Week 1 FNF: Chiefs-Chargers Preview, Props, Prediction

Fri Sep 5 3:20pm ET
Field Level Media

Brazil landed a marquee matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers playing "host" to the Kansas City Chiefs in Sao Paulo on Friday night.

It's a critical AFC West rivalry game to begin the season for both teams, which has drawn some criticism for taking place outside of the United States in Week 1. The Chargers are attempting to close the game between them and the division-dominating Chiefs, who swept last season's meetings to run their winning streak in the rivalry to seven.

ODDS AND TRENDS

The Chiefs are a consensus 3-point favorite, but the line was sitting at 3.5 points at several sportsbooks Friday afternoon, with extra juice on the Chargers at +3.5. BetRivers reported 64 percent of the total bets and 63 percent of the spread money has backed Kansas City.

The Chiefs' -186 moneyline has been even more popular, drawing 74 and 71 percent of the action, respectively.

The 45-point Over/Under has seen the Over backed by 67 percent of the bets and 83 percent of the money.

PROP PICKS

--Over 46.5 Total Points (-109 at BetRivers): The total has shifted from 45 points with the Over being backed by 67 percent of the total tickets and 83 percent of the money. The book reported that each of the Chiefs' past eight season openers against AFC opponents have gone Over the total points line, while Kansas City has covered the spread in five of their past six season openers against AFC teams.

--Chargers QB Justin Herbert 200+ Passing Yards (-272 at DraftKings): This has been the most popular player prop for this game at the book, despite Los Angeles being expected to employ a run-heavy gameplan. Herbert averaged 196 passing yards in two meetings last year while throwing two touchdowns against no interceptions. Despite a rough outing in the playoff loss, Herbert did average 303.7 passing yards over the final three regular-season games.

INSIDE EDGE

Inside Edge's Remarkable engine has numbers to support the notion that rookie running back Omarion Hampton and veteran Najee Harris will be a focal point of Los Angeles' gameplan as long as the game is close. The Chargers were 9-0 last season when running for 100-plus yards as a team.

However, the Chiefs also led the league in allowing only 93.7 rushing yards per game last season, per Inside Edge. That includes limiting opponents to a 34 percent "success rate" on rushing attempts in the first quarter.

Don't expect a lot of production out of Hampton and Harris in the passing game -- Chargers running backs averaged a league-low 15.9 receiving yards per game last season.

KEY STATS

In 12 career games against the Chargers, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has 3,270 passing yards and 27 touchdowns with seven interceptions. He's only thrown more TD passes against one opponent: the Raiders (33). His last loss to the Chargers came in 2021: A 30-24 defeat with three TDs and two interceptions.

THE NEWS

The Chargers featured one of the NFL's best defenses last year in coach Jim Harbaugh's first season as their head coach, then invested in multiple running backs in the offseason to further his preferred old-school approach.

After signing Harris in free agency, the Chargers used a first-round pick to select Hampton. Known for his speed, Hampton wowed Harbaugh with his vision and ability to pick through traffic in the preseason. Harris missed training camp and preseason due to a July 4 eye injury, but Harbaugh said after Wednesday's walk-through in Brazil that Harris will play.

"He says he's ready, and he looks ready to go," Harbaugh said.

Harbaugh has zero concerns with his backfield in general. He said he believes Herbert's biggest weakness lies in coaches and teammates failing to reach the quarterback's level.

"Everything he does -- conditioning, everything -- it's too easy (for him). You have to try to pull him back," Harbaugh said. "It's clear and obvious, all of us have to pick it up to get on his level."

Herbert had 23 touchdowns and three interceptions in his first season under Harbaugh. The Chiefs surrendered two total TD passes and sacked him five times in their two 2024 meetings.

Five weeks after reporting to training camp, Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo said he can sense energy on the rise for a "quote-unquote real game."

Spagnuolo gave new cornerback Kristian Fulton, a free-agent addition from the Chargers who practiced daily against Ladd McConkey last year, the floor at the first defensive meeting of the week to stress the importance of knowing McConkey's whereabouts and how he impacts the Los Angeles game plan.

"The first slide I put up last week said, ‘All 22 need to be aware of where 15 is,'" Spagnuolo said of placing McConkey on the top of the scouting report this week. "I asked the guys if (they) knew what we mean. It meant all 22 eyeballs. Every one of them, the D-line included, need to know where he is. We feel that strongly. That's going to be a major, major focus."

McConkey had 1,346 yards and 91 receptions between the regular season and playoffs last season to set team records. He'll be Herbert's lead target even with Keenan Allen back in the fold after one season in Chicago. Allen owns the Chargers' franchise marks with 904 receptions and 10,530 yards in the uniform.

With Rashee Rice suspended for six weeks by the NFL, the pecking order at wide receiver is not as clear for the Chiefs. Xavier Worthy, a first-round pick in 2024, developed into the No. 1 option for Mahomes in 2024 with the speed to get deep. Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton, and rookie fourth-round pick Jalen Royals are the other options for Kansas City, along with tight end Travis Kelce.

INJURY REPORT

Chiefs coach Andy Reid said Brown (foot, ankle) was able to "do everything" in practice on Tuesday while Royals (knee) remained out.

Chargers right guard Mekhi Becton has been added to the injury report as questionable due to an illness. Becton, 26, has started 45 of the 46 career games in which he has played with the Jets and Philadelphia Eagles since being selected by New York with the 11th overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft.

If he's unable to go, Jamaree Salyer, who has appeared in 51 games and started 35 over the past three seasons for the Chargers, is listed as Becton's backup.

THEY SAID IT

"I think it's sweet we get to play internationally first game of the season. That's a challenge for us as a team. Division rivalry. We also get a chance to test where we're at." --Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones. Jones said he's bringing two TVs -- a new LG model that can be checked -- and a serious appetite with fingers crossed he's permitted to sample plenty of the culinary options.

PREDICTION

The Chargers believe they have at least shrunk the gap a bit but until they can actually end the 3 1/2-year losing streak, the Chiefs still enter with a massive edge in confidence. It may be a lower scoring game than some expect with Los Angeles pounding the ball away at one of the league's elite run defenses, but Mahomes has an uncanny way of finding the end zone late to pull victories out of the jaws of defeat. --Chiefs 23, Chargers 20

Week 1 FNF: Chiefs-Chargers Preview, Props, Prediction

The Paur Report