129 yards in a win over the Titans. Dynasty Analysis: Concepcion had a major breakout game but it could have been ever better as he couldn't haul in a perfectly thrown ball for what could have been a long touchdown. Despite that gaffe, Concepcion just looks faster than most every other receiver on the field most weeks and it's clear his talent is worthy of keeping him in the NFL for a long time. Any buying window on Concepcion just got a little tighter.
